JM57
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Posts posted by JM57
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If the primary targets (Oliver, Hockenson, Williams) all somehow go in the top 8 and the Skins come calling to move to #9 that would be the best scenario to come out of it.
Get down into the 15 area and now it's more palatable to take Metcalf, Wilkins, Fant or someone like that
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8 minutes ago, the skycap said:
I don't think Mel/Todd/Bucky really did their homework on the Bills and Josh Allen. Allen strength is throwing the ball long, to the outside. Was weaker throwing to the middle of the field. Why would they target a TE to help Josh Allen? The Ed Oliver mock is basically to replace All Pro Kyle Williams. Yes, they need to address that position, but it's ALL ABOUT ALLEN. I like Khalen Saunders in the second and moving back up or acquiring a pick in rd 2 to get Zach Allen to address the defense. IMO, they can't pass on Metcalf.
If you know that Allen succeeded throwing deep and outside the numbers, guess who else does? Every single defensive coordinator in the league. And guess what the first thing they will scheme to take away is? The throws that he was good at.
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1 hour ago, formerlyofCtown said:
Red Star means he outperformed his draft slot. Regardless of who knew.
Not sure if you realize this.
He was a first round prospect with medical red flags. How does one outperform a first round stock?
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28 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:
Might you suspect that a team who throws more to the TE than all the WR is runnng a gimmic offense? Does that translate to the pros?
I would suspect that means that Iowa, a noted NFL TE factory, had NFL talent at that position and not at WR...
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3 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:
Gronk was definitely a Red Star Player.
Gronk was a first round talent with medical red flags that dragged his stock down. Everyone thought he would outperform his draft position *if* he was able to return to health from the back surgery he had at Arizona.
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9 hours ago, Cornette's Commentary said:
Chris Isaak = JM57
Woman in the video = TJ Hockenson
Your schtick is bad and you should feel bad.
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9 minutes ago, Cornette's Commentary said:
He'll be throwing 40 to 50 bullets to this beast, when the front four struggle to stop the run and rush the passer, and they're always having to play from behind.
Your schtick is bad and you should feel bad.
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9 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:
I would argue that we have heard rumbles of thunder in the distance, but lightening hasn’t yet struck with Allen. Again, I am optimistic abut his future, but his success is not certain by any means.
No I'd absolutely agree with that on Allen. And then you add in another high variance prospect on offense too? Not the best strategy IMO.
Allen showed last year that his floor isn't as low as we maybe thought it was, but there's still tons of work to do to hit that very high ceiling. Now some fans want to bring in another low floor, high ceiling WR too? Like really, how likely is it that BOTH of them would be able to hit that ceiling, let alone one of them? Then add on the track record of Ole Miss WR in the league lately. Give me a safer pick.
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14 minutes ago, lookylookyherecomescookie said:
I have no clue whether Metcalf will or won't succeed, but it seems your exact words could have very reasonably been used last year with Josh
It's actually a good example. The physical traits are all there but the production isn't. What are the odds lightning strikes twice for the Bills?
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11 minutes ago, NoSaint said:
It happens more than you probably realize and if we have 3 guys that are good in space, it’s not terrible.
The flip side is in a big nickel package situation would you rather our 3rd safety or a guy like white and just stay base? I’m not saying we cut nickel totally but there’s obviously some flex in what makes up the percentages we are in that package.
plus, again, injuries at LB aren’t rare and it seems to be a key level in McDs scheme.
My biggest thing is that they have to finish the offense before making luxury picks like back to back MLB in round 1. The first window to win with a "franchise" QB is when he's on his rookie deal and you can pay him peanuts and throw money around elsewhere. If that's where they think they are with Allen, they better make sure he's got every piece around him to start winning games. They only have a limited window before version one of the team has to be broken up and retooled to afford Allen's first raise.
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6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:
The private workout was reported prior to draft, it came out a couple weeks before . I remember specifically because i had harped for months that they hadn’t met with him, and then we found that they had flown out there end of March. It was not widely reported - one Wyoming person tweeted it and I found it.
Here it is:
Here it is:
Yeah I had to do some googling myself to remember the timeline but I never saw that tweet. Thought it was kept more quiet. Thanks!
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16 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:
I don’t really care at all about Wilkinson’s age or how old he will be on his next deal. Should I? I’ll take him on his rookie deal and if he’s great I’ll re-sign him. If he’s the best player available I take him, 21 or 24.
Yes, you absolutely should care. Especially with your first pick. We know that abilities decline with age, with the rare exception. If you draft a 24 year old, you might get his peak years right off the bat, but maybe you're getting his athletic decline on the second contract. Whereas an Edmunds or Allen, you're getting development on deal one, prime years on deal two, and maybe if they sign a third deal, you get the twilight of their career.
Why you would only want 5-6 years out of a first round pick when there's many other prospects at the same position who could provide you with nearly twice as many years?
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28 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:
It was reported before they drafted him. But they brought him in to OBD as well.
