Thurman#1
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Posts posted by Thurman#1
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8 hours ago, Southern_Bills said:
I agree, but somehow we have a huge hole in defense with 5 straight years of first round picks...🙄
MLB won't fix itself. I still hope for a OL player but value doesn't look great so IDK.
We don't have a huge hole in the defense except for one ... where we let one of those first round picks leave because he was so good he priced himself out of our salary cap range.
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18 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:
Yeah i get that, but some of us were talking about going edge since the combine…now all of a sudden the switch? Very convenient.It isn't a switch. I say that as a regular listener. Cover1 has been talking about DE and DT as legitimate possibilities since January.
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18 hours ago, PrimeTime101 said:
So I slammed them hard in live chat about going Edge in round 1 and ignoring ILB in early rounds. But... Listening to them talk about going Edge in round 1. They do make sense though I still disagree. I am hoping I am right about going Edge round 1 is a horrible decision but maybe someone here can prove me wrong?
here is the link.
It's neither right nor wrong till you know who they think will be available and who they would draft.
Edge is a need. If there's a really good one there, it would be worth it. I'm not convinced a really good one will be there, but it's all about BPA at positions of need. Edge is a position of need.
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17 hours ago, Tipster19 said:
The more I think about it this makes the most sense. Imo the pressure is on Beane to make this draft work and fortifying Josh would be the best bet, whether it be a stud RB, a top tier WR or a OL to help solidify the trenches. To me it’s really between a stud RB or a mainstay OL because to hear Beane a top WR isn’t as important as one would think.
Not having an abundance of draft picks this year I expect Beane to tap into the the 2024 draft resource to make this happen, either using a day 2 or 3 pick to move up in this year’s draft. Why not use a future draft pick when the heat is on now for a successful draft. If Beane comes up short this year he may not have to worry about next year’s draft.
I understand fans wanting this.
IMO the likelihood of Beane doing it in a year when he already has less than seven picks is less than 10%. He'd have to get a great deal.
"Why not use a future draft pick when the heat is on now for a successful pick," you ask?
Jeez, where do I start?
First, because the heat is on every year for a successful draft, and you're screwing yourself next year, which is a draft that looks like it will provide a lot more good players than this year's class.
Second, because trading up and giving up significant resources in the trade is a proven losing strategy. Moving up a spot or two and giving up late-rounders much less so, but giving up big resources (except when chasing a franchise QB) has proven very consistently to be a poor strategy. Once you get to trading away 3rds or even 4ths, you're hurting yourself far more often than helping.
Massey-Thaler and many many other studies make this very clear.
Oh, and Beane's NOT on the hot seat outside your imagination. He's just not.
20 minutes ago, chongli said:Wait...so you have Buffalo moving up 16 spots in the first, from 27 to 11, and also 18 spots in the second from 59 to 41, plus getting a 3rd rounder (72) from Tennessee, simply by giving them our 2024 first (in addition to our late first and seconds this year), which is probably going to be late?? There is no way this is possible. By comparison, in 2018, KC moved up 17 spots, from 27 to 10 to draft Mahomes, and we got their 2018 first and 2017 third (91).
Yeah. And possible or not, it would be a genuinely horrible idea. Luckily not something Beane would even consider.
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1 hour ago, That's No Moon said:
Who will they get at 27? It's a simple answer, nobody who will be a significant contributor. Drafting has let this team down. Lots lof JAGs, very few home runs.
No, simply not true.
Rousseau is no JAG, that's simply nonsense. Elam looked like by the end of the year he'd figured zone out a bit, and that was his weakness. He was one of the few to play really well against Cincy. Looks like he's going to be a very good one.
Those two and Tre White (excuding the trade for Diggs) are the only three first rounders we got in the 20s, and not a single one can be accused of being a JAG, though Elam still has some things to prove.
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47 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:
I’m not talking about holding him for a year necessarily. It might be an hour.
Rob Johnson comes to mind as an example. Some dude went from Green Bay to Seattle too.
I see.
