colin
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Posts posted by colin
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30 minutes ago, Iiiiiiiiive Got a Feeeelin said:
Groot has had injuries in 2 seasons so far that have allegedly hampered his play(high ankle sprains both times i believe). although those seasons in hindsight looked pretty similar to this last one when was healthy
knox, von, and milano have signed contracts which did damage to this team because of injuries. i feel like we might face the same thing with groot, bernard, and benford. guys who miss games, or have their play fall off hard due to injury, but are on big contracts essentially crush your team. injuries happen of course, but some guys just get hurt more than others.
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4 hours ago, stevestojan said:
He didn’t slow them down. Jim and Marv had such hubris that they refused to keep running, despite three down lineman on the other side of the ball and Thurman averaging over 9 yards a carry.
Ego and coaching lost us that game - not a kicker who had been mediocre at best (69% on the SEASON) being asked to do something he never had (47 yards on grass - 35 years before 60 yarders were commonplace).
Bill didn’t need help. He begged us to keep running and Jim’s arrogance and Marv’s refusal to override his star QB was all he needed.
(The thumbs down button is the second from the bottom for those that believe Marv and Jim should never be judged or questioned).
Lol, do people still think Marv is gonna win us one in the end?
It was kinda the same thing with cook killing KC on runs last week, but the sb25 game was more insane because of how our d was also keeping them from scoring points And they a back up QB! Like, can you think of a better time to push a dominant running attack?
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18 minutes ago, Dan said:
You can’t say we need top end talent in the same post that you advocate for trading Cook. He is top end talent. You get better by keeping your top end talent and adding more…
not by switching one out for the other.
Second point, you shouldn’t use the Rams as your measuring stick for trades, because they were monsters in the playoffs. They got beat in the divisional round. We made it to the Championship game. We need to do better than the Rams.
Nah, I said I'd be willing to if we also added high end talent to the o, but I'd rather give up another pick. Of cook was the only way to do it I would given a sick wr addition.
I use the Rams because:
They won a chip
They put a 1 overall and an extension into a QB who got them to a chip but not a win, so they made moves to trade him and picks for staffy. They also traded a pick in season for miller (when he was still good) and traded picks for Jalen Ramsey as well, and have had big hits on draft picks.
They were close but messed up the biggest thing which is QB, and still won a chip by not being risk averse and went and traded qbs. That's a huge thing to overcome and they did it.
They also got themselves in cap jail before, got out and then won a chip with big cap moves, and are good yet again. They value too end talent above all else, particularly at top value positions, and will do what is necessary to get it. The bills have made aggressive in season moves, but for hines and Douglas and amari cooper (I think if he never broke his wrist he might have gotten us over, but the other two moves were not at all for too talent). We made the move of extending diggs for absolute tippy top wr money, at the wrong age and with his production declining. To me, that's a scaredy half measure. He wasn't worth that and they just would rather over pay their own guy who can't get it done than take a risk.
The clearest issue from a sort of pro MCD POV is that we lack pass rush, now they made the move for von, but the contract reworkings (after von got hurt) and extension of diggs shut the door for them to really bring in a top pass rusher.
I'm not a fan overall of our front office, but they saw a need for QB, wr, and pass rush and they made moves and at least for part of all of those they worked. They got a little gun shy imo and soaked up the cap and picks on non difference makers (all the fa dl, Knox type contracts) and didn't keep powder dry to make the splash they needed too.
I hope they make the moves they need to this off season and get one too flight guy and one elite guy at two of Cb, de/Dr, wr
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On 1/30/2025 at 7:09 PM, Magox said:
This guy with one of the second round picks could be interesting. He will probably be the fastest guy in the combine. Incredibly talented just is kind of raw and had issues with drops.
He plays as fast as what his timed speed is which will be in the 4.2’s
Good physical blocker as well.
If he has his head on straight and works on his craft I could see him being a game breaking WR.The way that guy looked in those drills reminded me of Terrell Owens.
TO was unique in that he ran all his routes full speed. Helmet would go over his eyes, head leaning way forward over his front foot, most coaches think of that as a mistake, but he made it work.
TO also had real hands issues early, lots of drops often from the in a hurry way he always played.
This guy might amount to jack, but that's who he reminds me of
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I'd give up cook and picks for Maxx if we also added a monster outside wr. Even then, I'd rather trade two picks for Maxx.
