colin
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Posts posted by colin
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in recent history (since 2k) we have tampa canning dungy to bring in chuckie and winning a chip.
we have indy firing their prior coach and bringing in dungy and winning a chip.
we have denver firing fox (wasn't that right after going to and losing a chip?!?!, that would be the highlight of mcclappy's career, losing a superbowl) and brining in next dude who won a chip.
we have philthy firing fat andy who went on to be considered one of the goats, and then (a bit later mind you) got a chip coach, and kinda two chip qbs, ditched both qbs and the coach, got a coach, went to two and won a chip.
i really hope we break this trend and are the first to win after many years w teh same hc and qb, but there's not data that says moving onto the next won't improve our chances. obviously we could get a pumpkin and it would make us worse, but how many NFL pros/experts would even say we have the best coach in our division, and this is considering two of them have combined for one total win this season, and are both wondering if they get fired during or at the end of this season.
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we have what we do best, we should do that until teams stop us from doing that. having our big people out there with cook and allen and the ol gives us a better group of talent than our opponents except for maybe a couple of match ups (i remember thinking the late 2024 baltimore d which was #1 after a horrible start was a bad match up, we got to up 2 points and had to kill the clock, and we just ran power with ty johnson and took a first down from their d hell bent on stopping a run. big people win football games most of the time, no reason to not think ours can too).
you can run and pass out of heavy formations, we are literally the best at that. allen throws perfect lazers to tightends and to wrs in long routs out of max protect and play action (the bomb to set off our first score that hit palmer was in like 12 or 22 formation, without our best te). we can do that and no huddle into having ty or cook line up in the slot, kinkaid in the slot, or the wr in the slot and kinkaid out wide. we can run allen runs out of that, we can run gap or zone out of that, and we will take the teeth out of any blitz like that. if kinkaid was right last season maybe he catches that 4th down pass on a blitz that was picked up wrong vs kc, that could be a chip play, and now we have better players for it.
the big issues is we tell the d what we are doing and arrogantly do it. there is no need for that and it must stop. we can do that in the 4th with a lead when the opponents d is gassed and sad.
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2 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:
Ogunjobi is supposed to be a bit of a run specialist isnt he? Thats a welcomed skill set, while not expecting Wilfork results.
Hoecht is a guy Im actually excited about. For all my criticism of Coach lately, I am 100% confident that he will get the most out of him as a chess piece. A Lorenzo Alexander lite is what my impression is (dont think he played under McD though).
lorax was really good under mcd, he was an all pro (2nd team) in 16, and played in 17, 18, and 19 for the mcd d and did really well in spot play.
hoyt will be our lorax now, and obietrenkanobie will be a solid DT.
going from snaps with wet behind the ears rookies and practice squad guys to a deep DT rotation of oliver, dq, walker, obiwan, tj sanders in base dl sets is awesome. being able to have some fresh legs and go bosa oliver, groot, aj (mix in walker and hoyt) as a nascar package is a big deal too.
last year in the playoffs in must impact downs late vs lamar jackson and kermit we had jordan phillips, the ghost of von, and solomon taking meaningful quantities of reps. that's shocking.
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given injuries, the dline and special teams have played great.
the secondary is pure dirty cheeks. the linebackers might be worse, save shaq. honestly, if this team had an average YPC given up in the run game, with the same distribution of stuffs and explosive runs, we have at least 1 more win -- which tells me the biggest hole is LB and Safety.
on the other side of the ball, injuries to palmer and kinkaid suck, but i put the two losses on brady more than anyone else. if we had shanahan level offensive coaching we'd be 6-0, brady w his head removed from his coccyx we'd be at least 5-1.
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if this kid is gonna hit his ceiling and be as good or better of a corner as tre was in his prime, then he will contribute positively to the team out the gate.
if he can play i think he should play. let him make his mistakes now so come playoffs he's g2g.
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1 hour ago, 26TrapDraw said:
Did he get an extension that would pay him elite money?
is top 20 considered elite? And will he finish there.
TBH, hendricks gets what, 30mm a year, parsons gets 40, crosby and garrett are between there. groot gets like 50-60% of elite money, which is basically fair.
based on this year benford and bernard are overpaid, based on their prior 2 they are either fairly paid or kinda cheap. ed is a bit cheap right now but not consistent, bosa is on a so far very cheap 1 year deal. the problem is we have so many holes on d, too many street guys and rookies taking snaps at DT, and we need a real play maker to emerge.
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i dunno what happened but this kind of thing can get a player in deep doo doo.
i swear the nfl likes the awful reffing as long as it leads to the bigger draw teams doing well/driving revenue.
