Draft Tek new mock draft 4/9

[obie_wan]

Even more proof via ESPN insider: http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/features/rumors

 

Tuesday, April 10

WHO WHAT THE SKINNY

 

Oakland No. 1 pick Russell or Johnson?

<Apr. 10> Calvin Johnson is moving to the top of the Raiders' draft board, but there's one caveat, writes ESPN.com's John Clayton. Al Davis, who loves LSU QB JaMarcus Russell's arm, wants an alternative to Russell in order to justify taking Johnson, one of the most talented receivers to come along in years.

The Raiders are looking at Lions backup QB Josh McCown in a trade. They would consider Daunte Culpepper if the Dolphins let him go. The problem is putting something together before the draft. Trent Edwards of Stanford and some of the second-round quarterbacks could be options as well. If Davis isn't satisfied with the options, he'll take Russell.

 

WHO WHAT THE SKINNY

 

Detroit No. 2 pick Intriguing thought

<Apr. 10> Should JaMarcus Russell fall out of the No. 1 spot, he will cause considerable thinking with the Lions, writes John Clayton. Although the Lions don't want to draft a quarterback, Russell has the type of strong arm that will make them pause for a second.

Not having Calvin Johnson available at No. 2 could kill some of the Lions' trade options. That leaves the Lions with the options of taking halfback Adrian Peterson, tackle Joe Thomas and Russell. For the Lions, Russell will be a thought.

 

Monday, April 9

WHO WHAT THE SKINNY

 

Tampa Bay Trade Bucs trading up?

<Apr. 9> The Bucs appear to be leaning toward trading up to the No. 2 pick to get Georgia Tech wide receiver Calvin Johnson, according to John Clayton. That is why they are trying to do everything possible to make sure the Raiders draft JaMarcus Russell at No. 1. If the Raiders trade for the Lions' Josh McCown, which has been rumored, they might not feel a sense of urgency to draft a quarterback.

The Bucs are keeping in touch with the Lions, who hold the No. 2 pick, about keeping the trade door open. With an extra second-round pick thanks to the Anthony McFarland trade last season, the Bucs have the ammunition to get the player they want.

 

Clayton is a buffoon.

 

He has no better inside info than I do at this time of year-which is apparent from his thoughts above.

 

Whatever GMs feed him is to manipulate the media to their benefit.

[jri111]

Clayton is a buffoon.

 

He has no better inside info than I do at this time of year-which is apparent from his thoughts above.

 

Whatever GMs feed him is to manipulate the media to their benefit.

 

 

It's not about inside information it's about applying logic and analysis.

 

Here, ready for another one? this one is from Scout's Inc.'s Todd McShay's new mock draft which was justed posted on ESPN Insider this afteroon: http://myespn.go.com/conversation/story?id...amp;section=nfl

 

There are some significant changes to the top-10 picks of this updated mock draft. Although there was temptation to give the Raiders WR Calvin Johnson at the top spot, the only way I can justify such a move is if they sign a veteran quarterback.

 

Elsewhere, DE Gaines Adams is a reach at No. 2, but I'm working under the assumption the Lions trade down at least two spots to get a better value on him. The one rumor I did give in to is the Browns taking RB Adrian Peterson instead of QB Brady Quinn with the No. 3 pick. As explained below, this is a worst-case scenario for Quinn, who could experience a Matt Leinart-like free fall to the Vikings at No. 7 or the Dolphins at No. 9 overall.

 

In addition to the noticeable shuffling atop the board, I've added a second round to this version of the 2007 mock draft. Check back next week, when I project all 255 picks in the seven-round process.

 

 

+ -- Underclassman

 

 

 

1. Oakland Raiders (2-14)

Projected pick: +JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU

Needs: QB, DT, OT/G, TE, WR, LB, CB, RB

It seems owner Al Davis' captivation with WR Calvin Johnson grows with each passing day. If the Raiders can talk the Lions into a deal for veteran QB Josh McCown, it will free Davis to pull the trigger on Johnson with the No. 1 overall pick. Until then, Russell makes the most sense for a team loaded with talented wide receivers (Randy Moss, Jerry Porter and Ronald Curry) but nobody to get them the ball.

