ezbills
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Posts posted by ezbills
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A Bengals win tonight plus a Jets win over Miami would eliminate the Bills. Cincy and NYJ would be assured of finishing ahead of Buffalo and there are only 2 spots to go around.
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I can't believe the Bills lost to the Colts considering how pourous their run defense is. They are lucky McGahee was injured that game. Hopefully the Colts D can keep the Bengals out of the endzone enough to pull off the win tonight.
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Well, we could still get in with 2 KC wins, a Den loss to SF, a Jets win over Oak and a Jags loss. So, if you added a Raiders win over KC in Week 16, we could then be knocked out before Week 17.
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Nice work Ozy.
You could add a few other games as a 1 because they will have some, minor impact on the Bills-Bengals strength of victory tiebreaker as I recently detailed here:
http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=56563
TB vs. CLE: The Bengals beat Cleveland twice so a Bucs win would help the Bills with the tiebreaker.
NYG vs. NO: The Bengals beat New Orleans so a Giants win would help the Bills with the tiebreaker.
ATL vs. CAR: The Bengals beat Carolina so a Falcons win would help the Bills with the tiebreaker.
HOU vs. IND: The Bills beat Houston so a Texans win would help the Bills win the tiebreaker.
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If the Colts win tonight, the tiebreaker between the Bengals and Bills would be strength of victory (the combined winning percentage of all teams that they defeated).
The Bills strength of victory (with upcoming wins against TEN and BAL included) is currently 62-64, with 18 total games remaining. Here is a list of who the Bills have defeated or will defeat and their remaining schedules:
BAL 11-3 PIT Buf
JAX 8-6 NE KC
NYJ 8-6 MIA OAK
TEN 7-7 BUF NE
MIA(2x) 6-8 NYJ IND
MIN 6-8 GB STL
GB 6-8 MIN CHI
HOU 4-10 IND CLE
The Bengals strength of victory (with an upcoming win against DEN or PIT included) is currently 58-68, with 18 total games remaining. Here is a list of who the Bengals have defeated or will defeat and their remaining schedules:
BAL 11-3 PIT Buf
NO 9-5 NYG CAR
DEN 8-6 CIN SF
KC 7-7 OAK JAX
PIT 7-7 BAL CIN
CAR 6-8 ATL NO
CLE(2x) 4-10 TB HOU
OAK 2-12 KC NYJ
The Dolphins count twice for the Bills because of the season sweep, and the Browns count twice for the Bengals because of the season sweep.
When you factor in the fact that TEN will pick up a loss to Buf, Den or Pit will pick up a loss to Cin, the Ravens will have losses to both Cincy and Buf, Mia and NYJ play each other, GB and MIN play each other, KC and Oak play each other, and NO and Car play each other: the Bills' strength of victory is really 64-68 with 11 games remaining, and the Bengals' strength of victory is really 61-72 with 10 games remaining.
This is obviously not a guaranteed tiebreaker for Buffalo, but the odds are in the Bills favor at this point.
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Exactly. That's another reason why the Pats/Jags game is pretty important. A Jags loss in Week 16 would give the Jags a 2-game losing streak and slim playoff chances when they head to KC, while a Jags win in Week 16 would give them confidence and a much better chance of making the playoffs heading into the final game.
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One scenario I haven't seen mentioned yet is:
Can Buffalo win a 3-team tiebreaker with Cincy and Denver without KC around to knock out Denver?
The answer I come up with is: I think so. I might need some help with this one, ezbills and others.
If Jacksonville makes the playoffs by beating both NE and KC to finish 10-6, and then the following happened:
- Miami beats Jets to knock out Jets
- Cincy loses to Indy, beats Denver, loses to Pittsburgh
- Denver loses to Cincy and beats SF
That leaves Buff, Cincy, and Denver all at 9-7/7-5. Cincy would have head-to-head against Denver but that isn't applicable since the Bills didn't play either team. Conference record is even for all at 7-5.
Now here's the key. The next tiebreaker is "Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four." Does this mean common games between all three teams? If that is the case, then this tiebreaker is not applicable because there hasn't been four common games between all three clubs. However, if they apply this tiebreaker by matching the teams head-to-head in twosomes, then Denver would defeat Cincy in this tiebreaker and Denver would defeat Buffalo in this tiebreaker. Therefore, Denver would get the wildcard.
However, I think "common games" must apply to all three teams in this scenario (similar to how Cincy's win over Denver isn't applicable unless they beat Buffalo also). Therefore, the next tiebreaker is strength of victory, where Buffalo owns Denver even worse than Cincy.
So, I think under this scenario where Jacksonville makes the playoffs and KC isn't around to knockout Denver, we can win a 3-team tiebreaker with Cincy and Denver.
Not to rain on the parade, but I don't think we can. In that scenario, DEN, CIN, and BUF would have 5 total games against 4 common opponents: NE, BAL, IND, and SD. Denver finished 2-3 against those teams, Cincy is 1-3 plus tonight's game vs. IND, and Buffalo is 0-4 with the Ravens game still to go.
