Orton's Arm

Since you don't like my system, perhaps you should come up with one of your own. I'm curious to see what kind of system you create, and how this system would interpret Losman v2's performance versus his performance from this year.

I have mixed feelings about suggestion 1. Consider two FG drives, one of which goes 20 yards; the other of which goes 70 yards. In both drives, the QB's sole contribution was to complete a 12 yard pass on 3rd and 10. Is it nobler for a QB to benefit from good field position (the 20 yard drive) than from a good running game (the 70 yard drive)? Suggestion 2 is interesting. You point out that a QB shouldn't be punished because his defense can't get off the field, and I agree with that. But what about the QB who engineers long, clock-killing drives? A guy like that will have fewer drives because he's helping to kill the clock. So if you look at points per game, the clock killer QB will seem worse than he is. Your modification to points per drive would end this problem, and would judge the clock killer QB fairly. At first glance, your adjusted points per drive system seems like a clear improvement over adjusted points per game. The key is in implementation. You'd have to weed out kneel down drives, or drives where there was only enough time for two or three plays before time expired. You'd also have to eliminate drives which consisted only of running plays. At the margin you'll end up making judgement calls, "Was 53 seconds of game time, and no time outs, really a realistic opportunity for the QB to have led the offense to points?" I don't see these judgement calls as an intrinsic obstacle to the system's legitimacy, though they may lead a few contentious and unreasonable people to question its results.

Kelly the Fair and Balanced Dog isn't a hopeless loser, and actually leads a meaningful life. Now go back and read the above quote.

Thank you. Your posts have been islands of knowledge and honesty in a sea of ignorance and malignant distortion.

Glad to know you've appointed yourself to speak for the world at large. Where would the world be without you?

You just lost all your credibility with this post.

You're actually defending syhuang? Dude, don't embarrass yourself.

In the unlikely event that I had been the one to make the error, you'd be calling it a grammatical mistake. And, for once in your life, you'd be right.

None of this is true, and the bolded part is egregiously false. I'm done arguing with you.

You're as wrong about that as you are about my knowledge of stats. There's an apostrophe in the word "it's" when it's short for "it is" "it has" or some other contraction. The apostrophe takes the place of the missing letter or letters. In this case, the word "its" was being used as the gender-neutral equivalent of "his" or "her." There is no missing letter, there is no contraction, and therefore the apostrophe is inappropriate.

To some extent a QB creates his own pass attempt ratio. If you complete a 12 yard pass on 3rd and 10, you'll get more pass attempts than the guy who didn't make that completion. So in general, pass attempt ratio isn't a good way of dividing up games. The other method you suggest--using a time halfway between the Holcomb injury and JP entering the game--seems reasonable. Doing that gets Losman v2 charged an extra five minutes, and lowers his adjusted points per game from 12 down to 11.8. I hope this pleases you. The fact that you endlessly repeat this doesn't make it true. Wrong! The ten yard threshold system I originally used retains the three drives in question. It doesn't require any modification or judgement calls or anything to keep those three drives in. Most people looking at those drives would feel the 10 yard threshold system produced the right result. There is no discussion about whether I applied those rules in some cases or not. There are only two relevant facts: that I applied the 10 yard threshold consistently, and the fact that you don't understand this. The sole point I was making in mentioning outliers, independent variables to test for, and alpha levels was to show that judgement calls will always be a part of statistics.

The next time you criticize my intelligence, try using correct grammar.

It was so cute when it came out of the delivery room. It had a very good childhood. But once it had its first menstral cycle, it was all over. Which post do I consider the equivalent of that first period? I'll leave that question to the reader's imagination.

Since Losman came into the game with 5 minutes left in the second quarter, I redid the numbers with him getting charged for 35/60 of a game. As a result, his points per game fell from 12.2 down to 12. I hope this pleases you. Didn't I address this issue before? I feel like we're going in circles here. Wrong. There are always judgement calls. Throwing out outliers is to some extent a judgement call. Deciding on an acceptable alpha level is a judgement call. Which independent variables to test for is a judgement call. Yes, it always pays to ask whether the wrong judgement call was made. I give you credit for doing that here. And yes, choosing 10 yards as a threshold is a judgement call. But after looking at the drives that would have been thrown out with a 15 or 20 yard threshold, I feel the 10 yard threshold was the right judgement call. Do you feel differently? Do you feel that ignoring those two TD drives (including the 2 TD passes and the 30 yard run) would produce a more accurate depiction of Losman's contribution during his second stint from last year? If you do, feel free to argue your case. If not, kindly stop arguing with mine.

