elijah
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Posts posted by elijah
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KJ Hamler has freak speed and quickness, I look forward to seeing how he moves up and down boards
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With the current state of the roster, I don’t think there’s any ‘expected’ cuts.
That being said, i wouldn’t be surprised if Murphy, Kroft, Long or Barkley got cut.
Anyone outside of that would surprise me.
People need to realize that Star isn’t going anywhere until next offseason. He’s more valuable than the amount of cap he would save us at this point. It’s next offseason where the dead cap really really drops off and then he becomes more expendable.
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18 hours ago, billsfan89 said:
If I am mocking my game plan for the off-season I would peg it as such.
1- Cut Murphy and Kroft free up nearly 10 million more in cap space.
2- Resign Lawson, Spain, and Phillips to a combined 27.5 million aav thus still having nearly 74 million in cap space.
3- Sign Yannick to a deal in the range of 17.5 million aav to step up the pass rush
4- Sign Hunter Henry to a one year 7.5 million deal to help add a big target for Allen and allow Knox and Sweeny some time to develop.
5- Draft a big bodied WR in round 1 and draft a between the tackles runner in round 4.
6- Add a CB in round 2 to finalize an elite defense and add a LB in round 3 to sure up that position.
All that should still allow the Bills to have about 28 million in roll over to help when Dawkins and Milano need extensions in 2020 while adding Yannick and Henry to help supplement the existing roster and keeping the core free agents. When Tre's contract is up Star and Hughe's contracts become expiring thus this team has a 2 year window to win and win big. Winning beyond the next two years will depend on the drafting in 2020 and beyond as well as Josh's development. But with the existing talent core and the current cap situation you have to be able to "go for it" to an extent in the short term.
I like the plans, but I don’t think Hunter Henry on a 1 year deal is going to happen
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Why so certain Devin Funchess is a no go?
He’s a big bodied target that the team needs, he hasn’t had a truly bad year.
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2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:
I wouldn't classify Allen as a for sure resigning. He has to play better in 2020 and beyond to be a for sure resigning. Milano, Dawkins and Tre are the only ones I would say are "due."
1 hour ago, krf139 said:I stopped reading when you put Josh Allen as a “guaranteed re-signing” for close to 200 million. While Josh made progress this year, the fact we’re putting him into that bucket at those dollars right now is reckless.
The Bills qb situation is like a woman who has been single for 20 years. No man wants her and every decent man runs away. Finally she finds someone with a bit of promise, but a number of flaws. She’s been longing for a man for so long that she desperately wants it to work out. While he’s improved a bit, she seeks to justify his shortcomings and wants to make a serious commitment too soon.
Spoiler: Josh is the man and the fanbase is the woman
Maybe poor wording to call him a ‘guaranteed’ resigning, but the point was more to make sure if we were to resign him that we still have the cap space to spend elsewhere.
I tried to do a conservative projection of the off-season to assure that we’ll be able to resign our one when we have too
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6 hours ago, Gambit said:
I don't understand why people think we need to keep Poyer. McDermott has shown he is very good with finding solid DBs. And Poyer can't tackle worth a damn. Hyde is amazing tho.
I’m not sure you NEED to keep Poyer, but if you have the extra space and he continues playing at the level he is, why not give a bridge to groom your next safety?
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6 hours ago, Luka said:
I hate everything about this post.
Elaborate, let’s have a healthy debate.
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8 hours ago, Ray Stonada said:
4) Beckham would be cool, but he might not be a process guy. Unless he's a littler humbler since his debacle in Cleveland, and wants to buy into a winning team, the way Randy Moss did in New England (Moss of course was twice as good as OBJ).
5) I'd prioritize finding a solid second running back, a battering ram a la Darick Holmes or Antowain Smith, who can punish defenses once they're tired from chasing Motor all over the phone booth.
I’m a huggggeeeee process and culture fan, and the Randy Moss comparison for OBJ is what I keep using when I’m pushing for Odell. I think Odell has a lot of issues that can all be solved by winning. Most of the noise he makes is related to his losing team.
And that second running back I think is going to be found in the draft. The value isn’t their in free agency for anyone besides maybe Jay Ajayi or Jordon Howard
1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:I really appreciate the work you put into your post. Just wanted to touch on the DE specifically. I’d hate this to be our group going into the draft. Shaq has been good enough that I like him in the 3 man rotation, but I don’t think he’s full time starter material. That group needs another quality starter and then I’d be happy with it. I don’t see them cutting Murphy until they had an upgrade in place and I don’t see them getting that thin in the group.
