Trust The Process
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Posts posted by Trust The Process
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Unlike Granato, Lindy will toughen this young team up.
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I'm guessing La'el Collins will play the role David Edwards played last season
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12 minutes ago, stinky finger said:
You presume to know how CS will be utilized.
You shouldn’t.
I didn’t presume. I did my homework on Samuels with analytics, scouting reports, and how he was used in Washington and with Joe Brady in Carolina. I expect to see mostly the same in Buffalo with slightly better stats. Samuel’s career yards per reception is not impressive, and isn’t a big play threat despite running the 40 yard dash in 4.31 seconds which means he doesn’t play fast.
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Who helps Allen and our offense most?
Sign Derrick Henry for the money we spent on Samuel, and draft a X WR within the first 2 rounds? OR…
Sign Samuel and draft a X WR?
Sign Samuel and draft a RB?
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12 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:
Because they didn’t want to go into the season with a WR room of Diggs, Shakir and rookies ..Our OC had worked with Samuel before and knows he can fit into the scheme he is designing.. so he probably prefers to have him rather than have a rookie he doesn’t know as well…
Also … Its an odd thing … but not every rookie comes in Year 1 Week 1 with the experience, confidence and knowledge of a vet …
Hollins will be the Sherfield replacement … plays some Teams and gets about 40 plays for the yearMy complaint with Beane is bad asset management and for not being skilled at reading the draft board in a WR rich draft.
I can replace Davis with a rookie in the first 2 rounds of the draft for a lot less money than what we paid Samuel who only plays 58% of the snaps. The rookie I draft can be Diggs future replacement with a snap count similar to Diggs. Beane just need to do his job and hit on the receiver he drafts. It’s a calculated risk.
I can replace Sherfield with a day 3 rookie WR who’s a lot cheaper with much more upside than Hollins.
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Huge safety free agency class and we get nothing.
Deep WR draft and we sign Hollins and Samuel.
We trade Bates but we release Morse
And we sign Morrow and depth guys instead of addressing starters.
Once again, Beane is doing the opposite of which makes sense. He did the same thing the year we traded for Diggs. The depth at WR was strong in that draft and what Beane chose to do is trade for Diggs instead of drafting Jefferson. We shouldn’t have had to waste additional draft picks and a ton of valuable cap space on Diggs.
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The WR depth in this draft is strong. Why spend $8M per year on a JAG like Samuel who’s lucky to get 100 targets when you can draft a WR for a lot less money to do the same? Once again, Quintessential bad asset management by Beane.
Also, Samuel lines up 53% of the time in the slot which will take snaps away from mostly Shakir followed by Kincaid which is a huge mistake. When Samuel lines up as a X Receiver he’ll compete for snaps with the player we draft.
In 2023, Samuel’s snap share was 56.7% which is what I envision he’ll get here in Buffalo. In my opinion that’s not a good return on investment when I could draft a WR for a lot cheaper in a strong receiver draft.
Hollins shouldn’t have been signed for up to $3M per year either when we could’ve drafted a WR on Day 3 to do the same or more for a lot less money.
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38 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:
So, nobody then?
We gonna put a hot dog vendor at DT?
IMO the OP has a pretty decent guess. Seems likely we can't pay Epenesa or Floyd. We'll be working hard to bring Jones back and IMO we've got a decent chance there, for more than $3M a year. One or two of the others also seems fairly likely.
My post is not about who’s likely to re-sign with us, but is about what I’d like for us to pay.
“So nobody then? We gonna put a hotdog vendor at DT”? that’s what Free Agency and the Draft is for.
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We have a grand total of 23 players we need to replace on our roster. 14 DEFENSIVE, 7 OFFENSIVE, and 2 SPECIAL TEAMS. Beane has a lot of work to do, especially on the defensive side of the ball.