 

 

2. Detroit (3-13)

Projected pick: Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson

Needs: QB, ILB, CB, TE, S, WR, C, DT, DE

The Lions hold the keys to the entire top of the draft. The aforementioned McCown trade could throw the entire top of the board into flux. Ironically, such a trade could rob the Lions of their trade value at No. 2. The Buccaneers are rumored to be interested, but only if Johnson is still on the board. Assuming, for these purposes, Russell goes No. 1 to the Raiders, the Lions should strike a deal to move down at least two spots and get a better value for Adams, who is the top pass-rushing talent in the 2007

 

 

BTW his draft looks almost identical to Draft Tek's mock draft from yesturday:

 

1. Oakland - Russell

2. Detroit - Adams (projected trade w/ TB more or less)

3. Cleveland - Peterson

4. TB - Johnson (projeected trade w/ Detroit more or less)

5. Arizona - Thomas

6. Washington - Okoye

7. Minnesota - Quinn

8. Falcons - Landry

9. Miami - Brown

10. Houston - Hall

11. SF - Branch

[Pyrite Gal]

PG, I just don't understand your long-time contention that a rookie MLB can't have the smarts to play the position.

 

These days, the pro game is chock full of coaches that make a gazillion decisions and issue orders during a game. Players aren't on an island. Unfortunately there are many (most) Offensive coordinators that lift their leg on a decent run game and decide that passing is the way to go, d*mn the consequences.

 

And defensive coordinators that chronically ignore what's worked most of the game, then panic and play prevent in the waning moments, result often being the opponent marching downfield with short gains to kick a winning FG. See NE's SB wins.

 

Collegian LBs have played the game for some time...they do recognize things. They have instincts. And there is help..vets on the DL, other LB's, DBs. The rookie MLB isn't out there by his lonesome. No doubt experience helps, knowing a tram's tendencies, their players over time.

 

But the offense owns the snap. Even the most astute defensive playcaller is in trouble when an offense shifts things about 5 seconds or so before the snap. And if he starts shouting out changes then, good luck.

 

If my rookie MLB shows better athletic skills than whatever else I have at that position, I'm going to work hard to get him in the starting lineup.

 

Its not that I think that no rookie LB can play MLB, it's that I think the Hybrid Cover 2 which we play is different than what is called for of most MLBs.

 

Specifically the differences called for are:

 

1. In the Hybrid Cover 2 we play which is more like the D called the Tampa 2, the MLB has both the normal sideline to sideline tackling responsibility called for of an MLB on run plays, but also the MLB divides the field into thirds with the two safeties and he has responsibility for deep plays over the middle such as post patterns.

 

 

2. Given these responsibilities, an additional burden is place on the MLB for making good play reads. If the down and distance makes the play a likely pass, it is the MLB who must be careful not to get duped into taking a step back or remaining static to see what the pass routes are developing only to have the RB run a draw or delayed draw up the middle (a quite doable thing as the DTs are looking to penetrate in the Cover 2). Even worse, if the MLB is playing aggressive as we seem to be looking to do (though I think Marv may have had TKO in mind more than F-B with this indictment) and attacks the LOS, but it actually is a pass play and some fleet WR is running a post pattern up the middle then it may be 6 for the other team.

 

I am not saying that Willis cannot play the position, all I am saying is that it likely would involve some painful miscues when he got torched by an enterprising OC who used the fact he has simply not been watching NFL plays develop for year or two to make him make a false step that he can exploit.

 

I GUESS (just like everyone else on TSW) that we maysee the learning MLB starting as a rookie likely get burned a number of times as he sees enough to become a vet. If this comes at the worst times (which most OCs will try to do) it may even cost us a game or two with Willis starting and learning to be a vet at MLB.

