sven233
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Posts posted by sven233
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Honestly, there is a lot that you can carry over from the last few years. We've been one of the highest scoring teams in the league over the past several seasons so if it ain't broke, don't fix it. Concepts like mesh, pin and pull, duo, etc should stay, but where I think expanding and adding to these concepts is very important. It seemed like there were too many times last year we would just spam these same concepts over and over because they were the only things that were working. The problem is, teams figured this out and we had no counter punch. That's why I think many in this board started to hate these concepts. It just got to the point they were relied on too much. However, these are core concepts that absolutely have a place in our offense.
What I want to see, though, are some of the concepts we've gotten away from since Daboll left make a return. I miss the jet sweeps, the constant motion and eye candy, the misdirection, push passes, etc. I know the type of WR we have now has changed and we don't have a lot of those gadget guys anymore, but there is still a place for this. But perhaps the biggest thing we need to find a way to do is to bring back the slant pass into this offense. It has been virtually absent from our offense for years now so much to a point where it's a joke when they actually use it and it works. I know it's not Allen's favorite pass to throw, but with the focus on bigger WRs in the offense, a slant is one of the biggest weapons you can use. Same with back shoulder throws. Finally, I believe this offense will run a lot through Kincaid and making sure you continue to use him up the seams and on deep overs. While they didn't do this early in the season, they did it late in the year with great success. I said it when he was drafted and he did nothing last year to show I might be wrong.....I truly believe he can be the next great TE in this league. Everyone was raving about LaPorta and the season he had last season, and he was very good, but it was mainly because they chose to feature him early and often whereas our coaching staff chose to incorporate Kincaid slower than was necessary. However, I expect him to be featured early and often this season and, providing everyone is healthy, I think he is going to explode this year.
As for the defense, while several of the faces may change, I don't expect to see much different than what we've been accustomed to. While we did play a bit more cover 1 and cover 3, and did get out of that 2 deep shell more last season, and while I do expect that to continue, this defense is what it is and they pay their system for better or worse. What could help is honestly just staying healthy. Injuries over the last couple seasons have slowed this defense and taken away what it is designed to do, so health rather than concepts might be more important. This defense relies on getting pressure from the front 4. So, can Oliver pick up where he left off? Can Von get back to form now another season removed from injury? Can Groot stay healthy all season and become a more dominant and consistent player? Can AJ, Solomon, and some of the new depth contribute to a sustained pass rush? Can Jones stay healthy and dominate for an entire season? Can Milano come back to his all pro form? Can TB stay healthy and build on his breakout season? I really am not concerned about the new faces on the back end. They will be just fine. To me, it's not about a change in philosophy necessarily, but rather health. If we get beat up again, we're going to be in trouble no matter what we want to run. But hey..... go out and score 30+ and make teams keep up. If we do that, we'll win more than we lose for sure.
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3 hours ago, HardyBoy said:
I don't agree with that interpretation...I see it as he was among a tier of players where they felt comfortable spending a pick without spending future assets to trade up, where they saw they had say five players when they were at 28 that they valued equally, so they knew if they dropped to 33 they would be guarenteed to get one of those five.
That doesn't mean they didn't have Coleman as one of their guys they wanted...it's just they would have been equally good with anyone in that tier and they would have been just as pumped to draft anyone in that tier equally...Coleman definitely was their guy, as were several others in that range I'm sure.
They definitely didn't settle...they got who they wanted, added a 3rd and went from the bottom of the 6th to the top of the fifth in the process...they killed it
I think people are missing the point of what I was saying. What I was trying to say is that Coleman was not a guy they had singled out as someone they absolutely had to have above every other player on their board. Like in past years, they traded up to ensure they got the guy they really wanted. However, in this case, they actually traded down twice with teams that wanted a WR. So, if they absolutely wanted Coleman over everyone else, they would have just picked him. Instead, I think they just had him in a bucket with a bunch of other guys and if he would have been picked ahead of them, they would have been just as happy with any other player in that same bucket. I am not saying they didn't want him. I am saying they didn't prioritize him as being head and shoulders above anyone else they had in the same bucket.
