cv05
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Posts posted by cv05
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5 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:
this is interesting, but ultimately unreliable given how many week 17 games are total toss-ups. I could see titans/Texans, bills/dolphins, and Steelers/browns going either way. All division games.
that said, I believe a browns win will provide a clear path to us likely playing them or the Colts in the 2-7 game.
Well, it's not unreliable. There are just lots of possible outcomes. The Browns are the 2nd least likely outcome.
13 minutes ago, dma0034 said:How they are listed: Dolphins, Colts, Ravens, Browns, Titans is exactly the order of who I want the Bills to play in the first round
Agreed mostly. It's shaping up pretty good for the bills if you ask me
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3 minutes ago, The Red King said:
After the early games the AFC wild card situation is an absolute mess with four teams tied at 10-5. It's not only a toss up as to who makes it in, but also where. Week 17 just got a lot more fun to watch.
Yeah, it's pretty wild how it's all shaping up. The AFC is a shark tank. Lots of good, solid teams
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This site is pretty cool - updated already with the 1 o'clock games.
http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/billsstandings.html
Here are the probabilities of who we'll match up against:
(5)Dolphins 10 5 0 43% 43% X (8)Colts 10 5 0 27% 27% X (6)Ravens 10 5 0 17% 17% X (7)Browns 10 5 0 8% 8% X (4)Titans 10 4 0 6% 6% X After the Browns, I honestly can't decide who my first choice is. Dolphins probably, but division games are tough and they have been giving us a challenge. I might rather have the Colts. Regardless, It's looking like a 70% chance its one of those two. I want nothing to do with the Titans or the Ravens.
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I wonder if the NFL is considering suspensions?
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31 minutes ago, TheProcess said:
But at least we got TJ Graham.
I honestly feel that if we drafted Russel Wilson he wouldn't have been successful. He's awesome, but we would have destroyed him with Doug Marrone and Rex Ryan. We did the NFL a favor by not drafting him...
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1 hour ago, I am the egg man said:
Tarot cards are just as accurate.
I strongly disagree... This uses pretty simple mathematics by picking the winner and loser of every NFL game thousands of times (with some probability weighting for stronger/weaker teams) to determine the most likely outcomes. Take a snapshot of this and look back of it at the end of the season - it'll likely be pretty close.
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4 minutes ago, matter2003 said:
I'm surprised the SB odds are that high to be honest...
Well, think if each team was equally matched - the odds would be 1/32 = 3.125%. I would argue that the Bills are better than average, which would put them in that range of 4%
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14 minutes ago, matter2003 said:
Our victory also affected Tennessee the most negatively, dropping their odds of making the playoffs by -22.1%!
Bills also have the 7th best odds to win the SB at 4.1%??
I guess that speaks to how easy our schedule is compared to the teams ahead of us. It also takes into account we'll likely have to play an extra game (wild card) than a team like KC, who is below us in probability odds, but will likely win their division. I'd bet odds of winning the division significantly effects this SB odds simply because of that extra game played.
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http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL.html
I've always liked this site midway through the season as they take into account the strength of schedule. It's a "Monte Carlo" style simulation where they calculate probability after running the outcome of thousands of possible ways the season could play out. They have an option to change to 50/50 for each game in which the probability drops from 85% to 67%.
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Ha! This makes me thankful the real world isn't like the internet... bunch of tough guys on here
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I always thought it was funny how much attention this ended up getting and how it's been a mark of how "crazy it is up in Buffalo at a home game".
A coworker of mine was at a Halloween party the night before the game. It was a costume party and there were some people from Boston (patriots fans) in town to watch the game. Their costume was Justin Timberlake's "**** in a box" SNL skit. Inside the box, you guessed it.
I'm pretty convinced that was the item that was thrown on the field. It may have been a Bills fan to actually do the throwing, but I've always found it funny that Buffalo's gotten all the "credit" for that one...
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Fair enough, but then why not keep Allen as a last resort? Why trade McCarron? Allen, is going to get demolished behind this line - I think they had to have known going into this that it was going to end badly for whoever is in at quarterback. You could put Tom Brady out there and he would look bad.
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I understand all of the arguments for and against starting Allen. I understand wanting to get him experience, but also avoid starting him for sake of his mental stability behind this awful line. What I don't understand is how its all actually gone down with this coaching staff.
How can you come to the conclusion, after months of training camp, practices and pre-season that you want to start Peterman, and then after 1 half change your mind? How could an NFL coaching staff paid millions of dollars be so wrong about the analysis of how it was going to go. Of course the line will be awful when 3/5 (or arguably 2/5) of your has retired/been traded and yet nothing has been done to remedy. They had to have known "this is going to be bad". Now, if they made the decision off the get go to say, "let's see what Allen can do with this" I'm all for it. But they didn't - they clearly had a plan to protect him. Now, as a knee jerk reaction they change their mind? I'm sorry but that just speaks volumes of poor planning and being completely overwhelmed.
McDermott and company stumbled into the playoffs last year and I really don't think they'll experience that "success" again.
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thanks!
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Hi Everyone,
Does anyone know what time the ECC lots open? I prefer them just because they're a little more tame and have some open fields to play catch etc.
Thanks!
Playoff Matchup Probability
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Update:
Ravens matchup chances have gone up. 1 in 5 chance...