prissythecat
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Posts posted by prissythecat
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We have different ideas on the error evaulation, but this is the best objection yet, and certainly reasonable. Decisions can't be made in a vacuum, absolutely correct, and the ideal gameday staff would include someone who had a solid grasp of the probabilities AND the desirable intangible qualities. Someone in the box to radio-down the hard data, the numbers, and someone on the field to use that information to make the call. I'm just not certain that we see a lot of evidence that the data is being used in a lot of gameday decisions.
It's the posts like ... "it puts us up by 2 TDS! not just a TD and a FG" that, respectfully, just miss the point. I really hope that wasn't the depth of the sideline analysis, or that Dick really said "3 points is 3 points" or whatnot. I can just imagine Belichick & Co. watching that, giggling.
The statistical comparisons of outcomes is interesting to an academic or someone who has taken enough statistics/probability to understand the analysis. But are there actually NFL teams out there that employ PhDs on their staff to run through the numbers to help coaches come up with game decisions? Moreover, stats tell us what can be expected to happen on average. It becomes very difficult to generalize at the extremes. For instance, a 4th and 1 on the 50 yard line during the 2nd Qtr with half the field left is not at all comparable to a 4th and 1 near the goal line with 2 minutes left in the game.
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Passer rating is built heavily on the most useless stat for a QB: completion percentage. Neither statistic provides a good way to judge a QB.
how is completion percentage not a valid statistic for judging qb performance?
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The chances that something can go wrong on a 4th and short are higher than for a chip shot FG that puts you up by 13. Easy coaching decision.
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Who cares? He's not here anymore...move on.
There is still lots of man love for Peters on this board.
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He is getting a two year sentence. I would be shocked if he has to serve the entire thing, especially in NY. I bet ends up serving half and getting probabtion, as long as he is a model prisoner.
hmm. but with mandatory sentencing, isn't the parole board's discretion limited? i believe you have to stay in jail for practically the whole term.
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Probably serve 1 year or less and probabtion.
the mandatory minimum if he did not plead was actually 3.5 years. by pleading , plaxico got his jail time down to 20 months. so where did you get this 1 year or less figure?
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I agree. He is going to be just fine. The haters have been wanting to run him out of town ever since he got drafted.
yes. roscoe sure looks good against the second team defense of chicago.
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Not exactly, Burress' case will still be pending, and innocent until proven guilty. Lynch was convicted before he was punished.
"Innocent until proven guilty" is a legal concept. The facts are that Plax had an illegal gun that went off and could have hurt somone other than him. Goodell CAN act on the facts...
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Roscoe is less like Chrebet and Welker, and more like Teddy Ginn.
However even Sparano has been able to integrate Ginn into the offense pretty well; anyone remember us getting gouged for big yardage last year?! I agree with the poster a few pages back who stated that no receiver stands a chance playing for DJ..
hmmm. ted ginn only toasted us because the bills coaching staff chose to keep a gimpy mcgee in the game against him. ginn did not do much else the rest of the season as i recall.
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I think Losman made the right decision. Instead of holding a clipboard on an NFL sideline all year, he took the road less traveled and opted for immediate playing time to prove that he can be an effective pro quarterback. In the NFL, he would just toil in obscurity as a second or third string QB, whereas now he is the marquee player in a brand new league. Under the tutelage of a seasoned offensive minded coach in Fassel, in a league that has a dearth of quality talent, JP could really shine. If he lights it up in the UFL, a team with a need at quarterback or an injury to their starter may be obliged to sign him.
Did it hurt Kurt Warner or Jake Delhomme to star in the Arena League? Losman is still young enough to turn his career around. I like this move on his part.
Did you forget that Fassel failed miserably in his quest to get another NFL job? He is 0-6 in head coach intereviews in recent times? And he had also failed to get the Bills job interviewing against DJ who lots of people on this board view as anathema?
So thinking that JP should shine under Fassel maybe a stretch. If other NFL teams were not willing to give the guy another coaching position, it might be because the guy is just not that good.
