ATBNG
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Posts posted by ATBNG
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The Rams are 1-7 in games outside the division, and have been outscored on average 32-19 in those eight games. I'm not seeing it - not for a second. St. Louis is a trainwreck. They have no chance against a superior, well balanced, relatively well coached team - even at home. Martz could be out. They're so lucky to have drawn 2 of their three hardest games all season in weeks 16 and 17 where both their opponents (Philly, NYJ) may have nothing to play for.
I would score up the Jets as Wild Card #1 and hope for another scenario.
The Jets are going to be a big problem for the Patriots. Home divisional game against a team coming off a short week and which has a secondary that has more personnel holes than Pebble Beach.
Then again, if they're going to make the playoffs, you'd have to think that they could beat Pittsburgh trying at full strength if they are then going to go to Indy/SD and win.
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Either the NFL is going to convert every stadium to artificial turf at some point in the very near future, or change the season in which football is played, or Bill Polian has gone insane making his team frighteningly one-dimensional.
It IS, in part, Peyton's fault that they don't have a good defense because he signed such a huge contract in a salary cap league. More money for Peyton means less money for the other 52 guys. Furthermore, this recent signing of all his other offensive players to large contracts makes it likely that this will continue and even worsen in the future. It sure seems to me that they're putting in place a team that is designed to break offensive records and not to win football games in January and February.
Polian's one dimensional strategy - signing an underpriced, undersized, depthless but quick defense was probably the only reasonable way out. It however puts a ton of pressure on the team to do well in the regular season. They'll probably jack San Diego and their first round AFC opponent in Indy. However, they will then have to move outside to either Pittsburgh or New England, and both those teams are going to overpower the Colts D without much of a problem at all.
The playoffs are always going to be in January where snow and cold are going to significantly slow down a high powered offense, and a hostile crowd is going to put the reins on the Great Audibler. Unless the Colts can find the right formula to play at home throughout, I don't see them winning a championship in the near future.
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Once Vegas readjusts the Super Bowl lines sometime early this week, Philly will still be the NFC favorite. Home field throughout counts for a lot.
It's a big loss though - TO gave them a dimension that they'd never had before.
I find the NFC despicable. Here's yet another reason:
The New Orleans Saints (6-8) control their playoff destiny.
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Have you even watched this team in the last 4 weekS??? If you have how in the hell can you claim that he is underestimating Denver??? They scored 17 points against KC!!! Some CFL teams would put up 17 on KC! Denver is done because Plummer seems to throw to the other team a lot and their defense is pretty porous and Tenn can put points up.
I have seen them, and am not impressed, but I only use Vegas lines to make my assumptions about which team "should" win. That is the best measure because that represents the collective feelings of millions of gamblers which side "should" win. He is underestimating Denver because he is givign them 5/10 against Tennessee (when they are in reality 4 point favorites) and 4/10 against the Colts (where I project they will also be favored since the game only has about a .1% chance of meaning anything to Indianapolis).
If you feel very strongly about Denver being overrated, I suggest that you look into grabbing Tennessee at home with a four point head start this week.
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Here are some probability's surrounding our playoff chances in the next two weeks. Each game is rated based on my prediction out of a 10 game series. For example next week I predict the Bills at 9/10. Meaning if they played San Fransisco 10 times they would win 9 of them.
Probability of the Jaguars winning both games is
6/10 vs Houston = They lost the first game to Houston
8/10 vs Oakland= Oakland coming on but Jaguars are still superior
Total likelihood of the Jaguars winning both= 48%
Probability of the Ravens winning both games
4/10 vs Pittsburgh= The Steelers can be beat but they should have the edge at Heinz
8/10 vs Miami= Miami is coming on but the Raves are still superior
Total likelihood of the Ravens winning both= 32%
Probability of the Broncos winning both games
5/10= Titans can move the ball
4/10= Would be much worse for Denver if the Colts play their starters
Total likelihood of the Broncos winning both= 20%
Probability of the Jets losing twice. Note that my fractions represent the odds of the Jets losing the game. For example next week I predict the Jets at 7/10. Meaning if they played New England 10 times at the Giants stadium they would get beat 7 times.
7/10 vs New England= Jets are good at Giants stadium but the Patriots are top 1 or 2 in the league right now.
4/10 vs Rams= The Rams are playing some horrible football now but Bulger should be back for this game. Historically the Rams are a pretty decent home team.
