San Jose Bills Fan
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Posts posted by San Jose Bills Fan
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The Dareus debate is a sub-conversation to the trench player vs skill player discussion.
It's very hard to say.
Dareus was picked before AJ Green, Patrick Peterson, and Julio Jones.
Regardless of people's preferences, that's four awesome football players.
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Weird thowing motion.
Marginal velocity and distance.
Very accurate and his ball is very catchable.
Just outside the group of truly elite QBs.
I'd rather have Rivers than Cutler and Stafford, for instance.
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I see TJ Graham isn't mentioned anywhere so it sounds good to me!
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I was thinking we need an LB with our first pick (Mack or Mosley), but if you look at % of snaps played, Kiko was at 100%, Lawson played 61.7% and Moats and Bradham were both at 25%.
http://espn.go.com/b...iew-linebackers
If we get a guy that takes all of those last 2's snaps, they'd still only be on the field 50% of the time.
The Bills situation is dictated by the fact that Kiko is the only 3-down linebacker that they have.
On teams that have two 3-down linebackers, both of those LBs play a very high percentage of snaps.
Some examples include Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly in Carolina, Bowman and Willis in San Francisco, Wagner and Wright in Seattle, Laurinaitis and Ogletree in St. Louis, Lavonte David and Mason Foster in Tampa Bay, and Karlos Dansby and Darryl Washington in Arizona.
There are more but you get the point.
If the Bills drafted a playmaker/difference maker 3-down linebacker in the draft, his contributions would be significant.
Moreover, the Bills are weak at outside linebacker.
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Conjecture is all we have to talk about right now.
Please go into detail. Tell me why you think my idea of building a team is obsolute. And please keep personal preferences and talk of old school vs. new school out of it.
David DeCastro, having been on injured reserve his rookie year, played this past year and has appeared as second team all pro on some lists. We need to wait on the injured players but there are talented people there and I'm confident that some will be appearing on pro bowl rosters soon.
Now, if you have a yen for reviewing recent draft history, lets take a look at recent 1st rd. WRs shall we???
2011 - A.J Green was selected #4 by Cinnci and has been an excellent pick having been selected 2nd team all pro in 2012 and 2013. Julio Jones, selected #6 by Atlanta has been good. Jonathan Baldwin, selected #26 by K.C. was considered a bust and traded this year to San Francisco for A.J. Jenkins, selected in the 1st. round in 2012 by San Francisco and also considered a bust.
2012 - Justin Blackman selected #5 by Jacksonville. How do you describe him? A head case?? Michael Floyd, #13 to Arizona, didn't do anything his rookie year but has shown signs of development this year. Kendall Wright, #20 by Tennessee, has he done anything??. Of course you know about A.J. Jenkins.
2013 - Travon Auston #8 to St. Louis. Somewhat disappointing although he did have one good game of note. DeAndre Hopkins, #27 to Houston, looks good. The interesting thing to me is he was considered to be not as good at Clemson as Sammy Watkins. Would I take Watkins if he were there at #9 this year? Yes I would. But, he will he be there? And if he is, do we trade down for more picks?
As you can see, there are hits and misses at every position but there seem to be more downright, uncontested misses at the 1st rd. drafted WR position than 1sr rd. drafted Guards (at least in the sample you've chosen).
Regarding NFL convention about drafting 1st. rd. Guards, did not notice last year's draft at all??? And about "NFL" convention, have you noticed how mediocre to downright bad many NFL teams are?? Could it be that following NFL "conventional thinking" is a good way to get yourself fired if you're a coach??? To be generally set against anything is to limit you thinking and your possibilities and that is, generally, not a good way to be.
You asked me:
"So, you're not ok with drafting a guard at #9?"
I gave a very clear and well-supported argument which in this case happens to be conventional thinking.
As for last year, have you considered that it was a one-year aberration? An outlyer?
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I've seen very little of Manziel but he seems like he's got certain gifts that make him very different from other QBs.
I previously described him as a 6'1" 200 pound, 20 year-old Flutie.
That was meant as a high compliment because I'm a huge Flutie fan.
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^^^^^^^^^^^^
Happy New Year?