I think the official visit to OBD was known but the private visit was very hush hush. If we knew about it, it wasn't until right about now. I remember the smoke really picked up on Tuesday or Wednesday last year
17 minutes ago, DCOrange said:That may be, but they also brought Allen to Buffalo for an official visit which is what Turner is basing his list of possibilities off of.
I read the whole thing last night. He mentions official top 30 visits at OBD, senior bowl meetings, combine meetings, private workouts, shrine game...
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6 minutes ago, DCOrange said:
The workouts that Turner is referring to would have taken place in Buffalo so you're talking about something else.
The Bills brass flew to Wyoming for Allen's private workout last year. We didn't know it happened until after they picked him, but they definitely went to him.
8 minutes ago, NewEra said:The more that we realize Oliver won’t be available at 9, the more we realize Hockenson is our best bet. And then we can watch as we take Christian Wilkins (who I don’t dislike)
I don't dislike Wilkins as a player. I do dislike that he'll be 24 before this season ends. That means he's signing his second deal at 28. Some guys are signing their second deal at the age he's being drafted at.
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49 minutes ago, DCOrange said:
I don't necessarily think it's wise to draft another LB so high despite believing that taking advantage of Edmunds' versatility would be better than simply playing him at MLB, but having said...
I did my best to determine the snap counts from the 3 LBs when all 3 were healthy and it looks like when all 3 were healthy, they played the following percentage of defensive snaps (ignoring special teams):
Edmunds: 99%
Milano: 90%
Lorax: 52%
So while Lorax was obviously used significantly less, he was still playing over half the defensive snaps.
So again, I don't necessarily think it would be wise to take another LB that high, but they could still make it work with Edmunds, Milano, and White/Bush all playing the majority of snaps.
Other thoughts on the article:
It's a good read, but as others pointed out, kinda weird that he just assumes Hockenson came in for a visit so that he can make him the choice while still fitting the main criteria, which is that every player they've drafted in the 1st has come in for an official visit.
It is very likely that Hockenson has been visiting with teams on the down low, but we simply don't know who those teams are. It might include the Bills but it might not.
Let's put it this way in regards to Hockenson....what are the odds that the Bills had a private workout for Noah Fant and the WR from Iowa, Nick Easley, and didn't work out Hockenson while they were in town?
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13 minutes ago, Manther said:
Milano comes off. It’s an easy choice. And, one of the three will get hurt at some point in some season.
Just my opinion, White's going to be a very good player, but that's a luxury pick and not smart to double up on LB in two consecutive years.
As mentioned elsewhere, it's obvious Beane and McDermott think Josh Allen is The Guy, right? Otherwise why draft him. So operating from that, it's always best to maximize that first competitive window where your young QB is cheap and you can spend premium money elsewhere. To maximize that window, your offense has to be as good as possible to allow the young QB to succeed. They haven't finished the offense. If they keep building the defense first, they're going to waste that first window.
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1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:
@JM57 asked me after a discussion in the shout box to elucidate on what I had on Hock and this thread seemed like a suitable thread in which to do it. My scouting notes on Hock are typed up below"
Pros:
- all round solid tight end;
- very good soft hands;
- impressive get off both in terms of running routes and in terms of getting the initial punch as a blocker;
- effective after the catch and hard to bring down;
- demonstrates an understanding of blocking schemes and was used in a variety of ways;
- finishes his blocks;
- 100% effort every play.
Cons:
- only average speed for the position;
- struggles to create separation through his route running;
- doesn't high point the football consistently when catching it, could use his body better to wall off defensive backs;
- struggles to block anyone with speed. Hands tend to start too wide and doesn't have a quick step adjustment;
- lacks a truly elite trait.
So to me that is a guy I would consider taking later in the first round and I would love to have early in the 2nd round. Which is precisely why I have him graded as that borderline guy. I think he can be a plug and play starter for a team at tight end and have a good solid 6-10 year career there. But I don't see an elite difference maker and for me to give a tight end a pure first round grade, or even more so a top 10 grade, I have to believe I see that elite potential.
Then we come to the tricky question of pro comparison. I am not big into the pro comparison thing in general but I get asked about it a lot for players and I have seen all sorts of names thrown about for Hock - Gronk, Kelce, Witten...... my pro comparison is a little more modest - Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph was drafted early in the 2nd round back in 2011 and in an 8 year career has scored 41 touchdowns (just better than 5 a year), been an effective run blocker both for AP and then Delvin Cook and in the seasons where he has stayed healthy has put up somewhere between 450 and 850 receiving yards. Also worth saying his receiving production has not been helped by a less than stellar list of Quarterbacks: Christian Ponder, Matt Cassel, Teddy Bridgewater, Sam Bradford, Case Keenum and Kirk Cousins. To me that is where I see Hock.... in the 600-800 yards receiving and 4 or 5 touchdowns a year range most years while helping out as a blocker at the same time.