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Sounds like Coleman was not a guy they really wanted or had to have. I mean, that was pretty obvious from the fact that they traded down twice and then picked him. He was in a bucket with a bunch of guys. He talked about the tiers of WRs and said there was a clear top tier, then made it sound like there was a pretty big drop off to the end of round 1 and round 2 before getting to the 2nd tier.
To me, this means even a guy like BTJ who everyone had rated fairly highly, was in this tier 2 group and not in the tier 1 group because if he was, I believe they would have done everything they could have to move up the handful of spots it would have taken to get him. So, guys like Worthy and Legette were probably all in the tier 2 bucket with Coleman and a few other guys and they just took the one that was there. Frustrating for someone like me who did have several guys above Coleman who in this scenario I would have had more as a late tier 2, top of tier 3 kind of player.
But regardless, I think they are really hoping to win by having Josh play point guard this year and just get it to the open guy no matter who it is or what position it is. It's a bold strategy that could pay off if it works, but if it doesn't, it's yet another season of not fully committing to building around Allen and just forcing him to make everyone around him better rather than getting Allen the most weapons possible to unlock even another level for Allen in his career.
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2 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:
He clearly deserves 60 million per 😈
I was thinking more like $80 million per year over the next 10 years all fully guaranteed. I mean, you have to pay a premium for the most accurate QB in the league.
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The Bills are going into this season without a true #1 WR. However, I would make the case that you could see WR2 production out of like 2 to 3 guys which is a bit different. I fully expect Kincaid to lead this team in targets and I think he will be completely up to it. I really believe he is a star in the making.
Will this approach work? I don't know. I will say that with Allen, he's always shown a willingness to just go to the open guy. So, if this is the philosophy of the whole team, and all the WRs buy into the whole being better than the sum of the parts, then it could work and could make this offense even more difficult to defend than when Diggs always had to be the first read. If you can scheme up plays, all designed to feature different players and different times out of different formations and alignments, the defense will have a tough time just trying to focus their attention in one place.
I sincerely hope this approach works. Obviously, I want us to have a successful season and win the Super Bowl, but if we show that we can win this approach, it will save us from having to pay one WR $30 million plus in the next couple years. And with star WRs salaries spiking, that number could be even bigger down the road. That said, this works only if the WRs you have are truly unselfish. Obviously everyone is looking for that big payday some day, but if you have a bunch of guys catching 55-60 balls for 800 yards and nobody gets featured, I just hope these guys are OK with not seeing the huge pay day down the road. Could be a bit tricky, but I really do hope this approach works. Otherwise, we might be heading into next year's draft with the same goal as we had with this one.....trying to find WR1.
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Maybe I am in the minority, but I am much more frustrated with other players on their team over the years like Kelce and Hill.
Sure, Mahomes is the QB and he has been pretty good at times against us, but to me, those other guys have hurt us a heck of a lot more. I would make the argument our own coaches have hurt us more than Mahomes has. Don't get me wrong, I still respect the stuff he's been able to do, but many times, at least against our defense, he's throwing to guys running wide open a lot of the time.
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A lot of people on here have been on the Justin Shorter train and think he could potentially be the next guy to come out of nowhere and contribute. Some are still on the Isabella and Shavers trains as well. I hope you are all right and they do come out of nowhere and surprise.
I said a while ago that I will be conducting the train for KJ Hamler until he gets hurt. Obviously that has been the thing holding him back since he entered the league. But, if you watch the tape of when he actually was healthy and did play, he offers things this WR room just doesn't have. But, obviously, it's on him and his body to stay healthy. I think if he can, he can definitely help us in a limited role.....10-15 snaps a game. He's a very talented dude. And you know what? I hope I am right too!