 

I am not saying AT ALL that a rookie cannot start (a bunch did last year and numerous Bills), cannot start at LB (a few did last year such as AJ Hawk) or even that you cannot start a rookie who even plays well at MLB (I think Seattle started a rookie MLB last year and they even made the playoffs. However, I am saying that if we start a rookie as OUR MLB in OUR Hybrid Cover 2 this player Willis or otherwise is likely to get exposed several times and our best hope may be to simply hope it does not happen at a critical time or that the opposing QB misfires.

 

We already are dealing with a bad situation at LB in that we are going to have to break in two starters who did not start last season for us.

 

The situation will be made even more difficult since my guess is that wherever he plays, it is gonna be Crowell who does the play calling and makes the adjustments when the QB audibles or the O shifts. It can be done (he did it a few times in he past), however, it is not the norm to have these plays called from a wing position as a player not in the middle of the field simply tends to be off center and cannot see the entire field equally from his focal point.

 

Even tougher in some rowdy stadiums, it simply is that much harder for his teammates to hear him yell signals to the far side of the field and teams sometime have to work out relay systems to make sure the signal gets to everyone. Usually a team will have the MLB or either safety call the signals and alignment changes but given that both safeties are beginning their second season and with assumption that Willis would start at MLB this means the duty falls to Crowell wherever he plays. As I said this can be done it just is not optimal.

 

The final concern I would raise regarding plans to start Willis at MLB as a rookie is simply that though folks stoked by the ESPN end to end coverage and intensely focused on the individual player due to the interest in fantasy leagues simply over-emphasize the importance of the draft.

 

THE DRAFT IS IMPORTANT. However, the conventional wisdom is that a 1st round choice should be a starter and the reality simply is he may be but he also well may not be in the real world. The factual outcome of last year's draft speaks volumes of the limitation of assuming a 1st round pick will almost certainly be a starter as again, a review I did a couple of weeks ago of every team's depth chart showed that of the 32 players drafted in the 1st round 18 of them were in fact starters (some ended the season there and others were expected to start this year) but 14 did not. This was from a draft class viewed to be pretty strong.

 

Even worse there was a strong tilt in finding these 18 starters in the first 10 picks (meaning of the other 22 picks less than 50% were starters. Will Willis be one of the ones who are capable of starting at some point in their first year? Probably, but easily maybe not.

 

Will Willis be one of the ones who can start immediately? Maybe, and easily probably not.

 

These are reasons why I wave the slow down flag to those who seem ready to anoint him an HOF player. He even is being called elite. Given that I define elite as meriting a pick in the top 10 I think there are few others who would call him elite if they use my definition.

 

I think most should raise serious questions if the expectation is that a rookie is going to man the starting MLB role in a Cover 2 and do it well.

[obie_wan]

Its not that I think that no rookie LB can play MLB, it's that I think the Hybrid Cover 2 which we play is different than what is called for of most MLBs.

 

Specifically the differences called for are:

 

1. In the Hybrid Cover 2 we play which is more like the D called the Tampa 2, the MLB has both the normal sideline to sideline tackling responsibility called for of an MLB on run plays, but also the MLB divides the field into thirds with the two safeties and he has responsibility for deep plays over the middle such as post patterns.

2. Given these responsibilities, an additional burden is place on the MLB for making good play reads. If the down and distance makes the play a likely pass, it is the MLB who must be careful not to get duped into taking a step back or remaining static to see what the pass routes are developing only to have the RB run a draw or delayed draw up the middle (a quite doable thing as the DTs are looking to penetrate in the Cover 2). Even worse, if the MLB is playing aggressive as we seem to be looking to do (though I think Marv may have had TKO in mind more than F-B with this indictment) and attacks the LOS, but it actually is a pass play and some fleet WR is running a post pattern up the middle then it may be 6 for the other team.

 

I am not saying that Willis cannot play the position, all I am saying is that it likely would involve some painful miscues when he got torched by an enterprising OC who used the fact he has simply not been watching NFL plays develop for year or two to make him make a false step that he can exploit.

 

I GUESS (just like everyone else on TSW) that we maysee the learning MLB starting as a rookie likely get burned a number of times as he sees enough to become a vet. If this comes at the worst times (which most OCs will try to do) it may even cost us a game or two with Willis starting and learning to be a vet at MLB.