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the success rate per play and the pressure by the d shows where our wins will come from, should they come.
the article was good but did not mention penalties. since the NO game we have been about the worst in the nfl in penalties and penalty differential. some of that is bad/unlucky calls but more of it is unprepared players and sloppy play.
on the turnover front -- it's true we can't always expect to generate turnovers and to not turn the ball over, but the two jet sweep fumbles were hideous play calls and design. most jet sweeps run are little underhand tosses, so that if the ball is dropped it is an incomplete pass rather than a fumble, we of course have to outsmart everyone and fumble the ball and kill the drive. a couple of the ints were on bad spacing/play design and frankly being just too predictable (the 80% run under center, 80% pass out of shotty is OD).
i heard today the bills allow the highest % of explosive run plays (i think 10 or 15 yards) and the highest % of stuffs (like 1 yard or less). while the secondary play always seem super lax and conservative, we play the run like psycho gamblers. also, we run about as much as anyone, and are basically about the best at it on offense. it's pretty clear we have to build on strength and put wrinkles into the offense to be less predictable and on D to somehow not just allow teams to run on us at will. a couple stuffs and a 20 rip is a net negative for the D.
we are personnel limited and maybe just maybe KC is too stacked w all the speed on O this season for us to do anything, but if we can get the DL to be the strength of the d, which it has shown it can be so far, and line up w lots of TEs and backs and pass and run with our best talent on the field, then i think we have our best chance.
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mcclappy is 8-0 in games after bye weeks. i suspect we win this game in a laugher.
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they need to trade waddle to us for picks
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25 minutes ago, BillsVet said:
Short of a SB appearance this year it's time to move on from McBeane. The issue with this GM isn't so much draft picks/UFA signings, contract extensions, coordinator decisions, X's and O's, or in-game decisions. It's an overall approach to football both of them seemingly share which isn't moving the team forward. They're stuck in the Division/Championship Game round now 5 straight seasons with a franchise QB. That's an eternity in NFL years with little to show for it besides an oft-referenced regular season record.
I remember Kevin gilbrides NFL coaching career. He was a crazy man who coached offense as if football was played on an infinite field and the goal was to net the gains you had on o vs the ones you lost on d, and whoever was the furthest ahead at the end of the game clock was the winner. Always at all times he was looking for the biggest plays. If it was 2nd and 2 and a 40 yard down the field out to the 3wr was in his mind the highest expected value of yards gained, then that what he called. It was horrible when you had a lead and wanted to kill clock. He was the merchant of passing to set up the run and he always had super productive running backs but they were running out of basic run schemes vs light boxes, and his protections were fairly simple too, but in passing it was all option routes all the time.
It was super green light football. It lead to multiple disasters, as well as multiple top ranked is and two rings w the giants. Total boom bust guy.
MCD to me seems to be a guy who coaches to have the best average result. He is similarly to gilbride an all eggs in few baskets kinda coach. He lives in fear of deep passes and will do everything to prevent them, he loves controlling the ball and "complimentary football". He's switched from cowardly to second most aggressive on 4th downs in the NFL, so he can be taught new things mind you.
He's built a team to beat the KC team that smoked us on Allen's first afc chip game. The problem is he simply is willing to allow the run in order to stop the pass, and when the d is off it allows both. He doesn't really believe in having a very specific to the opponent game plan, or on having a plan b. The downside is it can super frustrating to watch the bills get gashed with powenruns, or for a death of a thousand cuts while KC just grinds us in the playoffs. The upside is with very tiny adjustments in people or concepts we can all do a sudden be in a game it looked like we were gonna get walked in. The Baltimore comeback and how we shut ATL for basically the entire second half is an example of this just this season.
It's lead to a shocking level of season over season consistency and being bounced vs the best teams in the most heart breaking ways.
There are other coaches I'd much rather have given the team we have, but we are stuck with him at least until the end of this season and like longer still. The hope is he can snap this team and his coordinators into shape so that they eliminate the penalties, mistakes, and turnovers and get back to their best advantage.
He is who he is and has built a team in his scrappy undersized image, we just need some luck and him to add one more wrinkle to just not get out coached by the reids and vrabels of the world who will tailor a game plan to their opponent and stand behind tough physical and dirty football.
Dungy was the same kind of guy, he got the boot from TB who won a chip shortly after, but he was able to catch lighting in a bottle and get hot and healthy at the right time w Indy. Let's hope
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4 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
AJ Brown cap hit this year for us would be 780k and 2026 would be 1.5M if I am seeing that correctly?
