I Doubt the Bills will spend Pace level $ at LT

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Cliff notes begin: If you want a new LG then root against the Bills resigning Jennings. Cliff notes end

 

 

 

The cruel math is this.

 

According to the best resource on the Bills salary cap I know of Clumping Platelets has the MW 2005 cap hit at $5.8 million, a number which easily puts MW in the top 10 OL salaries.

 

The total cap he estimates to be $84 million dollars.

 

Merely working on the assumption that to attract Pace, Jones, Thomas or one of the other likely LT FAs they will end up with a contract that makes them the highest paid Bills OL player. Does any of you who advocate picking up one of the best FAs out there using Moulds/Bledsoe or whatever inapired additional cap room hink we are going to devote about 1/8 of our total cap room ($12 million out of $84 million) to 2 players both on the OL.

 

I and everyone outside of OBD don't know for sure what our 05 budget is, but I don't see this happening.

 

In fact, I have my doubts that Jennings will find much of a market for his services that he will get a contract equal to his talent relative to the talent of other LTs like Clifton or Petitguot who have received contracts which average $5 million a year (their cap hits vary as the bonuses are prorated and base salaries are backloaded). My guess (and this is merely a guess) that TD offered Jennings more more money than he has ever seen before, but JJ correctly turned down this deal to see what the market offered him because TD offered him far less money than worse players at LT have received ($3 million annually?). However, when the smoke clears, there may not be a market for JJ at historice LT levels because:

 

1. About 8 of the top 10 OL salaries are for LTs and these teams are not in the market..

2. Many teams are already locked into commitments at LT having given extraordinary offers to pedestrian players like Clifton and Petitgout

3. Many teams with LT need are like AT and simly do not have the cap room to offer a big contract to JJ after signing Vick to a $100 million contract and commiting a big wad to failed FAs like Peerless (in fact if I am AT and manufacture cap room by painful cuts, I use it to help Vick win the SB by buying defensive talent rather than a better LT).

4. For those teams which have BOTH and LT need and a lot of cap room JJ is at best likely the 3rd or 4th best available choice at LT which would lower what the Bills need to pay to keep him.

 

It is the market and JJ may be gone. He only needs one offer and some team either foolishly or cagily might make him offer he can't refuse. My guess is that TD lowballed him at about $3 million which may work, but he may get a better offer from the 49ers who having gone through cap hell will have some $ and do have some LT need. The other likely candidates are Seattle, or the Rams, or Philly if they lose Jones, Pace, or Thomas to FA. Each of these teams has some cap room and JJ may soothe their pain for having lost their stud LT.

 

My guess (and this is really a wild-eyed guess as all of these posts are) is that TD may make an offer of approaching $5 million annually to JJ. If so, I would guess that the combined cap allocation of over $10 million to the two tackles would make it most likely that the Bills will depend on JMac to upgrade the OL through training current players to produce more (particularly Tucker or Smith at LG) and outside of a project draft pick on the second day of the draft or a UDFA that JMac can get the same if not greater development out of than he got from Smith in '04 that is all we're going to see in our efforts to upgrade the OL.

 

The irony here is that if you are rooting for the Bills to get new talent at LG or C, then you better also root for the Bills NOT to see resign JJ because it is difficult with the math for both to happen. The other irony is that the decision to cast our lot with the more mobile JP may actually be a sign that we are not going to acquire better players to upgrade the OL and therefore, we must have a QB who can run for his life if the OL upgrade of current talent does not come to fruition.

 

My guess is that we committ heavily to OL payment by resigning JJ at about $4 million annually and we depend on JMac to squeze upgraded production out of what we got.

[JP-era]

Cliff notes begin: If you want a new LG then root against the Bills resigning Jennings.  Cliff notes end

The cruel math is this.

 

According to the best resource on the Bills salary cap I know of Clumping Platelets has the MW 2005 cap hit at $5.8 million, a number which easily puts MW in the top 10 OL salaries.

 

The total cap he estimates to be $84 million dollars.