BILLS DEFENSE: 14 (3 DE's, 5 DT, 1 LB, 3 CB's, and 2 SAFETYS)
DE AJ Epenesa
DE Shaq Lawson
DE Leonard Floyd
DT Tim Settle
DT Jordan PhillipsDT DaQuan Jones
DT Linval Joseph
DT Poona Ford
LB Tyrel DodsonCB Tre White
CB Dane Jackson
CB Cam Lewis (also plays Safety)
SS Micah Hyde
FS Jordan Poyer
OFFENSE: 7 (3 WR's, 2 RB's, 1 C, and 1 G)
WR Gabriel Davis
WR Trent Sherfield
WR Deonte HartyRB Ty Johnson
RB Latavius Murray
C Mitch Morse
G/C Ryan Bates
SPECIAL TEAMS (2)
ILB Tyler Matakevich
CB Siran Neal (also plays CB)
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8 hours ago, ngbills said:
My exact thoughts. Our cap situation is much worse this year than last but we double or triple the money to Rapp when he would likely be available during free agency for peanuts. Then we increase our back up QB spend from $1M on Allen to an almost $3M cap hit. These two guys are costing between $6M-$8M when it could have been had for $2-$4M. That $4M could have gone a long way.
The biggest complaint that I have with Beane is he historically mismanages cap space. The bottom of the roster, especially the Special Teams, gets paid too much. He also hands out too many mid-tier player contracts. For example, instead of paying big free agent dollars on one elite or Pro Bowl level DT, he'll sign 2 good DT's for around the same money the great one received. Since Beane got hired, for the most part, has failed miserably at signing Free Agents along the DL and at spending premium draft picks along the DL within the first 3 rounds of the draft which is where you find blue chip prospects and foundational pieces of your team, and where the margin of error must be at its lowest because precious cap dollars are invested in those picks. Every mistake is multiplied.
Another thing that I noticed is Beane is an impatient person. Want proof? He traded up 4 times in the past 6 drafts, and signs an above average amount of players before the beginning of Free Agency. He needs to relax and let things play out and let things/opportunities come to him. He needs to improve at reading the draft board in the first 3 rounds and at reading the Free Agent pool. Want proof? 2020 was the year we traded for Diggs, and that was the year the NFL Draft was LOADED with WR's. And, despite it being a strong receiver draft, what did Beane choose to do? He chose to trade our first-round pick (No. 22 overall), a 2020 fifth-round pick, a 2020 sixth-round pick, and a 2021 fourth-round pick for Diggs and a 7th round pick. Pick number 22 overall ended up being Justin Jefferson. Beane panicked, he didn't trust himself enough to hit on a receiver in the draft instead.
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Hard NO to Settle who's just another guy I can replace with someone else cheaper.
Hard NO to Phillips, gimp, can't trust his availability.
Hard NO to Lawson who's just another guy. I'd rather draft his replacement on Day 3 of the Draft.
I'd bring back Floyd but only for less than market value which isn't going to happen anyways.
Jones for no more than $3M per year for 1-2 years
Epenesa for no more than $5M per year
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The Safety Free Agent market is loaded. What's the rush, Beane? Since the Safety market is loaded and most are better than Rapp is, McBeane could've taken a calculated risk and banked on him being available when the market goes dry and sign him for between vet minimum $915K and no more than the $1.77M he made last season.
The reason why McBeane re-signed Rapp is because they have trust issues which is why they sign a lot of players they're familiar with. Trubisky and Haack is back for the very same reason. The Steelers released Trubisky 23 days ago, nobody wanted him. Why sign him now when you could've taken a calculated risk and waited to see what offers he gets from other teams before you offer him a contract? Last season Trubisky played like a 3rd string QB for God sakes and a veteran minimum QB!!! Based on that, in my opinion, is what Trubisky's market value should be.
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Harty should be the next cap casualty
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I want us to draft a receiver who's a threat to score on any given play which is why I'm intrigued with Worthy.
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2 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
Thomas Jr
AD Mitchell
Xavier Legette
Xavier Worthy
Franklin
These are my 5 favorite WR's. I'd be thrilled to draft any one of them.
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@spotrac has the #Bills at $287.9 million in Top 51 player contracts, putting them at an estimated $32.5 million over the new salary cap limit of $255.4.