I highly doubt the Eagles would move him, but who knows
Edit: Eagles would have a lot of dead cap $.....which they have had no issue doing before, but makes it more unlikelyi'd happily trade 2 firsts and 2 seconds for him under those conditions, maybe more.
for what it's worth, x dot com seems to think that we might get waddle. i'd be super happy with that, but aj brown would be over the top out of sight.
this O with a player like that along w what we have would be simply a scary monster. it would let us put coleman in the slot, go all height and power w them two and tight ends in the red zone, and if we ran jumbo sets w 1 or 2 wr if one of them is AJ the play action will be so so scary the opponents might not just ever load the box.
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the thing that stands out the most to me, both from the above article and from a post made in the is brady the problem thread (where the poster showed josh's numbers from last year's 3-2 first 5 games vs our now 4-2 six games, short story josh is slightly more productive per game now), losing the turnover battle is what has murdered us.
we sucked badly last year on D, didn't stop 3rd downs, but got a ton of turnovers, and we never turned it over on O. as much as everything sucks now, that's basically why we are 4-2 and not 5-1 or 6-0. i think the read through is that we just have to not turn the over on O, and not need them on D.
the easiest fix to this, imo, is to not be an open book with our offensive play calls, and similarly on D to not just line up in our standard sets until we get crushed by easy to execute plays and then adjust. i think we need to be simpler (do what works, less over creativity) and be a little less arrogant (actually make the d guess what we are doing instead of telling them ahead of time with our tendencies).
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22 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:
The 49ers gave up three 1st for Trey Lance, we're certainly not traded them All for one 1st. It would take them multiple 1sts and a bunch of players for the reigning MVP see Herschel Walker to the Vikings type compensation.
was it really 3 firsts?
what did parsons get, 2 1sts and a huge contract? allen getting traded (which should never even be considered, let alone happen) would have to be the biggest trade of all time.
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everyone in the world will agree that josh is an uber talent at QB, and has the records/stats, with multiple OCs, to prove it.
everyone in the world will agree that james cook is an explosive RB, as soon as he started being featured in the O his production has been near the top of the nfl, he's fast, he was awesome in college, and he's awesome now.
everyone knows the bills have very very good nasty tackles, generally solid interior OL play, and most people who assess OL put them in the top 3 to top 5.
we have all seen the TEs block well and go off this season. the stats of passing to our TEs are super strong, and we have three of them who can play (only two last monday obv).
everyone also knows our WR room is weak.
also, we lead the nfl in scoring last season, and the consistency we've shown since 2020 on O is basically the best or 2nd best in the nfl.
how the hell does someone see this, and say the reason why our O is sputtering and outright sucking the past two weeks is because of the lack of outside wr? yes we don't have that, yes we should trade for one so we do have it, and yes beane is a clown shoe for doing nothing to change that, but with four advantage position groups and a track record of success not getting production is CLEARLY ON THE COACHING.
brady has accomplished jack squat as an OC. he was passing game coordinator for the must insane wr 1/2 and qb trio i've ever seen in college football, and the HC was the architect of that O. he was ish on a stick in carolina, and he has produced roughly the same numbers as dorsey did w our O, but with a much better balance (i tip him well over dorsey).
how on earth is it the one single position we are not the beneficiaries of an embarrassment of riches on and not the OC? again, yes we should have better wr talent and it's a sin that we don't, but holy crap we played a small fast d and couldn't figure out how to run the ball or pass out of run sets against them? running 80%+ out of under center and passing 80%+ out of shotgun, that's not bad coaching? what is?
brady has had some great success with this O, with the players we have now, he did not call good games, had idiot jet sweep calls, no answers for blitzes rattling his qb, and took cook of the pitch for what, 10 high leverage snaps? we had like 50 something offensive plays vs atl, so fully 20% of them were high leverage snaps where cook was on on the field. why, so shavers or a future UPS driver can confuse the d and show how clever brady is? our HC has called him out for the same trash the prior week.
brady is not doing his job, it's so obvious, and it's mind boggling how anyone doesn't see it.
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the O has such a massive advantage in the modern nfl it's crazy. you start at the what, 31 yard line on average? kickers are great now, so you have to be two steps better than a 3 and out to be close to FG range, and with all the athletic qbs there are a lot of ways to advance the ball in the redzone.
it seems to me the better Ds basically play O on D now. they decide what they will take away, what they will make difficult, and what they will live with. the old school idea of basically tampa 2 being conservative but excellent so that teams just won't be able to find the holes in the zone, or gain enough yards running, and living to take away the deep pass above all (the most difficult thing to execute in pro football, a bit of a goofy basket to put all of your defensive eggs into) just is simply not effective.
a well prepared and coached bills team would have walked over atl and won by double digits. over power the small fast front, use multi backs and tes to wear them down, and trickery to pass on them with play action and out of heavy sets. i give the credit to the d adjusting in the 2nd half, it shoulda been enough for a win. the d was "lucky" in the first half w atl not getting the touch at the end, but also atl was lucky to have the fumble called back, the garbage 3rd down DPI, and the sack on 1st prior to the long td run take out by penalties.