 

Merely working on the assumption that to attract Pace, Jones, Thomas or one of the other likely LT FAs they will end up with a contract that makes them the highest paid Bills OL player.  Does any of you who advocate picking up one of the best FAs out there using Moulds/Bledsoe or whatever inapired additional cap room hink we are going to devote about 1/8 of our total cap room ($12 million out of $84 million) to 2 players both on the OL.

 

I and everyone outside of OBD don't know for sure what our 05 budget is, but I don't see this happening.

 

In fact, I have my doubts that Jennings will find much of a market for his services that he will get a contract equal to his talent relative to the talent of other LTs like Clifton or Petitguot who have received contracts which average $5 million a year (their cap hits vary as the bonuses are prorated and base salaries are backloaded).  My guess (and this is merely a guess) that TD offered Jennings more more money than he has ever seen before, but JJ correctly turned down this deal to see what the market offered him because TD offered him far less money than worse players at LT have received ($3 million annually?).  However, when the smoke clears, there may not be a market for JJ at historice LT levels because:

 

1. About 8 of the top 10 OL salaries are for LTs and these teams are not in the market..

2. Many teams are already locked into commitments at LT having given extraordinary offers to pedestrian players like Clifton and Petitgout

3. Many teams with LT need are like AT and simly do not have the cap room to offer a big contract to JJ after signing Vick to a $100 million contract and commiting a big wad to failed FAs like Peerless (in fact if I am AT and manufacture cap room by painful cuts, I use it to help Vick win the SB by buying defensive talent rather than a better LT).

4. For those teams which have BOTH and LT need and a lot of cap room JJ is at best likely the 3rd or 4th best available choice at LT which would lower what the Bills need to pay to keep him.

 

It is the market and JJ may be gone.  He only needs one offer and some team either foolishly or cagily might make him offer he can't refuse.  My guess is that TD lowballed him at about $3 million which may work, but he may get a better offer from the 49ers who having gone through cap hell will have some $ and do have some LT need.  The other likely candidates are Seattle, or the Rams, or Philly if they lose Jones, Pace, or Thomas to FA.  Each of these teams has some cap room and JJ may soothe their pain for having lost their stud LT.

 

My guess (and this is really a wild-eyed guess as all of these posts are) is that TD may make an offer of approaching $5 million annually to JJ.  If so, I would guess that the combined cap allocation of over $10 million to the two tackles would make it most likely that the Bills will depend on JMac to upgrade the OL through training current players to produce more (particularly Tucker or Smith at LG) and outside of a project draft pick on the second day of the draft or a UDFA that JMac can get the same if not greater development out of than he got from Smith in '04 that is all we're going to see in our efforts to upgrade the OL.

 

The irony here is that if you are rooting for the Bills to get new talent at LG or C, then you better also root for the Bills NOT to see resign JJ because it is difficult with the math for both to happen.  The other irony is that the decision to cast our lot with the more mobile JP may actually be a sign that we are not going to acquire better players to upgrade the OL and therefore, we must have a QB who can run for his life if the OL upgrade of current talent does not come to fruition.

 

My guess is that we committ heavily to OL payment by resigning JJ at about $4 million annually and we depend on JMac to squeze upgraded production out of what we got.

229856[/snapback]

 

 

why are you such a party pooper? cant we just dream for once?

 

I, for one, would not pay Jennings 4 mill per at this point.

 

I also feel that it would be HUGE to get a stud LT with the possibility of a young QB being at the helm. The more comfortable he is in the pocket, the easier it will be for him to learn. Rattled QB+ virtual rookie= mistakes.

 

Again, you seem to be shooting for spreading the dough around to lots of second tier guys when we really may be better served by adding a few studs.

 

Do me a favor and show the dollar figures and players or player types you have in mind for this offseason. Lets use 13 mill as our spendable cap cash. I think this is realistic if you add up our 9 mill already under, drew pay cut or realease, Moulds restructure, Henry trade, and a few other releases Prioleau..etc.

[DeeRay]

The Bills might not spend big$$ on a LT... but i certainly wouldn't rule it out...

