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Hardhatharry

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Posts posted by Hardhatharry

    Rex Ryan : Amari is a turd

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    3 hours ago, njbuff said:

     

    When Allen and Dak went head to head, who was the better QB? 

     

    Yeah, those 5,000 yards and 30 TD's really amounted to a whole bunch of wins.

     

    With that said, I call Dak a turd only because the contract he asks for certainly doesn't warrant what he is worth.

    They went head to head? I could have sworn that the QB plays the other teams defense.

    • Like (+1) 1

    Covid-19 discussion and humor thread [Was: CDC says don't touch your face to avoid Covid19...Vets to the rescue!

    in Off the Wall Archives

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

    This is a post which, while citing sources, seems quite speculative and deserving of discussion.

     

    Put 'er here!

     

    I'll start off - I don't read Italian well, so I can't assess the calculations.  But I think the real fatality rate being 1/25th Italy's current case fatality rate may be somewhat dicey.

    I wonder if the professor actually wrote something much more guarded - that's a lower bound or something - and the press ran with it.  In any case, 1/25 of Italy's current case fatality rate would be 0.5%, which is still about 5x more deadly than seasonal influenza - and that's not assessing the impact of the hospitals being overloaded (China since 1 Feb is saying 0.7% case fatality rate, so 0.5% is not too dissimilar.  S. Korea, with widespread testing and hospital care still available to any who need it, 1.7%)

     

    Several unknowns:

    1) % of true asymptomatic cases.  S. Korea, which has done some of the most sweeping covid-19 testing, including extensive contact-tracing using Big Data, was saying 20% asymptomatic last I looked.  I"m not sure what his numbers, which amount to saying 50-80% asymptomatic (5 million symptomatic, 10-20 million  asymptomatic) have as a basis? 

     

    I think he may be basing this on Italy's own 3,400 person test case: the town of Vo, which tested every resident after the first resident died (first death in Italy).  They found 3% of the population was infected, 25% with "flu like symptoms" and 75% with "mild to no" symptoms.  How many of that 75% were truly asymptomatic vs. not sick with symptoms that were enquired about (fever, fatigue, muscle aches)?  [this is taking testing at face value - PCR is notoriously easy to contaminate]

    Iceland has reported 50% asymptomatic, but I think they may be a special case because not a lot of heavy industry/pollution injuring lungs etc.  S. Korea, which has done very widespread testing and contact tracing and seems to be handling it without lockdowns, says 20% truly asymptomatic.

    The bottom line is, until we get some pretty widespread serology testing, we don't know.

     

    2) What is the real fatality rate?  The reference given makes a pretty good case that there's an excess death rate in Italy beyond the known Covid-19 case fatality rate of 12.3%,  but I have trouble seeing it (from the reference) as 75% more.  Maybe 2x?  It's still significant.  It would not surprise me if when everything settled down, it came out that a lot more people died in Wuhan than authorities were aware of (people who chose to stay home or who couldn't alert anyone to get them), or who just weren't listed as a covid-19 death.

     

     

     

    Italy is also not counting all of the deaths, people found dead in nursing homes and other areas do not get tested.

    Would you sign a Vet QB or draft a QB vs Barkley?

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Marshallp29 said:

    With limited upgrades available at QB in FA, I still believe we have to bring in competition for Matt Barkley. If Flacco would come cheap I would certainly take him. Would you sign a QB In free agency or draft a QB this year in the later rounds of the draft? 

    You always draft, never stop drafting. Allen is in his third season and a vet won't do anything. 

    The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

    in Politics, Polls, and Pundits

    Posted · Edited by Hardhatharry

    21 minutes ago, SirAndrew said:

    Also concerning because we’re not at the point where the entire system is overwhelmed, and the numbers are already a bit ugly. 

    Well the system is overwhelmed in NY and NJ. My parents live in Jersey, say all their neighbors have it, the one left next door to get died today. They sent that lady home b.c they need the people who have a higher chance to survive be in the hospitals. She died 2 days after being sent home. 

    • Sad 1

    Erie County/Upstate New York Covid-19 Response (was: Erie Co Declares State of Emergency

    in Off the Wall Archives

    Posted

    1 minute ago, BillsFan4 said:

    https://cbs6albany.com/news/local/coronavirus-causes-nys-dmv-to-extend-vehicle-inspections

     

    NYS extending vehicle inspections. I’m glad because my inspection sticker expired today.

    It's something you know would happen but I guess it needs to be said. Just like my address change, I had an appointment with my DMV in March and it was cancelled, so I know I am good with not changing it over for a while.

    • Like (+1) 1
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