Yeah, there are what you might call "type I" and "type II" errors in draft-and-develop; "type I would be reaching a false positive conclusion that a guy's "best football is ahead of him" and he can still develop into the player he was drafted to be.  "Type II" would be reaching a false negative conclusion, and giving up on a player as "not gonna cut it" too early. Beane stuck with Cody Ford through 3 seasons before trading him, and looks likely to stick with Spencer Brown through 3 seasons.