ezbills
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Posts posted by ezbills
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Well, the fact that the Bengals and Broncos play each other helps a lot since the Bills will have a great shot at tying or passing the loser of that game (although the winner will likely secure one of the wildcard spots). The Chiefs are no threat because they will get mauled by the Chargers next week who are playing for homefield advantage.
That would leave the Jags, Jets, and Bills fighting for one spot. As I said before, a Jags loss next week coupled with a Fins win over the Jets would leave the Bills in great position.
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Thanks! I guess going 11 years without seeing the Bills win a playoff game (well, if you don't count the Music City Ripoff as a "win") has helped contribute to my NFL tiebreaker nerdery!
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Here's why the Bills have a solid shot at a playoff spot.
http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=56563
The key will be whether the Jets lose to the Dolphins in Week 16. It will be very tough for two teams from the same division to get wildcard spots, and the Bills will only hold the tiebreaker over NYJ if they lose to MIA.
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If the Bills win out, they have a solid shot at a wildcard spot. Most of the other teams they are competing with have tough schedules and the Bills will hold most or all of the tiebreakers.
If Buffalo goes 3-0 (finishing at 9-7, 7-5), they would need the following to get a wildcard berth:
- KC one loss AND
- NYJ loss to MIA (OR NYJ losses to both MIN and OAK) AND
2 of the following 3 things:
- 2 JAX losses
- 2 DEN losses (OR 1 DEN loss and 1 KC loss so KC wins tiebraker over DEN)
- 2 CIN losses plus strength of victory tiebreaker
There is a great chance that KC will lose at SD next week, ensuring that the Bills will tie or finish ahead of them. The Chiefs also have games against the Raiders and Jaguars. The Bills would hold the tiebreaker with any Chiefs loss based on AFC record.
Given Miami's performance today and how awful the Jets looked vs the Bills, there's a good chance that Miami will beat the Jets in Miami. In that scenario, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker over the Jets based on AFC record. If the Jets beat Miami, however, the Jets would hold the tiebreaker and the Bills would need the Jets to finish at 8-8 by losing to the Vikings and Raiders.
That leaves JAX, CIN, DEN, and BUF for 2 wildcard spots. Jacksonville has a difficult remaining schedule with the Titans, Patriots, and Chiefs. Should the Jags lose 2 of those 3, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker based on AFC record (the head-to-head win vs the Jags only matters in a 2-team tie).
The Broncos are self-destructing having lost 4 in a row after starting 7-2. They could easily lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games against the Cardinals (who just beat Seattle), Bengals and 49ers. Should Denver lose just one game, the Bills would lose the tiebreaker unless the Chiefs also finished with a 9-7 record, in which case the Bills would beat both KC and DEN.
The most interesting tiebreaker would be vs the Bengals who have tough games coming up against the Colts, Broncos and Steelers. The Bills and Bengals would likely have the same AFC record and the same record vs common opponents, so the tiebreaker would go to strenth of victory (i.e. the combined winning percentage of all the teams you beat). The Bills currently hold the advantage in this tiebreaker thanks in part to the Dolphins' recent run of wins.
BUF strength of victory (58-59):
MIA, MIN, GB, HOU, JAX, NYJ, (MIA, TEN, BAL)
6-7 6-7 5-8 4-9 8-5 7-6 (6-7 6-7 10-3)
CIN strength of victory (53-63):
KC, CLE, PIT, CAR, NO, CLE, BAL OAK (PIT)
7-6 4-9 6-7 6-7 *8-4 4-9 10-3 2-11 6-7
In my opinion, the 2 games that will determine the Bills' playoff fate (other than the Bills' own games) is next week's Jags/ Titans matchup and the Jets/Miami night game. If the Titans and Dolphins win those games, the Bills will have a great shot at a wildcard birth if they run the table.
Remember, the Steelers were in a similar position with a few weeks to play last season and things worked out pretty well for them...
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After a few of those calls and non-calls, I thought an appropriate beginning to an article about that game would be:
"The Buffalo Bills' 12th Man walked gingerly out of Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday after the referees..."
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Please, Marv, if you're listening, WE NEED OFFENSIVE AND DEFENSIVE LINEMEN!!!
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After a few of those calls and non-calls, I thought an appropriate beginning to an article about that game would be:
"The Buffalo Bills' 12th Man walked gingerly out of Ralph Wilson Stadium on Sunday after the referees..."
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Thanks man. I guess a love of stats combined with not seeing your team win a single playoff game for the past 11 years can make a guy crazy! To me, the most unlikely part by far is the Bills actually running the table. The thought that they have a decent shot at the playoffs if they do so should make the games more enjoyable to watch though.