I agree that if this is the situation I would want one more DE going into the draft, and I’m actually surprised I didn’t add one to this group.
I might go back and add someone like a Robert Quinn on a short term deal.
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19 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:
Firstly.. thanks for the effort in the first post... always enjoy reading peoples thoughts in this area, particularly when they are as well throught and as detailed as yours...
I want to question you on Spain though...
He has already come out and said he wants to stay in Buffalo and is prepared to get a deal done prior to FA starting... So I think your figures of what his expecations may be are on the high side...
Also,.. not sure if you have seen this, but a couple of his influential team mates love him... Now I know that they are not going to come out and say anything negative about him, but the comments seem more positive than you usually see...
https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/06/buffalo-bills-quinton-spain-back-mitch-morse-josh-allen/
Look.. he is not going to play for nothing ,so I think if they really want him they would need to make an offer that is fair... I would put this at 3 years $20Mil...$10 MIl guaranteed.... Ive got that from John Miller getting paid 3 years $16.5Mil in FA last year who I would rate as a much lesser player..
It seems to me that most people dont want to pay him even half that as he is just an "average" player at the position.. .
The issue is though that he was brought in on a "prove it ' deal on chump change, and he has proven it in my eyes.,.
It looks at odds to the message that they want to send of guys getting a chance and proving themselves... It may set a bad example if they dont make a genuine attempt to keep him and just let him walk out the door into Free Agency...
I have not seen those quotes from Morse answer and Allen about Spain and they definitely make me appreciate him a little more..
However, having signed that deal last year I just think he and his agent have their eyes a little bigger than 3yrs/$20M, probably closer to 4yrs//$35M.
I would kove love to have Spain back, but I can’t see Beane wanting to spend that money with what’s already invested in Morse and knowing that Dawkins is coming up as well.
2 hours ago, golfball323 said:I might have missed it, but did you have us re-signing Hyde? That's a critical piece with Poyer. Or can we not afford that tandem for what they'll likely ask for?
I didn’t have us resigning Hyde, but just because he still has 2 years left and unfortunately is getting up there in age so I wasn’t sure what an appropriate contract will be.
Who knows if if he maintains the same level or starts to take some small steps back.
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2 minutes ago, Penfield45 said:
we would be the laughing stock of the league if we gave Allen a contract extension this offseason and made him the 6th highest paid QB
let him sit on his rookie contract, it's there for a reason. we don't owe Allen anything, he has yet to prove he is a franchise QB here.
I’m not suggesting to resign Allen this off-season, I’m suggesting we resign Allen in 2022 to this money.
Its to account for it early so as too not overspend in the long run.
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5 minutes ago, NewEra said:
Spotrac projects Miilano to 4 years 53 mill. 13.3 per year
When did they put the project for Milano up? I was looking for it when I made my excel sheet ( about a week ago) but there was only a few projected players done
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2 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:
Yes, please. This offseason is their out with over $14M in cap savings and 0 dead cap on a trade. It'll be interesting to see where the new staff stands on him.
I'm putting together something similar in google sheets with cap management and the works, like last year, that I'll share around eventually. We agree in parts and disagree in others, but man does it feel great to have 52 players on the books before even re-signing anyone. Much less of a headache than last year.
I must’ve missed it when you shared it last year, I’ll be interested to see what it looks like in comparison to mine.
1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:Thanks for taking the time putting this post together. I wanted to clarify some stuff on ERFA for you because it seemed like you weren’t really clear on the concept.
It happens when a player reaches the end of their contract with less than 3 accrued seasons. The player may only resign with their original team at the league minimum tender (or more if the team chooses to offer more). They’re not allowed to negotiate with other teams, they can only sign with us as long as we tender them a contract.
Wallace, Foster and Croom will all be back under contact and most likely will be making the league minimum.
That’s huge, especially in Wallace’s case. His market value is probably around $8M, to have him on a league minimum would be one of the better value contracts in the league.
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2 minutes ago, NewEra said:
I think the actual contracts that will be given to Milano, Poyer Shaq and Dawkins are going to surprise you. You’re undervaluing all of them on an open market. Actual worth, you might be close. Bidding wars will change that
I could understand this being the case for all 4 and am certainly a little worried that it will be the case for Poyer and Dawkins.
However with Milano and Shaq I think some of us may be over estimating Shaq’s value, and Milano plays a lower paid position.
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I broke this down in depth in an excel sheet and this is just a little bit of a recap of the excel sheet. If there's enough interest in the actual numbers, I'll transfer the excel sheet to microsoft one drive or google sheets so y'all can have a look. Also, sorry for the lengthiness of this, I tried to be more brief but also wanted to show that this isn't just a half-ass breakdown and that the numbers were properly taken into account behind it so no one can just shrug it off as not possible.
