ezbills
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Posts posted by ezbills
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Acutally if all "Home" teams win for the next 2 weeks with the exception of Buffalo (needs to win) and Denver (needs to win in Cincy) then we are in.
Source: ESPN Playoff Machine.
Right, also if you say the team with the better power ranking wins every game, we get the help we need, if you change the Pats-Bills game to a W we're in. The SD loss just took away our realistic margin for error so the most realistic scenario before is pretty close to the only realistic scenario now.
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Not quite, but almost. Chiefs and Chargers could still tie.
Good point, hadn't thought of a tie between them, so we wouldn't be mathmatically eliminated but we'd be practically eliminated. We need the Chiefs to lose this week for any realistic chance to stay alive, a Texans win would be huge but isn't necessary.
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A kick to the balls, but not fatal (yet at least). Our likeliest playoff scenario always involved two PIT wins (beating KC and CIN) and DEN over CIN. Now we need KC to win at home next week vs SD also. Other possibilities would open up for us if the Texans can upset the Ravens tomorrow.
Conversely, if the Chiefs and Ravens both win at 1:00 Sunday we'd be eliminated before our kickoff I believe.
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Dangit, we really need this game. Come on Niners, man up!!!!
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The entire AFC playoff field can be determined this week, no matter what the Bills do in Oakland. From @ESPNStatsInfo
For the optimists, the current "default" scenario (all favorites winning their games the next two weeks) has us in if you just change our Week 17 game outcome to a W over the Pats. So, while we do need help, it's not like we need several lousy teams to pull off improbably upsets. As stated previously, realistically it comes down to PIT winning both games, DEN over CIN, and one SD loss in terms of help.
For the pessimists, it's possible the Bills could be eliminated BEFORE KICKOFF at Oakland, that would happen if SD wins Saturday and KC and BAL both win their 1 pm games. So, that's one of several reasons why SF beating SD is important - it's not technically a "must" win for us, but the best case scenarios get less optimistic and the worst case scenarios get much worse with a SF win. But, I believe SF and PIT will both win, making this scenario moot.
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I'm done correcting the ESPN playoff machine. I've done it numerous times in numerous threads. They don't do the tie-breaker properly with the Ravens. Look back a few pages for the explanation. Computers are not perfect.
You're 100% correct, we lose out to the Ravens in any tiebreaker situation unfortunately. We'd be 2-3 in common games and they'd be 3-2 (vs. MIA, SD, HOU, and CLE). My guess is ESPN's software doesn't include common opponent tiebreakers for all various combinations of teams that could be tied since that would be a huge pain to include.
Simply put, we need 3 of the following 5 things to happen: SD loss, KC loss, CIN 2 losses, PIT 2 losses, BAL 2 losses. When you factor in the head to head matchups of KC-SD (eliminating someone) and CIN-PIT (putting someone in ahead of us), we need 2 of these 3 things to happen: the PIT-CIN loser loses their Week 16 game, the SD-KC winner loses their Week 16 game, or 2 Ravens losses. 2 Ravens losses is by far the least likely scenario.
Fortunately for us, if all "favorites" win their games, we'd get the help we need (we'd need to win our 2 games of course). The favorites currently would be SF over SD, PIT over KC, BAL over HOU, DEN over CIN for this week, then PIT over CIN, KC over SD, BAL over CLE next week. Those results would put us in over CIN, SD, and KC. Based on the various scenarios and the likelihood of each result happening I give us a 29% chance of getting the help we need, which goes up to 40% if SF beats SD and falls to 17% if SD beats SF. The key games are really DEN beating CIN and SF beating SD.
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Seems like the perfect time to link to my Jauron swan song Youtube clip:
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Unless I'm really missing something here . . . the odds are 1 in 3200 that on the entire earth, at least one person will get hit (that there's a very high chance that NO ONE will get hit), NOT that each individual person has a 1 in 3200 chance of being hit (that there's virtually guaranteed to be mass casualties)!!!
I don't know about you, but 1 in 3200 doesn't sound too remote to me. I would bet that more than 3200 people post on this board so odds are someone on here will be getting hit. I can't imagine surviving. We should pray for each other if so inclined. I will be thinking of you.
Enjoy what may be your last Bills game.
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I put together a Jauron is gone celebration song on YouTube if anyone's interested:
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Sweet TD pass!!!
I put together a Jauron is gone celebration song on YouTube if anyone's interested:
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Should I be surprised that some people are critical of Shanahan right now?