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I thought this defensive line was supposed to be wreaking havoc in the backfield to stop plays from developing and to prevent the O-linemen from mauling our LBs! Our DTs are virtually non-existant out there. I was glad they went DT early in the draft but I'm not sold that McCargo is the answer. DT has to be high on the priority list for free agency and the draft.
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Wasn't Richard Nixon the President when the Jets won their only Super Bowl? Did they wear leather helmets in that game and have the goal posts on the goal line? When that game was played, there were still people alive who were born during the Civil War!!!
Get something new to post about, like Chad Pennington's flimsy rotator cuff, the complete domination of the Jets by the Jags (whom the Bills recently beat), or the Jets loss to the Browns.
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That game had a shot at moving to Sunday night if the Bills and Fish would have improved to 6-6 this past week. Oh well, looks like most of the country will miss out on Part 2 of the annual fish fry/ Dol-felon roundup.
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Playoffs or not, there is not another 5-7 or 6-6 team I'd rather trade places with in terms of future hope. I can't remember a time that I felt that way about a Bills team with a losing record this late into the season. I don't love all of Jauron's moves and the team has a few major holes, but things seem to be on the upswing.
I agree. After going into the bye week on a 3-game losing streak including 2 blowout losses, the Bills have responded with 3 victories and a pair of close losses to 10-2 teams. I think San Diego is the favorite to win it all this year and the Bills went toe-to-toe with them for most of the game. I know the offense has been hit or miss (mostly miss) and the defense gets run on like crazy, but the team has overcome that to find ways to keep the score close and pull out some wins. Now, if we could just get some pressure on Pennington this week...
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Now that I've made you laugh, here's why it's not that crazy to be thinking playoffs unless and until the Bills lose one more regular season game.
While there are currently 5 teams tied at 7-5 for the 2 wildcard spots, there is a good likelihood that the #2 wildcard team will finish with a 9-7 record. There is also a good chance that the Bills would win the tiebraker against most other teams that happen to finish 9-7 should the Bills go on a 4-game winning streak.
The 7-5 teams most likely to miss out on the playoffs are JAX, KC and DEN.
The Jags have a tough schedule left with games vs the Colts, Titans, Patriots, and Chiefs. The Bills hold the head-to-head tiebreaker and would also hold the tiebreaker in a multiple-team tie since the Bills would be 7-5 in the AFC and the Jags would be 6-6.
The Chiefs just lost in OT to the lowly Browns and have back-to-back games against the 9-3 Ravens and the 10-2 Chargers who are fighting for a first round bye. They also have games against their archrival Oakland and the Jags. The Chiefs would lose to most teams (including Buffalo) in a tiebreaker because they would have a 5-7 AFC record.
Denver is heading full speed in the wrong direction after starting out 7-2. The Broncos head to the 10-2 Chargers this week and also have the Cardinals, Bengals, and 49ers left on the schedule. The wheels may completely fall off after the Chargers take care of business in Week 14. While the Broncos would beat the Bills in a two-team tie at 9-7, the Bills would likely prevail should the Chiefs also finish at 9-7. The Chiefs would hold the tiebreaker against Denver within the AFC West division, and then the Bills would beat the Chiefs based on AFC record.
The trick will be whether the Bills can pass either the Jets or the Bengals for the final wildcard spot. Whether the Bills will hold the tiebreaker over the Jets and Bengals depends on which 2 games those teams lose to finish at 9-7.
The Bills would hold the tiebreaker vs the Jets if the Jets lose this week vs Buffalo and also lose at Miami in Week 16. In that scenario, the teams would share a 3-3 division record and a 8-6 record vs common opponents, but the Bills would have a better AFC record for the 4th tiebreaker. If the Jets beat Miami, however, the Jets would hold the tiebreaker and would have to lose to both Oakland and Minnesota for the Bills to finish ahead of them.
The Bengals most likely losses would be at the Colts and either at the Broncos or vs Pittsburgh. Since the Bills and Bengals would likely have identical records vs AFC and common opponents, the tiebreaker would be based upon strength of victory (i.e. the combined records of all teams you defeated). Assuming that the Bengals lose to IND and DEN but defeat OAK and PIT, the Bills currently hold the slightest edge in that tiebreaker. The combined records for the 9 teams the Bills would beat is currently 51-57, while the record for the Bengals opponents is currently 50-57 (the Bengals beat CAR who plays tonight vs PHI). This tiebreaker would not likely be decided until after all Week 17 games are played.
Well, at least things will be interesting as long as the Bills win their games. There's a very real possibility that the only 7-5 team to win this week will be the Bengals, leaving a 4-way tie at 7-6 for the final spot and the Bills just one game back at 6-7 and holding most of the tiebreakers. I'd love the Christmas Eve game vs the Titans (which I'll be attending) to have playoff implications for the Bills!