STEP ONE - 2020 OFF-SEASON OUTLINE
I took numbers from Spotrac and outlaid the Bills roster for the next 5 years until 2024. I used a projected salary cap of $199,000,000 in 2020, $206,000,000 in 2021 and increased by $6M per year every year following. This is likely lower than what the true salary cap will be, but I was conservative with it intentionally as too not overspend and keep it more realistic. I also went over rookie contracts for pick #20 in each round and found that the cap hit for all 7 rounds of rookies would be somewhere around $6M total. I took this number and rounded it up to $7.25M as too account for the fact that Beane has shown his willingness to trade up and trade dead weight players for late picks. After accounting for projected rookie contracts, current and future salaries and dead cap, this projects the Bills to have salary cap numbers of 2020 - $79.8M (including rollover), 2021 - $97.3M, 2022 - $161M, 2023 - $210.75M.
STEP TWO – “TRUE VIEW"
Beane has preached over and over again to reward his in house talent and stay out of cap hell. In order to take this into account, before starting to spend the money on current Bills free agents and UFA’s, I gave contracts out too six players that I see as cornerstones for this franchise if we were to find sustained success. The contracts are as follows:
Guaranteed Resignings
2022: Josh Allen - 6 years, $190M (6th highest paid QB)
2021: Dion Dawkins - 5 years, $57.5M (14th highest paid T)
2022: Tremaine Edmunds - 5 years, $70M (4th highest paid MLB)
2021: Tre'Davious White - 5 years, $80M (highest paid CB)
Likely Resignings
2021: Jordan Poyer - 2 years, $17M (12th highest paid Safety)
2021: Matt Milano - 4 years, $32M (6th highest paid OLB)
I understand the numbers aren’t perfect, but they’re projections that at most are just a few million off. Come time, it would be easy to see Dawkins, Edmunds and Poyer possibly getting paid a little more. You could argue that Tre might get a 6 year contract instead of 5. However, again, these are just projections. The contracts should be accurate enough to get the point across.
With these projected resignings, this leaves cap space of 2020 - $79.8M, 2021 - $53.3M, 2022 - $71M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.25M.
STEP THREE – 2020 OFF-SEASON RESIGNINGS AND CUTS
Next up is who the Bills are going to resign and who they won’t resign and the value in these players. This part may become a little more controversial than the last step as too who people think we should and shouldn’t resign, and who we actually will and won’t resign.
2020 Off-Season Resignings
Senorise Perry - 1 year, $570k
LaAdrian Waddle - 1 year, $2M
Kevin Johnson - 1 year, $3.5M
Maurice Alexander - 1, $1M
Isaiah McKenzie - 1 year, $3.5M
Robert Foster - 1 year, $2.75M
Corey Liuget - 1 year, $2.5M
Dean Marlowe - 1 year, $1M
Shaq Lawson - 3 years, $22.5M
McBeane have placed an emphasis on special teams players, and therefore with the low values of Perry and Alexander and the contributions they should have to special teams, I believe they’ll be back. I like the depth that Waddle, Liuget and Marlowe offer at the prices they should be willing to resign for and thus suggest bringing them back. I’m not too well versed and the exclusive rights free agent clauses, and therefor don’t see Beane resigning Levi Wallace at what his market value will be and thus think it’s necessary to bring back Kevin Johnson. I have however seen that ERFA can be resigned at incredible value, so it may be possible we see Wallace brought back and Johnson walking.
Foster and McKenzie I had trouble making decisions on. With the emergence of Duke Williams and the guaranteed targeting of better receivers in the off-season, it’s possible that both Foster and McKenzie are let go. It’s also possible that McKenzie believes he has more value than $3.5M on the open market, so both of the receiver contracts could be off, but for now this is how I see it playing out.
As for Shaq, I thought he would be worth more money but after looking at past defensive end contracts with similar stats to Shaq, $7.5M/year may be his market value. The most comparable contract in the past 3 years was the 3yr/$27M contract that the Bills gave to Trent Murphy, and Murphy had had better stats at that point in his career. As for Jordan Phillips, I originally had the Bills resigning him at 1 year, $10M, but Beane had said this morning that Phillips earned his right to test his value on the open market and therefor I think he’s unfortunately a goner.
