Typical TBD Guy Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 If the Bills finish 8-8, they would be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. If the Bills finish 9-7, they would need all 3 of the following scenarios to occur to make the playoffs: 1. Ravens lose their last 2 games 2. Broncos lose their last 2 games (OR lose 1 of 2 in the unlikely situation that the Bills lost to the 49ers but beat the Steelers to get to 9-7) 3. Jags lose their last 2 games If the Bills finish 10-6, they would need 3 of the 4 following scenarios to occur to make the playoffs: 1. Jets lose their last 2 games 2. Ravens lose 1 of their last 2 games 3. Broncos lose 1 of their last 2 games 4. Jags lose 1 of their last 2 games [EDIT: Bills need 3 of those 4 scenarios to get the #6 seed, all 4 scenarios for the #5 seed.] [EDIT: Don't worry about 3- or 4- or 5-way tie scenarios because we will always finish behind the Ravens and Jags and Broncos in every conceivable 10-6 tie scenario yet will always finish ahead of the Jets; i.e., everything typed above is unconditionally true.] And here's a schedule of the remaining games of any relevance to us: (Note: * or *** means that game directly affects our mathematical chances of making the playoffs) Week 15: Monday night game: Dolphins (H) over Patriots - could affect how the Steelers play us in Week 17 Week 16: Saturday, 8:30pm game: Titans (H) over Broncos * 1pm games: Steelers (H) over Ravens * Texans over Jags (H) * Chargers vs. Colts (H) - depends on who you'd want to play in the 1st round 4pm games: Bills over 49ers (H) *** Patriots over Jets (H) * Week 17 1pm games: Bills (H) over Steelers *** Fins over Ravens (H) * Rams (H) over Jets * 49ers over Patriots (H) - could be relevant only for playoff seeding 4pm games: Chiefs vs. Chargers (H) - irrelevant if top 2 AFC seeds are clinched by this point Raiders (H) over Jags * Colts over Broncos (H) * And here's my probability listing: (Note: for reasons of sanity, I've divided the probabilities only into 5 increments: heavily favored win - 80%, likely win - 65%, too close to call - 50%, likely loss - 35%, heavily favored loss - 20%] Bills over 49ers in Week 16: 80% Bills over Steelers in Week 17: 50% (assuming Steelers will have something to play for by this game - very likely) Jets over Pats in Week 16: 35% Jets over Rams in Week 17: 65% Ravens over Steelers in Week 16: 35% Ravens over Fins in Week 17: 80% Broncos over Titans in Week 16: 65% Broncos over Colts in Week 17: 80% (assuming Colts have nothing to play for by this game - a very likely situation) Jags over Texans in Week 16: 65% Jags over Raiders in Week 17: 65% So based on these probabilities, here are the chances of the Bills making the playoffs: (Note: the chances of the Bills making the playoffs at 9-7 is about .1% and therefore statistically irrelevant) Chance of Bills finishing 10-6: 40% Chance of Jets losing both games: 22.75% Chance of Ravens losing 1 game: 72% Chance of Broncos losing 1 game: 48% Chance of Jags losing 1 game: 57.75% Total chance of Bills getting the necessary outside help: 29.97% Total chance of Bills making the playoffs: 11.99% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YOOOOOO Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Man Damn those Packers..... Now we gotta pray the Rams remember how to play the game week 17 against the Jets and that either of the Texans or Raiders can pull the big upset.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lothar Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 very nice kelso - I know those percentages are somewhat arbitrary so the resulting odds feed off those numbers but I too now give our Bills about a 1 in 3 chance - assuming we win our last 2. This is down from about 50% given Green Bay's tribute to the postal service (mailing it in). I really think it's up to the Jags now - I don't see Denver playing well enough to hold off Indy no matter what the situation. If the Bills finish 8-8, they would be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. If the Bills finish 9-7, they would need all 3 of the following scenarios to occur to make the playoffs: 1. Ravens lose their last 2 games 2. Broncos lose their last 2 games (OR lose 1 of 2 in the unlikely situation that the Bills lost to the 49ers but beat the Steelers to get to 9-7) 3. Jags lose their last 2 games If the Bills finish 10-6, they would need 3 of the 4 following scenarios to occur to make the playoffs: 1. Jets lose their last 2 games 2. Ravens lose 1 of their last 2 games 3. Broncos lose 1 of their last 2 games 4. Jags lose 1 of their last 2 games And here's a schedule of the remaining games of any relevance to us: (Note: * or *** means that game directly affects our mathematical chances of making the playoffs) Week 15: Monday night game: Dolphins (H) over Patriots - could affect how the Steelers play us in Week 17 Week 16: Saturday, 8:30pm game: Titans (H) over Broncos * 1pm games: Steelers (H) over Ravens * Texans over Jags (H) * Chargers vs. Colts (H) - depends on who you'd want to play in the 1st round 4pm games: Bills over 49ers (H) *** Patriots over Jets (H) * Week 17 1pm games: Bills (H) over Steelers *** Fins over Ravens (H) * Rams (H) over Jets * 49ers over Patriots (H) - could be relevant only for playoff seeding 4pm games: Chiefs vs. Chargers (H) - irrelevant if top 2 AFC seeds are clinched by this point Raiders (H) over Jags * Colts over Broncos (H) * And here's my probability listing: (Note: for reasons of sanity, I've divided the probabilities only