We just went from 3.5 brutal years of Jauron to wondering whether Ralph would go the cheap coordinator route to the Bills likely having interest in a 2-time Super Bowl winning coach with a solid career winning percentage. I understand saying that they won't actually land Shanahan, but I don't understand saying it wouldn't be a good move if they actually did get him.
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I am sooooo happy right now. The Bills still have a long way to go, but for Ralph to admit there is a problem and take action like this is a big step in the right direction. Of course Gruden would be awesome, but there are several guys out there with coaching experience and past success that would get this team moving in the right direction.
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I know it's still a month away, but I just bought 6 tickets for the Bills-Panthers game in Charlotte and I wanted to pass along that the best place I came across for reasonable ticket prices is the Ticket Exchange on the Panthers' website. Most of the tickets listed are in pairs or single seats, but the prices were much more reasonable than eBay auctions or StubHub.
Go Bills!
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They just said Denver has 147 yards rushing so far.... and they average 116 yards per game. What a joke
The offense is so terrible that it makes our average to below average defense look better than it really is by comparison.
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All I want for Christmas is . . . Dick Jauron to be fired.
I may have to settle for one first down on offense this game though. I wonder which one is more likely to happen....
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I guess I stepped into the crossfire on that one. Maybe that's why college and graduate school applications often have an essay question like "Do you think your [sAT, LSAT, etc.] score accurately reflects your academic abilities? Why?" That seems like a dumb question to me because the higher your score was, the more accurately it reflects your abilities (in your own opinion). Someone who scores low and then says the test reflects his abilities is asking to be rejected!
By the way, here's my two cents on why I'm rooting for the Bengals to beat Denver:
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Who you want to win in the Denver/Bengals game depends on
your confidence in Miami beating the Jets,
whether you're a "hedge your bets" or a "double-or-nothing" kind of person, and
whether you have more confidence in PIT beating CIN or SF beating DEN in Week 17.
A Denver win is a "double or nothing" result because it greatly raises the stakes of the NYJ/Miami game, especially if New England also beats JAX. You want Denver to win if you have high confidence in Miami because a Dolphins win (plus an NE win) would put the Bills in control of their own destiny, while the Bills would still need some form of help if the Bengals and Dolphins win.
On the other hand, a Jets win plus a Denver win would virtually eliminate the Bills (and would actually eliminate the Bills if the Raiders also win tonight). The Bills would need SF to beat DEN in Week 17 (among other things) in this scenario to make the playoffs.
If you have low confidence in Miami winning, or you have a "hedge your bets" kind of approach, you want the Bengals to win. If Cincy wins, the Bills cannot control their own destiny going into the final week, but they are assured of still being in the playoff picture in the final week with a win over the Titans.
Also, a Bengals win is better for the Bills should Jacksonville and/or the Jets win their games this week. The Bills chances will be slim with a Jets win either way, but a Bengals win would give the Bills more possibilities than a Denver win should the Jets beat Miami. If the Bengals and Jets win, the Bills would need a Week 17 win by PIT over CIN (among other things).
I will be rooting for the Bengals because the Bills will already be in great shape for the playoffs if both New England and Miami win. A Bengals win would help the Bills chances in the event that either JAX or NYJ win, and I think that PIT has a better shot of beating CIN than SF does of beating DEN.
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This team has a great chance! And I've told everyone exactly what I want for Christmas... a Bills win and a Jet loss. That's it! Because that will give us an excellent chance going into the final week of the season. Man how much fun will that be!
Ez: I completely agree we don't need to wast playoff shots, but I don't think this team is going to fold like others have. I truly feel this team is turning up and next year we'll be even better than this year. That still, by no means, guarantees a playoff game next year. Entirely too many things can happen during the course of a full season. But I do feel optimistic about this team; and I must admit going into the '05 season, I didn't feel the same.
This team has me feeling hopeful again. Each week my hope and optimism grows. I actually had moments during the game last week where I thought, "JP's gonna do something here" Or when he threw long I actually expected a completion rather than an interception. It's been years since I could say something like that.
Perhaps I'm the only one. But, this team is seeming to come together and truely play well together. I really think our success next season will depend largely on how much Marv can keep this team together and add to it in a few key areas. (read: Don't let Nate or Fletcher go)
I agree 100%. This team has had a swagger about it the past few weeks that I haven't seen in quite a while. JP's hit on Thomas last week was a thing of beauty. I truly believe that they could give one of the division winners a run for their money in the wildcard round if they make the playoffs. I also think this team will build on this season through the draft and free agency unlike in years past.