2020 Players Leaving
Levi Wallace - Bad value
Frank Gore - Retired
Lorenzo Alexander - Retired
Jason Croom - Not needed
Quinton Spain - Bad value
Julian Stanford - Draft/FA replacement
Kurt Coleman - Not needed
Jordan Phillips – Test the Market
Most of these don’t call for an explanation. Quinton Spain is going to ask for much more money than he’s worth. Probably upwards of 3 years at $8+ per year, and I think Beane proved his ability to find offensive lineman at value this past off-season. Wallace and Phillips were explained above.
2020 Cuts
Trent Murphy - $1.75M dead cap, $7.2M savings
Matt Barkley - $200k dead cap, $1.8M savings
Tyler Kroft - $1.6M dead cap, $4.8M savings in 2020, $6.85M savings in 2021
All three of these guys in my opinion just simply aren’t worth the money that can be had back with such little dead cap.
These moves leave us with the following cap figures 2020 - $69.3M, 2021 - $52.7M, 2022 - $63.5M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.25M
STEP FOUR – 2020 FREE AGENT SIGNINGS
2020 Free Agent Signings
Devin Funchess - 1 year, $9.5M
Case Keenum - 2 years, $8M
Eric Ebron - 2 years, $16M
Demar Dotson - 1 year, $7.5M
De'Vondre Campbell - 2 years, $11M
Morris Claiborne - 2 years, $9M
I may be underestimating the amount of money that Eric Ebron and De’Vondre Campbell are going to demand. However, the moves presented here eliminate any true “needs” in the draft and give the Bills the flexibility to truly draft best player available. This would leave us only truly needing to draft another running back. While following these signings I would still expect a first round pick or a trade to be spent on a receiver, it improves the offense enough that they would be able to suffice next year. Anything extra is just cream on the crop. This also replaces LoRax and Levi Wallace on the defensive side.
As for the cap space, there’s still a lot of moves that can be made, however cautiously. 2020 - $29.3M, 2021 - $30.7M, 2022 - $63.5M, 2023 - $129.25M, 2024 - $135.2M.
While a lot of people will pound the table for Ngakuoe or an offensive lineman such as Scherff at this point, I say pump the brakes. Ngakuoe is likely to get $15M+ per year, and then suddenly we’d be a bit against the cap in 2021 with less than $15M to take care of the small but still valuable pieces like Jon Feliciano. The cap space is there to make the big move without ruining the ability to sign our young core, but that just comes down to a roster building philosophy. Do you want to be able to have depth behind the young core? Or do you want to pair the young core with a big splash and eliminate the depth, relying on your stars and starters?
ROSTER PRIOR TO THE DRAFT
QUARTERBACK: Josh Allen, Case Keenum
RUNNING BACK: Devin Singletary, TJ Yeldon, Senorise Perry, Pat DiMarco
WIDE RECEIVER: John Brown, Cole Beasley, Devin Funchess, Isaiah McKenzie, Robert Foster, Duke Williams, Andre Roberts
TIGHT END: Eric Ebron, Dawson Knox, Tommy Sweeney, Lee Smith
OFFENSIVE TACKLE: Dion Dawkins, Demar Dotson, Ty Nsehke, Ryan Bates, LaAdrian Waddle
OFFENSIVE GUARD: Jon Feliciano, Cody Ford, Spencer Long, Ike Boettger,
CENTER: Mitch Morse
DEFENSIVE END: Jerry Hughes, Shaq Lawson, Darryl Johnson, Mike Love
DEFENSIVE TACKLE: Ed Oliver, Star Lotulelei, Harrison Phillips, Corey Liuget, Vincent Taylor
OUTSIDE LINEBACKERS: Matt Milano, De’Vondre Campbell, Vosean Joseph, Maurice Alexander
INSIDE LINEBACKERS: Tremaine Edmunds, Corey Thompson
CORNERBACKS: Tre White, Taron Johnson, Kevon Johnson, Morris Claiborne
SAFETY: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer, Dean Marlowe, Siran Neal, Jaquan Johnson
SPECIALISTS: Steven Hauschka, Corey Bojorquez, Reid Ferguson.
I haven’t started my scouting yet, but I would say target a WR on day one, RB/O-line/DE/CB on day 2, LB/CB/O-Line/QB on day 3. Keep in mind, the Beane has 6 picks between the 5th and 6th round to trade around with. I could see the Ebron signing being a stretch, and in the scenario that something along those lines don't happen, I would LOVE to add a tight end on day 2.
Also, some people with love it, some people will hate it, but I'm personally keeping my eye on Odell Beckham this off-season. I think all of his "character issues" come solely from losing and that he would be a great addition to this offense if the Browns were willing to trade him.
