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PlayoffsPlease

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Posts posted by PlayoffsPlease

    Chance of Playoffs now, according to NYT simulator

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by PlayoffsPlease

    1 hour ago, Lost said:

    There is scenarios where we can get into the playoffs with only 9 wins.  Basically if Pittsburgh loses the rest of their games which is kinda probable at this point...and... two of the other remaining contenders Colts, Browns, Bengals, Broncos to lose 3 of their last 4, and also for one of them to lose two of their last four.  Also pretty probably since most of those remaining teams play each other still and have at least one "tougher" game on their schedule.   In this case, the Bills could drop to both KC and Dallas but still get in with 9 wins.  

    Its possible.  But there would be about 12 games non-Bills that would have to go a specific way for this to happen.  Including Jets beating Cleveland in Cleveland.  Roughly 1 in 2^12 = 1/4096 .    If you add in the the 3 Bills games as having to go our way, that makes in 1 in 2^15 = 1/32768.  

    Even if you assume the likely outcome of all 15 games is 80% likely they way we need them to go ,which is not remotely close to the truth, but for fun we will pretend it is, then the Bills chances of getting this alignment on 15 games is  .8^15 =  3.5% chance. 

    Putting it in rolling the dice terms, it is likely that on any one role, I will not roll a 5 or 6.   But the odds of me rolling a die 15 times in a row with never hitting a 5 or 6 is 0.2%

     

    Hopefully, the Bills win out, and we don't need lottery odds.  I suspect if we lose to both of the Chiefs and Cowboys, that during those two weeks, some other results would already have not gone our way, and we would be mathematically eliminated.


     


     

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    Von Miller faces arrest in domestic violence case in Dallas

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

    I obviously disagree. Other players, either current or future, shouldn’t have their wages reduced because a guy who used to be on your team did something that was completely unrelated to football. That is not what the salary cap is there for. 

    I am talking about the facts of how the current salary cap works, based on negotations with the players union and the owners, and codified in their agreement. 

    You certainly can have an opinion of how it should be changed.  But I think the facts of how it  applies in Von Millers contract situation currently are what they are. 

    Von Miller faces arrest in domestic violence case in Dallas

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

    Maybe you misunderstood. My point is that if he’s gone through due process, it seems like that would void any impact on the team’s cap. Whereas his individual contract would depend on what the terms of that contract require. 

    I am pretty sure the individual contracts follow a form. The salary cap works the same for all of them. If the contract needs to be paid, the salary cap needs to be respected. You rolls the dice on a guaranteed contract, and you you pays the bank if you crap out. 

    3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

     

    Araiza was cut by the team.

     

    NFL players are "employed at will", the team can cut them at any time (and bear contractual consequences)

     

    Araiza was not disciplined or suspended by the team or the NFL.

     

     

     

     

    Do you think he is being fairly considered to fill punter roles at this point? Or do you think there is some collusion against him? If not why has he not gotten a second chance?

    Week 10: Bills at Browns

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    11 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

    I've seen very few national media figures predict a blowout.  Most are leaning towards the Bills (as is the betting public).  You can certainly highlight the doubters though.

     

     

     

     

     

    the bills are betting underdogs, the moneyline on the Bills is +130.   What makes you think bettors are leaning towards the Bills? 

    Week 10: Bills at Browns

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    1 minute ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

    it should and hope it was. I really hope the team heard this, I know it would motivate the hell out of me.

     

     

    its not a very good match up for the Bills.  Browns have a good pass rush, which is something the Bills struggle with.  The Bills do not have a good pass rush which is something the Browns struggle with.    Chubb up the middle is a bit scary.    If the Bills win this game, they are a legit contender to advance in the playoffs.  If they lose the game, they are likely a one and done playoff team.  If they lose badly per Riddick, the wheels could come flying off the Bills. 

     

    Week 10: Bills at Browns

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, first_and_ten said:

    This game scares me. The Browns should be desperate. I sure hope the Bills are ready!!

    Truly bad browns games so far:

    image.thumb.png.ba3be34ce93cddd2e4afbda1b3b6dd3b.png

     

    This is why the Browns are favored.  I do not like Mayfield.  The Bills very much need to win this game.   Or I will be sad. 

    TNF - Chargers & Raiders

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    1 hour ago, wagon127 said:

    Neither. Whoever wins this game, route for the opposite team in week 16. or don't because so much can happen between now and the end of the year. I have a hard time worrying too much about teams that are 2-3 games behind the bills. Rather focus on teams that are ahead of us or just slightly behind us.

    well there is only one game tonight, so that has the OP's focus. 

    Daboll is an excellent play caller

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    7 hours ago, George C said:

    Geez...

    We’re not Cleveland. Let’s not fire everyone on a whim... Let them develop the team and the players for gods sake. 

    Daboll is and should be our coordinator for the foreseeable future. 


    The classic backwards understanding of cause and effect.  Cleveland makes bad coaching hires not bad coaching fires. Do you think holding on to Freddie Kitchens is a winning formula for the Browns.   NFL coaches who don't win much don't typically last past three years.  This more or less because they have demonstrated they are not that good at that point.  

    Jason Whitlock may be on to something..