Some work for Brandon Beane to do - as we’ve been discussing - but not as bleak a picture as a few weeks ago.
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*VALUE FREE AGENTS ACCORDING TO MOSTLY SPOTRAC AND PFF ANNUAL AVERAGE SALARY
DEFENSE
SS Jeremy Chinn: $3M
SS Jordan Fuller: 6MSS Julian Blackmon: 6M
FS Alohi Gilman: $4-$5M
FS Darnell Savage: $4.5M
FS Jordan Fuller: $6M
DE Yetur Gross-Matos: I couldn't find a projected Average Annual Salary for Gross-Matos but should be affordable
DE Clelin Ferrell: $3M
DE Carl Lawson: $3MDE Marcus Davenport: 3.5M
DE: Yannick Ngakoue: $4M
DE A.J. Epenesa: $5.6M
DE Tyquan Lewis: $6M
DE D.J. Wonnum: $6.5M
DE Jadeveon Clowney: $7.2M-$9M
DE Denico Autry: $7.25M
DE Andrew Van Ginkel: $7.5M
DE Leonard Floyd: $8.1M
DE Josh Uche: $8.3M
DE Dorance Armstrong: $8.5M
LDT Sebastian Joseph-Day: $3.5M
LDT Raekwon Davis: $4M
LDT Javon Kinlaw: $5.4M
LDT Teair Tart: 4M
RDT: Maurice Hurst: $1.5M
OFFENSE
RWR Jalen Reagor: $1M
RWR Van Jefferson: $2.3M
RWR Donovan Peoples-Jones: $2.7M
RWR Devin Duvernay: $3M
RWR: D.J. Chark: $4M (as low as 4M (A to Z Sports) and as high as $10.9M (Spotrac)
RWR Kendrick Bourne: $5M
RWR Josh Reynolds: $5.5M-$7MRB Ty Johnson: $1.1M
RB Rashad Penny: $1.5M
RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire: $1.6M
RB J.K. Dobbins: $2M
RB Ezekiel Elliott: $2.7M (I listed Zeke just because McBeane loves to sign veteran RB's)
RB D'Onta Foreman: $3M
RB A.J. Dillon: $3.5M
RB Antonio Gibson: $3.6M
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Poyer and Hamlin are under contract, and Rapp and Hyde are both unrestricted free agents, which means we have 2 Safety roster spots to fill which doesn't include Cam Lewis who's also a free agent and an emergency Safety. Beane made it clear we're not going to break the bank in free agency, at best we'll sign one for up to mid-level money with an Annual Average Salary in the $5-8M range which is currently outside of the top 19 highest paid Safety's in the league.
Below is a list of some of the UFA Safety's that I like that projects an Average Annual Salary of up to $8M.
SS Jeremy Chinn: $3M (built like a linebacker and runs like a cornerback, Chinn is a freak, do-everything safety/linebacker/nickel back similar to Rapp)
SS Julian Blackmon: $6M (another do-everything Rover Safety/LB/NB in the mold of Chinn and Rapp. Indy DC Gus Bradley runs a Cover 3 Defense, same as McD)
FS Jordan Fuller: $6M (is a ball-hawking FS. 2023 stats include 68 PFF, 3 FF, 3 INT's, 5 Pass Breakups to go along with the lowest passer rating against of his career. Fuller was one of the better graded tackling and run defense safeties by PFF’s metrics)
FS Geno Stone: $8M (2nd in the NFL with 7 INT's while playing nearly 1,000 snaps. 84.9 PFF coverage grade. A deep FA safety crop might reduce his market.
FS Alohi Gilman: I couldn't find an Average Annual Salary for Gilman but I'm assuming he won't cost much. Gilman is my super sleeper of the free agent Safety group. Versatile player who can play both deep and in the box. 86.1 PFF. 73 Total Tackles 3 FF, 2 INT's, and 10 Pass Breakups. Gilman was PFF’s 7th highest-graded safety and 5th best in coverage.