 

I am not saying AT ALL that a rookie cannot start (a bunch did last year and numerous Bills), cannot start at LB (a few did last year such as AJ Hawk) or even that you cannot start a rookie who even plays well at MLB (I think Seattle started a rookie MLB last year and they even made the playoffs. However, I am saying that if we start a rookie as OUR MLB in OUR Hybrid Cover 2 this player Willis or otherwise is likely to get exposed several times and our best hope may be to simply hope it does not happen at a critical time or that the opposing QB misfires.

 

We already are dealing with a bad situation at LB in that we are going to have to break in two starters who did not start last season for us.

 

The situation will be made even more difficult since my guess is that wherever he plays, it is gonna be Crowell who does the play calling and makes the adjustments when the QB audibles or the O shifts. It can be done (he did it a few times in he past), however, it is not the norm to have these plays called from a wing position as a player not in the middle of the field simply tends to be off center and cannot see the entire field equally from his focal point.

 

Even tougher in some rowdy stadiums, it simply is that much harder for his teammates to hear him yell signals to the far side of the field and teams sometime have to work out relay systems to make sure the signal gets to everyone. Usually a team will have the MLB or either safety call the signals and alignment changes but given that both safeties are beginning their second season and with assumption that Willis would start at MLB this means the duty falls to Crowell wherever he plays. As I said this can be done it just is not optimal.

 

The final concern I would raise regarding plans to start Willis at MLB as a rookie is simply that though folks stoked by the ESPN end to end coverage and intensely focused on the individual player due to the interest in fantasy leagues simply over-emphasize the importance of the draft.

 

THE DRAFT IS IMPORTANT. However, the conventional wisdom is that a 1st round choice should be a starter and the reality simply is he may be but he also well may not be in the real world. The factual outcome of last year's draft speaks volumes of the limitation of assuming a 1st round pick will almost certainly be a starter as again, a review I did a couple of weeks ago of every team's depth chart showed that of the 32 players drafted in the 1st round 18 of them were in fact starters (some ended the season there and others were expected to start this year) but 14 did not. This was from a draft class viewed to be pretty strong.

 

Even worse there was a strong tilt in finding these 18 starters in the first 10 picks (meaning of the other 22 picks less than 50% were starters. Will Willis be one of the ones who are capable of starting at some point in their first year? Probably, but easily maybe not.

 

Will Willis be one of the ones who can start immediately? Maybe, and easily probably not.

 

These are reasons why I wave the slow down flag to those who seem ready to anoint him an HOF player. He even is being called elite. Given that I define elite as meriting a pick in the top 10 I think there are few others who would call him elite if they use my definition.

 

I think most should raise serious questions if the expectation is that a rookie is going to man the starting MLB role in a Cover 2 and do it well.

 

The Bills need to get an impact playmaker in the 1st round.

 

They would be extremely shortsighted to avoid an elite player in Willis because he has things to learn about the cover-2 and "settle" for a safer option that may never approach ProBowl caliber.

 

The Bills are not going to win the Superbowl in 2007 with whoever they draft.

 

However, by acquiring impact players and living with the learning curve in 2007 will put them muich closer to becoming a legitimate contender in 2008 and beyond.

[Rumblings]

**note: I just checked Draft tek's website again and they changed it. They're doing some kind of simulation with a seattle seahawks fan board where they had actual people simulate a live draft for the first 24 picks and then computer automated the rest, so it's a bit diifferent. I guess you'll have to take my word for it what it was before they did this crazy new simulation!

 

I really think detroit trading with TB makes the most sense. Detroit doesn't want the number two spot and TB wants to ensure they are the ones that are going to trade up to get Johnson. It works out for both teams. Detroit will probably even try to trade down from 4 again, but I don't see that happening with Russell, Johnson and Peterson off the board in the first three picks. MAYBE Miami would to try to jump ahead of the vikings for Quinn, but Washington would then be a better trading partner becuase they would have to give up less so even that doesn't make much sense.

