Forward Progress
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Posts posted by Forward Progress
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I shouldn't, but I like it when the national media and fans of other teams think that we are trash. It's that much sweeter when we win.
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I always use Bills Mafia, since I am the one and only Bills fan in my pools. No need for me to find a new name as the roster changes.
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4 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:
Only if you have a conservative Head Coach.
Patriots don't ever take their foot off the throats of their opponents.
The Ravens didn't to Miami last week.
I think the Chiefs and Rams are teams that wouldn't, either.
Hope we don't when we get big leads against any team, whether it's this weekendor another weekend.
I still want our team to move the ball on offence and not give the ball back to our opponent. We’ve had a long history of run-run-run-punt playcalling with 4th quarter leads.
The dream scenario for me is where your opponent knows that we will run the ball, we run the ball and get first downs anyway.
I’m not convinced that we have a run game that can impose its will against a stacked box, so a balanced offence still makes the sense for our team playing with lead.
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This is another great article from the Athletic. I had just finished reading before I saw this post.
There are so many contributions that don't show up on the stat sheet, especially the hard-working guys in the trenches.
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1 hour ago, Sunshower said:
Theoretically this could be the game Allen goes off. 350yds should not be out of the question.
Honestly, I'm hoping for a 200 yard game because we got an early lead and we ran the ball so well. Big passing stats are fun and it would nice to quiet the "Allen can't throw a football" crowd, but the biggest passing games happen when we are playing from behind.
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1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:
I was a goalie in hockey in my younger days and did the same drill. Reflexes can never be too fast.
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1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
Good post.
As someone who made use of statistics professionally for a couple decades, one of the things that is often missed is to look at the boundary conditions and determine whether or not they apply to a specific instance. For example, applied to a player a big college program where the entire team is good, using a data set derived from the big college programs from which most NFL players get drafted: that's within the boundry conditions of the dataset, so the data is applicable and if the model suggests low probability of success, that may be true. But if you have a player who attracts attention from a smaller program where the entire team is not so good - the data may not be applicable and the model may not apply.
I look at it in a simpler way: Nix made the comment about Russ Wilson before the draft, that QB with his size attributes typically don't succeed in the NFL, but that one attribute that can't be measured is a player's heart. I think that applies to Josh Allen.I completely agree. When determining the future success of an NFL QB, there are so many intangibles that do not appear on a stat sheet.
I really appreciate how much effort Beane’s team puts into player evaluations that go well beyond the analytics guys. Josh is a leader of men, with a large capacity to learn and an unbreakable competitive spirit. These traits will help Josh become the QB he that he will be one day. His floor is already much higher than we anticipated and the ceiling is very high.
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The analytics camp is most interested in proving that their method of statistical evaluation is correct. That is the product that they sell to the market, so it is vital to the viability of their business that they consistently prove their model to be right.
When you enter Josh's college stats into their model, it shows that it is statistically likely that a QB with Josh's stats will not have success at the NFL level. Any commentary, regarding Josh's performance from the analytics community is biased, because they need to continue to promote their products and prove their model to be accurate. In order to support their position, they will highlight every negative stat that they can from Josh's game (i.e. focus on the four turnovers and fully attribute them to Josh).
However, we have to admit that, as Bills' fans, we are also biased and desperately want to see the positives in our QB. We will focus on the three scoring drives to win the game with our backs against the wall. The truth is somewhere in between to two extreme views, but I'm happier on the positive side, so I will stay there.
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When we're facing elite running backs, like Bell and Barkley in the first two weeks, the defensive ends may prioritize setting the edge for the run game over getting to the QB. When they do this well they have a big influence on the success of the defense without showing up on the stat sheet.
I guess what I'm saying is that it's hard to know who performed better without understanding their assignment for this game. Like you, I did notice Shaq making plays more than Murphy this week - I'm just not sure if that means he performed better or not.
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Greg Williams likes to keep one safety deep, so I don’t expect the 75-yard TD pass this week. That high safety leaves us 11 vs. 10 on short to intermediate routes and benefits our run game. I expect a heavy dose of Beasley in the slot and Singletary/Gore to run effectively against an unstacked box.
My 2 cents.
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1 hour ago, buffalostu2 said:
If that was the case why didn't he just wait until Bodine was cut? He did not need to trade a draft pick for that info.
Oh, thinking with logic, huh? Next, you're gonna tell me the Flat Earthers are all wrong. I'm taking my tin foil hat and going home before you contradict any more of my deep-routed beliefs.
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4 hours ago, Beane/Allen said:
Tyrod Taylor won football games for this franchise.
He did it with his feet, his smarts and his leadership.
We now have a taller version...
... who is willing to throw the ball to make first downs in an effort to score points and win the game, instead of boosting his QBR with 3-yard completions on 3rd and 8.
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I used to feel that we were getting screwed more than other teams because we are a small market team. I don't believe that any more.
If I'm being objective, I feel that we haven't had as many bad calls against us in the last two years as we did before. I think that well disciplined teams get the benefit of the doubt more than undisciplined teams.
Here is an example of one against Jerry Hughes in 2014 who had a bad reputation for collecting unsportsmanlike 15-yard penalties:
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2014/10/16/6985297/jerry-hughes-penalty-bills-patriots-2014
Hughes is tapping a teammate on the head after a great defensive stand and the referee assumes that Hughes is tapping the head of the opponent. It was a terrible call, but I think this was a case of confirmation bias, where the referee saw what he expected to see because of Jerry Hughes' reputation at the time.
