Z-Mann
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Posts posted by Z-Mann
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19 minutes ago, SlimShady'sGhost said:
The GOAT. Tom Brady
the players
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/nwe/2002.htm
My point is -- young QB's need time to develop. They need to learn and hone their game.
1 INT in the last month is impressive
Yes they do. However, I can't point to many examples where a QB was downright BAD in their second season and became something good....and right now he's a BAD QB.
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I do not understand all the defending of Allen that I am seeing. A lot of what is being said is not wrong - still a young guy, not even a full second season, feel like he's gotten better at the short passes...there are some reasons to remain hopeful.
Here is where my disappointment comes in - if I were to ask a football fan if they would be happy if their second year QB was 31st in DVOA (out of 33 QB's that have thrown at least 150 passes) and also 31st in QBR, 9 games into the season...like, we would all be disappointed in that, right? Is it wrong to have expected something more at this point?
As Bills fans, we have something that no other fan has for Allen - faith. Faith that he will be "the guy" and is capable of carrying the offense on his back when needed. But by almost any statistical measure that's important for a QB, even though we are halfway through his second season, he is a BAD quarterback. Then the Tyrod comparisons start up...and yes, Tyrod had his ceiling with us and is now relegated to backup duty...but he wasn't good enough and almost all Bills fans wanted to move off him. JA puts up similar numbers as Tyrod did, and the excuses start coming out, mostly having to do with his age and tenure in the NFL compared to TT. Both true points. It does not diminish the fact that JA is still a BAD QB at this point in time. Yes, more of an opportunity to get better than TT due to tenure and age, but right now Allen is not a good quarterback.
He really needs to take a significant jump from his second to third year. I *hope* he does, but I'm not seeing it trending that way based on the data...
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I do feel like it's important to note that JA has produced more turnover opportunities (18 total, 11 fumbles 7 INT's) than touchdowns (16 total, 10 passing 6 running). I don't feel like the turnover problems falls as much on the coach as it does on JA...he should have moved past this by now, and he hasn't.
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And as others have said, a great coach/coordinator can mold their system around the strengths of their players. I do not know either way the degree to which Daboll is doing this...
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1 hour ago, Sunshower said:
Allen is progressing though, I think he is going upward and he is the most important pick. Now some may bring up Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Lamar Jackson and for that I have no defense. Some of that is on Beane, some that isn’t. Bottom line is if Allen grows Beane will be here for 10 years easily, if not he could be gone in a year and a half.
This is not directed at you, although I understand how you may take it that way.
I've seen plenty of posts that say Allen is progressing. There are some metrics that we can point to that say he is better than last year - DVOA and QB rating being two.
Here's my issue - at the beginning of the yea, if I had asked anyone on this message board if they were going to be happy if Allen was 30 out of 32 starting QB's in DVOA (behind guys like Mariota, Rudolph, and Kyle Allen) and , and 31/32 in QBR (only ahead of Mariota)...9 games into the season, would ANYONE have been happy with that? Is it really a terrible thing to have expected something MORE than that?
I get the "look at the record" thing, but just focusing on Allen's progression as a QB...
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47 minutes ago, Iverwig said:
1. Baltimore is a MUCH better organization and staff then the Bills.
2. Please show me what kind of success Daboll has EVER had as an OC. His only success came at Alabama where he had much more talent than everyone else. As a matter of fact if you look at his offensive rankings this year compared to his other NFL OC stops he’s actually doing better with Josh as his QB. Every other stop Daboll was at his offense ranked at the bottom of the league.
3. Roman at least had some success but more importantly he NEVER coached Josh here so you can’t compare.Like you said apples and oranges. I laugh at some of the fans around here. It’s like I posted in another post half these fans don’t really know football.
I feel like his only point was, that we are quick to blame the offensive coordinator than we are our QB...that was the case with Roman/Tyrod (although Tyrod clearly had his detractors), and I see the same pattern here. Lots of people blaming the OC more than the QB. Maybe the QB just has too many limitations at this point in his career, which hampers what they can do on the field?
