Z-Mann
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Posts posted by Z-Mann
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I feel that both can be true...the cop was acting like a d***, but OBJ had no business slapping a cops' rear end. I feel like there should be a consequence for both individuals...
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3 minutes ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:
I’ll take people healthy and good depth over the way a ball bounces.
The JA better clean up that fumbling problem, because a lot of his fumbles bounced the right way for us to recover. He was third among QB's in fumbles in 2019 with 14. From the top 25 fumbling QB's (minus Allen), they lost the ball about 44% of the time. Allen only lost it 29% of the time. And he was coughing the ball up in a lot of critical situations, but where we got the ball back.
So I maintain that the Bills defense did something that is hard to sustain that made them better, just as the Bears defense did.
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On 1/12/2020 at 10:51 AM, atlbillsfan1975 said:
Not in similar fashion. Most games in the NFL are close.
Fair statement. I also feel like it's fair to say that both defenses did something that is tough to sustain...that is, the Bears with their turnovers and the Bills with their health...
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On 1/12/2020 at 9:21 AM, billsfan1959 said:
It is a lazy comparison. Doesn't surprise me at all. If there is a chance to compare Allen's play to any QB or situation with a positive outlook versus a negative outlook, you can count on the negative comparison about 90 percent of the time.
Why do you think that is though, that people - fans and non-fans - have that perception? Not sure what the answer is, but I feel like it's equally as lazy if anyone says that "people just hate Buffalo" or whatever....
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2 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:
No. If a team wins 6 this year, the best guess is that they’ll split the difference with .500
and win 7 next year. Again, that’s before rosters are settled, etc. While my prediction now would be that the Pats go 10-6 next year, if Brady leaves and Stidham is the QB, obviously that goes down.
Yea, sorry, that's what I meant - a 3 win team in 2019, dirty math, may get around 5-6 wins in 2020. Make sense, good rule of thumb.
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6 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:
9 or 9.5 wins should be the over/under assuming no huge roster changes. It’s just a much tougher schedule. Folks are focused on the outside of the division opponents, but the Dolphins and Jets won’t be easy next year.
My general Quick and Dirty rule (if your formula works better, please share it): take last season’s record and regress it 50% to the 8-8 mean.So for teams under .500, you would improve them 50% to the mean of 8-8?
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Also want to add - there are some exit points between "success" and "failure". For example, If they are on the cusp of the playoffs but don't make it, and Allen was hurt for 10 games, 4 of our starting OL went out, Singletary gets hurt, etc...I don't know if I would consider that a "failure".
Assuming they stay relatively healthy next year and avoid injuries to multiple key players, I do feel like anything less than a playoff birth, even with a tougher schedule, would certainly be disappointing. If that's the case, it could mean a variety of things, none of them necessary good...like Allen didn't play well, or our draft picks busted out, or we got out-coached in numerous games, or they weren't as good as we thought they were (due to strength of schedule), etc.
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30 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:
So, you are confident that the Jets and Dolphins will improve; however, the Bills and Allen won't?
Good question - for me, it's just a numbers thing. The better you are, the harder it is to improve. A team that won 3 games in 2019 and wins 7 in 2020...4 win and 57% improvement. I'm not sure how realistic it is to expect that same kind of jump from a team that had say, 11 wins in 2019.
I also feel that, incrementally, Miami and the Jets just have more room to improve. Bills were very healthy all year, while the Jets had all sorts of injuries. If the Jets and Bills both get better by 20% but the Jets players stay healthy, they would make a bigger jump from 2019 to 2020. Just as an example.
Realistically, there are just so many dang variables in football, a bounce here or there, a few untimely injuries, etc....can swing a team from 7 wins to 10 wins, and vice versa.
I do feel like the Bills should be a more talented team next year.
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22 minutes ago, JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS said:
I agree the sched made 10-6 possible this year but the team is just getting started. We add a legit #1 receiver and some other pieces and we are rolling. Also JA does continue to develop, and if his strides are half as long coming into 2020 as they were between 2018 and 2019, he will be the QB we have been waiting for. I think we go 10-6 or better next year even with the schedule, conference champs and we should win a playoff game or two. Not Superbowl caliber yet but look at where this team was in 2017 and think where we may be in 2021.
Yea man, you're not wrong and all reasonable things to say. Hard for anyone to argue that he didn't improve in year 2. Among some other things, I still worry about his completion %, and how he still could not crack 60%. I would be more "ok" with that if he passed the ball like we thought he would at the beginning of the season...namely lots of long bombs and big throws. Totally understandable how a QB may have a lower CP playing like that...but a huge majority of his throws were short and intermediate. *If* that continues to be the case, he really needs to make another big jump into year 3 and get closer to that 70% mark. Huge win for him and fans if he can pull that off.
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On 1/5/2020 at 3:18 PM, HardyBoy said:
The only goal there is to get up by three scores, period, end of story. They were in perfect position to do that before the Watt sack and Allen got rattled after that, which happens and impacted everything that came after it...and they still almost won. Put away the pitchforks.