I'd also look at a few other pass rushers for trade if available, and I'd throw some picks at DL as well. The Rams got serious pass rushers in the past couple drafts, they were monsters in the playoffs.
We need top end talent, and then fill the holes w cheap young guys. That's exactly what the Rams and KC have done.
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I know mcbeane have supporters here, but the fact of the matter is if they didn't select Josh Allen neither of their names would have been mentioned once by anyone after they got fired here. Maybe MCD gets a DC job
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why didn't i think of this! lol
mcd's ds have been hot dog water for the bills in every playoff (possible exception vs jaxonville, which is shocking given how weak that roster was). i think the most charitable take is that his d needs good secondary and an elite front to work. on the flip side, allen is so shockingly good in the playoffs every time he plays he extends a record.
i'll say once again my dream for the bills this offseason, short of a never gonna happen thing of getting bellickeck.
1. deep threat boundry wr w sick talent. if we had that, we extend a couple drives, score more points, and beat kc this year and last. two chips in our pocket. diggs was never this by the way.
2. better secondary. ours is just too bad. stud cb, really solid value cb, something at cb. and at least two new S. i have hope still for bishop, but hamlin and rapp are not it.
3. pass rush. i actually see this as a lower priority than above, houston and denver have the best pass rushes, and sick secondaries, and they got eaten buy kc and us respectively. we need help here, but im a bit torn. i will lean a bit to saying go get a monster because mcd has had monster d's in carolina with hardy being a total terror on the edge.
4. just talent. lots of young guys. we at least showed willingness to sell out vs the run, play man, and blitz this season, so maybe we will have some scheme diversity? make it so you never have aj klien, hamlin, elam, morrow, an injured douglas, or any of the total cheeks street free agents we've had in the DL rotation getting serious burn on your team. Toohill and i don't even remember the name at DT were getting long burn from us this season. that's way too crappy.
put a good cb, a monster DE, and throw rookies all over our D and by the playoffs we might have a little gas to cook with. maybe force 2 punts vs baltimore and 3 or 4 vs kc even! add dk metcalf or tee higgins for josh, and instead of hollins getting the deep looks, it's a world beater. championship!
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43 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:
He was 33 years old when we signed him. That is so unbelievably risky, especially at the cost. Beane probably will never offer a large FA contract to a pass rusher over 30. That's why it's gotta be Garrett/ Crosby or bust in a trade.
what's worse to me, he was hurt before and he's a smaller more technical speed and skill guy. a guy like that loses his knee and speed and he's what we saw out there.
calais camble has been old fat and hurt for like 7 years and he's been all pro a couple times in that span. i remember an old scouting book (i think derived from bellichek's guide he wrote while coaching at navy) that read "power fits all schemes".
i poop all over mcd, but looking back at his carolina Ds, he had luke and that other backer, made josh norman 50mm when he didn't have anywhere near top cb talent, and his d turned manning into mush (but cam newton turned into a pumpkin that game). the real part was short at DT and hardy the kraken (actual psycho and bottom tier human being) just destroying everyone off the edge.
maybe swapping an 1st and 2nd for maxx gets us to that level.
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39 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:
This is delusional as the pro bowl.
The ravens are less talented than Buffalo. At numerous spots.
The difference between Buffalo and kc is Chris Jones, bad luck with injury and coaching.... That's literally it.
The ravens don't have a single front player as good as Rousseau, Oliver, Bernard or Milano. They don't even have the talent of Dorian Williams at linebacker.
The bills oline completely manhandled the ravens.
I understand ppl are frustrated, and we need this eras Bruce Smith for Allen. But let's actually live in reality
Rousseau was one of the most dominant players at his position this year. He's not Chris Jones or Bruce Smith....
I think you are directionally correct in that we just need some real actual top end talent above what we have, but i have to disagree strongly on the raven's roster quality.
in terms of front 6 alone, r smith is a better player than anyone we have in our front 6 (maybe milano could compare in his best season, but he's missed the last two and is not as good as he was then, hope that changes). van noy and that other end (owah? don't remember how to spell his name) are at least for last season equal palyers at least to groot, and he's our best on DL. oliver is a boom bust guy, so from that POV you could say van noy was slightly better last year, but maybe you'd rather have oliver now given age.