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Aside from the multiple hall of famers, the trait that the 4 straight Super Bowl teams had that this team doesn’t have is swag
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If you wanna head coach to rebuild the culture and make the playoffs? McD is your man. Want to win a Super Bowl? McD is not your man.
I predict McD gets fired after the 2025 season. Pegs will serve us a new batch of Kool-Aid by hiring a new head coach when the new stadium is ready to go in 2026. Book it.
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Most of the Bills cap dollars and premium draft picks have been spent on defense yet McD's defense is allowing an average of 27.6 PPG in 6 playoff losses. YIKES!!
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7 minutes ago, FireChans said:
I’d love to see records of other coaches in one score games.
Not sure, however, when you have a great QB like Allen, McD must have a better a winning percentage than 52% in one score games.
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This is how I assess blame as to why the Bills haven't been more successful ever since McBeane took over.
McD: 55%
Beane: 30%
Players: 15%
McD's RECORD IN 1 SCORE GAMES
2017: 6-3
2018: 3-3
2019: 4-6
2020: 6-1
2021: 0-6
2022: 7-3
2023: 6-7
McD's record in 1 score games including the playoffs is 32-29 equals a winning percentage of 52.4%. This stat proves when its crunch time McD is average, which is unacceptable, and has been detrimental in the playoffs.
McD's RECORD ON CHALLENGES
2017: 1-3
2018: 0-6
2019: 2-3
2020: 2-3
2021: 1-2
2022: 1-3
2023: 3-3
McD has a combined record of just 10-23 on challenges since becoming Head Coach of the Bills. That's a success rate of only 30.3% which is amongst the worst in the NFL when it comes to tossing the flag. Incredibly, McD has never had a season in which he has won more challenges than he has lost.
McD's PLAYOFF VICTORIES
2020: Phillip Rivers and Lamar Jackson (Wildcard Round and Divisional Round)
2021: Mac Jones (Wildcard Round)
2022: Skylar Thompson (Wildcard Round)
2023: Mason Rudolph (Wildcard Round)
Notice a pattern here? Aside from a 39 year old Rivers, McD's playoff victories came verses QB's who suck.
McD's PLAYOFF LOSSES
2017: Blake Bortles (Wildcard Round)
2019: Deshaun Watson (Wildcard Round)
2020: Pat Mahomes (AFC Championship Game)
2021: Pat Mahomes (Divisional Round)
2022: Joe Burrow (Divisional Round)
2023: Pat Mahomes (Divisional Round)
The pattern here is, aside from losing to Blake Bortles, McD hasn't beaten any great QB's in the Playoffs. Watson was a great QB at the time McD faced him.
POINTS ALLOWED IN PLAYOFF LOSSES
2017: 1O vs Jacksonville
2019: 22 vs Houston
2020: 38 vs Kansas City
2021: 42 vs Kansas City
2022: 27 vs Cincinnati
2023: 27 vs Kansas City
The pattern here is McD's defense is allowing a whopping average of 27.6 PPG in 6 playoff losses. McD is a defensive coach yet his defenses has gotten shredded in 4 of 6 playoff losses, 4 years in a row to be exact. Wrap your brain around that.
NOTABLE PLAYOFF STATLINE IN 3 GAMES VS KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
McD's defense only forced the Kansas City Chiefs to Punt a grand total of 4 times in 3 playoff games, and allowed an average of 35.7 PPG. Good grief. How in the world is McD still the head coach of this team? It boggles the mind.
Beane shares the 2nd most blame, mostly for doing a bad job with Free Agency. Didn't spend cap dollars wisely, especially on the defensive line. Bad contracts. As far as the draft goes, Beane has done a great job from rounds 4-7 but at an average job in rounds 1-3 which is where you find your blue chip players/difference makers, and where precious cap dollars are spent.
The Players shares the least most blame, mostly for not making enough plays to win in crunch time in one score games during the regular season, and more so in the playoffs.
The bottom line is stats don't lie, it tells a story.
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R E L A X
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
We have 10 draft picks yet a lot of Bills fans think the sky has fallen after 1 stinking round