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DJ made the right call - going from 10 to 13 isn't that great because NE is still within two scores. The blame has to go to the O-line for getting blown up on the play, not the coaches.
Going up by 17 in that situation all but seals the deal and the Patsy fans start heading for the exits. That's the call that Belichek, Parcells, etc. would have made - the difference is that the Pats converted on their 4th down play and we didn't.
Overall it was a solid performance by the D, but the offense was non-existent in the 2nd half. Anyone who thinks we would have won the game had they just kicked the field goal there is kidding themselves.
By the way, Mularkey would have called a triple-reverse, flea flicker, HB option toss on that play.
I think Miami and the Jets will have their hands full with this Bills team the next 2 games.
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Here's our website:
http://www.billsbackersofvirginia.com/
We're having a pre-game tailgate at one of the backer's houses and then we'll head to AJ Gators for the game. The 2 big screen TVs in the back are reserved for the Bills games every week.
Go Bills!
Erik Z.
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Gotta love the expert analysis.
The Jets will be good just because they might draft Leinart? He'll probably end up being a good or average NFL QB some day, or he could end up being the next Ryan Leaf. He had more talent around him at USC than he will have now on the Jets, and the defenses he will face are much better than Stanford and Arizona State. Do the Jets have anyone in their offense better than Reggie Bush? Nope. The Jets will still be horrible in '06, led by a rookie QB.
The Fish will be twice as good as Buffalo with Culpepper? Come on! They still don't have an O-line, their WRs get hurt a lot, and they just aren't talented. Our 5-11 Bills beat them once last year and led them 21-0 in the other game before Mularkey got stupid. Culpepper is an injured, human turnover waiting to happen. Besides, with Dante and Ricky in the same huddle, a Miami "Love Boat" debacle is an accident waiting to happen.
Take a deep breath, come back in off the ledge, and take your meds!!!
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Wow. I've heard of messed up conspiracy theories before, but this one's out there.
BY FAR, the worst call in this year's playoffs was when the Steelers got hosed out of an INT late in the Colts game. The right call was made on the field and the refs overturned it after looking at the replay. No one rooting for or betting on Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl will have any sympathy for Seahawks whiners after that debacle.
The 2nd worst call of the playoffs was that offensive "pass interference" call in the Pats/ Broncos game that took away a long TD. Like most Bills fans, I was glad that the Pats finally got the wrong end of a bad call, especially after the Moulds "interference" penalty that cost the Bills a 1st down at the end of the Bills/Pats Sunday night game. Those calls were light years away from that Seahawks penalty. The WR clearly pushed off and the replay showed the Steelers guy's feet moving backwards to regain his balance.
Ben's TD run was very close, but the call on the field stands when there's no clear replay evidence. They would have scored from the 2 inch line on 4th down anyway.
The delay of game thing happens all the time, and I remember a game late this season or in the playoffs where a ref explained that the game clock actually expires a half or full second before the officials' on the field clock.
I was baffled by the clipping call on Hasselbeck after the INT like everyone else. Maybe the rules say it a penalty for trying to chop block?!?
The Vegas casinos/ oddsmakers make tons of money all the time because they know what they are doing. They move the lines before games to adjust for heavy betting and even things out. If the bookies were going to try to fix a game, wouldn't it make sense for them to favor the UNDERDOG?
The bottom line is that the Seahawks missed 2 field goals, squandered the final 2 minutes of the 1st half, dropped tons of passes, let up the longest TD run in SB history, threw an INT on a critical play near the endzone, and gave up a long TD pass by a WR on a trick play. They're lucky they didn't get blown out.
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Alright already, ease up on Campy!
He's not an irrational JP-hater, and he's said repeatedly that he wants him to succeed.I'm confident that JP will pan out, but I'll be the first to admit that I thought he'd do better overall last season. I don't blame people for looking at his performance and wondering if we wasted a 1st-rounder because he did look awful at times. I guess I think that he can become a top-10 NFL starter if he's coached well and given a better chance to succeed. Maybe the new coordinator will do a better job at getting the ball into the playmakers' hands quickly (especially Evans) to let them do the work instead of having to pass-block to set up the deep bomb. It would also help if Campbell wasn't the only TE threat on the roster, which is where I think Everett can have a big impact this year.
Campy doesn't need me to defend him, but his posts are typically more articulate and well-thought out than a lot of other TBD-ers.
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How could you spend 6-8 hours on TBD at work everyday and not get fired?!? They must be bosses or CEOs that can get paid to tell others to get work done.
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Actually, Losman did quite a bit better overall in his 5 November/early December appearances than he did in Weeks 1-4.