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It's not the lack of speed in the 40 that is necessarily concerning. Would you like to see it at least a tenth faster? Yes. What is concerning, though, is the tape. Speed aside, the biggest problem he had in college is that he doesn't get consistent separation. It's great that the next gen stats show that play speed isn't an issue. It is a relief in a lot of ways. But, that still doesn't change the game tape where even the receptions he does make, come with a CB all over him. So, maybe the coaches see something that they can help him with in terms of release, route running, etc. that he wasn't doing in college that will use that actual play speed to his advantage. If they do, and he works at it and becomes successful with what they are teaching, many of the other skills in a WR are there for sure. But, unless the coaching staff has an idea of how to fix his separation issues, he is going to have to find ways to win against better competition in the NFL.
My guess is that I think they believe they have a plan for how to incorporate him into this offense and put him in advantageous situations. I think the offense might look dramatically different than it has the last several years. Brady has an entire off season to implement his full offense instead of just piecing things in here and there as the weeks went by last year. I don't know......I am just searching for reasons to believe Coleman will make a major difference for us this year and it's tough when all I have to go by is his college tape and I see him struggling to get open. But, like I've said all along, even though I am critical of him in a lot of ways, the things he does well, he does EXTREMELY well. I am going to put my trust into the coaching staff to help him win with scheme here and there and play to his strengths.
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5 hours ago, Hermes said:
Just from watching the first 10 minutes of that video I saw him make more, high degree of difficulty, catches than Diggs or Davis did all of last year. Without watching the actual all-22 footage it's tough to determine how open he was on a lot of routes and then the window closes due to his qb missing the read or poor ball placement. On top of the fact that half his targets were screens or go routes. I don't think this video is as damning as you think it is.
I've seen this video. I've also see a lot of the all-22 on him as well. I just don't think either are all that flattering to his ability to get open quickly. When I watch him, it seems like my reactions are as follows: "Ewww". "Yuck". "Meh". "Ugh". "WOW"!!!!!! And this just keeps happening over and over again.
The thing with him is that there is not a lot of in between. He will be blanketed on most plays, either not get a target, get a target, but it will be incomplete, or make a crazy contested catch. But there are plenty of targets in that video and on the all-22 that leave you wanting more. There are drops. There are broken up passes. There are periods of time where he never even sees a target because he isn't open. And then there are targets where he is just bigger and stronger than his opponent and he makes great catches. What there isn't is a lot of in between and that is why you see a lot more stat lines of him catching 4-6 balls a game rather than 8+. Florida State used him on a lot of screens which honestly isn't his game. But if you watch even this video, you won't see a ton of those intermediate routes where he just creates separation. A lot of his great plays come down the field a bit where he just attacks the ball in the air. That's fine in college. You can get away with that. But in the NFL, against elite NFL CBs week in and week out, asking him to beat these guys is not going to be easy.
It will be up to the coaches to scheme up plays that will create leverage and space for him. But, if you just line him up one on one, I just have a feeling that as good as he is at contested catches, he will have to make even more of them against better CBs. That is a tough ask. Now, I will say that one area I am excited to see him in is the scramble drill situations where all of a sudden everything is out of structure and Allen can just chuck it up to him; I think he will thrive in chaos.
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1 hour ago, ganesh said:
could he be a RB who can catch the ball ?
I don't think so really. I man, you could make the argument for a guy like Christian McCaffrey being the closest thing to a RB that is a true #1 type of target, but honestly, it's not the same thing.
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A #1 WR is a lot of things, but first and foremost he is a guy that strikes fear into the opposing team. He's someone that coaches go to bed thinking about how to contain him, because he will never truly be stopped. He's an alpha on the field and competes down in and down out. Ideally, although a lead dog, he loves it when his route opens up another guy for a big play. He is someone that impacts the game in a big way even on snaps he doesn't get the ball. He's a guy that forces teams to put multiple sets of eyes on him every play and shifts coverage when he goes in motion. He's a guy that wants the ball in big moments and the brighter the lights, the better he plays. He makes big time plays at key moments. To me, that is a #1 WR. They may not always be WRs, though.....they could be TEs like Kelce that demand targets and can't be stopped in the passing game. He may not be a WR, but he is a #1 playmaker/target.