An hour or so? I'd disagree even more strongly about that, though. I mean, if they pulled it off, fantastic. But you'd have to have demand for the guy be almost completely guaranteed. I don't think that happens here. Again, if it did, I'd be thrilled.
I'm not sure I remember who you mean by Green Bay to Seattle. Can't be Matt Flynn, he was an FA. But i'm willing to believe it happened. But the fact that you can't quickly come up with five, though you managed more than I did, shows the problem.
That kind of thing is rare, even when you give it three years, as was the time in the Rob Johnson deal. Nice catch by the way, I wouldn't have remembered that one, I guess. But we couldn't wait three years to get value back. With Johnson it was a huge success, getting a 1st rounder for a 4th, but using a first rounder for Hooker expecting the same thing would be much riskier. And part of the reason Johnson brought so much in trade was that he played a bunch due to injury. What if that doesn't happen with Josh?
I'd love to see them using the old-style Belichick conveyor belt to get more picks, trade a 3rd for a 2nd the next year, then the next year trade that 2nd for a 1st. Just like a conveyor belt. But Beane doesn't seem willing to do that.
It's a nice thought experiment using Hooker that way, IMO, but I can't see them doing it. If I were GM, I wouldn't unless a couple of teams were showing rabid interest. At that point I'd start thinking about it, but what if they back off after you drafted him. Then you're screwed.
42 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:Eli Manning says hi.
It's a bit different when the guy is a top five pick.
You're right that Eli is proof that "holding never works" is wrong. But it does require that the situation work in a very specific way. It's why they're so rare.
If a GM was as desperate for Hendon Hooker as the G-Men were for Eli, they'd go get him way above #27.
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10 hours ago, 4merper4mer said:
This year’s draft it reputed to be weak in general. The Bills, like every other team, have holes to fill but impact at 27 seems unlikely in 2023. There truly is only one choice to gain real value if he falls to 27:
Hendon Hooker.
QBs have value 10x any other position. Will the value we get from Hooker arrive in 2023? Maybe, maybe not.
The top option would be to not actually select Hooker but trade the pick to move down a little and get additional picks in 2024 from which we might derive value.
Next choice is to play a game of chicken with teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him. Remember Miami cheated so only 31 first rounders. If they won’t trade with us, simply draft Hooker and hold him hostage for a few hours or up to a year.
The least likely but still realistic option is to draft Hooker and entertain the possibility of developing him and getting a King’s ransom for Allen in 2-3 years. I don’t love this as I am a big fan of Josh, but it’s a business.
If Hooker is there at 27 our pick simply has to involve him via trade, extortion or true selection. There is no way to get that amount of value from anyone else. Crappy receivers, decent receivers that may still be there in the 2nd, running back, OL who may end up being matched by another guy in the 3rd? Absolutely no way. GAIN value for the team.
If Hooker is gone, which he probably will be, then we can be pedestrian. If not, be bold.
Use him to trade back?
I mean I'd love that. Anything we can use to trade back would be helpful. But Hooker isn't generally predicted to go this high. We've got no leverage to use Hooker in that way.
You mention "teams that think they can trade up in the 28-31 range and get him." That's a pretty big assumption. It's possible. If we can do it, I'd love it, but IMO if someone trades up with us, it's more likely to be for someone else. I could certainly be wrong about that.
As for drafting him and holding him, a QB doesn't get more valuable generally in a year. It happens very very occasionally, but not often. Things have to fall just right
Could you give, say, five examples of times when QBs not drafted in the top 10 or 15 get traded (let's open it up a bit, in the first 2 or 3 years of their career) for more than they were drafted for? That's not a challenge, just that outside of Favre it gets hard to think of guys like that. I'm sure it has happened, but generally for guys outside the top ten, it happens more often if they get playing time. If Allen is injured, I'd rather see a vet in there.
Finally, I think Beane has got to get some value from his first down draft pick this year. Not necessarily a full-time starter as people on here keep complaining, but you've got to get some value. If he wants to make future drafts better, I'd rather see him do something like trade our third-rounder this year for a second next year, that kind of thing. Especially if the teams balance things out with a late-rounder or two.
This should be BPA at a position of need or trade back, IMO.