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    2 hours ago, yungmack said:

    I have to ask, Which faith? Even among Christians there are deep and profound differences about what "Christian" means. For example, the different rules and dogmas about divorce, homosexuality and even having ordained clergy. 

     

    1) its not clear you have to ask

    2) I purposely avoided being specific and offered a concept of adhering to your beliefs, that is independent from the specific belief set.   My only point is that you being a solid participant in your faith means sticking to it.  If you are  seventh day adventist one day, a jehovah witness the next day, a mormom the following day, and Orthodox Christian, Catholic or Protestent Christian the following days, I don't think you are a very strong member of that system. 

    Jason Whitlock may be on to something..

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Olympus said:

    I think this just comes down to what your opinion is on how to build a football team. Personally, I don't think you change your concepts to fit your players, I think you put the players you have in your concepts, and if they don't fit than you get new players. I think the purge of the likes of Gilmore, Watkins, Glenn, Preston Brown, Darby, etc. etc. was a great early example of this. Brandon Beane and Sean McDermott took a year of looking mediocre in order to build a team that adhered to their rigid faith (in the Buffalo Bills).

    Recent history of the teams that actually win Super Bowls, (Patriots, Seahawks  Eagles, Ravens) is a who is who of coaches who adapt their system to their talent.  The current glairng exmaple is John Harbaugh tossed aside a former super bowl winning QB who was a protype pocket passer and replaced the entire offensive scheme to fit a QB that is entirely different in style.  Seems to be working. 

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    Jason Whitlock may be on to something..

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Olympus said:

    I agree with you and I don't think there is a direct correlation with Christianity and good football coaching. HOWEVER, I do think that the personality traits of a -->GOOD<-- Christian has some overlap with the personality traits of a good leader of men. Though this is not specific to Christianity and more specific to general faith, and X's and O's are still more important than a head coaching applicant's faith, but with only 32 of these jobs available in the entire world ideally a head coach will have a majority of the desirable traits.

    One personality trait that is desirable in a Christian (IMHO) is rigidly adhering to the tenets of the faith, even if cultural trends, change some of those tenets from popular to unpopular.   I think the most successful coaches have been pretty flexible and changing things as their talent changes.   One concern I have with McDermott is that he has a "system" and wants talent to fit the system, and is not really able to optimize his approach to the game to fit the talent available. 

     

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    Jason Whitlock may be on to something..

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Olympus said:

    In my uneducated opinion, the way Belichick runs the patriots is definitely different, but with some noticeable similarities. It appears like Belichick is constantly void of the emotional aspect of the game, and is robotically logical about the sport. I STILL think that Belichick wanted to trade Tom Brady and keep Garoppolo for the net gain of draft picks and a negligible drop-off in ability (with a much longer outlook), but I think Kraft stepped in and gave Tom Brady what was in Kraft's opinion owed to Tom. In Belichick's opinion, no one person was more important than the Patriots, and if you can do something that benefits where your faith lies than you do it, and you exercise your emotional discipline.  

    I consider myself a faithful Christian.   But it is very clear there is no demonstrable correlation between the depth of coaches religious faith and winning football teams.  It neither diminishes or increases a coaches success level.   

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    Jason Whitlock may be on to something..

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Olympus said:

    I think Whitlock had a really good point on this, but I don't think he communicated it well. I don't think Christianity is a requirement for a football head coach, but I think faith is very important. Whether it be a Christian, a Muslim, a Jew, or anything in between, I think what's important is having the unquestioned leader of your football team to be an example of selfless faith. Every head coach wants their players to sacrifice their own pride for the betterment of something that's bigger than one person. As someone with a strong faith in Christ, McDermott breeds a productive culture of accountability and creates an environment where the whole building has the same self-expectations.

    If winning is the end goal, would you say that Bill Belichick has the strongest faith for building a football culture?

    Jason Whitlock may be on to something..

    in The Stadium Wall Archives

    Posted

    McDermott has had better results that Dick Jauron, Chan Gailey or Rex Ryan.  Kudos to him for that. 

    He has not had better results than Bill Belichek,  Mike Tomlin, Andy Reid, or John Harbaugh. The AFC has couple of true clown coaches right now with Kitchens and Gase. 

     

    The other head coaches in the AFC:

    Flores  - not big enough body of work to really judge.  he shows promise 
    Vrabel - Results similar to McDermott

    Gruden - notwithstanding the mocking, he actually has a solid track record
    Reich - hard to argue he is not doing at least as well as McDermott
    Zac Taylor - not big enough body of work to really judge , seems horrible though
    Bill O'Brien - another guy heavily mocked. His team has 6 wins and seems ok though this year.
    Doug Marrone - has been the Jags head coach about as long as McDermott. Made a championship game in that time. Would not want him here again. 
    Vic Fangio - Broncos not big enough body of work to really judge.

    its not clear that McDermott is anything more (or anything less) than middle of the pack in the AFC among head coaches. 

    If the Bills had the absolute best talent in the AFC, I would say McDermott is good enough to give the Bills a 50/50 shot to win the AFC championship.   If the Bills have middle of the pack talent, then I expect McDermott to have middle of the pack results. 

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