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If you go back and look at Losman stats his first three years, he showed improvement each year and the last two years he got worst. Even in the win colume. Went from 5 wins in 2005 to 7 wins in 2006 and thats with a tougher schedule. How many wins did we have the last two years with easier schedules. When was the last year Sam Wyche was here?
Whether or not JP showed improvement is totally irrelevant. The point of my post was to refute the notion that head coaches hold the hands of QBs. Thats not their job.
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A good test of DJs coaching will be seeing how JP progresses in Vegas with Jim Fassel coaching him. If he does well, and gets back to the NFL and has even a moderately successful career from here, that will say plenty about DJs coaching ability or lack thereof.
IF he still sucks, then, I guess he just sucks and maybe DJ just had the bad luck to be saddled with an unable 1st round QB for several years. And a weak armed injury-prone 3rd round QB thereafter.
Somehow, call me crazy, I think JP will step up and be back in the league 2010 and do well. Fassel will coach him up and he will respond.
I certainly wish that for him he is a good person and still supports Buffalo by living downtown to this day.
Hopefully TE will be able to do well this year for us (despite DJ) too.
Does a head coach really spend a lot of time working with a QB? Sam Wyche spent quite a bit of time working with JP as I recall when he was still our quarterbacks coach. And Sam Wyche was not a slouch as a coach...
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Remember also that he lied to Goodell and Blank about having any involvement when initially asked.
An important point that many people forget. Says a lot about Vick's character.
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Nice analysis, and I'm not disagreeing with your conclusions - you can't compare JP to Brett - but I think that your 11+ yard stats are for 2008 only.....and I'm not sure where you could get this data easily, but looking at all pass completions of 20+ yards, under all situations (not just when needing 11+ yds) might be more appropriate (?) and would be interesting to see.
Thanks. Yes. It looks like the situational stat page where I got the long yardage attempt data defaults to the 2008 season. I haven't been able to find any stat source where good bomb figures are provided so had to resort to using long passing downs as a proxy for situations where the qb would resort to throwing the big one.
At any rate , I think its time to move on on the JP topic like some folks have mentioned. He may indeed still be able to get a second chance (and maybe make something of himself). After all, he is still young and his physical abilities should still be at their peak.
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Look at the stats retard or are u saying brett farve sucked
What an enlightened reply. You are comparing JP Losman to Brett Favre? Brett's career was not marked by his ability to land a few bombs and then suck at everything else.
And where are these stats you quote? If you want to debate intellectually. post some facts, don't spew inanities like a caveman.
Here is a summary of some key numbers based on Yahoo sports:
Brett Favre
Seasons: 18
Games: 273
Career QB rating: 85.4
Completion Pct : 61.4
YPG: 238.6
Y/A: 7.0
TD: 464
Int: 310
Fumbles Lost: 56
For situations requiring passes of 11+ yards
Att: 42
Comp: 62
Yards: 473
Completion Pct: 67.7
Y/A: 7.63
JP Losman
Seasons: 5
Games: 42
Career QB rating: 75.6
Completion Pct: 59.3
YPG: 147.9
Y/A: 6.6
TD: 33
Int: 34
Fumbles Lost: 17
For situations requiring passes of 11+ yards
Att: 11
Comp: 19
Completon Pct: 57.9
Y/A: 9.10
So I will give you that in long pass situations (11+yards) JP does get a higher Y/A. But then again JP completes a significantly lower percentage of his passes compared to Brett on such attempts (57% compared to 68%). Also look at things like TD to Int ratio as well as fumbles lost / game. Brett threw 1.5 TDs for every interception while JP threw 0.97. Thats a huge disparity. On fumbles lost / game, Brett has a ratio of .20 while JP has a ratio of .40? Another large gap. These are the prime reasons why JP is considered a lousy QB by a lot of folks.
In summary, JP looks really bad in the major categories compared to Brett. And Brett' stats include seasons where he was already past his prime.
So in the end, I don't see how JP Losman compares to Brett. And it seems that you lose your argument about periodic bomb landings as Brett had pretty high completion rates overall --even when looking just at the long pass attempts.
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In 05 JP was YOYOed in & out of the line up. In 06 he started & unlike Trent, played better at the end of the year. In 07 the offense was changed to suit Trent's strengths which are totally different than JP's & after being injured after 2 losses Trent was made the man. I would NOT call that being given every opportunity.
