1st Picks In Draft Have Haunted Bills Since SB 28!

[BillsPhan]

Two days from "Thrilling Thursday" of the NFL Draft, I did a little research back in Bills' drafting history since the year after they played in their last of 4 straight SB's. Remember that Bill Polian was gone by then, having his infamous "break up" with Wilson after the third SB the previous year. But we all believed that John Butler and A.J. Smith had done a pretty good job through out the rest of the 90's. Well, maybe overall through all the rounds of the drafts they graded out OK, but as for their number one picks from '94 through 2000, um....not so much. And then 2000 through 2010 has been well documented as sucking.

 

But for kicks, here is a list of 1st picks, all 1st round picks, and one 6th round pick thrown in for the hell of it, the Bills drafted since 1994, and then I tossed in one player from each round under their drafted player as just one possible choice the Bills could have made instead. Based on only my humble opinion, the ONE best value draft choice the Bills have made since 1994?: Antowain Winfield in 1999! Here are the rest:

 

#27 - Drafted Jeff Burris - CB

#33 - Issac Bruce - WR

 

1995:

#14 - Drafted Ruben Brown -G

#23 - Ty Law - CB

 

1996:

#24 - Drafted Eric Molds - WR

#26 - Ray Lewis - MLB

 

1997:

#23 - Drafted Antowain Smith - RB

#36 - Tiki Barber - RB

 

1998:

#39 - Drafted Sam Cowart - MLB

#58 - Jeremy Newberry - C

 

1999:

#23 - Drafted Antowain Winfield - CB

Good value - no players really better

after Antowain in the 1st round.

 

2000:

#26 - Drafted Erik Flowers - DE

#38 - Marvel Smith - T

#194 - Drafted Leif Larsen - DT

#199 - TOM BRADY - QB (I could not resist!)

 

2001:

#21 - Drafted Nate Clements - CB

#32 - DREW BREES - QB

 

2002:

#4 - Drafted Mike Williams - T

#11 - Dwight Freeney - DE

 

2003:

#23 - Drafted Willis McGahee - RB

#24 - Dallas Clark - TE

 

2004:

#13 - Drafted Lee Evans - WR

#21 - Vince Wilfork - NT

#22 - Drafted J.P. Lost-Man QB

#24 - Stephen Jackson - RB

 

2005:

#55 - Drafted Rosco Parrish - WR

#61 - Vincent Jackson - WR

 

2006:

#8 - Drafted Donte Whitner - SS

#12 - Haloti Ngata

#26 - Drafted John McGargo - DT

#29 - Nick Mangold - C

 

2007:

#12 - Marshawn Lynch - RB

#14 - Derelle Revis - CB

 

2008:

#11 - Drafted Leodis McKelvin - CB

#18 - JOE FLACCO - QB

 

2009:

#11 Drafted Aaron Maybin - DE

#13 - Brian Orakpo - DE

 

2010:

#9 - Drafted C.J. Spiller - RB

#11 - Anthony Davis - T

Edited April 26, 2011 by BillsPhan

[Max997]

Ruben Brown was a really good pick in my opinion, the Bills running game was struggling and he helped bring it back to life.

 

I cant complain about Eric Moulds either, he was one of the best WRs in the league playing with average at best QBs

 

Sam Cowart was a monster and was on his way to becoming one of the best LBs in the league before getting hurt in that game at Tampa, never was the same player after that.

 

I didnt like the Antowain Smith pick at all, wanted Corey Dillon.

 

Lets not forget during the super bowl years they drafted JD Williams who was awful and John Fina who was average at best but was also forced into playing LT when most thought he was drafted to play LG

 

The last ten plus years have just been a disaster. TD cared more about headlines and interviews then drafting well.

Edited April 26, 2011 by Max997

[K-9]

I appreciate the work that went into your post. But I want to make sure I understand what you mean. Are you saying that in order for the Bills' 1st round picks to qualify as "best value" then no player taken after their selections can turn out to have have been or may currently be a better player in the NFL?