That was the biggest game of Josh Allen's life he'll learn from this. Shoot it took Lebron James getting posted up by JJ Barea and the Mavs to learn the lessons that allowed him to mentally excel in that level of stress and expectation.
Slightly disagree with the, "he will learn from it" part. Just because a mistake happens doesn't necessarily mean that learning WILL take place and will be absorbed. For example, earlier in the season when Josh had some fumbling problems, we could have said after each one, "well, he learned from that". Yet he continued his fumbling issues throughout the season and into the playoffs. On the other hand, it looks like he may have learned something from the interceptions that he's thrown because he took care of the ball much better the second half of the season.
That's all I got. Just because mistakes happens does not necessarily equate to learning and improving on said mistake.
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I'll say 8-8...the team benefited from an easy schedule this year, and next year it seems to be tougher. Not a big fan of the schedule game, but prior to the 2019 season we mostly thought that our schedule looked pretty easy, and it was...big help for us.
I also feel like the Jets and Miami will be better, so those are not borderline guaranteed wins, while the Patriots take a step back. 8-8 / 9-7 might win this division in 2020.
Josh Allen will continue to be a maniac and win some games in the 4th quarter and show to be electric at times, but look lost in other games. He won't improve much from his 2019 season, and we will start questioning whether he really is "the guy" that can bring us a Super Bowl, not just get us to the playoffs.
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I just don't understand how both can't be true - feels like either you love Allen and he can do no wrong...and on the other side, if someone levels some criticism Allen's way, then they must think Allen is terrible and will always be awful.
Both can be true - he's not having the year that we expected and he definitely has some opportunity to get better...but at the same time he's the QB of a playoff team and he has definitely contributed to some of our wins. His passer rating has improved, along with his TD to INT ratio, and his DVOA is better this year than last. His completion % also increased significantly as well...so there is a lot to like, and I feel like it's borderline foolish to say he isn't any better this year.
On the other side...he's become a game Manager at this point in his early career. I hope we didn't draft up and pick a QB...to be a good game Manager. There's nothing wrong with with a QB like this, and teams can win games with good game managers, and teams can make playoffs with good game managers...just have to expect that there is a ceiling with this type of QB, if this ends up being what he is.
It is disheartening to see QB's who are in their first year perform statistically as good or better in 2019 than Allen. Makes me think that, in today's NFL, anyone can be at LEAST an Andy Dalton or David Carr with any sort of decent coaching, but I was expecting JA to be better than that. May still happen, just hasn't happen in 2019.
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Huh...Winston puts up gaudy numbers, but...WOW...as far as doing the two most important things for a QB to (besides wins), which is producing TD's and not turning the ball over... Allen is EASILY better than Winston this year.
- Winston - 31 total TD's generated (30 passing, 1 running), 29 turnovers (24 picks, 5 fumbles lost) - 1.1 : 1 TD to turnover ratio
- Allen - 27 total TD's generated (18 passing 9 running), 13 turnovers (9 picks, 4 fumbles lost) - 2.1 : 1 TD to turnover ratio
The one thing I feel that Winston has over Allen is the ability to throw for a lot of yards, if necessary. If I was behind by 21 points, I want Winston to have a shot at coming back. Either I do or I lose by 42 points from his turnovers. Allen hasn't shown me YET that, if the defense falters a bit and they fall behind by 21, that he can bring them back with his arm.
Give me the 2019 Allen over the 2019 Winston every time.
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A lot of you guys on here don't get the show...it's not supposed to be taken seriously. I just laugh at those types of opinions as the Bills keep winning games...
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8 minutes ago, Johnnycage46 said:
Fitzy threw for 300 yards against the Bills. So did Dak. Want to guess what happened? Yards don't matter. Wins do.
Totally agree! I would rather have a 10-6 / 11-5 team with a QB that hasn't thrown for 300 than a 6-10 team with a QB that has thrown for multiple.
Only speaking for myself, I feel like the "300 yards" thing comes from a place of comfort. That is, if we get into a shootout and the defense is being gashed for whatever reason, I don't feel like we have a QB (at least, at this point in his career) that could keep up and win that occasional 38-35 type of game, throwing for 350 yards.
If the defense keeps playing like it has, Allen is good enough to give them a chance to win every one of those games. If it doesn't, I do not feel we have the QB, at this stage of his career, that could keep up. Either way, the Bills have surpassed my expectations as a team this year
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People keep throwing smoke bombs left and right...how Tyrod was a vet and Allen is not, how the comparison is Tyrod's last 20 versus Allen's first 20...while all of that is not wrong, it's also missing the point.
If we take the bank of 20 games that Tyrod had, and we can come to the conclusion that it "wasn't good enough" or "not a good QB", and compare those to the bank of 20 games that Allen has, logically we have to draw the same conclusion...that RIGHT NOW Allen is not good enough, and that he is a far below average QB.