The only way for the Bills to beat Denver if the Broncos finish 9-7 is for the Chiefs to also finish at 9-7. That's partly why my preferred playoff scenario at the moment has Denver getting a spot after they beat the Bengals, and we wouldn't have to worry about the Chiefs.
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Hmm, an Excel spreadsheet might be handy!
For some fans, the ignorance is bliss approach to the Bills playoff chances is the most enjoyable. I've been posting on the playoff scenarios for those of us who want to know all the details. To each his own.
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This is a good scenario, although we would not need all of this just to get a playoff spot.
The playoff scenario that seems the most likely to me is:
- IND beats CIN (tonight)
- DEN beats CIN (Week 16)
- JAX loses to NE (Week 16) (or KC in Week 17)
- MIA beats NYJ (Week 16)
This would actually put the Bills in the driver's seat going into the final week with the only potential problem being the Bengals/ Bills strength of victory tiebreaker.
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A lot of the scenarios are discussed here:
http://www.stadiumwall.com/index.php?showtopic=56563
The biggest source of confusion is over the Bills/ Bengals tiebreakers. If the Bengals win tonight against Indy, the Bengals would win the tiebreaker by having a better record vs common opponents.
If Indy beats Cincy, the tiebreaker would be strength of victory since the Bills and Bengals would have identical AFC records and records vs common opponents. The Bills hold a decent edge in that tiebreaker at the moment although the final outcome will not be determined until after the final week of games.
The Steelers are irrelevant to the Bills playoff chances. If the Bengals and Steelers are tied at 9-7, the Bengals would win the tiebreaker which is applied first before any inter-division ties are broken. If the Bengals dropped down to 8-8, the Steelers would still finish behind the Bills based on AFC record.
I'm planning on posting the details of the Cincy/Bills tiebreaker and other helpful info after work...
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I agree Oz it is more than that... Yet, you can't have Cincy "hogging" a playoff spot this "early" in the game (week 14)...
If they are to make it, Cincy's spot has to be dragged out later.
Heck... If they (Cincy) make it today... A fluke kick by Nugent in the NYJ v. Dolphins game is all that is needed for the Bills to be eliminated...
I don't want to pin my hopes on that one game!
This is a puzzle... The Bills need to keep going down the road with as many possibilites as possible to have a "fighting chance." Even if they win out...
It is like opening a series of doors to get more doors... We really need tonight's door to open!!!
Tonights game is like being at the "Head of Passes"... The "wrong" route can easily leave you stuck and run aground!
Tonight's Bengals game is incredibly important, 2nd in importance only to next week's Jets game (not including the Bills' own games).
While a Bengals win tonight would not lock up a playoff spot for Cincy, it would ensure that the Bengals will finish ahead of Buffalo no matter what else happens. That leaves just 1 wildcard spot in play for 4 teams (DEN, NYJ, JAX, and BUF), and the Jets could then eliminate Buffalo by beating Miami.
On the other hand, a Bengals loss likely gives the Bills the tiebreaker over Cincy and leaves both wildcard spots still in play for the Bills. It would also ensure that the loser of the Bengals-Broncos game will finish with at least 7 losses. Also, a Jets win over Miami would not eliminate the Bills in this scenario.
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Yes, the Bills could get in if the Jets win, although we would need the Bengals to lose tonight, win next week, and lose in Week 17. If the Bengals win tonight, a Jets win vs. Miami would eliminate the Bills.
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That sounds right, although it would still go down to the strength of victory tiebreaker with the Bengals which will not be finalized until after all the Week 17 games. The Bills currently have a decent edge in that tiebreaker.
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A Cards win vs Denver would be nice, but it's not nearly as important in the grand scheme of things as tonight's Chiefs game, tomorrow's Bengals game, or next week's Jets game.
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Exactly.
Here's how big the Monday night game is:
If the Bengals beat the Colts on Monday, and then the Jets beat Miami, the Bills CANNOT make the playoffs.
If the Bengals beat the Colts, and then the Dolphins beat the Jets, the Bills would have a decent shot at getting in.
If the Colts beat the Bengals, and then the Jets beat Miami, the Bills would have a slim chance of getting in.
If the Colts beat the Bengals, and then the Dolphins beat the Jets, the Bills have a pretty good chance of getting in.
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Yes, that Titans win over the Jaguars was huge. I'm confident that New England will beat the Jags next week and knock them out of the picture.
The biggest game left this week for the Bills playoff chances is, by far, the Monday night game. A Bengals win vs the Colts would ensure that Cincy has the tiebreaker over the Bills based on common opponents, but a Colts win would ensure that the tiebreaker is strength of victory which the Bills have a slight advantage in. That tiebreaker will not be decided until after all games are played, but it looks like the Bills have a good shot at beating the Bengals in that tiebreaker.