Of the bigger name comparisons I do see Jason Witten. Witten was a third rounder back in 2003 and in 15 years averages just over 4.5 touchdowns a season and around 800 yards. He has had 4 1,000 yard seasons in 15 years - his first of which came in his 5th year in the league. Now if you ask looking back "would Jason Witten of been worth a first round pick?" of course the answer is yes. But the period of his career where he was a true elite difference maker was a short spell in the middle and it is precisely because you can find guys like Witten later in the draft that you have to be convinced a guy is that elite difference maker and is capable of being it early in order to make him worth a 1st. Witten is a future HoFer but part of that is his incredible longevity and I don't think you can sensibly draft a non-Quarterback and say "he is going to play for 15 years".
Essentially my conclusion is even if I am willing to put Hockenson somewhere between Kyle Rudolph as a floor and Jason Witten as a ceiling that does not make me reconsider the grade I have given him.
I do not think Hockenson is going to be a bust. Far from it - I think he is a pretty safe pick. My doubts are whether he will ever be a star.
Much appreciated. You're much more modest on your evaluation of him than many of the big time analysts, but I think that's a good thing. If the big time analysts are writing their reports and hyping his ceiling, I think you've done a good job with seeing his floor.
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1 minute ago, NoSaint said:
Milano and they don’t run nickel as much
or they rotate packages a bit to keep guys fresher
or the back up lb filling in because someone’s hurt.
Would you trust the LB to cover a slot WR or back lined up out of the backfield over a DB?
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2 minutes ago, Turk71 said:
He thinks Devin White is not an option because he plays MLB and the Bills have Edmunds. Edmunds played OLB in college and I think he would be very effective outside. White in the middle and Edmunds and Milano outside would be a top LB trio for many years to come.
This keeps coming up on the board and the question that never gets answered is "who comes off the field when they go to nickel?"
I can't find the percentage anywhere but I bet the Bills were in nickel/dime looks close to half of their defensive snaps. Which one of the 3 is missing half the snaps then?
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2 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:
I hope he's just buzzed...What it would cost to get up there I am not in favor of...Period...?
That's from last year, I'm just saying I don't think he's really dialed in on anything with the Bills especially since it turns out, one year later, that Gettleman was never moving out of #2
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5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:
I could see Burns but I don’t think Sweat is the type of player they showcase as a top pick. It’s not easy to get kicked out of sparty but he succeeded. ?
Cam Newton stole/was kicked out of Florida but that didn't stop the Panthers from taking him and although Beane wasn't the GM then, he was there...
1 minute ago, gonzo1105 said:He has a heart condition no one is taking Sweat in the top 10. Someone today said he could fall to the end of round 1
Others have talked to sources that still think he doesn't make it out of the top 20.
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1 hour ago, ndirish1978 said:
Marino is the same guy who insisted the Bills were about to add an Edge Rusher in a "creative way" and then nothing panned out. I have him placed firmly in the "who cares what he says" category of information providers.
I think that was Kevin Massare, can't find a tweet from either though to confirm it.
36 minutes ago, Kmart128 said:McShay says he is hearing we are focusing on DLine after adding 6 Offensive Linemen. Who knows what to believe
Todd McShay is 'hearing a lot of buzz' that Buffalo Bills could trade up to No. 2
Posted Apr 4, 2018 -
2 hours ago, mrags said:
Don’t get me wrong at all. I think Hock will be really good. Has a higher floor and will most likely be good at worst. However just how some people feel about Metcalf, I say swing for the fences. If your going with potential, I think Fant has a higher ceiling. Of course I could be wrong. But I’d take Fant, back in the 20s and be glad I traded back multiple times for multiple extra 2nd and 3rd round picks. Giving me room to move back up if needed, or stay where we are. Because I feel this draft class has a lot of really good talent at our positions of most need. I say capitalize on more picks.
I like your philosophy. I'm kind of on the other side of the fence.
Hockenson's high floor sells me. IF Josh Allen is The Guy, then the Bills need to get good before he costs a ton of money. That's their best window. Surround him with the best weapons you can, starting with this season, and let's get there. A plug and play guy like Hock with a high floor and still a high ceiling just makes sense to me like that
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16 minutes ago, mrags said:
Actually. I’ll admit I was wrong here. Looking at their combine measurable, TJ Hock is actually taller and heavier than Fant. I’m basing off what I see on film. Fant just looks larger. Taller. More built than Hock. At least imo.
I wasnt saying hes more physical as in the run game btw. I know Hock is a much better blocker. I meant as far as receiving. Based off the highlights I’ve seen, Fant just looks to be a superior athlete than Hock.
Yeah definitely more athletic. It's funny some of the write-ups I've read on Hockenson have a hard time finding real negatives for him on the film, maybe some small stuff to clean up, but they're just like "his athletic numbers aren't great."
Now I won't call myself an expert but if you're breaking down film of a guy and all you can find to be down on is that he doesn't test off the charts at the combine then you've got my attention. Give me a player whose film is so good you can't even complain about it LOL
Update: Dan Snyder in control of RD1? WAS (To 5 for QB Jones/Haskins)
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Or trying to bait the Giants into taking their QB at 6 instead of 17? I could see either being the case.