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7 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:
He's in his second year and if he is playing at the level of Andy Dalton who had AJ Green, Mohammed Sanu, and all the other talent around him; I will take it at this point. We have John Brown and Cole Beasley that are consistent; that's it (maybe Knox on occasion). Allen is certainly ripe for criticism, and he is his biggest critic, but look at the talent around him right now. Last year, Foster was the go-to guy and he had is first catch yesterday. We have Singletary, but what can you do when OC abandons the RB. I'll be sure to look out for your positive posts and give you a thumbs up when you do; and I will do the same if your criticism is fair and not jaded.
Sorry, it's really difficult to be that guy who wants to compliment their co-worker on the nice tie they are wearing, all while they are late to work, missing deadlines, and makes mistakes in their numbers. I'll try, just for you though
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4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
The above is a fair take. A counter-point is that Allen had very little supporting cast last year, and a wholly new cast playing in a stated-complex offense this year. By "guys we passed up on for Allen" I assume you mean Watson and Mahomes; that ship has sailed, and we weren't on it. So the fair question is who in their first or 2nd year is playing better, and then why? Do they have better supporting cast? Play calling that protects them/minimizes what they're asked to do?
Lamar Jackson is clearly playing lights-out, but he's also in a system that we refuse to consider - a system tailored to his strengths as a dual-threat QB. For better or worse, we are insistent that Allen will sink or swim as a pocket passer.
The "Taylor was run out of town for worst numbers" is not, for the reasons cited. It is worth pointing out again that various "secret sauce" metrics like FO's DVOA, ESPN's total QBR, and whatever it is that PFF uses have been questioned for how well their results reflect actual QB play. I take them with a grain of salt when they're good (as when they ranked Taylor #9 or #10 overall in a year where the offense was overall mediocre in production) or when they're bad.
My expectations are maybe just higher than some on this board (not you). It could be argued that Trubisky is about the same as Allen this year. He's not a first or second year guy, I understand, but it's becoming accepted that the Bears QA absolutely stinks. Kyle Allen, Daniel Jones,. Kyler Murray, Gardner Minshew, Mason Rudolph (same draft as Allen) are all putting up better advanced metrics than Allen...and I expected MORE from Allen, not to be on par or worse than a bunch of first year starting QB's. And none of those teams - except maybe the Steelers - strike me as having significantly better talent or coaching than the Bills do.
What we have in abundance is "hope". I/we HOPE that he will develop into something of a top 5-10 QB, but there is still little evidence that we can point to that says that this could be the case. I expected him to be an "average" QB this year...and he's far from it....
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12 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:
Way to dodge the question; I will ask it again. Do you comment on both the positives and negatives of his play, or do you just criticize?
When there is something positive, it should be pointed out. I have no problem doing that. When there is something negative, it should also be pointed out. Right now, for every one positive there are about three negatives, and that turns into, "why do you only criticize".
He has improved his short game and has improved his DVOA and passer rating from last year. That's great.
He still has a massive fumbling problem, can't hit a long throw, still has issues reading a defense, his QBR has gotten worse, his completion % has dropped below 60%, has passed for only TWO more TD's than Mitchell "frickin" Tubisky, his coaches clearly do not fully trust him...
There's a lot more bad than good going on. We have every right to be critical of him AND the rest of the team right now. This year he IS Andy Dalton as a passer. We traded UP in the first round and found our game manager. Are you ok with that?
KYLER MURRAY has a higher passer rating, thrown for more TD's, less INT's, higher completion %...and I don't want to hear that Arizona has all this great talent along the O-line and WR's. There is a lot of concern on this board, as there should be.
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1 minute ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:
Big difference between being critical and providing constructive criticism, to being biased because you have an honest dislike for someone. Where you do fall? Do you comment on both the positives and negatives of his play, or do you just criticize?
"Our critics are our friends, for they do show us our faults".
I fall on whatever the data and evidence tells me to. And right now it's telling me that he's one of the worst starting QB's in the league. I do not know all the intricacies that go into coaching, but he clearly has more weaknesses than strengths at this point in his career. I do not think it's too much to ask for him to be an "average" QB by now...