Under McDermott, I see more discipline from our players on the field and (without any data to support my opinion) I feel that we are getting screwed by bad calls less frequently.
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2 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:
This board completely overrates Beane. Davis and Boldin both quit. There have been some nice moves but man, people really do treat this guy like a God. It was a stupid idea to try and bring this guy here and Buffalo got laughed at because of it.
I am among those on this board who rates Beane pretty high (not a God, but I'm glad he's our GM).
I'm not high on Beane because he is successful with every move he makes (he's had some misses along the way). I'm high on Beane because he takes a lot of shots and cuts his losses quickly when his acquisitions don't work out, while holding on to the players who make our team better.
My glass-half-full-perspective on Beane's interest in AB is that he is thorough and considers any and every opportunity to make this team better. From the outside looking in, it feels like Beane got lucky with AB going to Oakland, but I don't want him to stop pursuing players who can make our team better just because some of them don't work out.
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Just now, The Wiz said:
That's the real reason shady was cut.
Honestly, Shady got off lightly for that offense.
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In my newly renovated man cave, complete with the beer fridge, big screen and surround sound.
I worked a few late nights to make sure this was ready for week 1.
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52 minutes ago, The Wiz said:
Hell we got better odds than the avengers and they pulled it off!
Spoiler Alert!!!
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There is a small pocket of Josh Allen / Bills fans in Wyoming now.
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16 hours ago, stosh64 said:
I can't wait until Josh shuts up all these ANALysts.
Burleson: Le'Veon Bell will score 3 TDs in Week 1 vs. Bills
I don't see Bell scoring, I expect the rust to show.What happened to GMFB weekly love? This is starting to feel like an abusive relationship.
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4 hours ago, CodeMonkey said:
Yeah I can see where you are coming from. I just didn't see anything in preseason that leads me to declare the O-Line is markedly better. That, IMO. will decide this season for the Bills one way or the other. Well that and Allen taking a nice big step up
I can’t argue with that. The two biggest improvements that we are counting on are Josh’s progression and a better o-line for both pass protection and the run game.
There is reason to expect all of these improvements - can’t wait to see it on the field.
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57 minutes ago, CodeMonkey said:
Taking off the red and blue blinders ... How have the Bills improved? Allen in 2nd year like Darnold. Replaced one aging RB for another. OLine *may* be better but who knows (certainly not a lock), Picked up Beasley in the slot, otherwise receiving is probably a wash, D is about the same (hard to go up much from last year). They probably are looking at this season. Their assessment is just different than yours. And quite frankly, everyone is guessing at this point.
While I agree that the progression of Allen and Darnold is a wash, I'm clearly more optimistic than you right now. 4 of the 5 O-line positions have been upgraded from back-ups (or less) to capable NFL starters. Our #1 and #2 receiver from last year have been pushed down to our #3 and #4 receiver with Brown and Beasley expected to get the most targets. The D is largely the same, but I think that Edmunds progression will improve our run defense that hurt us in a couple of games last year.
I can't argue on the guessing point as preseason observations aren't the most reliable. I am of the opinion that there isn't an area of our team that is weaker than a year ago, while making upgrades to our o-line, receivers and depth at many positions.
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I had become a pretty complacent fan over the years. I watched every game, but I didn't really care about wins and losses. I was simply looking for signs of improvement... just signs of hope that a better tomorrow would come. Sure, we were "in the hunt" in early December, but that just meant we weren't mathematically eliminated.
This year feels different for me. I believe the better tomorrow is almost here and I am genuinely hoping for playoffs this year. I believe we are good enough to make the playoffs, but I don't believe there is enough room for both the Jets and the Bills in the playoffs this year. I also believe that we are not yet good enough to make the playoffs if we lose any games that we should win.
Sundays have been a nice relaxing time for me for many years, where wins felt nice and the losses didn't really hurt. I have felt the excitement for this week-one match-up building for some time. I think the two games with the Jets are the two most important games on our schedule - they just happen to be the first and last game of the season.
It's exciting to watch meaningful football again. Sports are more fun when we are fully invested, hanging on every third down in every game. I haven't had this feeling for almost twenty years and I'm loving it. Sure, the losses will hurt more than they have, but the wins will feel great.
Every game on our schedule is very important (the joy of the 16-game season), but week 1 against the other improving team in our division with another good young QB is a really big game and I can't wait for kick-off.
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When you consider the trades of Teller and Bodine for picks and Shady getting signed by KC, we had 59 players on our team this offseason who are on NFL rosters today.
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This game is huge for a week one matchup:
- Division Rivals
- Each team is better that last year
- Sophomore QB’s that appear stronger than last year
- Significant playoff implications
This is really a must-win game for each team. When I’ve lurked on the Jets’ board, almost every poster checks this as a win for their team. On our board, almost every poster checks this as a win for our team. One team’s board will melt down on Sunday night. It won’t be ours.
Bills 24
Jets 20
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Thursday Night Football Tampa at Car, NFL Network
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I wish I could watch football every day, but these Thursday games with just four days to recover aren’t worth it.
Thursday games after a bye would be great, otherwise, they aren’t worth it for me.