Wraith
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Posts posted by Wraith
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4 hours ago, Bob Jones said:
Thanks Yolo. This confirms what I said, and that is when he gains FULL CONTROL of the ball, his left foot is off of the ground, and his right knee is OOB. 😉
Edit: Just rewatched it about 20x….looks like no part of his right leg, knee or foot, even touches the ground (after he has full control of the ball) until it is OOB, as I see no movement of grass or ground inbounds. So, yeah, NO CATCH.
Not sure what you're seeing here. He has full control of the ball with a shin and toe down in this shot from the end of the video YOLO posted. It was a catch for sure.
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Just now, L Ron Burgundy said:
He threw well actually too. Anyone catch a count on drops? I had 2. Cook and Kincaid. I give Kincaid a pass on one of them, would have been a tougher catch if I recall.
The broadcast had the final count at 4 drops and 2 throw aways.
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A lot of you folks are overthinking it. The problem with the current rules is they are not consistent across the whole field and the solution is to make them consistent. If you fumble out of bounds backwards through your own end zone the ball is spotted where it goes out (a safety). If you fumble forward through the opponents end zone the ball goes back to the spot of the fumble. Simple.
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18 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:
It’s strictly math and probability. Kinda like the ‘let’s make a deal’ Monty Hall dilemma. You always switch from your first guess when they take one of the 3 doors away. It’s 50% probability after they take a door away vs 33% on your first guess even though it seems counter-intuitive. It’s 59% win rate going for 2 on the first attempt down 14 vs 41% kicking the extra point on first TD down 14.
Yup, Ross Tucker had a simplified diagram of the probabilities on Twitter this morning:
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55 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:
Do you think Mahomes throws the int in the 4th?
Mahomes literally threw a terrible interception in the end zone that ended up costing the Chiefs the game against the same Eagles team six days ago. Do you watch any football games that the Bills aren't playing in?
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11 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:
The d back had his back turned. He was beat no matter where davis went, the play has a built in option if the safety vacates the area and there is pressure.
it was obvious as it gets, the eagles brought pressure, Allen has no time to wait for a corner route, with pressure and the safety out of the middle and the corner with his back turned the ball goes inside. Every damn time.
its no different than tight ends who run dig routes and the break goes to where they have leverage or an inside wr breaking off a route to a quick slant because of pressure leaving the middle of the field wide open.
It was elementary stuff. That is why the damn option is built into those plays, for that exact situation. As soon as allen snapped the ball and he saw pressure, the safety moved and the corners back to him he did what he was supposed to do.
Thank you for this. It was an option route and the read is the safety, not the CB leverage. Going to the corner puts the CB between the receiver and the QB no matter what the leverage was but takes the safety out of the equation. As it was an all out blitz and the safety vacated the middle of the field Davis should have just ran a go route. Davis has a great game up to that point but he is prone to misreading the option routes and it burned them again this time.
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57 minutes ago, 90sBills said:
That guy is really pushy the ‘turnover worthy’ narrative. It’s not the same as actual turnovers.The reason you should look at turnover worthy plays rather than turnovers when assessing an individual quarterback's play is obvious and you would have to be willfully obtuse to not see it.
Tell me, which one of these was the better throw? Which one of these was the turn-over worthy play?
A) Earlier this season against Miami, Terrel Bernard fumbled a Tua pass directly into the handles of Jalen Waddle. It goes in the books as long reception.
B) In 2020, Allen threw a pass to Tyler Kroft who catches it cleanly before getting stripped of the ball while on the ground. It gets recorded as an interception.
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9 minutes ago, Roundybout said:
But he threw it too fast :(((Remember the 2020 Denver game where he threw a ball to Jake Kumerow that broke the sound barrier and Kumerow still caught it?
🤣 In a year in which I have heard a lot of dumb football punditry, the idea that Allen threw too hard to Gabe Davis on that play might be the single dumbest. There were 20 freakin' yards between Allen and Davis on that play. That play to Kumerow is one of my favorites of all time.