Both your numbers and your conclusions are incorrect. First, the numbers. I gave Losman (2005, v2) credit for the following: - KC game: 11 points (2 TD drives, minus three points for a drive that started in FG range) - SD game: 10 points - Carolina game: 9 points - Miami game: 18 points (3 TDs, minus three points for a drive that started in FG range) - NE game: 7 points Total: 55 points. Then I divided by 4.5, because Losman had played in four and a half football games. Had Losman been the Bills' QB for both halves of the KC game, I would have divided by five. 55 points/4.5 games = 12.2 points per game. Onto the logic portion of your post. Earlier, you made various accusations against me, because I chose a 10 yard threshold instead of a 15 or 20 yard threshold. I responded by asking people to look at the drives from 2005 that your 15 yard and 20 yard thresholds would require be thrown out. Especially on the two TD drives, it was quite clear that Losman made a meaningful contribution. Adopting the 20 yard thresholds you mentioned would result in Losman (2005 v2) losing all credit for two TD passes and a 30 yard run. I do not feel my system should be changed with the intention of producing this result. Others may disagree, and in the end it is a judgement call. Under the rules of the 10 yard threshold, Losman v2 retains credit for both those TD passes, as well as the FG drive I mentioned. You bring up a valid point in saying that it's easier to march 20 yards into FG range, than it is to march 60 - 70 yards to get that FG. I agree the system I've designed makes only a crude attempt to capture this distinction, by deducting 3 points from any scoring drive that begins inside FG range. However, the solutions to this problem you pose would result in a system that would be far more complex than my present system. Given that one of the loudest complaints leveled against my present system was its level of complexity (and implied statistical distortion), I was less than eager to double or triple the system's complexity. I don't feel this one system is an end-all, be-all. It's just one way of looking at the numbers. You also have to look at other data, such as yards per attempt, TD/INT ratio, things like that. If all those numbers seem to tell the same story, then maybe that story is true. On the other hand, it's always possible that changes in the supporting cast or quality of defenses or something caused a distortion in the numbers. Is Losman playing better this year than in his second stint from last year? In the end, the question is a judgement call.

Is he any relation to Bungee Jumper?

Good. So now that you've admitted this thread is stupid, will you finally let me close it?

Let me put it in simpler terms: the next time you attempt a 50' jump, don't use a 60' bungee cord. The more extra cord you give yourself, the greater the resulting head injury. Based on the content of your earlier post, I estimated that your cord was ten feet too long. Less foolish posts will result in lower estimates.

First you protect this stupid thread like it was your firstborn son, then you cry about the results of having done so. Nice.

Based on the content of your posts, I'm going to start guessing how much longer your bungee cord was than it should have been. This is at least a ten foot post.

First off, nothing I've ever seen you write on these boards demonstrates an adult level of maturity. Whether you have a "grown up voice" is, as far as I'm concerned, very much up in the air. Second, the last thing I want is for you to start kissing my private parts the way you've kissed some other people's.

I assume your mental illness is what's caused you to spend so much time on the PPP boards. I've been questioning the sanity of my decision to a) come over here, and b) attempt to engage in reasonable (non-flame) discussions. I don't want to paint with too broad a brush, but many of the people here exhibit all the maturity, wisdom, and intelligence of an average five year old.

How long was that bungee cord again?

You know what I'm tired of? Moderators who see flame wars as a literal heat source for their cold Alaska homes. I'm tired of posters who a) use too long a cord when bungee jumping, and then b) proceed to make comments about celebrating terrorist attacks or about my knowledge of statistics. I'm tired of Ramius sucking on the private parts of anyone who says something derogatory about me.

I just went back through the play-by-plays from 2005, to look at the drives some people want to eliminate from Losman's second stint by using a 15 or 20 yard threshold. Below are the descriptions of the drives. I'll leave it to the reader to decide whether Losman did enough on those drives to deserve some credit for the points they produced. I personally feel he did. Drive 1 (against San Diego): This drive started on the San Diego 47, and moved to the San Diego 35 for a FG. Losman passed for 11 yards, McGahee rushed for 6, and the Bills lost 5 due to a penalty. Drive 2 (against San Diego): Losman completed a 9 yard pass to Reed on 2nd and 10. He completed a 3 yard TD pass to Shelton on 1st and goal from the 3. He also had a 30 yard run. Drive 3 (against Miami): This drive started on the Miami 26, so I deducted 3 points because the Bills were already in FG range. McGahee had 9 rushing yards to Losman's 17 passing yards, including Losman's 4 yard TD pass to Evans. Using a 20 yard threshold, Losman gets no credit for this particular drive. People are accusing me of dishonesty and manipulating statistics because I gave Losman credit for those three drives.