DT is where there is just zero comparison. our 3rd round rookie got hurt and keeps the bench warm as a healthy scratch, they are 3 or 4 deep with just monsters who got them the number 1 run d in the nfl.
they have a hole at cb 2, but we have a giant chasm if douglas or benford went down. benford if he stays heathy might be a better corner than their cb1 next season, but we are without a cb2 after douglas walks (he's falling off himself). their safeties are miles and miles better than ours. they have the best in the nfl, we have what might be the worst set of safeties in the nfl, and they get hurt a lot.
on O, our OL is better but not by miles, lamar and josh are neck and neck in most eyes but i'd say josh is def better. henry and their back up are better than ours, ours are good, henry is a hall of famer. their TEs are head and shoulders above ours, they both block and catch (andrews made his *****, kinkaid made his) and at wr neither squad is great but flowers is better than anything we have by a margin and of course he was hurt.
baltimore has an actual monster roster, but we got luck and played a good game and allen is better than lamar.
if you get my wish list, add like higgins or metcalf (or whoever i just thought of those guys) at WR1, mayyybe small upgrade on interior OL or torrence just becomes the best he can, and add a real quality cb and double digit sack DE, then you have a real roster for buffalo that can compare (albeit not necessarily totally outshine) with the baltimore roster.
we need a slam dunk or two and a few hits to fill in holes to be there with them. totally doable in a season but it would be our FO's greatest offseason since the one where they got allen.
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mcd gets guys to play super hard, want to play when medically they absolutely should not, and they all love playing for him. he has a scheme on d that lives by taking away the deep ball. the bills are always top of the top in stopping the deep ball.
schematically, the old saying is a good dc will take away what you do best and make you beat them with something else. when that best thing is deep passes, mcds d can make for a really long day for opponents (denver got one off vs us and then just floundered with the best d in the nfl barely keeping them in the game).
the problem is they are a one note band. if you can attack something else, they will still take away the deep pass. they are purpose built to stop the deep pass, and while capable of doing so with what at times is bottom 4 nfl talent in the secondary, there is a cost to play like this. the biggest cost for us is particular scheme fit requirements for players (example: aj klien playing over dorian williams last year vs kc at home) that leaves us in a lurch if any of our small and not fast guys (who we have because they are a scheme fit) inevitably get hurt because we either don't have scheme fit back ups, or he can't trust them/build them up in time to fit.
this is mcds team. he says what players he wants drafted and beane gets them. beane is not great at getting them, and has made obvious and clear contract mistakes (extending von, i'll accept going for him in the first place, extending knox, extending diggs). as i just said, those mistakes are extending the guys mcd has affinity for to contracts that exceed their value. every time we let a guy test free agency, with the exception of edmunds who is a legit on paper monster talent, their contract ends up being a failure (phillips) or they come crawling back (poyer, aj). he is too fixed in building his team his way that it just doesn't lead to value.
bellicheck was like that, except his scheme was predicated on big strong guys (get hurt less, when they are tired they are still big and strong, a little d gets slower, see our d at the end of games, or the atlanta loss to NE in the superbowl, their d was epically gassed), and he has enough wrinkles in his scheme to change it up for injury or for teams who don't prioritize throwing the ball deep.
mcd is better, potentially much better, at what he does than what beane does (he was a successful but not champion dc before, and he really does get this team that is not top 10 in talent, not top 16 outside of allen, to play as hard as they can). the rub is similar to bellichek or parcels, he has a big influence on what the gm does (he hired him for crying out loud) so he owns this more than beane does.
the rams are a very purpose built team. their hc is a better oc than mcd is dc, but he's also a one side of the ball guy. they also really fall off hard with injuries as a team, like our d does (on o, allen is just so good he patches holes, if he went down we are done). the difference is mcvey and their GM have identified what top talents they desire and shoot for the moon to get them, and overall have been way better at drafting impact guys (i think you can argue the bills have had really good success in later rounds with value picks). i think that approach must be taken with our FO -- they did it with allen and diggs and it paid off huge (second diggs contract notwithstanding). if they need a pass rush, go make that happen. if they need an outside guy, make that happen. no more of this half measure of drafting aj, groot, and boogie with your top 3 picks in 2 seasons to "solve" the pass rush, no more new rb in the 3rd or 2nd (or a trade like hines) every single year.
allen on the rams (if they did a rams move and traded goff and got him) and the rams win like 3 or maybe even more chips since then. aaron donald, maybe ramsey, or puka or a couple of their top flight pass rushers on the bills, and we win 2 or 3. we got the hardest part done w the qb, and now we have an OL and a run game, we need to go over the top.