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14 minutes ago, PBF81 said:
OK.
I'm pretty much finished discussing anything with you. All you do is argue seemingly because you enjoy it or because yours is the only relevant opinion with no room for anyone else's.
So sure, whatever you say.
Oh, I see. I argue.
Whereas you never argue, you're far above that. You find it objectionable when people argue because you never do it.
Yeah, right.
Anyway, I do understand why you're bowing out, as I'm sure any reader here does. Your argument has holes, significant, serious ones. I mean, you argue that the regular season means nothing once you reach the playoffs. And then when someone points out the wildly obvious, that it means a hell of a lot in terms of home field, playoff opponents, the week off for the one seed, etc., then suddenly you're angry because I argued.
Right.
Anyway, one more point, you keep talking about this mysterious 9-8 team that then wins the SB. Thing is that sort of thing happens spectacularly rarely, for just the reasons above.
How many teams have won SBs with 8 or more losses in the last 25 years? Went back and checked it for the hell of it. Zero, as I'd thought.
Now how many teams have won SBs with 9 or more wins in the last 25 years. I thought it was one, the Giants, and I was kinda psyched to be just on target.
It's spectacularly rare. The regular season matters a ton.
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2 hours ago, Figster said:
If you asked me If the Buffalo Bills played as well as they are capable of playing vs Cinci /playoffs, my answer is absolutely not. Josh Allen had a bad day which is not normal for him in big games.
Ultimately though regardless of the circumstances someone needs to take responsibility for the poor play so I'll start at the top with Bills HC McD. Both Dorsey and Frazier were also out coached. Dorsey as a 1st year OC in the league has a reasonable excuse. Frazier, not so much and hes gone now.
Everybody had a crap day. Nobody on the team or coaching staff said it wasn't their fault.
They were explaining. Telling what happened.
You didn't hear one of them say anything like, "so it's not my fault," or "that's why we don't need to worry about it." There is no issue here with avoiding responsibility.
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2 hours ago, PBF81 said:
I'm hoping for a Super Bowl win & championship this season just as I was last season and will every season. Once in the playoffs, the regular season record doesn't matter a hill of beans or a cup of ranch dressing otherwise.
Um, it absolutely does matter, and a hell of a lot more than a hill of beans. Ever heard of seeding? Heard the #1 seed gets a week to sit? Heard of home field advantage?
If you haven't, you ought to go look them up. You'd be amazed.
And you're deliberately misunderstanding what he said about what would be best. We all understand that a championship would be best. It's you who doesn't appear to understand that we're saying that the regular season matters, to the Bills and to nearly all of the fans. If it doesn't matter to you, don't watch the regular season. See you in January.
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2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:
The conference is too heavy with the Bills, Chiefs and Bengals. I still think we match up just fine with the Chiefs. Bengals is another story obviously. We sure looked like we were on our way to being 0-2 against them this past season.
other problem is the conference and division especially is getting tougher. That is obvious since the Bills went 2-2 against the Jets and Dolphins and with all three games against the Dolphins being nail biters.
The Bills are still a really good team. Top three in the conference. But teams 4-6 in the conference are now nipping at our heals whereas before their was more separation.
I disagree that the first Bengals game looked like a loss. IMO it looked like the beginning of a shootout.
In the playoff game, our first two offensive series were three-and-outs. In the regular season game, our only offensive series involved moving from our own 25 to the Bengals 7, and kicking a field goal on third down and three. The Bengals probably has somewhere around a 55 - 60% chance of winning that game. It was very very early.
Fair enough on the last two paragraphs.
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2 hours ago, Eastport bills said:
The team was clearly compromised by the incredible challenges and injuries. That doesn’t explain the obvious weaknesses that were exposed in that playoff game against Cinn.. The O-line was manhandled by their defensive front making Josh’s life miserable. The defensive front was ineffective both in pressuring Burrow and stopping the run. They almost looked undersized. The secondary looked a step slow and confused at times. The play calling by Dorsey was representative of a first year OC that was predictable and went for the big play rather than taking what the defense gave you. As much as the personnel changes will be needed to improve both units, Dorsey must evolve this year or get replaced. Sean, must be more proactive in putting his imprint on the team. Last season he deferred to Frazier and admitted that the defense was not physical or aggressive enough and the offense had no effective running attack, went away from Diggs and tried to force the home run ball to receivers who couldn’t separate. We have a great, young QB but last season’s team and coaching staff was not ready to win it all.