A Chargers win tonight vs the Chiefs is also big because it would ensure that the Chiefs cannot harm the Bills playoff chances. Of course, a Cards win vs Denver would help, but the Broncos are far more likely to lose next week vs the Bengals and/or their final game against the 49ers.
As I said last week, the biggest game determining the Bills playoff fate (other than the Bills' own games) will be the Christmas game between the Jets and Dolphins. A Jets win would give the Jets the tiebreaker over Buffalo and probably a wildcard spot for NY since they finish against Oakland. However, a Miami win would drop the Jets into a tie with Buffalo and also ensure that the Bills would have the tiebreaker.
The bottom line is that, if Miami wins next week, the Bills will be competing with whoever loses the Denver-Cincy game for the final wildcard spot. If the Jets win, however, the Bills will have to beat both Denver and Cincy for one spot which will be very tough to do.
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I'm just glad these threads are still alive. I think it is a tough road, but it was a tough road with four weeks of stuff to happen, and now it is a tough road with just three weeks of stuff to happen. My goal right now is to have these hopes last another week, and then we can take it from there. I big win against the Fish, and a couple of these things going our way and we can talk more about this next week!
My thoughts exactly.
A Bills win this week gets them to 7-7 and people will finally begin to realize that this team has a real shot at the playoffs. The Jags and Bengals have tough road games this week, so there's a good chance that the Bills will be sitting 1 game out of a wildcard spot with 2 games to play. There is also a very good chance that the Bills would beat the Bengals in a tiebreaker if the Colts beat the Bengals this Monday night.
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Why was Clements partly to blame? He was really the only reason the BIlls even had a chance to win it with his interception return touchdown.
The goats in the game were Bledoe, which goes without saying, and Lindell, who's short field goal miss (it was 20-something yards wasn't it??) seemed to suck the momentum right out of the Bills. As soon as he missed that kick, you could feel it, you knew it, it was going to start going bad.
My memory could be failing me, but I believe the Bills D stuffed Pittsburgh on the opening drive, the crowd was all fired up, and then Clements fumbled away the ensuing punt which deflated the team and the crowd and gave the Steelers the momentum back. Bledsoe (turnover for a score, surprise!) and Lindell are also to blame though, as was the Bills run D which let Pittsburgh backups maul them all day.
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You're joking, right? Jauron has done a lot of positive things this year, but his game-day management with timeouts and challenges is awful. I think the Bills were the 1st team in NFL history to burn 2 timeouts on the same play last week when DJ called timeout, challenged a play, and then lost another timeout after losing the challenge.
Overall, I am happy with the direction of the team including the coaching, but Coach of the Year consideration is kind of crazy!
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Actually, the Fins winning helped the Bills playoff chances by making it more likely that the Bills will win the tiebreaker over the Jets and Bengals. It does feel dirty having to pull for the Fish though...
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Bills Have a 50/50 Chance to Make Playoffs!
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
The Colts win over the Bengals was huge and gives Buffalo about a 50-50 chance of getting into the playoffs if they win their final 2 games.
Not including the Bills games, there are 8 remaining games left that will impact the Bills' chances (the DEN, CIN, NYJ, JAX, and KC games). There are 256 possible combinations of results in those games, excluding ties.
OVERALL PICTURE:
Of the 256 possible outcomes, 104 would put the Bills in the playoffs while 152 would leave them out.
However, 2 of the 8 games involve the hapless Oakland Raiders in games that the Bills want Oakland to lose (if the Jets beat Miami, the Jets MUST beat Oakland for the Bills to stay alive). Assuming that the Raiders will lose both of those games, the Bills would make the playoffs in 33 of the remaining scenarios while only 31 would leave the Bills out of the picture.
IMPORTANCE OF SPECIFIC GAMES:
MIA vs NYJ: This game is incredibly important for the Bills chances. If Miami wins, the Bills would make the playoffs in 92 of 128 scenarios. A Dolphins win here plus a Pats win over the Jags would put the Bills in the playoffs in 58 of 64 scenarios.
If the Jets win, however, the Bills would only make the playoffs in 12 of 128 possible scenarios. We want the Bengals to beat Denver next week because that would make it more likely that the Bills could still get in even if NYJ beats MIA.
Jags 2 games: As a group, the Jags games against NE and KC are quite important. If the Jags win both games, the Bills can only get into the playoffs in 4 of 64 scenarios. If the Jags lose to KC in Week 17, however, the Bills would make the playoffs in 70 of 128 scenarios and miss in only 58.
DEN vs. CIN: As of now, the Bills would make the playoffs in 52 of 128 scenarios regardless of who wins this game. However, a Cincy win would improve the Bills slight chance to get in if the Jets beat Miami, while a Denver win would improve the Bills' already great chances if Miami wins.
The remaining games don't have as much bearing on the overall picture as of now.
The bottom line is that the playoffs are a very real possibility for the Bills if they win their final 2 games.
WE NEED THE 12TH MAN IN FULL FORCE ON SUNDAY!!!