JStranger76 Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Champ has been roasted quite a bit this year too. Portis is a real good back, there are just so many now, he's kinda just another guy. But you are correct, for Washington, he was a huge upgrade at that position. As for Champ, who has he ever really "shut down", besides Peerless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Guest Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Tiger, It looks pretty much as though you and I are thinking the same way. I think after this week the standings will look like this: Pittsburgh 12-1 New England 12-1 Indianapolis 10-3 San Diego 10-3 New York 9-4 Denver 8-5 Baltimore 8-5 Jacksonville 7-6 Buffalo 7-6 However after this week is when the Bills make their big move: After Week 15 Pittsburgh 13-1 New England 13-1 Indianapolis 11-3 San Diego 11-3 New York 10-4 Denver 8-6 Baltimore 8-6 Buffalo 8-6 Jacksonville 7-7 After Week 16 Pittsburgh 14-1 New England 14-1 Indianapolis 12-3 San Diego 11-4 New York 10-5 Buffalo 9-6 Denver 8-7 Baltimore 8-7 Jacksonville 8-7 Week 17 New England 15-1 Pittsburgh 14-2 Indianapolis 13-3 San Diego 12-4 New York 10-6 Buffalo 10-6 Week 18 AFC Wildcard Playoffs Buffalo at Indianapolis New York at San Diego We lose but it is a great run and a start for 2005. It's perfectly all right if Cincinnati wins, though they probably won't. We play them next week and have to win then anyway, which would eliminate them from competition. If they win and Pittsburgh wins the next three, Pittsburgh guarantees themselves home field throughout, which makes their last game (with Buffalo) unnecessary. They will rest key players and not try too hard to win. The Jets play Pittsburgh Sunday and probably lose. Baltimore plays the Giants and win. Jacksonville probably beats Chicago. Denver probably beats Miami. The most likely scenario is that the Jets drop a little closer to the pack and Cincinnati drops out of the race while Buffalo, Baltimore, Jacksonville and Denver keep pace. 152201[/snapback] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nirvjam Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 It's perfectly all right if Cincinnati wins, though they probably won't. We play them next week and have to win then anyway, which would eliminate them from competition. If they win and Pittsburgh wins the next three, Pittsburgh guarantees themselves home field throughout, which makes their last game (with Buffalo) unnecessary. They will rest key players and not try too hard to win. The Jets play Pittsburgh Sunday and probably lose. Baltimore plays the Giants and win. Jacksonville probably beats Chicago. Denver probably beats Miami. The most likely scenario is that the Jets drop a little closer to the pack and Cincinnati drops out of the race while Buffalo, Baltimore, Jacksonville and Denver keep pace. 152201[/snapback] I agree that the above is the lilely scenario for each individual game. If we look at the 3 other games with teams fighting for the 6th spot, we could conservatively assign probabilities of 80%. That is: Baltimore over Giants (80% probability) Jacksonville over Chicago.(80% probability) Denver over Miami. (80% probability) However the probability that all three events ocur is .8 * .8 * .8 = .512 So there's about a 50% chance (48.8 to be exact) that we will gain on at least *one* of these three teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typical TBD Guy Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Here you go, Mr. sh--: Playoff Scenarios Playoff Scenario Probabilities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typical TBD Guy Posted December 8, 2004 Share Posted December 8, 2004 Here you go, Mr. sh--: Playoff Scenarios Playoff Scenario Probabilities 152420[/snapback] Curse this new sh-- filter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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