They looked plenty ready to win it all in most of the games last year, but particularly before Von Miller's injury.
But the Cincinnati game was very clearly an absolutely terrible game. The players simply played badly. And it wasn't because they were bad players, they played awful in that game. Someone else in this thread said I believe that his wife said they didn't look like the Bills. Yeah. 1000%. I was thinking the same thing and so was about half the country. And the players themselves made it very clear in the post-game interviews that they felt the same.
"“There was no real energy, juice, no momentum.” said linebacker Matt Milano. Milano also said they played "flat."
Those weren't all weaknesses being exposed. That was a team playing far below what they were capable of. Maybe the coaches too, but certainly the players. They had a terrible day.
That doesn't mean that everything's OK now that we've established that and no changes need to be made or thought to be put into it. They do need to work on how to improve, as does every team. But they had a really bad game.
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19 hours ago, JohnNord said:
Simmons, Quentin Williams, Christian Wilkins. These players are true game wreckers at DT.
Ed Oliver is not. Period.
Wilkins, a game-wrecker? Yeah, not really seeing that. My guess is he manages to get somewhere around maybe $15 - $17M/ year for his next contract. Good player, and so far better than Oliver. But game-wrecker is really overstating it for him.
Oliver was headed in that direction in 2021. Definitely took a step back last year, but he had three injuries which looked like they really cut into his effectiveness. He hasn't had a lot of injuries, but he sure did last year.
He could easily take a major step forward this year. Or not. We'll have to see.
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19 hours ago, PBF81 said:
I'll write happily accept going 9-8, squeaking into the playoffs as the 7th seed, them tearing it up to win a championship.
Obviously the point of the regular season is to make the playoffs, and once in the playoffs, to advance therein.
For anyone talking as if simply posting a good season is fine, I'd absolutely love to hear them go tell the players that in a "motivational" speech before the season opener.
Yeah, we get it.
Thing is, that means that 31 teams every year sucked. Which simply isn't true. Having a good season is terrific. A ton better than having a bad season. Not as good as winning a championship, but still a very good thing.
There are plenty of ways to have a really good season without winning a championship. The team that wins the championship had a better season, but anyone who thinks the Eagles had a terrible year last year just hasn't a clue. Same with us. To do so well with a player dying on the field, with a mass shooting in the city, with two man-killing blizzards, with the only time in NFL history that a team had 3 away games in a row in a total of 12 games, and all the rest, was a great accomplishment.
Agreed it would have been much better if we'd won a Lombardi, but 31 teams didn't.
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9 hours ago, Figster said:
When you reach the playoffs you are about as good as the last game you play IMO.
Nah. By that measure the Super Bowl Bills were awful through most of those four years. And they weren't. They weren't quite the best, damn it, but they were excellent.
Doesn't make sense to judge by one game. It just doesn't.
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1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:
Fair enough on your e v a l of Morse. Then my point holds even more water. Beane needs to get a good replacement for him when he is done.
The thing is, none of us know when that need will be. With his history it could be at any time.
And that's fair enough too.
Same with everyone, really. But him a bit more than most.
I think Bates is more and better than you think. Hard to say for sure, but that's what it looked like to me.
And they could certainly draft a guy who is C/G flexible and could move in there when needed.
1 minute ago, McBean said:Won’t end well for McDermott and his puppets.
But hey, shouldn’t we be just ELATED he’s gotten us to the playoffs and broke the drought by a fluke Andy Dalton last second TD!??
We’re getting passed before our eyes. Already passed and far behind KC and Cincy in the AFC. Other teams are coming. Right on our heels. We are wasting the top talented QB in the league at the same time. Window is closing and we are sitting on our thumbs doubling down on mediocre players. Also, we continue to not build around the alpha of the team.