Dude, you're sniping at me.
:lol: I disagreed with one point you made and suddenly I'm "deliberately misconstruing you," "building strawmen," and "shoving words in your mouth?"
Take it easy.
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Yes, there is such a thing.
It's unclear that even Pittsburgh, which is one of the few islands of stability in a sea frothy from churn, would give a QB 6 years these days to show he could play the position.
The truth is that there are good QBs coming out of college that have thrown thousands of reps and studied nuances of the passing game before they get to the NFL. They can be and are successful immediately.
On the other hand, a coach has to keep his eye on the ball -- it's all about winning. How many really care these days if you could maybe have molded a lump of clay into a serviceable QB with huge amounts of pain and patience? How many people would've been on board with Gailey tinkering with Fitzpatrick this past season and maybe a couple more as well? Even Buddy Nix saw that wasn't going to be the path.
Those players you mention in abstract are the exception, not the rule.
Since 2009, 13 quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round.
Of those 13 only Andrew Luck and Cam Newton look like true franchise quarterbacks. You can include RG3 and Matthew Stafford if you'd like.
One can increase the scope to include QBs taken in the first 3 rounds like Kaepernick, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, and Nick Foles but then you'd also have to add guys like Brock Osweiler, Ryan Mallett, Jimmy Clausen, Colt McCoy, and Pat White.
The inarguable fact is that the bust rate for highly-drafted QBs remains as it has always been: very high, a fact people around here don't acknowledge.
I think you're shoving words in my mouth too fast here. I never said anything about "franchise QBs". I never made lists nor did I create artificial levels and cherry pick. I never said anything about it being a perfect science. Nor did I imply that there is 100% success rate.
What I said was exactly the opposite, in fact. Thanks for backing me up that it is far from 100% certain that EJ Manuel is going to be a franchise QB. Yes, it is NOT an exact science and there is no reason to assume that the Bills (or you) got it right with Manuel at this point. He looked stinky bad at times this season and has a very long way to go.
Let's be clear: Manuel is not a given. (I know you personally liked him and are invested in that sense.) I fully expect that the Bills coaches will be working with him to make him a better player this off-season. It's obvious that he needs the work. It's a no-brainer to say this is going to occur.
Still, Marrone's regime's fate rests entirely on results. He knows this, as he said it crystal clear in the year-end PC. Brandon even rammed it home multiple times in multiple ways that there is an urgency for improvement on the field and Doug and Doug were responsible to deliver that result. It's not that big of a stretch to connect the dots that Marrone's survival rests largely on how the QB situation for the team is addressed. The tone of that press conference was not one of the brain trust triplets taking a long view of hoping a project will pan out in 5 or 6 seasons. It was not another Buddy or Marv PC where the message was patience and pain. I don't take them for idiots; they surely know that the chances the team undergoes a change in ownership in the next 5 or 6 years are very high. At the present moment, Manuel may be their best option at the position, but they'd be fools to cavalierly pass up better options.
You totally misconstrued my post and I put zero words in your mouth.
In counterpoint to you saying:
"The truth is that there are good QBs coming out of college that have thrown thousands of reps and studied nuances of the passing game before they get to the NFL. They can be and are successful immediately."
I replied that "Those players you mention in abstract are the exception, not the rule".
It's as simple as that your comment needed context.
On a separate point it goes without saying that Whaley and Marrone have hitched their wagon to Manuel.
While Chudzinski gets fired in one year while Jim Schwartz gets 5 years most people with historical perspective understand that most GM/Coach/QBs get 3 years. Perhaps the current crew will only get 2 years. Whatever.
As far as your last point about "being fools to cavalierly pass up better options," I again cite my advocacy of possibly drafting another quarterback in the first round:
Argue the case; don't build strawmen.
And, I think you are wrong or misunderstanding or trying hard deliberately misconstrue what I wrote and meant.
Fine. Let's make a list: Ryan, Flacco, Newton, Dalton, Stafford, Luck, Tannehill, Smith, Wilson, Glennon, Griffin, and other first round picks in recent years have all come into the NFL and played immediately. Just like Manuel. The results vary. Some have failed, but many have been effective.