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4 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:
you know what else are a part of the game? Takeaways. Yes the defense has killer injuries but allowing teams to control the clock and push them up and down the field and make big plays when they want is just as bad as any turnover from the offense.
Yup! The Bills defense hasn't had an interception in six freakin' games! The Bills turnover rate on offense this season is perfectly normal, the turnover margin is terrible because the defense can't force a turnover to save their lives.
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7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
Just posted this is another thread:
He has had awful turnover luck this year. As far as I can remember zero dropped interceptions and every one of his fumbles has been recovered by the defense.
This nails it. Most people don't appreciate how much random variation affects the world, and sports fans and pundits are generally terrible at it due to their need to explain every outcome with a narrative.
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I think the Josh Allen turnover narrative is greatly overstated. Passing volume and randomness significantly affect people's perception. Your own link show's that Allen is much better than average at interception % for his career, despite supposedly being a gunslinger. Even this year, his interception rate is basically equal to Peyton Manning's career mark.
The other thing is just random luck. Through the first eight weeks of the season, Allen had 8 interceptions and two fumbles on 7 total turn-over worthy plays, in the opinion of Pro Football Focus. That means that literally every mistake Allen was making was getting picked and then some. That is not a normal rate. Every quarterback benefits from defensive backs inability to reliably catch but this year randomness has not been in Allen's favor. Meanwhile, the Bills defense has not had an interception since the Miami game six weeks ago. How many picks did they drop against Baker Mayfield two weeks ago? My count was three.
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18 hours ago, Your Brown Eye said:
Josh Allen to be able to throw to the open receiver and for the turnovers to magically disappear with Joe Brady as OC. Allen and Dorsey did not get along, so Allen was sabotaging games until Dorsey got fired.
Where is this narrative that Allen can't find open receivers/read a defense/go through progressions coming from? The graph below, from last week, shows that despite being in an offense that is well below average at getting receivers open, Allen is way above average at finding an open receiver and throwing to them. This fits with the narrative I've heard from nearly every analyst I've listened to this season that say that the Bills offense relied on Josh Allen being elite and near-perfect to make up for an overly complex yet unimaginative and undynamic offensive system and play calling.
The graph passes the smell test without a doubt. Brock Perdy is succeeding despite lack of physical gifts because he is throwing to wide open receivers and he is good at finding them. Brian Daboll is still good at scheming receivers open but Daniel Jones is straight up terrible at finding them. Patrick Mahomes has mediocre receivers who can't get separation, but like Allen he is way above average at still finding an open receiver. Despite that, there is no doubt that the KC offense has taken a huge step back just like Buffalo's.
Analysts have pretty consistently critiqued Dorsey's offense because it was exceptionally reliant on option routes across the field. The theoretical advantage of this reliance is that the Bills could respond to any defense at any time, there is no such thing as a perfect defensive call against them. However, the practical outcome is the Bills are incredibly predictable on offense. Once defenses learned the Bills' "rules" for option routes/audibles/RPOs, the defenses could constantly dictate the Bills offensive decision making and force them into outcomes where the so-called "best reads" are mediocre. The 4th and 1 play from Monday night is a great example. Based on what the defense did pre- and post-snap, the correct read was to throw it to Dalton Kincaid out in the right flat. But Kincaid was several yards behind the line of scrimmage with a linebacker and safety closing the gap. If the correct read on a 4th and 1 play is to throw to your tight end behind the line of scrimmage and hope he can break a tackle, you weren't in the right play to start with. Maybe on 3rd and 1 Allen would've taken that option and hoped to live another day but on 4th and 1 Allen clearly decides that extending the play and hoping for something "high variance" is the better option. Both the stats and the eye-test show that Allen is incredible in scenarios where he has to extend the play in this manner, so it was probably the right decision in this case but it is easy to criticize when it doesn't work out.
Most of the Bills best and worst offensive plays this year are from Allen refusing to take the so-called "correct read" because they are mediocre and instead trying to force something or extend the plays until a receiver is more open or further down field. I guarantee his interception rate goes down if the OC puts him in positions where the best options aren't consistently mediocre.