into 5 increments: heavily favored win - 80%, likely win - 65%, too close to call - 50%, likely loss - 35%, heavily favored loss - 20%] Bills over 49ers in Week 16: 80% Bills over Steelers in Week 17: 50% (assuming Steelers will have something to play for by this game - very likely) Jets over Pats in Week 16: 35% Jets over Rams in Week 17: 65% Ravens over Steelers in Week 16: 35% Ravens over Fins in Week 17: 80% Broncos over Titans in Week 16: 65% Broncos over Colts in Week 17: 80% (assuming Colts have nothing to play for by this game - a very likely situation) Jags over Texans in Week 16: 65% Jags over Raiders in Week 17: 65% So based on these probabilities, here are the chances of the Bills making the playoffs: (Note: the chances of the Bills making the playoffs at 9-7 is about .1% and therefore statistically irrelevant) Chance of Bills finishing 10-6: 40% Chance of Jets losing both games: 22.75% Chance of Ravens losing 1 game: 72% Chance of Broncos losing 1 game: 48% Chance of Jags losing 1 game: 57.75% Total chance of Bills getting the necessary outside help: 29.97% Total chance of Bills making the playoffs: 11.99% 168360[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jarthur31 Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Favre should retire now; he's embarrassing himself more each week. Before, now one could win in Lambeau but now, it's not so hard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Griswold Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Good analysis. I nominate this post for "pinning" since this will be asked, and dicussed a 1000 times this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick in* england Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Good stuff... only 11% chance huh... Thats good enough for me - I am high as a kite on the Bills right now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olivier in france Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 well 11% ... it's even better than what i thought! and let's remember than 5 weeks ago that number was about 0.01%! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest John Nash Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Nice work Kelso. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BF_in_Indiana Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 If the Bills finish 8-8, they would be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. If the Bills finish 9-7, they would need all 3 of the following scenarios to occur to make the playoffs: 1. Ravens lose their last 2 games 2. Broncos lose their last 2 games (OR lose 1 of 2 in the unlikely situation that the Bills lost to the 49ers but beat the Steelers to get to 9-7) 3. Jags lose their last 2 games If the Bills finish 10-6, they would need 3 of the 4 following scenarios to occur to make the playoffs: 1. Jets lose their last 2 games 2. Ravens lose 1 of their last 2 games 3. Broncos lose 1 of their last 2 games 4. Jags lose 1 of their last 2 games [EDIT: Bills need 3 of those 4 scenarios to get the #6 seed, all 4 scenarios for the #5 seed.] [EDIT: Don't worry about 3- or 4- or 5-way tie scenarios because we will always finish behind the Ravens and Jags and Broncos in every conceivable 10-6 tie scenario yet will always finish ahead of the Jets; i.e., everything typed above is unconditionally true.] And here's a schedule of the remaining games of any relevance to us: (Note: * or *** means that game directly affects our mathematical chances of making the playoffs) Week 15: Monday night game: Dolphins (H) over Patriots - could affect how the Steelers play us in Week 17 Week 16: Saturday, 8:30pm game: Titans (H) over Broncos * 1pm games: Steelers (H) over Ravens * Texans over Jags (H) * Chargers vs. Colts (H) - depends on who you'd want to play in the 1st round 4pm games: Bills over 49ers (H) *** Patriots over Jets (H) * Week 17 1pm games: Bills (H) over Steelers *** Fins over Ravens (H) * Rams (H) over Jets * 49ers over Patriots (H) - could be relevant only for playoff seeding 4pm games: Chiefs vs. Chargers (H) - irrelevant if top 2 AFC seeds are clinched by this point Raiders (H) over Jags * Colts over Broncos (H) * And here's my probability listing: (Note: for reasons of sanity, I've divided the probabilities only into 5 increments: heavily favored win - 80%, likely win - 65%, too close to call - 50%, likely loss - 35%, heavily favored loss - 20%] Bills over 49ers in Week 16: 80% Bills over Steelers in Week 17: 50% (assuming Steelers will have something to play for by this game - very likely) Jets over Pats in Week 16: 35% Jets over Rams in Week 17: 65% Ravens over Steelers in Week 16: 35% Ravens over Fins in Week 17: 80% Broncos over Titans in Week 16: 65% Broncos over Colts in Week 17: 80% (assuming Colts have nothing to play for by this game - a very likely situation) Jags over Texans in Week 16: 65% Jags over Raiders in Week 17: 65% So based on these probabilities, here are the chances of the Bills making the playoffs: (Note: the chances of the Bills making the playoffs at 9-7 is about .1% and therefore statistically irrelevant) Chance of Bills finishing 10-6: 40% Chance of Jets losing both games: 22.75% Chance of Ravens losing 1 game: 72% Chance of Broncos losing 1 game: 48% Chance of Jags losing 1 game: 57.75% Total chance of Bills getting the necessary outside help: 29.97% Total chance of Bills making the playoffs: 11.99% 168360[/snapback] I just have to correct you on something here. The Bills don't need the Broncos to lose anymore games either. The tiebreakers go