I'm about to head out to WNY for Christmas and the Bills/Titans game and I hope to see many of you there. I may not be posting again for a while,
so I hope everyone has a Merry Christmas. GO BILLS (and Chiefs, and Pats, and Dolphins)!!! -
I understand and truly appreciate the optimism in this thread, but the reality is the Bills are not likely to be in the playoffs. They have to win their last 2 games and multiple other teams have to lose, and must lose certain games not just 1 0f the last 2. That makes us a longshot.
There are 4 teams at 8-6, if I recall correctly. The reality is all of those teams have much, much better chance of being in the playoffs.
I'm not trying to be the wet blanket here, I'm just saying lets ground this thing in reality. If the Bills win out and several other teams lose certain games we can get in. And that is a great and hopeful thing. And I read this thread daily to remind me of who I need to root for this week (I'm still a little confused on whether I'm rooting for Denver or Cinci to win). More importantly, I think we should all congratulate this team for playing tough; thereby, allowing us to have these discussions!
My thinking is that we have the next several days or weeks to talk about making the playoffs this season, but we will have months of the offseason to "congratulate this team for playing tough."
Frankly, I'm tired of moral victories and "making progress." Call me greedy, but I want wins and playoff runs!!!
I don't want to dampen optimism for next season (which I myself have), but take a look at the Bills records the past several seasons. After a dismal 2001 season, things looked much better in 2002 and the Bills finished 8-8. Instead of building on this improvement, the Bills went in reverse in 2003.
The Bills started crappy in 2004 but then won 6 in a row and missed the playoffs on the final day of the season, finishing 9-7. Instead of building on this improvement, the Bills went in reverse in 2005.
If the Bills finish 8-8 this year and don't make the playoffs, there's no guarantee that we'll take the next step in '07.
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Right now the Bills have almost a 75% chance to make the playoffs if they win out. I don't think anyone in the lockerroom believes that from all the interviews I see. Everyone is all.."I wish we controlled our own destiny, and a lot has to happen..."
No, a lot doesn't have to happen. If you beat Tennessee and Baltimore guys, you will most likely be in the playoffs. The Bills are the weak link. Granted a lot rides on Miami beating the Jets, but if that happens...we are almost guaranteed to get in as long as we win two.
And you are correct with your mathmatical approach....I break down numbers and odds for a living, so I feel comfortable putting spreads out there that may be a point or 2 off eventually. The biggest point we both agree on is we don't need a miracle...we just need to win.
The reason I have it at 50% now is because it's roughly 75% if Miami beats NYJ and 25% or less if the Jets beat Miami. I think a lot of players or fans just look at the fact that the Bills are currently 9th in the AFC without realizing that the Bills should easily pass 2 or 3 teams with a win vs the Titans.
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We're saying the same thing, just 2 different ways.
You're trying to factor in the likelihood that teams will win or lose their particular games, including the Bills. I was explaining the combinations of scenarios that would put the Bills in the playoffs IF they actually do win their games.
Since it looks like the Bills have a 50/50 shot at getting in the playoffs if they go 2-0, the chance that the Bills will actually make the playoffs is whatever percent chance someone thinks the Bills have of actually going 2-0, divided by 2.
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Hopefully Baltimore's finest won't give you a hard time at the game. Two friends of mine got booted from a Bills/Ravens preseason game a while back for being too rowdy for some prim and proper types while they cheered for the Bills.
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There's a Buffalo radio station - Oldies 104 - that put out a cassette tape with songs like that a LONG time ago.
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Against Jacksonville, the Titans had 97 yards of total offense, with 41 coming on the ground. Young was sacked three times, they were 0-8 on third down conversions and had five first downs the entire game.
Part of me feels like this game can emulate the Fish game in that as soon as we realized Joey couldn't throw, we spent the entire time trying to stop the run. The ONLY reason the Titans beat Garrard and the Jaguars is because they scored three defensive touchdowns on turnovers of 83, 92 and 61 yards.
Alternately, Jacksonville got over 200 yards on the ground and almost another 200 in the air. If we can put up those numbers and protect the ball, this game will be easier than would initially be considered based on this team's sudden mystique.
Agreed. This Titans team is winning by smoke and mirrors, not by dominating anyone. Let's see how they fare against a team that doesn't gift wrap 3 TDs for them.
Updated: The AFC Playoff Picture
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I'm excluding ties as a possibility... so we need wins the final two games and also two of the following three things:
1) Bengals lose to Denver and Pittsburgh (those games matter to DEN and PIT for seeding purposes),
2) Chargers lose to Chiefs (KC is at home and still in the hunt themselves),
3) Ravens lose to Browns (Browns are out but could play spoiler role vs. a rival like the Redskins vs. Eagles).