MRM33064
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Posts posted by MRM33064
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Seriously!
Where is the Whammy Weenie when you need it?!
http://www.forgottenbuffalo.com/forgottenbflofeatures/whammyweenie.html
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How can we let ourselves wear white? As fans, I don't think there's a lot of mystery behind whether we've been *#*$#$ yet or not.
That said, the timing is odd, and does beg the question - why even raise the prospect of tinkering with this great run?
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Not to pull credit from anyone during this terrific run, but good/competent QB play - something we haven't seen here for years - has the ability to make the OL look a whole lot better than vice-versa. Smart RBs help too, a lot.
Obviously it's a team game, and everyone needs to do their job, but good QB play (combined with efficient playcalling) has a disproportionate ability to make everyone look better very quickly.
The line definitely deserves credit, but I think the great play of Fitz and Freddy are a huge part of the perceived improvement.
EDIT: The OL deserves the most credit, I think, for the absence of nagging, undisciplined penalties. That, in and of itself, is a huge contribution.
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The answer is always Duct Tape.
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I almost felt bad for Phinfans yesterday. It was a collapse was of Jauronian proportions.
Almost.
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An excerpt of my own ratings for SOS played to date is below, premised on the average power rating of each individual opponent. Each individual opponent's rating is, in turn, based on actual performance through week 6.
I've actually got the Bills at a mid-range difficulty level, at #11 (20.60 on the scale below).
HARDEST SCHEDULE THROUGH WEEK 6
(Average strength of opponents)
DAL 25.016
STL 23.962
DEN 22.592
NYJ 22.47
MIA 22.414
EASIEST SCHEDULE THROUGH WEEK 6
(Average strength of opponents)
WAS 17.806
MIN 17.735
SDG 17.462
NYG 17.09166667
ARZ 16.942
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I have the most likely outcome for the Bills right now (premised on subjective estimates of projected pointspreads/win % for the balance of the season) at either 10 or 11 wins.
I put a fairly detailed analysis of this in the "predictions" thread if anyone is interested in that sort of analysis. Would love to see others sharing their own modeling or data.
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I am probably the only person who stayed up and watched the entire game last night. The only reason being it was the last game on my Parlay ticket to have 13 out of 13! I had the Dolphins +17 1/2 a sure win right? Lol I lost by 1/2 point! I had no idea that they were this bad. They could very well be one of the worst in modern time. It made me so happy to be a Bills fan. We will destroy them!
Brother, hitting 12/13 on a parlay ticket with one open leg left on Monday night ... I hope you hedged off a healthy chunk on the Jets and still made an extremely large amount of money. 12/13 is once-in-a-lifetime stuff.
As far as worst team ever ... IDK about that, but any coaching staff of an 0-4 team that's losing another game in the 3rd quarter that sends out their punt team with the ball in the opposing team's territory? That might even make Dick Jauron blush. Horrid.
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FWIW, my ratings have Bills between 8th-12th in the league. The difference between my highest rated team (BAL) and the lowest (STL) is roughly 21 points on a neutral field.
WINS/EXACTLY
0 0.00%
1 0.00%
2 0.00%
3 0.00%
4 0.00%
5 0.04%
6 0.43%
7 2.36%
8 8.11%
9 18.04%
10 26.30%
11 24.82%
12 14.50%
13 4.74%
14 0.66%
15 0.00%
16 0.00%
Individual game probabilities are available, but in general I have the Bills favored against WAS, MIA (both times), TEN, DEN. Close calls on SDG, DAL, and both NYJ games. Underdogs to NE.
Let the criticism begin! :-) Happy to share my modeling info or data with anyone else who enjoys this kind of thing.
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cool, i dig this kind of stuff. can you make it more detailed/specific and show the odds for each individual win total?
Sure, if folks are interested I'll start posting w/detail next week. Here is my general methodology if you'd like to try it yourself:
1. Assign pointspread-based power ratings to each team in the league, assuming a neutral field. This is obviously subjective, and different folks have their own ways of doing it, but there are fairly respected ratings to use out there if you don't want to construct your own (e.g Jeff Sagarin's ratings, published in USA today.) You can also derive estimates for teams based on current Vegas lines as compared to prior weeks, etc.
2. Adjust those spreads for the various home-field opportunities, based on each team's assumed HFA (again subjective), assign a spread to each game.
3. Convert each pointspread into a probability-to-win-straight-up. These figures are derived from my own data set, but to give you a general idea, a line of 0 would equate to a 50% chance of winning that game, straight up. As a team becomes a greater favorite, the % chance of winning goes up, and vice-versa. Again, you can construct tables yourself on these or find other folks conversion tables on the web.
4. Take each individual win probability and construct a normal distribution. Voila.
A lot of this gives the illusion that it's more precise than it is, but then again, it helps construct a logical response to the naysayers who throw out ridiculous (usually negative) projections.
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After Week 5, I've got our beloved Bills pegged with the following possible outcomes. These based on my own (subjective) current power ratings, which put the Bills as somewhere between the 5th-8th best team in the league. #1 team is the Pats, #32 team is the Rams, with roughly a 20 point differential between the 2 teams on a neutral field.