Total likelihood the Jets get beat twice= 28%
Assuming Buffalo wins out my math puts them as the second seed in the playoffs. If you agree with my predictions the order would be as follows.
Wild Card 1 Jets
Wild Card 2 Bills
Jaguars
Ravens
Broncos
You're making a mistake at the end - you only need one fo the three teams (Jacks, Balt, Denver) to win out to eliminate the Bills (barring the Jets and 3 way scenarios, which you say is not a factor 3/4 times). So it's 48% + 32% + 20% divided by some factor for overlap...that's taking it down to 20% or so, and that's assuming the Bills beat Pittsburgh (which is not a 100% prop).
I also think you're underestimating Denver as crappy as they look - I think they're better than 50% to win at Tennessee. They'll be a 3 point favorite or so. That's not to say that you may not be correct.
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If he throws 2 or more TD's against San Diego next week and the Colts win (which seems like the most probable scenario), then why would Dungy even play him against Denver? Perhaps it might snow and the Colts will be in protect mode all night in terms of risking injury versus making that extra effort.
I'm guessing he throws 3 next week, sets the mark at an even 50, and takes week 17 off. It's bad for the Bills, but the Colts couldn't care less about the Bills.
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This is almost certainly true. I give you a ray of hope of almost sweepstakes proportions - an Indy/San Diego tie next week.
Even then, the difference between seeds 3 and 4 is miniscule. Jump on the Billy Volek train I suppose, and hope that Fisher can keep the schoolyard BS to a minimum, and hope that the Tennessee secondary can stop the BYu imitation any day now.
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Well, I don't think that you can make a reasonable analysis assuming every game is a 50/50 proposition. We know that isn't the case - you'd be hard pressed to find someone make you an even money bet on next week's San Fran/Buffalo game.
In this case, you have to factor in the lines on the games. Here's my projections:
Buff at SF - Buffalo by 13
Pitt at Buff - Pitt 3 (if 1 seed isn't wrapped up)
Buff 1-3 (if Pitt wraps up one seed)
Denver at Tennessee - Denver -3
Indy at Denver - Denver -3 (if Indy can't improve their position, which is very likely...if this game were in week 16, Indy would be a three point favorite - this is really a killer for the Bills)
Houston at Jacksonville - Jags -5.5
Jacksonville at Oakland - Jacksonville -6 (if they can win to get in - a scenario that will inflate the line....normally that's a Jacks -3)
Baltimore at Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh -7
Miami at Baltimore - Baltimore -12
There's also the Jets scenario....
Pats at Jets - New England -3
Jets at St. Louis - Jets -8
Since Denver and Jacksonville are favored in both their games, there's a higher than 25% probability (nominal coin flipping odds) that either one will win both. I'd put the Jags somewhere around 50% and the Broncos at 35%. I'd put Baltimore at around 15%. The Bills are highly dependent on the value of the game to Pittsburgh.
I think the Bills have a 20% shot or so at getting into this thing.
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In a ridiculous piece of revisionist history, there are people who post here who claim Drew "won" this game for New England. His final stats were 10-21, 100 yards, and the one TD pass when he came into the game. He was OK.
Troy Brown by comparison had 8 catches for 121 yards, a punt return for a TD, and picked up a blocked field goal and pitched it to Antawn Harris for another TD. There's your MVP of that game.
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This is 100% incorrect. The Patriots were winning 7-3 when Brady left the game and Drew came in. Come on - you even used caps. Check your facts.
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That comment intrigued me. The answer is no - NO is at Carolina in week 17, so the sixth seed in the NFC will be at least 6-9-1.
Assuming five teams are in (Sea, Phi, Atl, Min, GB) and one is out (SF), the other ten all would appear to be alive for spot 6 since Carolina and NO could tie in that last game.
Relevant teams and my spread projections:
St. Louis 6-8 (underdogs in final two vs. Philly, vs. NY Jets)
Carolina 6-8 (underdogs at Tampa, favored vs. NO)
New Orleans 6-8 (pick 'em vs Atlanta, underdog at Car)
Arizona: 5-9 (underdogs at Seattle, and ever so slight dog vs. Tampa Bay)
Tampa Bay 5-9: (favored vs. Carolina, slight favorite at Arizona)
Washington 5-9: (underdog at Dallas, pick 'em vs. Minnesota)
NY Giants 5-9: (underdog at Cincy, favored vs. Dallas)
Dallas 5-9: (favored vs. Washington, underdog at NYG)
Detroit 5-9: (favored vs. chicago, dog at Tennessee)
Chicago 5-9: (dog at DET, dog vs. GB)
I mean....who knows???
