[Michael Turner's agent reportedly given permission to talk w/Bills]

thats the same way i was told conditional pick next yr based of playing time etc..highest is a 1st lowest is a 3rd

 

If this is the case, it might not be as bad as it initially sounds.

 

Rd 1 12th = 1200

Rd 1 30th = 620

Rd 2 12th = 460

Rd 3 12th = 210

Rd 3 29th = 128

 

If we gave up one of our Rd 3 picks, and do a good job of negotiating the playing time condition so that it would likely turn out as a second round pick, we'd be giving up about 670 or 588 pts worth of value, which would be the same as a Rd 1 27th or 30th pick (assuming our draft status is approximately the same as it is this year, and not devaluing a next year's pick by a round).

 

If we swapped first rounders with them, and gave them a third rounder, that would be a trade worth either 790 or 708 points of value. Which is equivalent of either a 1st round 22 or 26th pick. This trade could be worked out so that it is actually better than the trade many people are saying is the right way to go.

 

The better the Bills do this year, the lower the conditional pick will be, thereby devaluing SD's end of the trade.

 

I wouldn't be against it until I actually heard the terms of the conditional pick.

 

But assuming that DJ is definitely set on a 2 back system, I think it could be very likely that Turner won't hit the conditional playing time amount to give away a first for him next year. This deal has the potential to bite us in the ass, but I think that Marv and DJ might know what they're doing enough so that it could actually be good.

[Short Passing Game]

Well, the following is only my opinion, so take it for what it's worth.

 

Living in OK, I haven't seen any Bills games this year. The best I can do is getting on NFL.com and watching the stats tick by. But if I remember correctly, the first 3-4 games this year seemed to be filled with short pass plays by the Bills, and an occasional deep throw. I don't know if they were 3 step drops or not (again, haven't gotten to actually see them play), but a lot of them seemed to be short. < 10 yds, and passes out in the flats. I can only assume there were some 3 step drops in there for the amount of short passes it seemed we were completing.

 

It seemed to be a common complaint that the short throws weren't getting it done and the offense was too dependent on receivers YAC. JP needed to use his "rocket, laser arm" and stretch the field. But I don't think anyone would argue that the whole team didn't look better in the first 4 games than they have in the last 4 games.

 

Now it seems that the Bills are only attempting passes that are > 10yds down field. Well, when you attempt long passes and they are incomplete, that leaves the team in long yardage situations for the next down.

 

Now, like everyone else, I have no ideas what plays are being called, and what, if any, audibles are being called. But it seems to me that the biggest problem with the offense is the lack of utilization of the tools that they do have. Is JP the QB for the future? I have no idea. Is McGahee the RB for the future? Who knows. Should any player on the Bills offense be very secure in their job? Probably not. Not one of them has performed up to par this season. Have we seen any flashes of greatness mixed in with good performances in some situations? Absolutely. But the offense as a whole has underperformed, each and every player out there has.

 

But if you have an inexperienced QB, and a suspect OL, perhaps some shorter pass plays are in order? Perhaps more utilization of the TE is in order? Perhaps more screens are in order? Perhaps plays that appropriately use the talent that is currently on the team is what the Bills need instead of plays that ask the guys on the team to do things they just aren't able to do well.

 

It should be obvious to the OC that 5-7 step drops for long pass plays are not always working for the Bills. Runs straight up the middle through our suspect OL are not always working. Perhaps we should be doing more of the things that we can do, instead of the things we can't. I'm not saying never pass it deep, or never run it in the middle, but do those plays in moderation, those shouldn't be the bulk of the playcalling.

 

It almost seems to me that the coaches aren't focused on winning, but are still trying to figure out what this team can and can't do well. Lots of people are wanting to blame the QB, or the RB, or the OL, or the DL, or the DB's, for the failures and shortcomings of the team. I blame the coaches. It's the first job of the coaches to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of their team, and then to get their team to play to their strengths, and keep working on eliminating the weaknesses. I would venture to say that most people couldn't name the Bill's strengths, on either side of the ball. Who's fault is that? Is it the fans' fault for not being observant? No. is it the players faults for not trying, or constantly failing? Not really. It's the coaches fault for not putting the team in a position to show us their strengths.

 

But just as QB's are said to need 3 years to develop, most coaches also need about 3 years to develop.