This isn't the NFL of 10 or 20 years ago. Owners/presidents are pulling the trigger faster than ever, and coaches have to be capable of doing the same. That is the gist of this thread, btw.
Bully for them. If they are wrong, I, for one, will not be surprised to see a new regime soon.
So, basically all the bases are covered here. There is a possibility the Bills need to go in another direction and draft a QB high. But, disagree with posts suggesting the same thing with banalities like "only Andrew Luck and Cam Newton look like true franchise quarterbacks."
Happy New Year.
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If Wade had fired his special Teams Coach after the Music City Miracle do think he still be coaching in Buffalo ?
I understand your point but Wade was fired in 2000.
My guess is the league told Ross that Ireland had to go and Philbin too. Ross probably bargained for Philbin and through Sherman uner the bus.
That's an interesting theory.
What do you base it on?
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I heard Gruden to Washington and Jackson in to Cincy as OC... If that happens then the Bengals have had a result!
I think Hue Jackson did an outstanding job as the head coach in Oakland but new GM Reggie McKenzie came in and had to hire his own guy, Dennis Allen.
I don't think the Bengals offense is gonna miss a beat. If anything I think they'll improve.
So he's as talented as Manning/Brady/Brees/Rodgers based on his rookie year (I guess we are ignoring this year's result)? What does he do as well as any of them?
His rookie year was barely distinguishable from Wilson's---and which would you rather have after their first 2 seasons? The one who took a huge step backwards?
It's interesting that you equate talent with results.
Many people think of talent in terms of potential more than they do results. Just an observation.
If I were a Redskins fan, this hire would not make me happy. I think Jay Gruden is a fine coordinator, but watching him on Hard Knocks this last year I don't know if he has the personality or professional aptitude to be a Head Coach. I also consider that despite some incredible weapons on Offense, the Bengals Offense wasn't "spectacular" albeit at times it was good....most of the time, it was just good *enough*. Of course, I could be completely wrong and Jay Grudent turn into the second coming of Vince Lombardi...but, I suspect in 4 years (or less) there will be another press conference similar to the one about to happen...and so goes the turnstile.
I have a friend who lives in DC and is a Hard Knocks devotee.
He felt the same way as you. I don't watch the series but my friend said that Gruden gave Dalton plenty of preferential treatment and that there was a double standard for accountability on the offense.
Not an Andy Dalton basher, but his erratic play was their biggest obstacle all year. I don't put that on Gruden at all.
Yes and No.
Gruden has been his coordinator for 3 years.
In addition, Gruden urged the Bengals to draft Dalton over Kaepernick and Mallett.
Gruden has to be accountable for some percentage of Dalton's play.
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I don't think the Bills intended to start EJ this past season, or at least not until well into the season. I seem to remember lots of talk after the draft that he had a very high upside but needed work to develop. Kolb's injuries obviously changed all of that. If the plan all along was to use the rookie season as a "study and develop" time, with an eye to the second year, then EJ is "on schedule" and even a little bit ahead by having started this year. I'm willing to reserve final judgment on EJ until next year.
If there is a screw up factor here, it has to do with making the highly injury-prone Kolb the key to buying EJ a training year. In hindsight, it might have been more sensible to have just kept Fitz for another year. Oh well.
Agree with your post except Fitz wasn't coming back under any circumstances because the Bills wanted him to take a pay cut.
But Tarvaris Jackson who we already had, was an ideal veteran placeholder/mentor for EJ.
Jackson has arguably had a better NFL career than Kolb and would have cost the Bills a hell of a lot less money than Kolb.
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18 of Johnny's 20 total wins were against putrid teams. 2-6 against good or great teams. That's the story beneath the story that never gets told.
I'm not pro or anti-Manziel but how would you rate the team Manziel played on?
Was he surrounded by a lot of talent?
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Looks like there will be a record number of underclassmen declaring for the draft:
http://profootballta...nter-the-draft/
Gil Brandt of NFL.com reports that 80 underclassmen already have applied for early admission to the draft. That’s seven more than last year’s record high of 73.
Brandt expects the final number to exceed 100 by next Wednesday’s deadline.