 

they're spending $3.5m on a safety right now... and they were paying Bledsoe $5M until this year... so... anything is possible. It comes down to whether or not TD believes whomever the Bills may sign at LT provides value.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

I like the challenge that JP-Era put out there of fashioning an OL with a $13 million cap hit budger. Even though this may be off +/- $3 million from TDs actual budget for the OL, its a ballpark which brings some realism to the dream of having Orlando, Pace, Mike Wiilams, Kent Hull, Forrest Gregg and whatever.

 

This may take a couple of days to find the time to work through but I'm game.

 

In response to someone pointing out we are already spending $3.5 million at safety or $5 million on Bledsoe so spending an exorbitant amount on an LT isn't rediculous. True, but it is exactly because we have devoted so much of our cap to expenditures on safties and on Bledsoe and on MW that it is impossible for us to meet the cap and also spend even reasonably on LT.

 

Yhe key question for those who care about the Bills and want to deal with reality is that by contract we are going to have a cap hit of $5.8 million for MW. How much of a cap hit do you expect us to be able to spend on an LT given this fact. Jones, Pace, and Thomas are certainly better players than MW but the OL franchise tag last year was over $7 million a year (a sum which Pace and Jones got having been tagged) and I don't see them getting less money this year than last and us devoting so much of our cap room to two players on the OL.

[The Quebecer]

Hi FFS, what do you think of the possibility of getting someone like Shelton instead of Pace/Jones/Thomas, while keeping JJ? Do you think it is doable within the Bills budget?

 

Thanks,

Looking forward to your response...

 

Later,

Pat

[njsue]

You do what you have to do to beef up the offensive line.

[obie_wan]

The Bills might not spend big$$ on a LT... but i certainly wouldn't rule it out...

 

they're spending $3.5m on a safety right now... and they were paying Bledsoe $5M until this year... so... anything is possible.  It comes down to whether or not TD believes whomever the Bills may sign at LT provides value.

229920[/snapback]

 

Bills paid Drew $8.75 mil in 2004.

 

If Teflon Tom stopped wasting good money on a burned out QB, there would be plenty of cash to sign a quality LT.

 

Jennings will be the best buy at LT for the production. Any free agent other than Pace/ Jones will be a crap shoot. Bills should stick with JJ who is a very solid LT. Teflon TOm will proably bet the house that new strenght coach will JJ onthe field.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Hi FFS, what do you think of the possibility of getting someone like Shelton instead of Pace/Jones/Thomas, while keeping JJ? Do you think it is doable within the Bills budget?

 

Thanks,

Looking forward to your response...

 

Later,

Pat

229964[/snapback]

 

It certainly would seem to be a possibility that makes a lot of sense.

 

1. AZ is apparently in need of a starting RB after the retirement of Smith.

2. AZ has given Shelton permission to seek a trade which means they are willing to take the accelerated cap hit for cutting him.

3. Shelton is obviously not a Pace/Jones/Thomas level talent at LT, but then neither is JJ so we are willing and able to have a good but not great talent at the spot.

4. I've never paid any attention to Shelton's play so I have no good he is, but certainly at some point he showed well which is why he got the big bucks from AZ. Though i assume his outpute has declined (AZ's willingness to let him go and take the penalty of an accelerated cap hit in doing it, JMac would need to make an assessment of whether he can revive Shelton's play if Shelton has problems.

5. AZ will take the accelerated cap hit for his bonus and Shelton's Bills cap hit would be a very doable $3 million which i think easily fits our OL cap budget.

6. Buffalo seems like a very doable location for Shelton as he is on record as saying all he wants to do is start and he will play anywhere. Further, our Shelton is his cousin so communication with him over contract and whatever motivation having a family member on the team provides is there for the Bills.

 

AZ is a warm weather location (not FLA but a warm city is one of TH's wishes). AZ has ample cap room and can make a long-term deal with TH work if they want to. I think setting an alleged worth for TH based on a draft pick is a game not based in reality anyway. Shelton is not a top flight LT, but has experience and is a current player who fits a need for us.

 

Unless there is something here we fans can't see, I say make the deal,