Draft Tek Guy

Howdy Dean, Draft Tek will be updating the player list for next weeks simulation, the current list is getting outdated - says 9/15 but it was more like Labor Day weekend. We do not develop our own Big Board, instead we use an averaging based on several sources. At this time of the year, most scouting services keep the seniors and juniors on separate lists. But to do a plausible mock draft you need to take a shot at working in the likely juniors. At this time of year, we rely pretty heavily on NFLDraftScout.com, although they too keep separate lists. The thinking is that in 2009, very few of the top juniors will be returning to college. The NFL will be renegotiating the labor agreement to ensure that those top picks do not get outrageous salaries - without ever having played. -Draft Tek Guy

The Bills have four glaring starter needs, it seems: 1) DT 2) CB 3) RB 4) ILB Buffalo drafted Youboty and McCargo to fill needs last year. Would Leon Hall or Chris Houston not also be stepping into a first year situation, same as Youboty?? And McCargo was hurt just as he was beginning to see action. McCargo was a 2nd round type talent. There are only 2 players who could be described as round 1 talent on the board, and both will likely be gone at Buffalo's #12 spot. Alan Branch and Amobi Okoye. An outside chance on Okoye being available. In the second round, Buffalo should find more McCargo quality DT talent available (Justin Harell, Tank Tyler or Brandon Mebane) So with the #12 you would have to think RB or ILB as the positions of greatest - Patrick Willis or Marshawn Lynch are both adequate value for the pick. It seems that most teams are set at RB, and are unlikely to use high picks on backups. Assume Cleveland bags Peterson, the Bills grab ILB Willis and the Packers draft Lynch, that leaves only the Giants and the Bills with major needs. And the Giants just signed droughns. I think the Bills hold off until the 3rd round for a RB and will have a choice of Antonio Pittman, Tony Hunt or Lorenzo Booker. Possibly Michael Bush may fall to them. Second round perhaps they will grab one of the high quality CBs that are available in this years bumper crop. -Warren@Drafttek.com www.drafttek.com

Morning Bot!! Thanks for the kind words on the site!! It seems that contributors on this thread were reasonably in consensus on Bills Draft Needs. Thanks to everyone for the input. I did take your advice and move FB to P5. I use P5 in an odd manner. It is a depth/value pick thru round 3, then in round 4 it converts to a P2. Anything assigned a P5 is almost certain to get filled in the mid rounds 4 or 5. And in my most recent simulation, I've got the Bills with Brian Leonard in R4 as a result: #1 - Willis (ILB) Ole Miss #2 - Hughes (CB) Cal #3 - Pitcock (DT) OSU #4 - Leonard (FB) Rutgers #6 - Mike Walker (WR) Central Florida #7 - Dallas Sartz (OLB) USC Although I bumped RB to a P3 need, it did not fill. RBs are in short supply on my list, as such RBs picks are usually considered "reaches". And I also have WR coded as a P5. As such, WR converts to P2 in round 4. P2 has higher priority than the P3's that haven't yet filled - OG and RB. I'm thinking that maybe we can move the WR priority to P4 (value depth need) so that round 6 will more likely fill with an RB or OG. What your thinking? With todays FA moves, I will most certainly be revising again for tomorrow. -Warren@Drafttek.com www.drafttek.com

Hello Bills Fans I run a draft website (drafttek.com). Prior to today. we had the Bills with the following positional priorities (defintions below): QB- 9 RB- 5 WR- 5 OT - 4 OG - 3 TE - 4 OC - 4 FB - 6 DT - 2 DE - 9 ILB - 2 OLB - 6 SS - 9 FS - 9 CB - 3 PK - 9 Given todays OL signings, I would tend to move OT up to a P6 and OG perhaps to a P4 (they still need help IMO). Assuming that OL and OG are now de-prioritized with respect to the draft, what positions do you see as getting additional draft focus?? Other than the obvious ILB, DT and CB. With all the noise about McGahee and TKO, I suspect that perhaps RB or OLB should getting more focus. What about TE??? Would appreciate opinions before I change the team matrix . . . Warren@drafttek.com www.drafttek.com Priority Code Definitions 1 Absolute Need Highest Priority will reach - only 1 per team 2 High Priority in need of Starter will reach 3 High Priority in need of Starter will not reach 4 General need for depth will select if exceptional value all rounds 5 General Need for Depth - Need at least 1 prioritize in round 4 if not fulfilled by then - converts to Pri 2 in round 6 Operational only in lower rounds (rd 5 -7): typically K, P, FB and second helping of positions with multiple needs 9 Will not draft - absolutely no need

Hi Astrobot!! Seems like the thread participants are unhappy with the Bills picks. But Draft Tek itself performed well if I may say so. The Bills did not have a number 1 priority. Three positions were labeled at #2's - CB, DT, and OLB. All three were addressed in the first three rounds with the best availables. After the #2's were filled, the next highest priority was OG, which was promptly filled in round 4. The #6 pick was a 4 priority - WR was a #4 along with several other positions. The best available #4 happened to be hicks. Maybe the issues were with the players themselves and not the actual positions that were filled in each round???? Thats more a function of an individuals personal opinion vs my player rankings. As I continue to revise and update the need of the various teams, the draft simulation will continue to evolve. Keep out of the cold! I hear its below zero out there! Yikes! Warren@drafttek.com

Hi Astrobot, I do have a new "master" draft up on my website www.drafttek.com. Bills taking Okoye 1st rnd. Lets see how the player rankings shape up over the next several weeks, the mid and lower round should get shaken up quite a bit . . .