Another year will pass and we’ll be lucky to make the playoffs. If we do, early exit is likely. Sucks I’m so bearish on my team for 25+ years, but I can’t ignore the eye test. Until McDermott and his clan are shown the door, Lombardi will be postponed.
Sad!
"Sad"?
Yes. You clearly are.
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49 minutes ago, BillsVet said:
Yeah, it's time for them to up their game on draft day.
I'd like to think they learned their lesson drafting for need in 2019 picking Cody Ford but then last year they went straight-up need in rounds 1-2, so I'm not confident much has changed.
Their drafts all seem engineered to be safe. Not a lot of calculated risk, aside from the move to take Josh 5 years ago. Aside from that, it's been a lot picks with limited ceilings, though I thought Rousseau was an excellent decision 2 years ago.
I'd strongly disagree with "safe" and "limited ceilings." They've made extreme athleticism a consistent focus. We go after guys with really high RAS scores, and those guys don't generally have low ceilings.
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On 4/6/2023 at 11:20 PM, Shaw66 said:
I don't know why people don't get this. Beane has a very clean line that divides what he will say and what he won't say, and Beane is about as frank and clear about how he sees players as any GM or coach I've heard.
Yeah, exactly. If he has something he doesn't want to address, he's perfectly happy saying he shouldn't talk about that right now, or as Joe B. points out today in his latest Q & A, "I don't really want to get into all of that."
Less smokescreening than just about anyone out there. He just doesn't seem to want to lie to people. Not all that many GMs hold themselves to that, but he seems to.
Doesn't seem to hurt him either.
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20 hours ago, JohnNord said:
But that’s exactly what Beane said in his press conference!?!?!?
Really? Brandon Beane said, "[We are] Set To Double Down on 2022’s Big Disappointments"?
You know, frankly, I doubt that. I think what you've got there is a paraphrase, and not a very good one. With some extra added negativity.
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14 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:
I don't know many Bills fans portraying Mitch Morse as anything more than a tick above a good NFL Center.
His replacement IMO is NOT a backup like Bates. Next season a top Center is needed to be drafted.
Hi, my hand's up.
Mitch Morse is more than a tick above a good NFL center.
He's well above average. Flitting around the bubble of the top ten or so.
Very very athletic and a very good pass blocker. A really good run blocker too at pin and pull techniques and getting to guys on the second level. He's not a good straight-ahead smashmouth run guy, that's not his forte. But he's very good at knitting the line together with good communication and making the guys near him better.
Do we need to get someone to replace him fairly soon? Yeah, fair enough. But it might be Bates, who is not a backup, and whose best position might well end up being center. Might not, but it could be.
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26 minutes ago, BillsVet said:
Cincinnati's OL was crippled with injuries so it was something of a draw there injury-wise. Somehow, Bills fans always forget that.
The other excuse, predictably, was citing their lack of cap room for not improving the offense as much this off-season. It's hilarious the grand canyon level reach people are making to defend them. Or, that McBeane didn't create that problem themselves.
Most of you rubber-stamping the McD vision of NFL football just throw up mental roadblocks and go full automaton whenever someone asks about the value of taking defense at this point in McBeane's football management lifecycle.
Besides, how does Cincinnati manage to go to the SB and then back to an AFC Championship? I guess it was because they had JaMarr Chase as Beane said in January.
Nonsense. The injuries were NOT just DL for the Bills, though we did miss probably three of our four best defenders in Von Miller, Hyde and Da'Quan. Did the Cincy offense miss three of their best players? Two? One?
In fact, the Bills were in much worse condition. Poyer played but he was a shell of himself. White wasn't close to his best. And Jordan Phillips was playing with one arm. We had to give significant snaps to Jaquan Johnson, Dean Marlowe and Cam Lewis. Even Siran Neal played a few downs on D.
If you think they were in as bad a shape as we were, you are absolutely kidding yourself.
And speaking of kidding yourself, ignoring cap problems as a limiting factor is more of the same.
As for the remainder of your post, it's not really relevant to my post which you answered, or even very understandable in paragraph 3 . But whatever. Guess I'm glad you're amusing yourself.