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has has a road stinker every year, last year it was houston, same thing too, in both games he was missing his best weapon (shakir then, kinkaid now, and then also palmer). im not worried about josh.
what i'm po'd about tho, is that raisin bag brady just can't line up w our best match ups, cook and multi te's, and pass out of run sets or run play action to save his own life. he also went too much zone vs gap runs vs atl as well, like how hard is it to see what does and doesn't work? the d blows and is super hurt, but they seem to figure things out on a week to week basis (albeit with some just shockingly bad statistics), how can the OC not just go to strength 4 drives a game instead of 2?
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im a hater and for the past 4 off seasons i wanted to move on. I still do, but given where we are now the two best coaches/roles in our building are kromer on OL, and McD as a DC. they both have succeeded many times at a high level in those roles. McD has been an overall successful HC, but given that the expectations are a chip, he's not been all the way there. I think right now he's got to really take his stamp and mark the D, either wake babbich up, over see more, or just call plays as needed (he may have done so at the end of the last game for all i know). on O, frankly he has to realize what brady does wrong and actually make him do the right thing. it's not something he's really done before, aside from firing dorsey and promoting brady, but it's what he has to do to make the next step.
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2023 bernard blew me away, i think that says something about mcd as dc vs the trash bag stuff we've had since.
bernard has been hurt too much, and he has been pretty garbage this season. i hope he and the whole d really turn it up, but he and shakir and benford have not been living up to their contracts so far, which i thought were ok to good at the time.
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i think we can go super jumbo like baltimore did last year. just maul teams up front from time to time, and pass out of it to the tight ends or back, or single WR if they coverage brakes down.
brady is creative with odd mixes of people and strange playcalls, but he hasn't found a way to show one look and run lots of different things (that work) out of it.
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Josh is not great at the pre snap reads, not all the time anyhow, but to me a huge part of that is simply coaching. He's never had an OC who's had anything approaching actual success on the NFL level without riding his coat tails.
the film is out, you can beat the bills O locking down the outside, confusing josh with overloads and such. the solution to this is not for Josh to literally be perfect, it is to have an idea what the D wants to do, and what our O can do to best advantage themselves.
this is part of what i see as the fatal flaw of the buffalo bills as they exist today. we do not impose a high degree of difficulty on the opponents O with our d scheme, and we always seem to operate our own O with a super high degree of difficulty. it's just never easy simple plays that we can run whenever we want, like oh i don't know, a TE wide open in the flat like kelce always is, or a freaking screen to a running back like opponents always seem to have success against us with.
ironically right now, i think (particularly if mcd takes over d play calling) the d with new infusions of health and talent can really turn a corner. they have sucked outright for chunks of every game but the jets one (doesn't count), but they have also played their own style and really brought the pain for chunks of games as well. if our o can find it's pace, and it has had that many times even since brady was the OC, all we need out of the o is like 4 real hard stops and we can win it all. we need mcd to find a new gear as a HC and to right the ship on O.
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i think the pocket passing breakdowns are a function of our WRs sucking out loud, but even more so play calling. we seem to not want to use effective play action, no matter how successful it is, and the stats show we run 80% from under center and pass 80% from shotty. the d has every advantage on 4 out of 5 plays against us, so you are going to see allen struggle because aside from showing if we pass or run, we also are back to not being able to pick up blitzes and stunts.
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1 minute ago, Bruffalo said:
Nothing has to be purposely rigged for the rules to be enforced unfairly and with bias.
The Bills opponents O-Lines have had a single holding call levied against them in 6 games, do you think that's because they never held? I certainly don't.
Intentionally or subconsciously on the part of the refs doesn't particularly matter. There has been a real verifiable disparity in distribution of calls that goes beyond random chance.
Now I'll say this again: The refs are not the only reason why the Bills have lost the last two games, far from it. They are a contributing factor though, and when it appears that those calls or lack thereof are biased or unfounded, it is extremely frustrating.
the bills not forcing the issue is part of it too IMO. this far off coverage makes it hard to ride and hide the holding out of the brake, the lack of crowded fronts make it hard to get mucky up front, atl was doing that and so was NE. i remember when we played the delay rush spy game vs kc in the past two reg season wins over them. our LB spy/late rusher would maul any wr in a shallow pattern, and i think it might have gotten called 1 out of 10 times. if you press the issue you make it hard for the ref to call the penalty (the cb mugging coleman all day was let go because it was at least 5050 half the time). if you play finesse ball, your physical play is more obvious and gets called more.