Take a look at J.P.'s passer ratings:
Weeks 1-4: 89.9 (HOU), 51.6 (TB), 33.8 (ATL), 34.0 (NO)
Weeks 10-14: 124.2 (KC), 65.5 (SD), 62.0 (CAR), 102.1 (MIA), 33.6 (NE)
His best 2 games were later in the year, while 2 of his 3 worst starts were early on.
J.P's comp. % was under 50% in 3 of his 1st 4 starts, but it was at or over 50% in 4 of his final 5 starts.
He threw just 1 TD in his 1st 4 games, but had 7 TD passes in his final 5 games.
J.P. also showed more patience as the season went on: 19 rushes in the 1st 4 games vs. 12 rushes in the final 5.
The Bills need to give J.P. an entire season of play to see if he can continue to improve, which I'm confident he will.
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I agree that a QB needs to show something by the end of year two...which would mean Losman should be the starter in '06. '05 was basically J.P.'s rookie (half) season because he only took a few snaps during the '04 season (remember the Pats beatdown on national TV?).
As for the 6-year playoff drought...Bills fans will never be happy unless/until the Bills win the Super Bowl. I'd love for them to make the playoffs sooner rather than later, but most fans (including me) would rather wait an extra year or two if it means the Bills will have a better shot at being a legitimate SB contender. If we're so desparate to win in '06 that the Bills should do whatever it takes, shouldn't they just trade away all of their '06 and '07 draft picks to pick up some veterans that can help with a one-shot run? I didn't think so either.
My point is that the team should take actions based on what gives them the best shot at building a championship-caliber team within the next several seasons, rather than on how they can piece together enough talent to somehow go 9-7 and get a #6 seed.
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The Bills are not winning the Super Bowl (or even getting to .500?) in 2006, so it would be foolish to not play Losman the whole season. How else can anyone tell if he can be a great/good/average NFL starting QB?
I'm sure this argument's been made before plenty of times, but shouldn't the relevant comparison be between Losman in 2005 and Holcomb when he was at a similar point in his career? A "journeyman" QB (like Holcomb) is one who is good enough to play in the NFL a long time because he can outperform most inexperienced players at the same position. In any sport, a veteran player than cannot beat most rookies/ 2nd-year guys will soon find himself collecting a pension from the league and looking for other work. This is especially true at the QB position in football.
The comparison, if any, should be between Losman and Holcomb during their 1st seasons of real NFL action.
Losman 2005, Bills:
9 Games Played, 8 Starts, 113-228, 1340 yards, 49.6% Comp., 8 TD, 8 Int., 7 Fumbles, 64.9 Rating. 31 Carries for 154 Yards.
Holcomb 1997, Colts:
5 Games Played, 1 Start, 45-73, 454 yards, 61.6% Comp., 1 TD, 8 Int., 4 Fumbles, 44.3 Rating. 5 Rushes for 5 Yards.
Of course these are small samples to draw conclusions from, but it's a better argument than comparing Losman to Holcomb's 2005 numbers. Holcomb managed to throw the same # of picks in just a quarter of the attempts that Losman had, and Holcomb's fumble to pass attempt ratio was roughly twice Losman's. Losman clearly has a much higher upside than Holcomb does/did.
Holcomb improved over time as he gained experience, and he certainly looks like a seasoned veteran. It's obvious that Holcomb played better for much of last season (except the KC game), but that is beside the point. Good teams make tough decisions to develop (play) young players with star potential despite the fact that older vets may still outperform during the 1st year or 2.
In other words, for every Roethlisberger, there are a dozen Mannings and Palmers that struggled early and then improved greatly to become quality NFL QBs. Play Losman in 2006!
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Well, at least Tom Donahoe can no longer take credit for any "Buffalo Bills - AFC East Division champions" or "Buffalo Bills - Hey, We Finally Won (Or Appeared In) A Playoff Game" shirts that may have accidentally made their way to our less fortunate brethren around the globe over the past few years....
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I'm not saying that the writer was malicious (unless he's a Fins, Jets, Pats, or Cowboys fan). I guess I just think that referring to the Bills Super Bowl losses 12-15 years later to make a joke is like reverting to "I know you are but what am I" or "Your Mama": it may make you sound witty among 4th-graders (and even some NFL fans) but shows a lack of originality/ current knowledge recognized by more informed fans.
How about "somewhere in Zimbabwe there's a whole bunch of people who appear to be absolutely nuts about the 2001-2003 NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles"?
Bills in the Playoffs?!?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
That's partly why I started this thread. This Bills team is better than the 2004 team that ripped off 6 wins against weak opponents before Bledsoe (and Clements) coughed up a playoff spot against Pittsburgh. The Bills have played quality football against tough teams since the bye week going 4-2 with losses to two great teams.
My point is that the 12th Man should be in full force next week against Miami more than ever with playoff possibilities on the line. I really want the Christmas Eve Titans game to mean something because I'll be there!!!