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elite is a bit of a tough term, are there 100 elite players in the nfl? 64, 32?
I think you can put players into the "blue chip" or whatever bracket -- players that make players around them better, who could start for all bet very few teams, who everyone wants.
now, some of that is positional. everyone needs CBs and OL/DT just not enough men on the planet who can do that job, so those guys are "elite" or blue chip just for being very good at their position. low value positions, TE, OG/OC (still need them, but no where near OT), safety, kinda running back (the rub there is they make huge impacts in the game, but they seem to be good out of college and fall off quickly, so people don't like to sign them and the pass game is more important now more than say 10 years ago).
qb doesn't even fall into this. qb is so so important and impactful that going from a just replacement guy (say bridgewater or sam darnold) to a seasoned guy with flaws but solid production (kirk cousins) means back up/maybe gets a contract on a discount to start to 40MM+++ a year, and there is a huge premium on anyone who is young and maybe can become higher level (goff, lawrence, dude in zona) so they get 50+ anyhow. that bust off in NYG got 45 a year, but they let barklay walk for 10mm. to me that's more of a resource management/contract thing than how much the individual payers impact winning games.
so, from that POV who are the bill high value players, the ones who make their entire side of the ball better?
1 Allen. Literally the GOAT. he's worth at least 2 and maybe more actual elite talents at nearly any other position
2 Cook. Our best weapon, makes an impact. I think if he got to like above average at pass pro he's elite. he's a top 5 tail back in the nfl
3 dawkins. not the best LT, but a top 5 one. huge positional value
4 brown. lower than LT value, but he's an actual monster. gets exposed in some outside rush situations vs great pressure teams, but allen was least sacked ever and brown run blocks like a maniac
5 benford. position value, and is a very very good corner. not prime gilmore or ramsey or surtain, but more often than not takes away or limits a teams best weapon. big and athletic but not a kyle hamilton (lower position value tho) who is just so big and athletic and skilled that he's an impact on every play. I have injury concerns
next layer
6 Johnson. lower position value than outside cb, but at his best was legit our best player on D in many games vs run and pass. small and not a natural cover corner like the top outside guys, but solid in everything and an absolute dog
7 Milano. Lower position value, biggest issue is his injuries. in 2022 he was maybe behind warner and one or two other guys as the best off ball lb in the nfl. lacks the speed power size combo of a prime roquan smith/cj mosely (how do they all end up at baltimore?) but always made large impacts. im hopeful he can get back to form in 2025, but the most likely thing is he will be really good but not what he was
8 ed oliver. very inconsistent, gets washed in the run too much. he basically plays rock paper scissors all the time. he disappears too much and isn't a big guy at all so he can't just plug up like other top dts can. when he's on he shoots gaps recklessly and just totally disrupts plays with individual play. his games vs the rams and detroit show me who is more than any others. rams game he was basically trash, no impact at all, nothing close to a forced punt or turnover and didn't get a sniff of a not mobile qb. detroit he totally dominated the game, and covered up huge secondary deficiencies by dominating vs the best O and about the best OL in football.
9 Groot. big long strong DE, except for some breakdowns vs mahomes has been a top of the pile run/edge defender. creates pass rush but cannot impact the passing game effectively on a consistent basis
10 Shakir. small, not fast, not a super crisp route runner. plucky tough smart dependable and has a mind link with allen. our best (only?) passing weapon, but limited in what Ds he can attack from where
IMO those are our top 10 players. Bernard and williams show flashes, but injuries/mistakes keep them below. i was hoping kinkaid would break out this year but he did the opposite, im sure a pcl didn't hep, but he's physically weak as an nfl TE and he's not young for a 2 year player. a cabinet of steroids and weight room addiction might put him in the dangerous offensive weapon category. torrence might become more fleet of foot and aware and become a top 10 G, but he's no there at all yet.
to answer the question, do we have enough elite talent to win a chip: i think we are knocking on the door or are one or two players away in that regard. a guy who could beat out one of the 10 above at outside wr would mean we are 6ish players on O who are in that upper tier, with josh allen and a line like we have that's a shot at an all time O with a little OL play improvement in pass pro (i mean very little, just a tiny bit).
on d our scheme and talent leaves a ton to be desired. we had far and away the worst d in the afc playoffs, and based on our prior playoffs, i think it's safe to say our D would have been the worst or tied for the worst even if it was it's best, say our 2021 or 2022 D. i think get the outside wr talent, and just plug up our many athletic and player holes w picks on d (safety, CB but i would also sign a guy if he's there, DL/pass rush where a top guy would help too, LB should be solid but you worry about depth given injury history, and our DTs kinda totally suck nearly as bad as safety).
