[Next two games are against teams off their bye]

Bottom line - if this team is what they (and we) think they are, they can compete with and defeat anyone. If they need a favorable schedule to post a good records, that is only masking the problem. I still say 8-8 this year to show the rebuild is moving in the right direction and then another 2 game improvement next year puts us where we want to be. A reasonable expectation I believe.

[The Dolphins are not better than the Bills]

Here's my litmus test. If the Bills beat Miami this week, does that mean they "stole" a game against a better team? Or does it begin to reshape the conventional wisdom as to which team is better right now?

 

I will accept that it is too early to tell which team is better, which is why my premise is I don't believe the Dolphins are better. Perhaps they can prove that with a convincing win on Sunday. Apparently they are favored by a TD or more. I just don't buy it yet.

[The Dolphins are not better than the Bills]

The Dolphins beat CLE, IND and ATL. They lost to BAL and got blown out by NO. That's one win against a good team and one loss to a team the Bills beat.

 

I've read a lot this week about how good the Dolphins' defense is. The reality is they're giving up 23 points a game. If the Bills defense can do ANYthing this week, I like their chances to score enough points to win.

 

Does anyone else feel the Dolphins are a bit overrated so far this season?

[The 2nd wild card spot in the AFC]

Jags, Bucs, Steelers, Falcons...those teams combined have 2 wins.

 

Dolphins and Jets are not that good. We can beat them at home.

 

That gets you to 8 wins there. Then you take advantage of Pats resting players in week 17 and you have 9-7. It might not be likely, but it's not implausible.

[The 2nd wild card spot in the AFC]

The Dolphins currently hold the 2nd wild card spot in the AFC at 3-2. With the easy back end of the schedule for the Bills, they could be in position to go 9-7 and compete for that spot. Maybe the Pats running away with the division is best so given their week 17 match up vs. Bills.

 

I know this is wishful thinking, but I am trying to give myself something to look forward to after this soul crushing day.

[how about some quick slants?]

Watching the Bears on Thursday night, they called a lot of quick slants that they executed well. Seems like the Bills' offense would be well suited to that type of play call, but you never see it. Being a fast-paced offense should be about more than just no huddle. How about some speed AFTER the snap? Hackett is going to need to be more diverse and creative for the Bills to get it done today and in the coming weeks while E.J. is out. E.J. could also likely benefit from faster plays after the snap as well.

[My gameday prognostications...]

I find it interesting how most "experts" pick the Bengals to win convincingly with 20+ or in many cases 30+ points. This is a team that scored 20 points COMBINED in the last two weeks. With Byrd and maybe Gilmore back, the Bills defense is better than the Pats and as good as the Browns, who shut down CIN's offense the last two weeks. Plus, they are in Buffalo where the Bengals have not beaten the Bills since the 1980's.

 

I get it that Thad Lewis is a big question mark and that the Bills might struggle to score, but this team is built around defense and the run. If Lewis can avoid too many mistakes, I give him as much a chance in this game as I would if E.J. were playing (and as you can tell by my name, I am an E.J. fan). The Bengals are a good team, but they are winless on the road and are definitely a beatable team. I see turnovers/special teams being the difference, with the advantage in both of those battles going to the home team.

 

Plus, Bills have to want it more. Tough part of the schedule coming up with a chance to be 3-3 and only one game out in the division (if the Pats lose). This is a big game for this team and I expect them to play hard and well.

 

Bills win 18-14.

[How I became a Bills fan]

I was born in New York City into a baseball household. Yankees all day. By the time I moved to Albany for college, baseball was my only sport. I would watch the Super Bowl, sure, but I didn't feel like I had a team I identified with in the NFL. I was the very definition of a "casual fan." While at college, I met my future wife who was from Rochester. The first Bills game I watched was the weekend we made our way out to Rochester for me to meet her parents.

 

My girlfriend's father and I bonded over the Bills. Of course, I didn't have much to contribute to the conversation at first so I just listened to him talk about his team. The detail with which he understood its strengths and weaknesses. The complexities of the game. I related to the passion he had for the Bills because it mirrored the passion I had for the Yankees. I thought it was great that the Bills were the only upstate New York team from any of the 3 major sports, because at that point my home was in Albany and I knew I was never going back to NYC.

 

The Bills lost that Sunday, but I loved watching my first game. Back in Albany, I began to follow the team in the newspaper (almost never televised here), and it was an odd realization that they were not a good team. After all, I was used to my team being a winning franchise. In the years that followed, my love of the NFL grew to the same level as my love for the MLB. I found it a very humbling and grounding experience that, after the Yankees' success in the baseball season, the Bills would struggle. I also never knew was it was like to root for the little guy after being born into a Yankee family, and I found it fulfilling in an odd way. The depth of sadness with each Bills' loss and each lost season was something I never experienced with the Yankees, always knowing how lucky I was to be a fan of such a successful franchise.