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The quick answer is NO and I have a feeling we will be entering the 2025 draft still in search for our WR1. Unless there is a trade at some point, which Beane has already says is not on the horizon for now, it's going to be tough out there at times. Kincaid will have to carry this team much like Kelce carries the Chiefs for us to be successful consistently this season..
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The problem is, if he struggled to separate in college at times, it's only going to be tougher on him in the NFL where virtually every starting DB is better than he faced in college. It's one of the reasons I didn't have him projected as a 2nd rounder. Yes, he has some great qualities and will for sure make some plays for us, but if you are expecting him to all of a sudden be a WR1, I think you will be disappointed. His lack of separation ability is why you don't see a ton of games with high volume catches. He has some great stat lines, but many games it's 5-6 catches. You will see the outliers here and there, but to those expecting him to be a 8-9 catches per game guy are going to be disappointed most weeks.
Now, I will say coaching and scheme can help him. Find ways to get him one on one matchups and use his frame to shield off defenders. Find a couple ways to scheme him open. For the love of God, put slant passes back into our playbook! There are things the coaches can do to help him. But if you are planning on just throwing him out there and tell him to win, it's going to be tough.
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1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:
There is going to be a fun battle to see who emerges. There are 3 locks max with Coleman, Shakir and Samuel.
I think from there on out it is a battel for the rest, that group consists of (At this point):
Mack Hollins
KJ Hamler
Andy Isabella
Justin Shorter
Tyrell Shavers
Bryan Thompson
Quintez Cephus
Xavier Johnson Jr (UDFA)
Lawrence Keys (UDFA)
I'll say it right now...... Until he gets hurt, KJ Hamler is my guy going into camp. His tape when healthy is excellent and with his speed and release off the line, he could be a dangerous weapon. His major issue is availability which is obviously extremely important. However, supposedly, he has spent the entire off season trying to remake his body to make him less likely to get the injuries that have plagued him to this point.
But yeah.....there is a battle at the bottom of the roster for sure. But, until he gets hurt, my guy this camp will be KJ Hamler. If he stays healthy, I truly believe he can be our WR4 or WR5.
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It was an interesting draft to say the least. It was obvious that we put a lot of focus on drafting guys that a leaders, team captains, and accountable to themselves. With losing so many veteran guys that have been leaders on this team for years this off season, it's obvious replacing these guys with younger talent that can potentially grow into these roles was extremely important.
That said, what did we come away with in terms of talent and players? I think we definitely came away with guys that will help us early and also a couple of late lottery tickets that we hope hit. While I like the class as a whole, only coming away with one WR in a very deep WR class was disappointing. But, aside from that, we got some guys that will provide much needed depth and will contribute early.
Our first 4 picks should get some playing time right away:
WR Keon Coleman - While not my favorite WR in the class, he will be relied upon early and will start from day one. He's not fast. He's not a polished route runner. But, as I have stated before, what he does well, he does extremely well. He has amazing ball skills and uses his larger frame to shield off defenders and snatches the ball with his hands. There is no other WR in the draft that has more body control than this guy and because of this, he does make up for some of his other short comings because of it. When the ball hits him in the hands, he catches it. Has one of the lowest drop rates in all of college ball so he has elite hands. When you watch him on tape, sometimes you get frustrated because it seems like most of his catches come with defenders right there with him, but then you will see him make some of the best catches you will ever see on a football field and just say "Wow". While I don't personally see him ever being a top 10 WR in this league, if he can develop into that secondary piece....a great WR2, then I think we will be very happy with the pick even though the search for WR1 will have to continue. But, in my opinion, it would be ideal to have a solid #2 to pair with your legit WR1 and I think he can become this sooner than later. He's a good kid. He works extremely hard. Has a magnetic personality that people are going to love. He's going to be a guy that is easy to root for to do well and I think he will make plays for us, especially on 3rd downs, right away. If the coaches play to his strengths, and not just force him to try to immediately separate from guys, he will have an impact for sure. He offers a skill set with his size and strength that we did not have on this team prior. I am not comparing the two because I don't think they are the same player, but if he can be consistent, I do like him better than Gabe Davis, who I thought at one point might become that dominant WR2 but never did because of too many inconsistencies.