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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:
Every team spends resources on both sides of the ball...but saying we "dumped" resources is just not accurate.
We used 3 of our last 5 first round picks on weapons for Josh. We have used 4 of our last 6 picks in the first 2 rounds of the draft on offense. We had a draft a couple years ago where I think the entire draft but one pick was offense. We already spent our 3rd this year on a WR in Cooper. No disrespect, but we have been offensive heavy for 3 straight seasons before this one.
I don't mean what has happened lately, I mean what happened before. After we got Diggs and had breakout Allen under a rookie contract (going into the 2021 and 2022 seasons, before our recent push on the OL and adding Kinkaid, Cook, Coleman, etc) we were mad D heavy. Tre was on his big extension, Milano was extended, we got Von for the 2022 season, we drafted AJ, Groot, and Basham in consecutive years, drafted Elam in 2022, drafted Bernard in the 3rd in 2022, had Edmunds on his 5th year, and signed a plethora of DL (sadly, none really worked out). we had the 1 and 2 ranked D in those years.
So we did this push to build the D, and even with great regular season statistical success, they folded like a cheap suit in the playoffs. Our O was and continued to be awesome in the playoffs, only stinker was cinci and the d was even worse in that game.
I'm simply applying the scientific method -- when we made moves to shore up the O (trading for diggs, bolstering the OL, putting resources into skill talent like cook, coleman, kincaid) our O just got better, even when those moves included some misses. When we made moves for the D (much much more in terms of signings, cap, and draft picks) we didn't have a better regular season record than in 2024 or 2020 when we had worse D's statistically, and the D folded just the same as it did this season when our talent was clearly less. So, we get our better returns on O than on D, in fact we basically eliminated our negative variance on O this season, fewest toxic plays (sack, turnover) in nfl history! based on this and what i see is our schematic/coaching/philosophical limitations on D, coupled with having 3 top 5 guys on O (cook, brown, dawkins) and the goat at QB, I think we can put the O way over the top with one or two moves, and would be wise to be cheaper faster and younger on D. I agree a real impact guy on DL or DB would be a huge gain, but it wouldn't put us over the top as clearly. DK metcalf, or Amari cooper of 2 years ago would have IMO.
44 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:Maxx is my wish list player, he is younger too. While I would definitely prefer to spend less than 2 first rounders, but given our firsts are so late, I wouldn't object to sending this years and next years first for either player.
My wish list offseason would be see if we can get Maxx for a first and change and then see if we can send one of our 2nds to Seahawks for DK. Not going to pretend to know how to make that work with the cap, but I would bet there is a path to make it work. We land Maxx and DK, I don't care what we do with the rest of the roster, we are SB favorites next year.
Admittedly, I would think that is highly unlikely we could get both...but that is why this I called it my "wish list" lol. But if I can choose one or the other, I am going Maxx for sure.
Where i disagree is i go DK over maxx -- in good part because his contract will be cheaper and i think he costs less picks to get, but the other reasons are as i've stated above. I'm also kinda thinking a top CB might help our D more, but again that's value influenced (i think a top 12 guy at CB and some picks makes our secondary kinda nasty, i think maxx crosby helps the d more over the season statistically, but kc could scheme around him more than a secondary.
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20 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:
16th highest scoring offense in history...that was the Bills this year. We had the most wins in history by 20+ points. Allen set multiple individual records.
Now...there are only so many drives in a game that we get...for your theory to work would mean we are not scoring at a high rate. But we do score at a high rate, more than anyone the past 5 seasons.
You guys don't understand how much harder it is to increase our score by 7 points per game. That would literally ties us for the #1 offense in the history of the NFL with the 2013 Broncos...who got destroyed in the SB scoring only 8 points against a defensvie and run first team. Just like the former #1 offense Patriots got shut down in their SB to a mediocre wild card Giants team with a wicked DL.