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7 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
OK, I'll take this on. "Taylor was run out of town for posting better numbers than Allen has"
This is incorrect on several fronts. The primary front is that when Taylor joined the Bills, he was in his 5th year in the league who had been sitting in a pro QB room with some very good OC's and QB coaches. He knew what the game was about; he knew how to prepare; he had every opportunity to learn how to read the D. Even though he wasn't getting the starting reps, he knew the score and had the opportunity to "invest in himself" with VR systems and passing coaches.
It was hoped that between his 1st and 2nd year as a starter, and his 2nd and 3rd year as a starter, he would take a step - learn to throw with anticipation, throw receivers open, step up into passing lanes, and make contested throws. He did not. In fact, he regressed from 217-202-187 ypg and in the 3rd year with Dennison, it was clear he was not going to develop into the pocket passer McDermott and Beane want.Meanwhile, Allen is in his 2nd year as raw QB from a lower-tier program, who had bupkis for OL, WR, or rungame last year. He has progressed (despite what some people say) in terms of his ability to hit the short/intermediate passing game, to move around in the pocket and make the throw, and to read the D and progress in his reads. He is standing in and making throws where he would have bailed and run successfully last year. This change shows in hard metrics such as significant increase in completion percentage, significant increase in YPG, and significant decrease in INT %, slight increase in YPA, and decrease in sack yardage lost and run yardage.
Is Allen where he needs to be to be "The Man" for this franchise, Hell to the No. But he's showing some progress. If he ceases to show progress after his 3rd season, I have no doubt that the Bills will move on.
To recap: Tyrod was not "run out of town" for generating similar or better numbers to Allen. The Bills moved on because after 3 years as a starter, it was clear he wasn't going to develop along the lines they wished. If Allen is seen as plateauing short of what the Bills need as QB, he too will be gone.
But Allen will get a similar or greater amount of time as TT did to learn and develop because 1) Taylor had more time in the league before he got here, so should have started from a higher knowledge base 2) we invested a high 1st round pick in Allen, and those guys get more rope, it's just how it is.
And the Lieutenant has a point that when a guy can't seem to acknowledge anything good (and even our praise-chary HC can after a bad day), it does cast his overall judgement into some doubt.
You are not wrong - he's better this year than last in QB rating and DVOA, worse in QBR, so yes he does seem to be "better". The problem is, he's still one of the worst starting QB's in the league using those measurements, and guys who are in their first year and/or we passed up on for Allen, are already playing BETTER than him in those same statistical categories. And the Bills schedule has been easy so far, one of the easiest in the league.
My only point...no one really knows what's going to happen, but at this point in time I feel like there is more evidence saying that Allen is NOT the guy than there is evidence showing that he IS the guy. And I feel like it should be reversed by now....
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15 minutes ago, jrober38 said:
Jeeze.
Being critical of a QB who is near the bottom of the league in every passing category means I want to run them out of town?
I just want someone who can lead an offense and score points. So far Allen hasn't shown he can do that, and we should be looking for someone who can.
Don't take offense to those comments - happens every year, where there is criticism towards the QB (rightfully so more times than not), and people come to defend. I feel like it's few and far between, those fans that WANT Allen to play poorly, but why can't we be critical of him again? he is playing POORLY overall. QBR? Down towards the very bottom of the league. QB Rating? Guy like Trubisky, Kyle Allen, Minshew, Rudolph, and Mariota are all better. DVOA? Again, one of the worst starting QB's in the league.
This is Allen's second season, coaching has stayed consistent, defense looks "ok", better weapons than last year, played a bunch of lousy teams...and overall he still looks like the exact same QB, being better on shorter throws and worse on longer ones. I do not understand why we can't be critical of that kind of overall performance...
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I know he's had longer tenure with other teams, but Gore really seems like a Buffalo kind of guy, with a strong work ethic & positive role model for others. Would be nice to keep him around in some capacity if (when??) he retires...
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To use some economic terms, the lagging indicator is "6-2" - no complaints there, and it's ultimately the thing that matters most when trying to make the playoffs. So I get it from that angle. Would rather be a 10-6 team that plays a easy schedule and makes the playoffs versus a 7-9 team that plays well but does not make the playoffs.
