Analyzing 10 years of first round TE production
With Kincaid as OUR first round TE, I thought it would be useful to draw a historic comparison with the production that other first round TE's have made their rookie seasons.
Kyle Pitts - 68 rec 1026 yards 1 TD
TJ Hockenson - 32 rec 367 yards 2 TD
Noah Fant 40 rec 562 yards 3 TD
Hayden Hurst 13 rec 163 yards 1 TD
OJ Howard 26 rec 432 yards 6 TD
Evan Engram 64 rec 722 yards 6 TD
David Njoku 32 rec 386 yards 4 TD
Eric Ebron 25 rec 248 yards 1 TD
So there's a few obvious questions here:
1) even though these are all obviously first round picks, there's probably a need to normalize by playing time. In addition to time lost for injuries playing a role, the other players on the roster play a role - for example, OJ Howard was playing with Cameron Brate at TE, who was getting a larger share of the targets (77 vs 39).
2) once normalized for playing time, context matters. We all love to believe that 1st round = guarante