Let's look at the 6-8 "cream of the crop." St. Louis has the advantage that they get two home games versus teams that may have nothing to play for (as you all know, that would entail the Jets beating NE, but that's not outlandish). However, they're atrocious and probably still will lose to the Philly and NYJ backups.
Carolina could beat Tampa down there, but I like Tampa - home division revenge game at a short price.
New Orleans is interesting. They keep winning random road games. Can they beat a disinterested Atlanta (clinched two seed and can't move) and Carolina? Carolina beat them in NO, so I doubt it.
I think there is an 80-90% chance you will see a 7-9 team in the playoffs for the first time.
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Indeed, a 7-9 team could easily qualify, but the Rams loss makes it fact.
Right now one of those 6-8 teams is the six seed (Carolina?). I don't feel like figuring it out. This is almost on the level of basketball in terms of one conference being that much worse than the other.
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A little reactionary Simon - don't you think?
Jacks will be a 5.5 - 6 point favorite at home against Houston. They'll be a 3-4 point favorite at Oakland. Leftwich is also taking a beating.
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NO isn't in their division. The Rams just stink. They're getting ripped 17-0 by the Cards as we speak.
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Virtually unbeatable?? They've lost twice at home (and play the Eagles next week, where presumably they'll be underdogs).
Look at it this way - the Rams have lost twice as many games at home (2) as they have won non-division games (they're 1-7).
The Jets are going to kill them.
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Ahman Green has had an abysmal year. He's gone from one of the most productive RB's in the league to an outright liability. The fumbles are tolerable if you're apporaching 2,000 total yards each year.
Back in 2002, the Pats needed Green Bay to beat the Jets in week 17 for them to make the playoffs and laid a huge egg. I wish you guys better luck, as I think it would be great to see the Bills rewarded for their big second half.
I would guess that the Bills special teams has had a good an eight game run these last two months as any special teams unit has ever had in the league. Phenomenal production.
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AFC East now 11-2 versus the NFC West after the Jets win today.
Between Buffalo, New England and the Jets, we still have not seen a game where an AFC East team won by less than 8 points (9-0).
I agree with Bob - it's both.
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This may have already been discussed, but why in the world did Charlie Weiss take the head coaching job at Notre Dame?
It seems to me that he was a sure-fire candidate the get a head coaching job in the NFL after this season. He would have gotten one after last season if he wasn't prohibited from interviewing during the super bowl run.
If he didn't get a job as a coordinator after winning two Super Bowls, then why should he expect to get one this year (even if he wins #3)?
ND has more guaranteed nationally televised games than any other team in football - college or pro. He's an alum. If he wins, he'll be a hot NFL candidate.
He needs to prove himself as a head man.
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If the Steelers go 15-1, I think Bill Cowher will be coach of the year.
I think for Schottenheimer to get in the hunt, SD has to beat Indy in two weeks. If they get lit up (as is probably likely), it will cost him votes since the game will be fresh on everyone's mind.
Mora's in the hunt, but ultimately it is difficult to take the NFC seriously.
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No way. This is not to disparage Weis in any way (who I like a great deal), but Corey Dillon is by far a superior back when compared with Antowain Smith.
The Patriots spent the entire 2002 season trying to run just one successful toss sweep to Smith. They failed in that endeavor. Dillon's ability to run both inside and out has been enormous for New England this year, especially when running out the clock while playing with a lead.
Antowain Smith is a solid inside runner who does not put the ball on the ground and can block a little, but he has no speed. The most brilliant offensive coordinator on the earth would not change this fact.
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It will be interesting to see who gets the job. They don't really have an heir apparent (unlike defense, where Eric Mangini seems like the clear guy to take Crennel's place).
LOL at Gilbride - I think I'd hire a plane to fly around the stadium to campaign against that one.
Let him groom Eli into a whimpering, nepotistic Ryan Leaf -that seems appropriate.
In all reality...
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Don't count Denver out - I know they've been playing like crapola as of late, but at Tennessee and home versus Indy is a pretty easy ride in as well.
Tennessee's secondary is a disgrace to football.