 

the new one isn't bad either...but the other one is better. The new one has us using our third rounder to trade up to 10 to get Willis and then taking Beason in round two and Irons in Round 3. Rounds 4-7 are pretty much the same.

 

I'd rather stay put at 12 and take either Willis or Poz then give up a third to move up two spots though...but that's just me

 

Funny you should mention that! I am Brian G, and I am actually part of the SB Nation group that is running the Mock Draft associated with Draft Tek. It is I who am running the Bills in that draft (as well as on the network - www.buffalorumblings.com), and it was I who moved up for Willis.

 

SB Nation is far more than a fan board - it is a network of over 100 blogs dealing with all sports. The NFL section's bloggers have been picking for their own teams. As the Bills blogger, I get to play Marv Levy in this 3-round mock.

 

What does everyone think of the SB Nation Mock?

[jri111]

Funny you should mention that! I am Brian G, and I am actually part of the SB Nation group that is running the Mock Draft associated with Draft Tek. It is I who am running the Bills in that draft (as well as on the network - www.buffalorumblings.com), and it was I who moved up for Willis.

 

SB Nation is far more than a fan board - it is a network of over 100 blogs dealing with all sports. The NFL section's bloggers have been picking for their own teams. As the Bills blogger, I get to play Marv Levy in this 3-round mock.

 

What does everyone think of the SB Nation Mock?

 

 

I gotta be honeset I've never heard of SB Nation or Buffalorambling until now. From first glance it looks interesting though, I'll definitiely have to check it out!

[Pyrite Gal]

The Bills need to get an impact playmaker in the 1st round.

 

They would be extremely shortsighted to avoid an elite player in Willis because he has things to learn about the cover-2 and "settle" for a safer option that may never approach ProBowl caliber.

 

The Bills are not going to win the Superbowl in 2007 with whoever they draft.

 

However, by acquiring impact players and living with the learning curve in 2007 will put them muich closer to becoming a legitimate contender in 2008 and beyond.

 

Just to understand what you are saying, what do you mean by "elite player".

 

For example, when WM claimed to be an elite running back, this struck me as unlikely true because I think of an elite player as a top 5 back in the conference. Some have a tighter definition and limit to the Pro Bowlers and thus two or three players at a position from each conference.

 

As far as the draft goes its a different animal because all the teams do not have the same position needs so I can understand while many player rankings are done for the most part comparing how good they think the players are virtually regardless of position and then as the draft draws closer they use the mock draft format to rank them.

 

Overall, I then count players who get selected in the top 10 as "elite players"

 

What do you mean when you accord that status to a player.

 

While Willis is certainly climbing up the board, in general I think most observers seem to feel this is a somewhat weak LB crew with no definite top 10 pick as AJ Hawk was for the LBs last year.

[stuckincincy]

Its not that I think that no rookie LB can play MLB, it's that I think the Hybrid Cover 2 which we play is different than what is called for of most MLBs...

 

....I think most should raise serious questions if the expectation is that a rookie is going to man the starting MLB role in a Cover 2 and do it well.

 

I've read your entire post, like I always do...the above truncation if that's the right word, is for brevity.

 

I'm not a particular fan of Willis, for reasons not worth going into. But I won't wring my hand if the Bills have a rookie start at MLB.

 

There is something to be said for rookie enthusiasm. The B'gals in '05 drafted Odell Thurmann from Maryland. He was a terror for 2/3 of the season...tackles, sacks, fumble recoveries, interceptions. His over-pursuit was eventually figured out, by the B'gals and the opposition. His off-season antics made him persona non grata with the team.

 

Was that team a defensive powerhouse? No. But did Thurmann contribute to a few wins? Yes. Was he wise enough to make the defensive calls, making changes in the few seconds before a snap...no.

 

The more I see of Cover 2, the more I think it's a cover for iffy DB talent, and seems to demand a MLB be the second coming, stopping both runs and swift WRs angling inside.

 

Why not get good DBs somewhere along the way? Having a 240 lb linebacker as the linchpin of my pass defense gives me pause.