I also see the other POV...the leading indicators and everything that goes into that 6-2 record...I just do not know if it can be sustained. They've played an easy schedule, the QB is averaging either a fumble or INT for every TD he produces (passing and running), the majority of their games have been at home so far...there's plenty of reason to feel that this is ultimately a 9-7 type of team once they start playing better teams.
So, great that they are 6-2, but cautious about their upcoming schedule and ability to make the playoffs.
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2 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:
This doesn't pass the smell test. I agree with your point on the offense, but the defense, even including the last two games is better than slightly above average. Coming into the game they were ranked 3rd overall. That's better than slightly above. I think you're undervaluing 10% better.
I'm not a statisticians major, but I believe what you need to do would be determine the standard deviation of both the offensives and defensive stats. While 10% doesn't sound like alot, I wouldn't be surprised if that is better than most.
The defense still might be a VERY good defense, especially when compared to the rest of the league...like you said, ranked third overall. He is just comparing how their defense played against those teams with how other defenses played against those teams.
Besides the Patriots game, where the defense played out of their minds, the Bills are stopping their opponents at approximately the same rate that all other teams are. That tells me that it's difficult to determine how good the defense really is...not saying they are bad, also not confident that they are top 5 in the league...
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3 minutes ago, london_bills said:
'They are a team that finds ways to win against bad teams, coin flip against "ok" teams, and has a high probability of losing against good teams.'
You are totally right with this.
I cannot think of a big signature win under McDermott against a BETTER team. Maybe Minnesota, that's it.
if we keep beating the bad teams he will keep his job but we do lose to the better teams and there will be a point where this starts to be highlighted.
WE LOSE TO THE BETTER QBS AND BETTER COACHES.
(The browns game is one this bills could win).
Agree, I can see them winning or losing the Browns game. I still feel like the Patriots will have something to play for, whether it's a 1 seed or undefeated season, so that's a loss. I just feel like the Browns game is going to be a critical one, especially if they split against the Steelers and Broncos. If they can win two of those three games, I feel like they have a shot at 10 wins and a playoff spot....
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Totally agree. They can beat bad teams, flip the coin against an "ok" team, lose against good teams. Give me any kind of a statement win, home or away. They will have a few chances later in the season (Patriots, Ravens, Cowboys), but it is difficult to see them winning those games....
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I feel like he will be canned after next year. The Bills are showing us who they are after about half the season, at what point do we believe what we are seeing? They are a team that finds ways to win against bad teams, coin flip against "ok" teams, and has a high probability of losing against good teams. Playing the schedule game...
- Washington - Win
- Browns - Loss
- Dolphins - Win
- Broncos - Win
- Cowboys - Loss
- Ravens - Loss
- Steelers - Loss (or win this game but lose Broncos game)
- Patriots - Loss
- Jets - Win
Final record 9-7, miss the playoffs, Allen looks about the same that he does now. Coach keeps his job (and he should), OC is potentially fired. They go into next year facing a tougher schedule and potentially a new offensive system, Allen does not progress as much as we would like, they go 5-11, Coach is fired after four seasons and one playoff appearance.
I HOPE I AM WRONG. But this staff is going to live and die with Allen, and I feel like they *think* they can continue to win games 17-14, with a strong defense and a limited offense. We have seen this thinking dating back to his first year as coach & Tyrod, and this season has given me no reason to think differently. The lagging indicators look great - they are WINNING. But the leading indicators and looking beyond the winning...I just do not feel like the winning can be sustained with the upcoming schedule and their playing style.
Hope I am wrong....
Some Allen/Offense Stats
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
...And THAT! I do NOT want to move off him right now, it would be foolish to do so. He has shown SOME positives, and he does need more time. He's a bad QB right now. If by the end of the season he is still a bad QB, and halfway into next season he is STILL a bad QB (think bottom five in QBR/DVOA type of thing)...then I feel like it's a reasonable take that the organization needs to start thinking about moving off him.