S Cole Bishop - I see him as our future Jordan Poyer replacement. He is an elite athlete for a safety. While I am not sure he is going to come in and compete for a starting spot right away, I am not dismissing it as a possibility. He's a smart kid, can hit a little bit, and plays well as a box safety. He plays physical and downhill and is a pretty good tackler. He blitzes and shoots gaps extremely well. However, sometimes those instincts and wanting to play aggressively get him in trouble on double moves and it gets him out of position from time to time and he misses some tackles. But, the good thing with him is that he spent a couple years trying to cover Dalton Kincaid on the practice field in college and if you have seen my love for Kincaid since he was drafted here, you know I think he is going to be one of, if not the very best, TEs in this league before too long. So, once again getting reps against him every day in practice will do nothing but help Bishop develop. He will come in, compete with Rapp and play some special teams for sure. But, even if he doesn't end up starting this year, make no mistake about it, I think he will soon. He's a good player.
DT DeWayne Carter - I like this guy. I had him graded a little higher than some others that went before him. He's a 3-tech that will slide into the rotation right away behind Ed Oliver. He's a penetration player that can win quickly and rushes the passer well. He will see a lot of playing time for sure as we love to rotate our defensive lineman. He's strong and plays with great pad levels and can move a little bit. However. he is not a great run defender and does miss tackles and overruns plays from time to time. Another one of those multi-year captains and leaders that seem to have been a priority this draft.
RB Ray Davis - I didn't watch a lot of tape on RBs this year. While I knew we would take one at some point, I had a feeling it wouldn't be until the later rounds. The things I do know about him is that he's on the shorter side and not a blazer, but can run well enough. He has great vision and is fairly shifty. While small, he's a tough runner. He will get some playing time as a compliment to Cook at some point this season for sure. He might be battling to get some playing time early with Ty Johnson but he may have a role at some point this season. I think we still could use a bigger power back, but I am sure we'll take care of that down the road if they want to do it.
As for the rest of the players we drafted, I didn't study them on film so I don't have any personal opinions on them. From what I hear from those that did, it sounds like we got pretty good value on a couple of them. But let's be honest.....these guys are all pretty much like lottery tickets. I mean, you could say that about every player in the draft, but you know a lot of the guys in the first 3-4 rounds will contribute at some point during the season at least. These other guys, who knows. Some may make the roster as depth. Some may end up on the practice squad as many late round rookies tend to do. And others may not make the team at all. But in the end, I look at this as a solid, yet unspectacular draft class as of now. But the idea is to hit pretty well on 3-4 guys every year and I definitely think we will get contributions from at least that many which is exciting. We still need another WR that can play, though..... #GoBills
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If the Bills don't take Franklin here, it just proves how hard it is to trust all of these so called insiders. I've been hearing for weeks that the Bills love Franklin and if they pass on him for a third time, it's just hard to take anything you hear seriously at all.
That said.....I don't think they take him.
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5 minutes ago, julian said:
Yet all Elam did was make plays when he got his chances, the whole situation is weird
Very true. He had a couple of rough games, but that is to be expected when you don't get reps. But yeah, he may be able to play and we may never know because he's in McDermott's doghouse and can't seem to get out. This year will certainly be an important one for Elam.
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This is a solid pick. He's fast for a S, has good instincts, and can hit pretty well too. Good athlete on the back end that should grow into a very good replacement for Poyer sooner rather than later.
I mean, the thing is, I will never worry about any secondary picks we make because the one thing McDermott and his system does is maximize player's talents on the back end. Elam might be the exception here, but his skill set never fit with the system we run. Wouldn't surprise me at all if he ends up being a solid player somewhere else someday.