 

I have tried to explain this dichotomy to my kids. Young kids, of course, just want to root for winning teams. My 2nd grader has friends who are Yankees fans, Miami Heat fans and Patriots fans. It's hard for him to watch the Bills go 6-12 year after year, but I have explained to him that devotion to your team means you love them whether they win or lose. And it makes the winning so much sweeter if you stick by your team when they lose instead of just switching to the next good team. We are a Yankees household. And we are a Bills household. My son wears his Bills shirt proudly each Sunday and gets his face painted with a Bills logo at the craft fair. There are not a lot of Bills fans in this area. The stores are filled with Giants and Jets merchandise only. We find each other by bumper stickers that we display proudly, and come together in the sports bars on Sunday afternoons.

 

And many years later my father-in-law and I still bond over the Bills. Except now it's me who drives the conversation. "It figures we finally get help in the secondary and our quarterback goes down." "When are we going to catch a break?" "If Pryor and Hoyer can come out of nowhere, why can't Thad Lewis?" "I have a gut feeling we are going to win this game." "This is the year we shock the world." "GO BILLS."

[8-8]

After the draft, I was hoping for an 8-8 season. A 2 game improvement over last year. A clear sign that this team was moving in the right direction, with a developing QB who could hopefully turn an 8-8 rookie season into 9-5 or 10-6 in year two.

 

So far, despite all the injuries and disappointments, there have been several reasons for optimism, and an 8-8 season is not at all out of the question. Even with a new QB for the next several weeks, it doesn't change my season outlook much (assuming they can get some type of upgrade over an undrafted rookie). This team was built around defense and the run from day one. Any QB who can avoid turnovers and air it out on occasion should be able to keep this team in games. Especially with the (hopeful) return of Byrd and Gilmore, this will be one of the best defenses in the NFL. With 10 days for Freddie and CJ to get healthy, this will continue to be one of the best running teams in the NFL. Very few teams are elite in all facets of the game. I believe this team will be competive in most, if not all, games, and have a legitimate shot at an 8-8 season, despite the EJ injury, if they can bring in someone, anyone, who is a servicable replacement.

 

That's all anyone could reasonably expect for this season, right? 8-8? An upward trajectory? A rational reason to believe this team has forward momentum for a playoff push next year or the year after? Nothing that has happened so far this season has dashed those hopes or made me think "same old BIlls."

[Let me explain how the NFL works]

Those who want to completely give up on this QB and coaching staff because of last Sunday are being way too reactionary. There are a handful of elite teams, a handful of horrible teams, and the vast majority of teams are somewhere in the middle. The question for those middle teams is which direction they are heading in.

 

With a rookie QB, no one thought the Bills would be elite from day 1, did they? What if the Giants gave up on Eli after he threw a bazillion interceptions in his rookie year? Then they would have two fewer championships today.

 

Look where the Bills are, only three games in to a completely new system, with one of the youngest teams in the league. They have been competitive in every game. That is the type of foundation that can be built upon. As the young team finds their rhythm, they will be more consistent and make fewer mistakes.

 

The team is much better than it's been, and if you can't see that, you haven't been paying attention. Manuel can and will improve. Give him a chance! He is a smart, talented, committed kid who has done nothing to make you doubt him. All rookies have up and down games. Even Luck and Cam put up some clunkers. Its part of the development process.

 

This is a very young team with a lot of play makers and future stars which will continue to play close competitive games, and which I expect to see continued improvement from.

 

Anyone who bails now is going to miss a fun ride.

[Let me explain how the NFL works]

Those who want to completely give up on this QB and coaching staff because of last Sunday are being way too reactionary. There are a handful of elite teams, a handful of horrible teams, and the vast majority of teams are somewhere in the middle. The question for those middle teams is which direction they are heading in.

 

With a rookie QB, no one thought the Bills would be elite from day 1, did they? What if the Giants gave up on Eli after he threw a bazillion interceptions in his rookie year? Then they would have two fewer championships today.

 

Look where the Bills are, only three games in to a completely new system, with one of the youngest teams in the league. They have been competitive in every game. That is the type of foundation that can be built upon. As the young team finds their rhythm, they will be more consistent and make fewer mistakes.

 

The team is much better than it's been, and if you can't see that, you haven't been paying attention. Manuel can and will improve. Give him a chance! He is a smart, talented, committed kid who has done nothing to make you doubt him. All rookies have up and down games. Even Luck and Cam put up some clunkers. Its part of the development process.

 

This is a very young team with a lot of play makers and future stars which will continue to play close competitive games, and which I expect to see continued improvement from.

 

Anyone who bails now is going to miss a fun ride.