Astrobot requested that I run my draft simulation model with the Bills positional priorities set as such: "If you run it again, I'd like to see if anything changes if we keep Fletcher and platoon him with Crowell inside (CB becoming #1, OG only and OLB at #2, and RB-WR-TE-C-ILB as #4." The output can be found at this location: http://www.drafttek.com/billsspcl.html My normal website is at www.drafttek.com. Although I value Astrobots input, I used a couple other Bills references to establish a priority set for the Bills. My "offical site" simulation (LOL) may use a different priority matrix than the one that Astrobot requested. -Warren@drafftek.com

Those priorities are inputs based on my opinion. Quite frankly, I know little about most teams, and I am fishing these fan sites for clues. I live out here near Oakland (Alameda, CA). I feel that Al Davis always has had a "win now" mentality. He has most always used veteran QB's and has very rarely drafted a franchise guy with a first round pick. Marinovich comes to mind, he flopped. Hence the 5 Priority. That said, my latest web site simulation does assume that Davis has an eye on Jamarcus Russell. I may flip this back at a later date. Russell has no one to throw to.

Thx will check it out and fix if so.

Astrobot, You asked me yesterday to run a model with certain priorities for the Bills. I will do it tomorrow, but I will put the results on this forum and not on the web site. I will probably start a new topic however. Also, just a little while ago I ran a new simulation for the web site. Changed Raiders QB priority to #1 and put Russell in front of Brady. It really shook things up downstream. Thanks for your input. Later in the week, the website will feature a new draft with changes for the Bills, Chargers and Giants based upon yalls input as well as fans from those teams sites.

Hi Pyrite Gal, I read this and another post you made on the draft. I think I've heard enough to change my tune on the ILB position. I shall back it off from a #1 priority. That said, it does not appear that the Bills have a true #1 priority, but it seems that DT and CB would have to be the highest. Regarding Whitner, if my model had been in existence last year, it would not have selected Whitner in all likelihood. I believe that Whitner was "rated" in the low 20's as far as player rank. Even if SS had a top priority, the reach from pick 8 to rank 22 was more than my model will allow for such a low pick. I had considered building in some type of flag into the Draft Tek model which would identify potential trade down situations, but that will need to wait until next year. Later in the week, expect to see the Draft Tek model making a change to the Bills Priority matrix and generating a new draft. Early in the week, I'm going to run a model whereby the Raiders take Jamarcus Russell instead of Calvin Johnson who I now have. It will be interesting to see how one minor change at the top of the draft can ripple to the later rounds. Warren

Hi Astrobot <Great first post.>. I am basically fishing for hits to my web site. Hope to get advert revenue in March and April. That said, I am passionate about Pro Football and the Bills have been a favorite team since their heyday. And I want to have a product that people will come to visit, one that accurately represents the needs of all the 32 teams. However, when the real draft comes along, it will no doubt look much different that what anyone comes up with. I will be running a couple more scenarios in the upcoming week, but do you really think that the Bills would keep Fletcher?? I could run your scenario on the basis that the Bills grab a decent LB to replace Fletcher. But you think OT is set with Pennington and Peters? I would still think a #4 Priority for OT for depth. I can buy a CB as #1 priority and could be convinced the Bills could go that way. What about DT?? Okoye looks tasty. -Warren

I use a computer model to simulate the 2007 NFL Draft. Visual Basic on MSExcel platform (if you care). My 5 round simulation has the Bills picking the following: 1) Patrick Willis, ILB Ole Miss 2) Joe Staley, OT Central Mich 3) Ben Grubbs, OG Oregon 4) Jonathan Wade, CB Tennessee 5) traded to St Louis for DE Hargrove My priority lists ILB as top priority. Assuming Flether-Baker bolts and no free agent is signed. If Bills get Briggs, June, Adalius Thomas. etc, I will adjust my model accordingly and repost the results. Assume Clements also leaves, but I assume that Youboty is as good as most any draft pick. Nonetheless, Bill will likely expend a day 1 pick or early day 2 on a CB. DT also a possibility, but model could not find adequate value when Bills picked. Please review at www.drafttek.com. I welcome comments. Warren@Drafttek.com