Just because we go all in on some huge WR doesn't not by any means we score "more" points. And let me tell you, its a LOT easier to add a difference maker to our defense who can just affect one more play/drive and get KC (or whoever) off the field one more time instead of allowing a scoring drive than it is to add a player to your offense that transforms your offense into the greatest offense in history.
So its not the solution people think it is, nor is it as feasible as people think it is.
I disagree. our coaching staff has dumped resources into the D and had good regular season stats with worse regular season records (in years when the O was really good too, just not as good/consistent as it is now) and still sucked balls in the playoffs. multiple times.
our path to a chip based on where we are now and with who our coaches are is to get a top flight vertical weapon WR on O, maybe improve interior pass pro (just one guy, can be a draft pick or a value signing), get one real guy on D (pass rush or CB, im leaning CB) and then just draft bodies on the D, BPA on that side of the ball.
bishop elam douglas hamlin and johson was a horrible skill/speed/size mix for nearly half of the defensive players vs kc, and an off injury milano and banged up bernard were not very effective either. our back 7 as a unit was a disaster vs baltimore and KC. trying to turn them into the 85 bears is a fool's errand, our coaching has shown they cannot produce a big game D, but can produce a big game O. aim for average on D, at a good price, and have this o take the small step it needs to literally be the best ever.
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well, i'm a corch hater, and the data shows me mcd's Ds are putrid in the playoffs. in fact they feast vs teams who can't find the one thing they can really beat us at, and totally fall apart against a high quality qb with weapons/scheme or a power run team that commits to it. even when we were ranked 1 and 2 in the nfl on d, the playoff EPA and the EPA vs teams that fit the above profile would fall off a cliff.
I think large investment in the D at this juncture is foolish. we have had rookie contract allen and massive investment in D. between our scheme, coaches, and the talent we got, we had stellar regular season stats, poorer regular season records (largely because the daboll offense was super boom or bust, puttin gup 45 or janky teams and scoring like 6 vs the jags, for example), and most importantly still awful playoff performances on D and even more importantly poor playoff d performances vs the cheifs.
So what should we do?
I say we got ham on an outside WR, i'd rather trade a pick for dk metcalf on a cheaper contract than break the bank and give no picks for higgens, for example, but we need a game changing talent on the outside. we have a roster of slot players and mack hollins.
also, some kind of up grade on interior blocking. we can draft or sign someone, it's not going to break the bank, even for a really good (not top 5, but like top 15 or 20) interior guy. this is building on what might be the best strength of the team. a slight improvement in pass pro and maybe allen gets those first or last drive passes off cleanly and we win that game vs kc.
thirdly, i'd look to acquire an impact pass rusher or CB. we need more people in the secondary (and some kind of depth, elam cannot have a game like he did vs kc), we need to replace douglas, we need flexibility incase benford is done or wants too much to re up, we need at least one new safety, and we must consider the future at nickle as well. we would benefit most of the time more w an impact pass rusher, but if we added one d player to beat kc on sunday, pat surtain would have helped us more than maxx crosby because the ball came out so fast because our coverage and scheme was so easy to exploit, so i think our most critical need is an improvement in coverage.
beyond that, i say use our many draft picks to get BPA on the defensive side of the ball as much as possible. i'll need to trust our FO a little bit to not just over draft scheme and character fits, but to have the foresight to tinker w the scheme a bit so that the best available athletes/players can get burn. kc won a chip with a ton of rookies starting on D, we can do that same. if we can get middle of the pack on 3rd down on D, and just not allow total cake walks like we did vs baltimore and kc, our d will contribute much more to us winning. this might require mcd to work past his phobia of allowing a long pass in order to get more stops.
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baldinger was on bussin w the boys. he dropped some stat, i didn't check it, but something like how the chiefs have no holding calls on offense in teh playoffs, or very very few.
1000+ snaps, mostly vs top defenses in the nfl, and no holding?
i mean, we saw groots helmet come off on a play, he must have just pulled it off himself and we are lucky he didn't get flagged.
the sort of accepted unwritten rule that the refs put the whistles away in the playoffs is at best negligence. it just opens up room for selective enforcement of rules.
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while obviously i want to move on from the entire front office, i now think the only option going forward (as i presume there will not be FO changes) is:
1. Get a top flight outside WR. we have hollins down the field and zero else. he's a sub replacement guy prior to being here, but he got our only two solid deep pass plays. i say keep him cuz he's cheap and a dawg, and get higgins or someone in trade or FA who can ball out down the fild.