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i remember when i worked in London a colleague of mine mentioned that there are tiny airstrips all over the UK that private flyers can just book and take off and land from. it was part of him describing how the UK favors putting a little bit of resources into everything to have something for everyone rather than a real determined focus to pick what one wants to do well and put resources into that.
IMO, that's the exact problem with our team right now. we have lots of nifty things, lot's pass rushers on d who sit more than half the game, lots of tight ends who can block and run, and what seems like 4 slot WRs and 3 backs (two of whom sit on any given play) who can do a few things. furthermore, our philosophy on o is sprinkling the ball around out of many groupings and formations, to give teams more things to study on tape. on D, we like to have eight reads for each person in the back 7 and four calls to be made pre snap so everyone can be on the same page, and we are trying to defend everything all at once. clearly, this approach is not working.
on the all 22 of one of the plays, i saw ATL overload blitz, press man all over, and rode the back out of the back field so he wasn't an outlet (the back ran to the offense's right). the slot wr on the left was uncovered, no one within 10 yards of him. they gambled because they had confidence on what we were going to do, and were willing to take a risk at a super easy first down (and more) if allen and the O picked it up. they saw our tendencies and decided to not let us pick our best shot on O, and dared us to press the matter, which we did not and just took our best non 17 weapon off the field for the last like 4 drives. Our D ends up giving up giant gashing plays underneath the coverage that will die before it allows a deep pass, but it still seems to produce some stops and maybe turnovers after getting totally cooked for long periods of time (don't get me wrong, the d sucks). on O, we have somehow backed ourselves into a corner where if we do anything wrong and get behind the sticks, none of it works. the silly jet sweeps would work if executed perfectly, but for what, 12 yards? meanwhile targets to tight ends out of play action are easy mode plays that pick up chunks and TDs, and passes to backs are similar. to diversify your game on O but still be fragile is a foolish thing to do, having the ol and qb make hard reads into blitzes which simply would not work if we used different formations or groupings is the height of arrogance. i'm not saying go back to 5 wide empty and just throw the rock like we did in 2021, but we have to have a couple things we can go back to when we need production, and the OL, QB, TE, and RB talent we have is so so so much better than our WRs that i'd be quite happy to see more than 1 WR on the pitch less than 25% of the time.
we present a degree of difficulty with our D that is near the lowest in the nfl, it can make some stops with great DL play, but it doesn't actually force the O to take any bait or get out of their comfort zone. On O, we seem to refuse to go for easy mode stuff, and rely on coleman one on one, or a back picking up a free runner, or the OL to diagnose and stop all blitzes instead of maybe running a screen.
OP is 100% correct we need to make our best players the focus of the O, and having a screen game, less predictability (80% run from under center, 80% from shotgun is disgusting), and chucking the no reward trick plays into niagra falls is a great start.
remember the fake punt in the playoffs vs kc, the flea flicker vs baltimore in 2024, and the jet sweeps to our 2nd best TE and maybe 4th WR in the past two games? i think brady might not be capable of learning what works vs what doesn't. every time we show a look that murks people, we throw it away for some weak stuff that the players clearly don't have confidence in.
Will McD ever have a coaching tree?
in The Stadium Wall
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Mcd has daboll, who might somehow keep his job at nyg this sesaon. if brady goes to pen st, i don't think you'd be able to include him unless he returns to the nfl.
just like no one views the OCs who have come out of ried's staff lately as hot prospects because they see the O as really belonging to andy, i think you'll get the same thing on the d side of the ball for mcd.
given how no good coaches come out of buffalo, and outside of wyatt teller no good players have come out of buffalo (maybe settle too, but he was a player elsewhere, and kinda sorta not really puna ford and diggs), either mcd is a figgen genius or josh, dawkins, and a couple other guys have just been good enough to get by and almost get there.
given how consistent our problems on D have been vs good coaches (basically either kc walks all over us in the playoffs, or other teams like indy w rivers, cincy in 2022) or LITERALLY EVERY TEAM WITH AN ELITE BACK AND PLUS QB and that allen is one of one with his touchdown producing magic, i tend to think mcd is not a genius and allen has literally saved this crap front office for years.
it's also the consensus opinion of outspoken nfl analysts and handy cappers. we are strong favorites in the majority of our games, and at most like 3 point under dogs vs the absolute best. if allen didn't play i don't think we'd be favored over most teams save the raiders and the jets.