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32 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:
I still think there is a chance that we go defensive tackle at 27
Oliver in his last year
We have no defense of tackles that are signed pasted this year
Me too. Not that we definitely will, but that we might.
I'm becoming a Mazi fan.
Seems like the obvious areas of need, such as MLB and WR, and maybe some areas of the OL, stand a decent chance of having lost the best players and/or not having good value around 27. If theBills don't trade back, DL seems one of the best alternatives to me, though certainly not the only alternative.
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1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:
That is far from completely true. Most of the players are improving from year to year, not degrading. They are getting the best diets and training in the world. They are working at improving pretty much all year long, practicing new skills and improving old ones. They don't reach their physical prime until 27 or 28.
If you're running your team in an intelligent manner, you're expecting most of the players you have to improve. The Bills have reasonable expectations, for example, that Brown, Bates, Dawkins, Davis, Shakir, Cook, Allen, and Hines will improve. They have reasonable expectations that Oliver, Epenesa, Rousseau, Basham, Bernard, Elam, Benford will improve. They expect all of those guys to play better in 2023 than in 22. In addition, you have other guys who are true vets, and although they might continue to improve, they might begin to decline physically. Still, you're happy to have them. Hyde and Poyer and White and Morse are in that category. You don't ignore the fact that you're going to have replace them, and you make plans, but their positions are not positions of need until they show that's true.
I'll repeat something I heard J.J. Redick say. When he was a junior in college, he didn't expect to be drafted into the NBA. Then he got drafted and he made the NBA. As a rookie, he asked a vet what he needed to do in the off-season, and the guy said "learn how to do something you can't do now." Redick said that every year for the ten or so years he was in the NBA, every off-season he developed a new part of his game. Shooting, with the off-hand, changes of direction, dribbling skills, whatever. He said that if you don't keep improving your game, you're on your way out of the league.
It's true in the NFL. A couple of years ago, Diggs was working on developing his stopping muscles. He said everyone works on speed out of the cut, but his trainers had explained that being able to stop in advance of the cut was equally important, so his off-season training regimen was working on those muscles.
I have no doubt that guys like Gabriel Davis and Spencer Brown had very clear off-season programs that were designed to improve particular skills. Neither one of those guys is yet facing is physical decline; on the contrary, both should be physically a little stronger, and also mentally stronger, in 2023.
Nice.
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2 hours ago, BillsVet said:
The only doubling-down on disappointment would be using another premium asset for McD's defense.
Coming off the Cincinnati loss going defense again is like a business revising an aging product line despite their opponents innovating and gaining market share.
If Beane concludes from the Cincinnati and Kansas City losses the last 2 years that they need more defense the result is they'll continue losing track meets against top-end NFL offenses.
There's stubborn and then there's stupid. McBeane are trending away from the former and pointing more toward the latter if they go defense in RD1.
That metaphor makes zero sense.
The Bills D was crippled with injuries, absolutely a different defense than what they'd have been if even ordinarily healthy.
And yet the defense held Cincy to their average scoring total for the year. Both sides were bad, but the problem in that game was the offense. The offense was absolutely awful, though unlike the defense they were healthy. The offense scored ten freaking points and yet nobody on here seems willing to blame anyone but the defense.
Spending more premium assets on the D just makes sense. As does spending them on the offense. Comparing this D to an aging product line is ridiculous.
We need help - premium help - on both sides. If you're going to ignore all of the rest of the year and go from the Cincy game, the offense was the one that played far far below the level that could have been reasonably expected of them.
And it wasn't that Cincy beat up the offense because they were just not as good. The offense had an absolutely horrible day. These things happen, and unfortunately they did.
This team needs to use premium assets on both sides of the LOS.
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Odell Beckham saga over! He signs with…..
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by Thurman#1
"Up to" $18M. Wonder how much of that is actual money.
People on here weren't seeing how much he'd be asking. That's why he isn't here, IMO. As a player, he'd be a really good add. With his salary requests, not so much, maybe.
Seems like a "Lamar, come back, see the shiny thing we got for you?" kind of a move to me.