You may not agree with the moves I suggested or the exact amount of money I suggested making them for, the points stands true. This team has PLENTY of money to not only retain their own, but improve the roster with outsiders as well. This off-season should be a more than exciting time as a Bills fan.
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I’ll anxiously watch the Sabres game alone albeit probably surrounded by my girlfriend and sisters in the room. My girlfriend will half ass watch the game with me and my sisters will stare at their tablets, we got them into the Bills but the Sabres seemingly aren’t good enough/exciting enough or big enough yet for their interest. I’ll probably annoy the ***** out of them in the meantime solely out of an anxious combination of boredom and excitement.
We’ll probably start boozing sometime around the start of the third period. I’m just coming of age (21) so I’ve finally been able to find my happy ground of an enjoyable buzz during the game over the past 2-3 years rather than an immature drunk, but over these past 4-5 weeks I’ve admittedly taken a step back in the development because a better team with higher stakes have the nerves a little more rattled each week and leads to anxious drinking lmao.
Then around 4ish my parents will get home from work a little early and a combination of my friends and my dads friends will arrive shortly after with lots of beer and food. Maybe we order a pizza instead because it’s not a Sunday with a full morning of free time to prepare.
Admittedly they’ll be too loud to watch the game as intently as we’d like, especially considering I’ve been visiting my girlfriends house in LI for a week so it’ll be a mini homecoming party, but the companies worth it most of the time.
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I love the list, however would’ve personally found a way to sneak the Dallas Thanksgiving game on to the list
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2 hours ago, BuffaloSol said:
You're not an Allen supporter. We get it you think he isn't going to be good. You probably thought that pre draft and now have to defend your stance.
I bang the table for Josh, I’m a huge Josh supporter.
The statement above is being thrown way too much by Bills fans, half of the Josh Allen doubt at this point has been created and repeated by Bills fans that support Josh Allen just because there’s some vendetta against the pre-draft pundits of Allen. It’s almost like in an attempt to defend Allen, they’re actually furthering the rhetoric.
To rightfully admit that Deshaun Watson is currently better and with higher potential than the also talented and potential full Josh Allen doesn’t mean that I don’t like Josh Allen.
The anti-anti-Josh Allen movement is like the Me Too and feminist movements in that the point has been made already and now people are just going too far and only hurting themselves and their stances.
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If you’re choosing Allen over Watson you’re blinding yourself as a Bills fan.
This shouldn’t be a debate.
Im as big of an Allen supporter as there is, but Watson is primed to be one of the best in the league for a long long time.
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18 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:
his team has plenty of cap space to resign Shaq, Phillips, and Spain (or at least 2 out of the 3) and add a big piece like Ngakuoe at around 15-18 million aav, without compromising the ability for the team to give out extensions. This team if they cut Kroft and Murphy (two players of little value) will have about 100 million in cap space. Even if it takes 30 million to resign Shaq, Phillips and Spain they still have 69 million left in cap space. They can make that big splash and still have over 50 million in space. They can even spend 10 million more on other depth/role needs and still have 40 plus million to roll over and kick in once extensions are needed in 2021 to the 2017 draft class.
Obviously you can make it work in the short term when there’s $90M in cap space this year, the issue is how it’s going to work in the following years when there’s bigger contracts to be handed out.
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17 minutes ago, H2o said:
Josh and Tremaine still have what would be 3 years left, assuming we exercise the 5th year options. The other guys though? Yes. Feliciano also only has one more year on his contract. Spain was signed to a one year deal as well and is an impending FA. Shaq Lawson is another impending FA. Dang, so is Phillips. We need to get our main guys taken care of first and hopefully they do that before FA even gets underway. We have a lot of FA's to sign.
Even so, that 5th year option is going to be expensive. And say that it is still 3 more years, Ngakuoe would likely be a 6 year contract worth upwards of $100M and hitting the most expensive final 3 years of his contract by that time.
I think Beane is too smart to make a deal like that. He didn’t take us out of cap hell to spend his money short sighted and put us right back in it.
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For a GM that preaches staying in house, Ngakuoe might just cost too much to make this happen.
Dawkins, Poyer, Milano, Tre White, Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds are just a few names coming up in the next 2 years.
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Devin Funchess, WR
Eric Ebron, TE
Robert Quinn, DE
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I suppose this is a good thread to ask in..
I’m 21 so Wade Phillips was just before my team.. Why did the team fire him? On paper he appeared to be a pretty good coach in Buffalo
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This was the week of the Titans game.
Still a definite “ouch” though.
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First weekend without real football: what will you watch?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Truly incredible that I’ve never tied the username to the fact that you live in Ohio