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Deep2Moulds46]

I appreciate the work that went into your post. But I want to make sure I understand what you mean. Are you saying that in order for the Bills' 1st round picks to qualify as "best value" then no player taken after their selections can turn out to have have been or may currently be a better player in the NFL?

 

GO BILLS!!!

I echo what you said about good work, and I also agree, I hope that's not your point.

 

Also, you have to be realistic about who the Bills were going to take at that time.

 

For example, the Maybin/Orakpo comparison is spot on, and the Bills clearly got the worst of that deal.

 

However, McKelvin to Joe Flacco is not fair. In 2007, Trent came off of successful rookie season where many NFL experts said he was showing promise as a very good NFL Starter. The Bills were in no position to consider a QB.

 

Mike Williams/Freeney......we had the 4th pick in the draft, and most draftnicks called freeney a reach at 11. Yes, he has turned out to be a superstar, but he was never considered a top 5 potential player.

 

Losman/Steven Jackson...again, yes a great player, but in 2003 the Bills just spent a 1st rounder on Willis McGahee and still had Travis Henry on the roster. They weren't going to draft a RB there (insert CJ Spiller joker here)

 

Sam Cowart was a great player for the Bills until he got hurt, hard to really hold that against them, and Eric Moulds was a pro bowl WR at the 24th spot, again, no regrets there.

 

Spiller/Davis....that's interesting...Im not sure why he was singled out, but I still believe that 4 years from now Spiller might be looked at as the steal of this draft.

[Sisyphean Bills]

I echo what you said about good work, and I also agree, I hope that's not your point.

 

Also, you have to be realistic about who the Bills were going to take at that time.

 

For example, the Maybin/Orakpo comparison is spot on, and the Bills clearly got the worst of that deal.

 

However, McKelvin to Joe Flacco is not fair. In 2007, Trent came off of successful rookie season where many NFL experts said he was showing promise as a very good NFL Starter. The Bills were in no position to consider a QB.

 

Mike Williams/Freeney......we had the 4th pick in the draft, and most draftnicks called freeney a reach at 11. Yes, he has turned out to be a superstar, but he was never considered a top 5 potential player.

 

Losman/Steven Jackson...again, yes a great player, but in 2003 the Bills just spent a 1st rounder on Willis McGahee and still had Travis Henry on the roster. They weren't going to draft a RB there (insert CJ Spiller joker here)

 

Sam Cowart was a great player for the Bills until he got hurt, hard to really hold that against them, and Eric Moulds was a pro bowl WR at the 24th spot, again, no regrets there.

 

Spiller/Davis....that's interesting...Im not sure why he was singled out, but I still believe that 4 years from now Spiller might be looked at as the steal of this draft.

Given the Bills lousy draft record and the examples you've cited, you have confirmed why chasing positions of need in the draft is arguably not the wisest of strategies. "Experts" may have felt Trent was a great QB, but a few of us noted after his rookie season that he simply moved the chains between the 20s and struggled badly in the red-zone. (And of course, we were called names for noticing this fact.) In fact, there is nothing wrong with bringing in a great player at a position where you have an average player, assuming you really are interested in improving the team overall.

 

A counterexample to the chasing positions of need approach. The Bills in 1987 had just drafted a stud LB from Penn State in the 1st round named Shane Conlan, had stud OLB Darryl Talley, had drafted Eugene Marve a few years earlier, had a promising looking player in Ray Bentley, had brought in Scott Radecic from the Chiefs, and already had a pass rushing specialist in former #1 pick Bruce Smith (not to mention a former Pro Bowler in the middle). They could've looked at that defense and said, "Last thing we need is another LB and/or pass rusher. We got other needs to fill." Bill Polian didn't do that. Instead he pulled off a 3-way trade to land Cornelius Bennett, who became a force and Pro Bowl caliber player for the next 9 seasons.