2. Look to get an upgrade on the interior OL. if we can draft a guy, who at worse would be depth, who might be able to start over one of our middle three, it could be huge. guard play was awful on some passing downs vs kc. if we get a C we can slide mcgovern back to guard, less ideal than just upgrading G, but i just want a front 5 who are great. right now we are really good, pretty monster in run blocking, but too many breakdowns in pass pro
3. CB. our cb play was just so awful vs kc, we need a real cb. i dunno if you nee a top 5 guy or just a good guy or whatever, but we need another one.
4. fill in every other hole with the draft and free agents who are dirt cheap. we don't need these dq jones and curtis samuel and that guy addison from years back players. replacement level guys who get paid more than replacement to make mcd feel good about having people he likes in back up positions just isn't worth the cap it drains from the rest of the pool. knox and milano are also contracts that hurt us, big contracts in non premium positions. knox is decent but paid like a great one (we even moved up to draft 86 after signing him. milano is a stud (or was) but he hasn't been a game changer in years (even then, an off ball lb can only do so much). for now we need youth and talent and just get guys in places.
and sadly, that's it. with mcd we can be certain our d will not be good in the playoffs, so we need to add talent to ensure they don't totally blow, and go hard on the O so allen has weapons and protection to get 39 instead of 29 vs kc.
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28 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:
Ooooh, you came with stats! 🙄
Bottom line: the D made enough plays to get Josh the ball to win/tie the game. That's the game, not your fancy stats
the defense was one fluke fumble loss from allowing a TD on all four of their first half possessions. the ball was out fast and for a high YPA, they allowed more points than kc has scored all season. they sucked.
the bills o had a chance to score with not much time left in the game, sure, but points count for the same in all four quarters. if the d had forced a turnover or made an actual stop in the first quarter, the 7 points that came off the board then would count just the same as in any other.
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Just now, Rocky Landing said:
That ignores a lot of factors, including the concept that McDermott can improve as a coach from season to season. I think we probably both agree that the defensive roster in '22 was far better than in '24.
oh, it certainly was, and better in the 2021 season, and i'd say at least as good if not better in the 2023 season. exact same results every time, historically bad defense in the playoffs. schematically and philosophically we impose almost no difficulty on opposing offenses.
honestly, a big part of it is how absolutely scared of deep passes we are. on the qb school recap which was posted on this board (great youtube channel for x and o stuff) they guy was going on a bit about how we had a deep safety in the red zone, about how we had linebackers behind the line and sort of just kinda pre eliminated from getting to whichever edge kc chose to attack.
the kc attack vs us was so quick (i think we might have really over keyed on the inside runs, which we shut down but we had zero to the edges when mahomes just waddled in for tubs) that no level of pass rush from the front four would have impacted it very much. we had unblocked ends (by their design) on several pass plays and it didn't even hurry mahomes. our failure was at the back end, both because our talent is azz, and because schematically we are so afraid of a deep pass, seemingly even in the red zone, that we have guys back and can't do much to trick and disguise.
7 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:Players have to make plays.
And actually the Bills defense made enough plays to win the game. If you give Josh the ball, down 3 with 3 minutes left, that's on the offense to get it done.
mahomes had his highest epa game of the season and the highest success rate of his entire career. he's never once had a game where first downs came easier. in no way, in any world, did the defense make enough plays to win the game. they were horrible.
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allen was off on more throws than i would expect, he was yippy and excited.
if you replace allen on that team with any other qb in the nfl, including mahomes, you still lose and almost certainly by more.
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19 minutes ago, Sojourner said:
LolThat doesn’t help the accuracy of a Marvin Lewis comparison
didn't lewis get a chip as a dc w baltimore?
i might have to draft an apology to lewis for the comparison!
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1 hour ago, Rocky Landing said:
I don't have to look forward, no. I choose to.
lol wat
im just saying you can look back and answer the question of what mcds d looks like w a ton of picks and money invested -- it is historically awful come playoff time.
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6 hours ago, Doc Brown said:
I heard this idea somewhere that the Bills should just hire Spags. I'm a little weary our regular season win total given his head coaching history. I would feel way better about our playoff chances against the Chiefs though. I'm kidding by the way.