like this. 1. Head to Head (didn't play) 2. Division record (both 3-3) 3. Common Opponents (Buffalo is 3-2 against common Denver opponents, Denver is 2-3) and neither play any common opponents the rest of the year. So Buffalo is in fact sitting like this right now. NY 10-4 Jacksonville 8-6 Baltimore 8-6 Buffalo 8-6 Denver 8-6 In reality it comes down to this. If Baltimore and Jacksonville lose next week, the Bills control their own destiny. Right now on NFL.com we are seeded behind Denver because of the multi way tie, but the head to head tie breaker works just like I posted above. So the two teams in front of us have to lose anyway for us to get in because they both beat us head to head, and if they do then the tie breaker becomes head to head with us and Denver. We win the tie breaker. So our hopes are a little better than we had thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kgun5 Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 I just have to correct you on something here. The Bills don't need the Broncos to lose anymore games either. The tiebreakers go like this. 1. Head to Head (didn't play) 2. Division record (both 3-3) 3. Common Opponents (Buffalo is 3-2 against common Denver opponents, Denver is 2-3) and neither play any common opponents the rest of the year. So Buffalo is in fact sitting like this right now. NY 10-4 Jacksonville 8-6 Baltimore 8-6 Buffalo 8-6 Denver 8-6 In reality it comes down to this. If Baltimore and Jacksonville lose next week, the Bills control their own destiny. 168592[/snapback] Common opponents only comes before conference record in divisional ties. K's Helmet post is correct. I do take issue with him stating that it's more likely (by about 10%) that Jax will lose a game than it is that Denver will, but that's just opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gantrules Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 You've got to be kidding me.... dude there is more to life than this. It's simple. If Jax beat Houston and Oakland we are done. we want Bmore to lose this week and Denver to lose this week...oh, yeah and we gotta win. Want a challange? Break down the NFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kgun5 Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 You've got to be kidding me.... dude there is more to life than this. It's simple. If Jax beat Houston and Oakland we are done. we want Bmore to lose this week and Denver to lose this week...oh, yeah and we gotta win. Want a challange? Break down the NFC. 168634[/snapback] You left out the Jets losing their last two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gantrules Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Not really. I'm assuming they are already in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BF_in_Indiana Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Common opponents only comes before conference record in divisional ties. K's Helmet post is correct. I do take issue with him stating that it's more likely (by about 10%) that Jax will lose a game than it is that Denver will, but that's just opinion. 168627[/snapback] You sir are correct. I misread. Well that sucks I was trying to give us more hope here, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kgun5 Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Not really. I'm assuming they are already in. 168642[/snapback] Why? They have NE at home next week, which they'll be favored to lose, and I don't see how the Jets at Rams is any more of a stretch to hope for than it is to hope for the Jags to lose one of their last two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BF_in_Indiana Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Not really. I'm assuming they are already in. 168642[/snapback] No, the Jets aren't in, in fact if Buffalo and NY tie at 10-6 we win out over them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gantrules Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Bwahahaha....are you serious about the Jets and Rams??? The Rams who got smoked by the ARIZONA CARDINALS yesterday? yeah, anyways, the Jets are in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kgun5 Posted December 20, 2004 Share Posted December 20, 2004 Bwahahaha....are you serious about the Jets and Rams??? The Rams who got smoked by the ARIZONA CARDINALS yesterday? yeah, anyways, the Jets are in. 168679[/snapback] All I said is that the chance for a Jets loss at St. Louis is similar to the chance that the Jags will lose either of their remaining games. I don't think either will happen, and was in fact villified in another thread here for saying so. So if you think the Jets are "already in", then you may as well say the Jags are "already in". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typical TBD Guy Posted December 20, 2004 Author Share Posted December 20, 2004 You've got to be kidding me.... dude there is more to life than this. It's simple. If Jax beat Houston and Oakland we are done. we want Bmore to lose this week and Denver to lose this week...oh, yeah and we gotta win. Want a challange? Break down the NFC. 168634[/snapback] My life is just fine as it is. I have a lot of time on my hands now that school's out. You should worry less about how I spend my time and more about how your Joe Simpleton logic managed to leave out the Jets scenario - one that is still very possible and could be the saving grace for our season. PS: Gant sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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