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As I mentioned earlier, he's slow and doesn't separate. Two traits you just love to see in a WR. But, hey, welcome to Buffalo.
Not thrilled at all here. Not saying he can't be good, but when your claim to fame is winning jump balls, it's hard to get excited.
I will say that it's not all bad. He has elite body control. He's a big guy that is physical and can get off press. While he is not a good route runner, and he is slow for a WR, he uses his big frame well using his body to shield off defenders and high point the ball. Elite hands and catches the ball well.That said, I had several WRs rated ahead of him, some of whom are still on the board. But hey......it's their guy and I expect him to make some great plays for us here and there. I just don't feel he is a dominant player that teams will fear playing at least right away.
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Ugh...... He's slow and doesn't separate. Two traits you just love to see in a WR. But hey, welcome to Buffalo.
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Ugh...... He's slow and doesn't separate. Two traits you just love to see in a WR. But hey, welcome to Buffalo.
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Ugh...... He's slow and doesn't separate. Two traits you just love to see in a WR. But hey, welcome to Buffalo.
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Going into this draft, I had the top 3 WRs going in the top 10 and I had 2 other WRs, BTJ and Legette rated as first rounders. Then, I had a bunch of WRs all rated about the same as 2nd rounders. Coleman was not one of these guys.......
I don't even have him rated as a 3rd rounder. If we went through all we did last night and end up with Coleman at 33, this would be super disappointing. There was one WR in this draft that I didn't want to touch at all unless it got into later in Day 3 and that was Coleman. Ugh.... I've given Beane the benefit of the doubt more often than not, but if he comes out of this with Coleman as his top pick, I'm sorry......I will hate it. He'd make a much better TE than WR. He just can't separate as a WR. And, if you can't separate in college, you aren't getting open in the NFL. I could give two craps about 50/50 catches. All that shows me is that you can't separate.
I'm not saying he can't turn into a great player someday down the road. Who knows. But he won't help us win a Super Bowl this year or probably over the next couple years either. He's not a player you go into a game fearing or having to game plan for. At best, he is a slower Gabe Davis. At worst, he's Kelvin Benjamin and will be out of the league in a few years. He's not someone I want to hitch my wagon to at all.
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Do I like what he did? No.
Do I understand and respect what he did? Yes.
Here's the thing. Would I have done the same thing? Absolutely not. The board fell so perfectly for the scenario I was looking for. While I don't think the opportunity presented itself to get into the top 10 for Odunze, the other options I was hoping for were there. There were multiple chances to get BTJ. We could have easily traded up, even just a few spots to get him. They chose not to do this and I think that tells you all you need to know about how they had him graded. My ideal option was right there for the taking, even after the first trade down, in Legette. My idea was to take him, as I see him as a future WR1, and then trade up in the 2nd to get another WR I had graded in the 2nd. But sure enough, they traded away from him as well. So, as I said above, that tells you all you need to know about how they had this WR class graded. They only had 3 first round grades on WRs and everyone else was a 2nd rounder in their book.
So yeah.....if that's the case and they didn't have first round grades on more than 3 WRs, then I understand and respect what he did. Who knows.....maybe he even has something cooking behind the scenes with a trade for an established WR1. Who knows. I just hope whatever he decides to do here that he turns out to be right on all of it. Because if he's wrong, the backlash he gets will be well deserved. But we might not know the answer to that for a couple of years. But the spotlight is now shining on him brightly tonight. He's committed to a path and he needs to follow through and finish what he started.
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OTAs 5/21
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by sven233
Even though they are just OTAs, it's nice to have some football to see and talk about again. I just wish the media could get new content every day! They only have 1 practice a week to get content, but I need my football fix! I just wish we had more coverage every day as to what is happening in these sessions, specifically the team sessions, like we can get from training camp. Yes, I know.....that may seem crazy and obsessive to some, but I just love this stuff so much.