Re-watching that game it became pretty clear to me that our rosters were about equal but the coaches on KC mostly won in high leverage situations. Our two 4th and goal conversions being the exception. There was also a 4th and 1 conversion I believe right before the BS line spot on the following sequence. That Cook 2nd TD run was just unreal and he's starting to win me over that this might be the rare occasion you do give a RB a 2nd contract. Also, that one flip pass to Shakir with Allen dodging a free blitzer was a thing of beauty. Allen's instincts are just incredible and I believe they're the best in the league QB wise. I've never seen a quarterback point to a penalty in the pocket, make sure a flag is called, roll out of the pocket, and then throw deep to Coleman in double coverage because he knew it was a free play.
The Chiefs will always have that slight coaching advantage because it's like trying to compete with Lennon and McCarthy with Reid and Spags. You can try your best but you won't win. Just try and make it close and hope to get some breaks. Maybe the rare bad half that Mahomes played in the '21 AFC Championship game against the Bengals happens in one of these games. The only thing Beane and McDermott can realistically do is build a better roster. It's not like they've ever been blown out by the Chiefs besides that 2020 AFC Championship game when they were puppies like the Commanders this year.
i know you are joking, but i'd hire spaggs and just have him leave the offense alone. he runs the d, gives the O pointers on how easy some of our stuff is to beat, and he knows all about fat andy's tendencies.
at his worst he'd have our D allow mahomes his highest epa game of the season and highest success rate game of his career, which would exactly match what we just had (and our prior complete melt downs on D). he'd also hurt the kc d by not being there, and that would be enough for us to have won that game.
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3 minutes ago, Casey D said:
Sure. There were multiple calls and non-calls that were wrong. On the Elam facemask, the receiver had Elam's facemask too. On the 4th down tush push that failed, on the play before (3rd down) Knox or Dawson(can't remember which) made the line to gain but was marked short. On the subsequent play Allen clearly made it from multiple angles that he got about 1/3 of the ball over the line to gain but was called short.
Other examples, on a key short yardage Chris Jones was clearly offside-- 2/3 of his head is over the line-- which allowed him to blow up the play. On the KC punt return, a flagrant block in the back was not called. The Bishop/Worthy call, clearly the ball hit the ground. Hollins was called for an illegal formation when he asked the ref if he was OK, the ref said yes, then called a penalty anyway. There were more.
He also points out that Allen reverted to hero ball at times, and did not take critical gains he could have gotten on checkdowns. Also, a key bad throw to Samuel that was a short pass that would have been a huge gainer. Says Allen makes the pass 999 out of 1000.
sad.
i do remember seeing jones and maybe another guy up too tight to the line on the sneak. it's silly that pre snap procedural stuff like that can't be caught on the replay, and that no one spotted it to start.
i think kc is like the old ne teams in that they look deep into the details and observe what doesn't really get called, allowing their RT to line up way beyond legal depth all the time and getting called for it only sometimes, and crowding the heck out of the line vs us on the short yardage stuff.
between this game and the insane calls last game vs houston, i'm thinking there will be some rules committee action.
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5 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:
Cook was hurt.
was he really? do you have a link, or know what play he was hurt on?
tx
DLine Coaching
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Statistically this season we were better vs the run than the pass, quite a bit better in terms of EPA. Part of it is our d generally stopped big runs (not vs bmore, lol) w the back end, kinda allowed medium runs via light boxes, and got near the top in the NFL in stuff's because of shooting gaps and what not.
Vs the pass we were pretty awful, and now where showed that more than 3rd downs. I think our scheme has linemen running a lot more than most, so our linemen get tired.
I'm not really worried about all of that or the rotation or whatever. I'm worried about how any high level O can just lean on what they want to do and do it at will to us. In 21 and 22 when we had the 1 and 2 rates Ds in the NFL, the game splits were shocking. Blowing out creampuffs, while getting just trucked a few times (Indy and ne when they ran the ball all over us, and every single playoff game vs a non terrible offense).
We need talent on D, but we need to not have giant holes either. Given that our O had been a disgusting monster since 2020, and generally as good or better in the playoffs, I say build on strength, make the O out staple, and for the d I hope our FO can find a bit of flexibility to not lock the entire roster and scheme so narrowly so that we don't just totally capsize when benford or Milano or Johnson inevitably get injured. Also, if we get more scheme diverse guys (basically it means they have speed size and ability rather than just whatever it is that MCD loves so much) then if they crap the bed for the 6th consecutive time in the playoffs and we fire the FO, we aren't left with some rage tag squad of Hamlin and Elam and rapp.