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So, you're not ok with drafting a guard at #9? Your thought process is a little hard to discern, San Jose.
There are more than a few ways to build a winning team. You seem to be having trouble defining how you think a team should be built.
I go back to the idea expressed years ago that in Buffalo's climate you need a team that can run the ball. I know that this year's stats indicate that Buffalo ran the ball well this year. Stats can deceive and some of you have been deceived if you look at them and fail to notice that Buffalo has had difficulties running for TDs in the red zone or when opponents know Buffalo intends to run.
Our team cannot be described as being capable of imposing our offensive will on the opposition and that's the team I want for this city. I recall the Lombardy years when no one could stop the Green Bay sweep. It was Kramer and Thurston, two Hall of Fame guards, that made that offense go.
Marrone worries me. There are things that I like about him but the fact that he was an O-lineman may give him the impression that you can fit free agents into guard positions and succeed. It may be that some of the coaches he worked for felt that way and he accepted their line of thinking.
I wonder why he feels that, "as an offensive line coach I realize that you're not going to be able to spend top dollar for five offensive linemen". I ask why not. If there is a guard that is better than a tall WR at #9, and we really need a guard, he's going to select the WR? Players selected in the first round do not impact the salary structure under the current CBA nearly as much as they once did. And just as you might be able to hit on a quality guard with a 4th round pick, the same holds true for that tall WR, although, in both cases, the odds are against that happening. Can anyone dispute that the odds against you hitting on any player position become greater the farther down the draft list you go?
I think part of the problem is that if a guard misses a block and a runner is tackled behind the LOS or a QB is sacked, It is frequently not possible to know that if the block was made, that runner may have scored or that QB might have completed a pass for a TD. It's much easier to know when a runner or receiver crosses the goal line and harder to know that it was a key block by a guard that made the play a success. As a result, many fans want that receiver, TE, or runner. Fewer want that guard. Is Marrone one of those that want's that receiver or TE. He thinks he can develop the Ungas and Aspers and McClains. I think he thought that with Brown and Legursky. Is faulty thinking a recurring problem with Marrone. I think I'm more than a little concerned.
Without going into detail, I think your view of team building in today's NFL is somewhat obsolete.
As for my thought process, I've stated repeatedly over the months that until you're on the clock and know exactly what your options are, it's all conjecture as to what to do.
That said I'm generally against drafting a guard in the first round.
Only if it were the Bills most dire need and I could be guaranteed that the player was the second coming of Steve Hutchinson (17th overall) or Alan Faneca (26th overall) would I take a guard at #9 (see what I did there?).
Now last year's #7 pick was guard, Jonathan Cooper. Unfortunately he was injured in preseason and missed the entire regular season so he gets no grade.
Last year's #10 pick Chance Warmack only played in 10 games last year also due to injury so he gets no grade.
In 2012 David DeCastro was the first guard drafted (24th overall) but has unfortunately had injuries and played just 18 games in two years so he gets no grade.
Three picks later the Bengals took Kevin Zeitler at #27. He looks like he's gonna be a good one but again, he was drafted 27th overall, the first guard drafted after 2 OTs. We'll see if drafting Zeitler before Cordy Glenn and Mitchell Schwartz was a good idea or not.
In 2011 Danny Watkins was the first guard drafted (24th overall). Watkins is a bust. Even on one of the worst O-lines in football and even after the Incognito-Martin fiasco, Watkins could not break the starting lineup.
Guards by nature are guards because they're not talented enough to play tackle or center.
Guards can and are found in the later rounds. As long as I'm repeating myself I'll again point out that of the 5 guards on the 2013 All Pro team, 2 were drafted in the 3rd round and 2 were drafted in the 4th round.
Again there's a very good reason why it's NFL convention to not draft guards in the first 20 picks.
At this early juncture I believe that the Bills would be best served using their first round pick on a wide receiver and waiting until the 2nd or 3rd to address their offensive line needs.
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but he may not be a Bill next year
edit remove an unneeded S
edit added an N to uneeded
One more edit and you have the makings of a pretty decent haiku.