Hmm. What are Trent's strengths?
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Are you crazy Rob Johnson needed a wall for an offensive line all JP needs is to be in an non-conservative offense if he was our QB this year he would be top 5 in the NFL. If he lands somewhere that he can compete for a starting job in a high powered offence you will see but because of the Bills he may not get that chance. You need to look at his numbers for passes greater than 20 yards. Maybe someday you will know what your talking about and you people will actually make sense. I can't stand reading all the garbage on these pages. Once in a while I see someone that might know what they are talking about but most of you sound like 12 year olds trying to talk football.
If all it took to be a top QB in the NFL was the ability to land a bomb every once in a while and do nothing else well (like reading defenses), then maybe JP would succeed.
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If I had to choose between Jackson and Lynch, it'd be Jackson. Both are great players.
I disagree. Jackson cannot carry the Bills. He is at his best coming in to spell the primary running back because he provides a good change of pace. But he is not someone that the team can rely on to consistently pound the ball. There is a reason why the coaches use Lynch as the main ball carrier.
A pretty decent summary from www2.sportsnet.ca on Jackson is as follows:
Scouting Report
Assets
Very fast. Surprises defenders in the open field with his sudden burst. Great hands and receiving skills. Runs with determination and will break some tackles.
Flaws
An old prospect who spent time knocking around indoor leagues and Europe. Runs upright and will take too many hits. More of a change-up runner than a guy who can handle 20 carries from the I-formation.
Career potential
Excellent role player.
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It all starts at the top and it makes it easy to understand why the last time we had a good Superbowl run Bill Polian was GM.
Plus the last time the team was successful over an extended period of time Marv Levy was head coach.
Marv Levy was coaching the talent base that was mainly established by Bill Polian... Marv was merely a competent coach.
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So if Quinn is so good, then why is Cleveland being mentioned as one of the suitors for Cutler in the various sports updates about Denver's trade possibilities?
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First year, he probably plays for small amount with incentives. If he is successful, he will make top money. The guy has incredible talent.
Vick has some talent as a runner. He is at best a middling passer (career QB rating of 76
).Runners who can pass probably are not the best choice for most NFL teams for the QB position.
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Just because a couple of IDIOT Coaches benched him in favor of Holcomb & Edwards does not mean he was outplayed by them.
JP was benched because people who should be experienced at evaluating player talent and performance saw that he just wasn't progressing. He has been in the league since 2003 and still has poor command of his position in terms of ability to read defenses and in ability to lead. He still looks hopelessly lost in the pocket even now.
There is a reason why JP has not been approached yet by anyone for a roster spot. I remember comments from sportswriters last season after JP acquitted himself so well subbing in that went something like: "The best thing JP can do to further his chance in free agency is sit on the bench."
JP may have great athletic ability. But you need more than that to play in the NFL. Being able to land 1 out of 5 bombs (an exaggeration for illustration purposes of course) to Lee Evans is a poor indicator of success. The road is littered with failed QBs who have tremendous athletic talent but have no head for the game. And it looks like JP unfortunately needs to be added to that list.
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Of course but all things being equal the person who is stronger will throw the ball harder...all things being equal. You've played sports and worked out haven't you?
Yup. I definitely agree with you. Key point here is "all things being equal".
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Arm strength probably has relatively little to do with how fast you can through the football. Its more about technique (e.g., how well you use the other parts of your body in conjunction with your arms and how well you time your motions). There are stick figure QBs who throw the ball like it came out of a rocket launcher and QBs with awesome physiques who throw more like grandma....
JP
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Hmmm. JP was intelligent and had good accuracy? Not many people would agree about his intelligence--football or otherwise. I think he scored an awesome 14 on his Wonderlick before retaking later on? Remember that an average person would score around a 21.
50= highest possible score, superior intelligence
21= average intelligence
14= equivalent to unskilled worker
Below 14= moron
Also, JP's career completion percentage is only 59.3% and his TD to INT ratio is below 1.0 as per NFL.com. Those are hardly the numbers of an accurate QB.