I beg some of you guys who are so opinionated on Allen's play or Dorsey to watch some of the analysts on Youtube. There are many and they are pretty consistent with their messaging about the Bills 'offensive system.
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3 minutes ago, freddyjj said:
While a loss tonight would really hurt their playoff chances, they would still only be 1 game behind Miami. Their chance of winning the division would still be very viable. So I don’t see how team’s psyche would crumble.
A lot of projection in that post you quoted. Geez.
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6 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:
You'd think... except that Elam was never listed on the injury report and now he's on IR and (correct me if I'm wrong) is reportedly having surgery on that ankle.
Wrong, Elam was on the injury report from week 7 onward.
https://www.buffalobills.com/team/injury-report/week/REG-7
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1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:
I think it's worth pointing out the Bengals run a west coast offense. That means Burrow gets rid of the ball quickly. Takes deep strikes when he sees obvious one on one advantages. The Bills were successful vs Tua despite his quick releases. However, it's quite different because Tua is mostly a first read QB. Burrow is able to go through his progressions and use his legs in big situations. Burrow is by far the best QB the Bills have faced. I don't see this defense stopping the Bengals O. Sorry.
Just saw this graphic, that utilizes PFF data, that asserts that Burrow throws to his first read at a higher rate than the NFL average and far more often than Tua. Surprising information. Makes me wonder if teams have gotten a lot better in recent weeks at taking away Tua's first read (like the Bills did) and that is why the Dolphins offense has slowed down considerably.
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5 minutes ago, Beck Water said:
Well, he hasn't been listed on injury report, would be one reason why it's not been considered.
He's been on the injury report the last two weeks:
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18 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:
Haha the Elam comment BB made is a complete joke. Nobody said anything about an injury for most of the weeks he was an inactive.
23 minutes ago, billsfan_34 said:I don’t ever remember Elam being on the injury report? If memory is correct, then I am calling bs.
You're both wrong. Elam has been on the injury report since week 7 with an ankle injury.
https://www.buffalobills.com/team/injury-report/week/REG-7
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6 minutes ago, falgobofu said:
We have been fortunate to play is a garbage division for a long time, I would like to see the scores against teams with winning record. I would bet that it would show a different picture.
How about you do the work yourself instead of throwing out unsubstantiated claims and expecting other folks to do the work to prove you wrong? We'll be here waiting on your results...
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11 minutes ago, JohninMinn. said:
We learned nothing from the Arizona Cardinals debacle.
I disagree. If anything they overcompensated for the Hail Murray and did the exact opposite. In Arizona, all three defensive backs tried to out jump each other for the ball and Hopkins outjumped them all. None of them played for positioning. This was the exact opposite, every defensive back went for the box out to the point that none of them played the ball. It seemed to be a deliberate strategy.
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Donte Stallworth (former NFL receiver, current analyst) says the Bills played the hail mary "perfectly." Here a few snippets from his thread on Twitter.
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13 minutes ago, zow2 said:
That's what Hyde, Taron and especially Poyer said after the game. They were out there to box out guys and make sure they could not get to the ball. There was no mention of knocking down or even watching the ball come down. I mean that's egregious. If McDermott is teaching that style on hail mary's we can definitely expect the Bills to get a DPI and a walk off opportunity for an opponent of ours down the road. Because if the refs see Buffalo do that again, there's a very good chance they will flag it.
Boxing out is not against the rules.
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3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:
Agree on everything, except the blatant PI. That happens on every Hail Mary, and it goes both ways. Refs know the Offense AND Defense are both jockeying for position. So very very unlikely they ever make that call. You simply arent going to avoid the contact on Hail Marys and luckily that is already understood.
Well said and, to be honest, I'm not really seeing much from the Bills that meets the a traditional definition of pass interference. Rapp and Benford boxed in that front receiver but neither one had much actual contact and they have a right to that space just as much as the receiver does.
Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys 8:15 pm
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
That's not correct. The Lions had an unbalanced line which is legal. Decker, after reporting in, is basically a tight end. There is no rule about number of people on either side of the center. If Decker reported in, which he clearly did, the Lions formation is legal.