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wha? 75 percent of special teamers were back this year?
that's unpossible.
a glimpse at the list of special team tackles alone is enough to indicate there wasn't a 75 percent return rate.
Chris Hogan, Evan Rodriguez, Brandon Burton, Marcus Downtin, Jim Leonhard, Ty Powell, Jamaal Westerman, Duke Williams, Jerry Hughes and Ron Woods never played one snap for Buffalo last season.
and that doesn't include Easley, who appeared in only three games last season, Ron Brooks, who missed the first seven games last season.
nor does it include Dan Carpenter and Brian Moorman.
quit passing off silly numbers that do nothing to further whatever case you're trying to make, never mind hurting it.
geez. do some research.
jw
and of the 85 players that were listed as being on the Bills roster last season (including practice squaders), there were only 28 who played at least one snap last year and one this year. they couldn't have all been special teamers, right?
BTW, John.
My specific objection to Marrone's year-end explanation of the special teams play was not that he blamed the players or that he was inaccurate about not having a core of special teamers.
My objection is that he is the one who assembled the roster.
My immediate thought when I heard his excuse was "how long does it take to assemble a core of special teamers?"
I also mentally rewound through the Bills career of of Corey McIntyre who was a premier special teamer and I wondered why Marrone chose to let him go when fullback has remained an afterthought in his offense.
Chris White was also an outstanding special teams player who the team traded away because they didn't properly address the QB situation.
As I stated when Crossman was hired, the success or failure of special teams is often dictated by the head coach in terms of how many starters he allows to play them, how much oversight he exercises, and how much practice time he allots.
Any way you cut it up, Crossman's failure is Marrone's failure.
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So, you're ok with drafting a guard at #9?
See my subsequent post. Read through the thread.
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star littlekongfooeylalooey was better all season.
I think you shorted him a few vowels.
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IMO, the Packers have a good receiving corps.
Jordy Nelson is a fine player. Randall Cobb is an Antonio Brown clone. James Jones is vastly underrated. He's very savvy and dialed-in to the offense and he and Boykin are good-sized targets.
Their wideouts are certainly much better than ours.
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If Marcell Dareus wasn't so fat and lazy he'd be making a lot more plays like that.
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Hello.
No hard grudges here from the GB win over my Boys.
Had another chance vs PHI and blew that one too!
Sunday was rough on me too!
My son's best friend is a Niner Fan and I have 3 friends
who are Packer Fans.
At least a native son from Texas had success...Phil Dawson.
My niece and nephew have the honor of attending his high school.
Lake Highlands in Richardson Texas.
Come back and shout when you can. We have missed you.
Well you sure live in a football world.
Happy New Year, K!
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I just watched the game against Northern Illinois.
He looks A LOT like one of last year's prospects, Matt Scott of Arizona.
Very athletic, quick-twitch athlete, good arm talent and a very quick release and a nice feel for the game. The kid definitely has some tools but he played at a the FCS level so it's a huge step up.
BTW, Matt Scott went undrafted last year but is a member of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
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Well I'd go so far as to say that EJ will have a lower interception percentage than Fitz when the smoke clears on his career.
Hopefully he becomes a more aggressive passer as well.
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Condensed Games from 2013:
vs. Eastern Illinois: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jimmy-garoppolo-vs-tennessee-state-2013/
vs. U of Tennessee/Martin: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jimmy-garoppolo-vs-ut-martin-2013/
vs. Jacksonville State: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jimmy-garoppolo-vs-jacksonville-state-2013/
vs. Eastern Kentucky: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jimmy-garoppolo-vs-eastern-kentucky-2013/
vs. Northern Illinois: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/jimmy-garoppolo-vs-northern-illinois-2013/
So that should give anyone interested a good 180-200 snaps from this year with which to judge him.
These are not highlight packages.
Point being, you'll see incomplete passes, sacks, rushing attempts and interceptions in these videos along with any passes he completed.
Andre Reed Elected into the Pro Football HOF
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I think Andre gets in this year.
The only locks IMO are Walter Jones and Derrick Brooks.
Jones is in the discussion of best OTs ever and Brooks is on the very short list of best weakside LBs ever.