Season Wins (Buffalo):
8 or less: About 5%
9 or 10 : About 28%
11 or 12 : About 44%
13 or 14 : About 20%
15: About 3%
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Try to draw them off and, if that doesn't work, it's: destiny 100% in our hands, snap count on our call, 1 yard to end the game, a few feet to take this team to 4-1. Put it away.
I almost can't believe anyone would even consider punting there.
Someone must have the expected value calculations associated with the various decisions/potential outcomes in that situation (i.e. field position, time on clock, down/distance), but the numbers have to be ridiculously slanted toward going for it there.
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Uh...so you are using the logic that because they dealt Evans, they would pass on T.O.? You my friend are still suffering from an acute "Evans is a good player" delusions. There is a MASSIVE difference between T.O. and Lee Evans, even this late in T.O's career. At T.O.'s worst, he is 2-3 times more valuable than Evans ever was or will be.
Look I mean after 4 games, the guy has 2 catches. LEE EVANS IS NOT GOOD.
My thinking was that "TO/No TO" is probably all moot taking Buddy's prior words at face value. Personally, I think TO was fine on the team, and my own "TO/No TO" decision (since it would likely be a short-term, temporary thing) would be heavily weighted on the desires of Fitzpatrick, Freddy, and the other current team leaders. For whatever reason, this group of almost-no-names has caught a little magic and belief, and I'd be very careful tinkering with it.
The personality of this team seems more conducive to finding a promising "no-name" kid on a practice squad somewhere, and telling him "now's your time to contribute with the rest of us." I'd guess that would be Buddy's direction as well, but we'll see soon enough.
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When Buddy dealt Evans, he made a point of saying how he was interested in guys on the way up. If he thought Evans was on his way downhill, I don't think he'll be calling up TO.
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Glad to see the NFL is creating more revenue streams to keep itself out of serious, imminent financial trouble. I get a similar sense of comfort and relief when I visit www.nfl.com to check a few stats and get bombarded by ads. :-)
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He will finally throw a td pass to a Bill.....to Drayton Florence
... only if Drayton happens to be within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage. :-)
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Brady bunch arrives
Tom throws like Sam the Butcher
Even Alice laughs
Dareus, meet Tom
Tom, meet our brand new green turf
Hoodie, meet defeat.
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What a glorious thing indeed it would be to see the Bills make the Pats* look like a large quantity of "number two."
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I thought the heavy betting action on the Bills was a quirky thing that might've warranted some attention, though that "story" picked up a lot of momentum late.
At multiple locations the Chiefs opened up around -6 and closed at -3.5, which is not exactly a small move for an average NFL game.
Aside from a short time a little while back when the Bills were a popular week-in/week-out "under" play, they haven't exactly been a public/marquee team for a long time. Yet, this week, a lot of folks either saw something in the Bills they liked, or something in the Chiefs they really hated.
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Sully is the friend who always points out that every silver lining really covers a dark cloud. If the sun is shining and you say, "What a beautiful day!", Sully will respond, "Yeah, but it will rain tomorrow." Just by chance, sometimes he'll be right.
I wonder what he'll say about the KC win?
My guess is that he'll say the entire team had a solid performance but he'll zero in on Fitz, pointing out that great QB play is everything in the NFL - which I think is largely correct. He might even toss in a reference to the disaster that was the Colts game to help bolster the point.
Something along the lines of, for this year: as goes Fitz, so goes the Bills.
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1. In retrospect, Warren Sapp looks like a genius.
2. The Buffalo Bills score (at least) 41 points in a complete blowout of their opponent.
Debate: Which of those statements was more unlikely? A real tossup.
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Off To Arrowhead
Buffalo stampede heads West
Their turn for De-Wang
Bills game on Sunday!
Maybin will watch, just like us!
But rested, and rich
Bills draw fifth team crew
Wilcotts ready, loves Da Beelz
It's Beasley Reece time!
Marv puts the game on
Wonders - where are all my picks?
Answer: Home Depot
Go Bills :-)
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Newton's on his cell!
Denver? Nope, just Rosenhaus.
Bills suckered again
Bills send up their pick
Cornerback, Ohio State
Some things never change
Kiper and Mayock
Flipping through notes, shaking heads
Who did Bills just pick?!
Moorman getting old
Bills use third pick on great leg
Punting stays our strength
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My impression was that he'd like to have him, but not at the price Whitner thinks he's worth.
The "worth" point is definitely true, and I sense Chan didn't love the timing of all the big money talk amidst a dicey season ... but that word "tenuous" is strong, especially when the exact same word was used to describe Maybin's situation a few seconds earlier ...
Meh, who knows.
QB sneaks almost *always* work in very short yardage situations
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Not only that - but do that a few times successfully, enough to get a little reputation for it, and one of those 4th-and-inches will turn into a tasty play-action touchdown.
I wonder if Fitz saw something at the line that for whatever reason made him think the sneak wouldn't work, because he could've just opted out of the run.