That doesn't mean that Allen can't improve, that doesn't mean that Allen may have not hit his ceiling yet in those 20 games and Tyrod had...just means that in the past 20 games, Allen has not played well and we need MORE from him. We hope that comes with more experience, but right now he's not good enough...
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1 hour ago, JROC INTEL said:
He had a great preseason, looked hungry
But was he also HUMBLE??
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On 11/14/2019 at 10:01 AM, MAJBobby said:
Nope. I have given up looking for a statement Dominating win. they AVG 19 points a game they are not going to move too far from that number.
To piggyback off of that...the Bills have shown us who they are with over half the season over. They are a team that scores about 19 points a game (and those were against bad teams), so either we believe this is kind of who they are, or we don't believe it and think they are going on some sort of scoring binge, even though there is very little evidence to support that thought.
It is probable that it will be another low scoring game, decided by 7 points or less.
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20 hours ago, GoBills808 said:
Unreliable. Much like the other takes on Allen recently.
What was the criticism of Allen in the offseason? Needs to up his completion % and clean up the short/underneath stuff. Worked on it in the offseason and did it.
Then through first 4 games it was: stop throwing INTs. Worked on it. Done.
Now it's 'he can't hit a deep ball'...all you want to do is complain about what isn't working without looking at what is. It's beyond repetitive, it's just lazy at this point.
Just my opinion of course, but I'm not sure if it's "progress" if he gets better in some areas and worse in others. He's cleaned up his short game, but gotten worse with the deep ball. He's increased his completion percentage, but he's gotten more careless with the ball (8 fumbles all of last year, 11 already this year).
Again, just expecting more in his second year - and I don't feel it's acceptable that for everything that he gets better at, there is something he has gotten worse at. Not a great trade-off.
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1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:
C'mon guys, look at whats happening here!
This young QB is being developed by a guy who thought Nathan Peterman should start ahead of him!!!
The entire Bills world wants to see Singletary get the ball more and what does this brainiac OC do? Has the young, inexperienced QB throw 41 times against a team that is #7 in passing yards allowed along with the #2 sacker in the league.
Meanwhile, "Motor" went 8 rushes for 42 yards against a supposed "stacked" defense with a 5.3 yards per carry average. In the first half Allen had 19 passes, Singletary 3 rushes. WTF!
Just pray that this team doesn't get behind in points over the next 7 games! Because this lame OC then forces the QB to carry the team by going pass happy and forgets the run game. He did it a lot last season too.
GREAT points. Coaching does not and should not escape criticism. Ultimately I feel like a great QB can overcome questionable coaching to at least be "average" (or an outlier like Aaron Rodgers, be excellent), but I am not sure if we have the leadership in place to get the best out of Allen. I also feel like they aren't THAT bad which is contributing to him being one of the worst in the league.
7 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:It would be a big jump if he even gets to average as the Bills are going to be playing teams that have much better defense then what they have played. Patience can only be for so long, if the Bills fail to make the playoffs by next season I doubt it matters. They will be starting over again.
If he plays even "average" after the Miami game and going forward, I would definitely consider it progress and a "win" for both Allen and the organization. Do I feel like it will happen based on past performance? Probably not, but it is certainly possible that he starts playing better.
The next seven games will be interesting. It's time that we learn something about this team - barely beating bad teams tells me nothing.
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2 hours ago, D. L. Hot-Flamethrower said:
So are you trading Josh Allen even up for any of the highlighted players?
Here's the thing...I don't know if I would or not...and I don't feel like that should be the right answer at this point in time! The "right" answer SHOULD be an unequivocal HECK NO by now...and for some of those players, I honestly don't know.
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8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:
I think he went from bad to mediocre, and yes we should be decently happy with that progress. See my post here:
Honest question - how are you determining, "mediocre"? He's bottom 5 in DVOA, bottom five in QBR, and has a passer rating of 81.6, behind the likes of Mason Rudolph, Gardner Minshew, Marcus Mariota, Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Kyle Allen, and Mitch Trubisky...and just ahead of Andy Daulton and Eli Manning.
I am serious and I may truly be missing it...what evidence is there that he has been an average quarterback this year?
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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:
Sure, if you use a single stat over the entirety of Josh Allen's career including the beginning of his rookie season when everyone agrees he was bad. Or you could look at how he's doing this year and see that he's at 213 YPG and trending up. While Tyrod Taylor decreased his YPG each year from 2015 to 2017. You could also see that Allen has improved in YPA, passer rating, completion percentage, TD percentage, INT percentage, ANY/A, and sack percentage from 2018 to 2019. But if you were a former employee of a dying newspaper you would probably go the other route.
You're not wrong, but unpack that for a moment. If all of that is true, and he is STILL, statistically, one of the worst QB's in the league this year...he went from brutally bad to just bad? And we want to celebrate that?
I expected more from the guy by now. If someone expected him to be one of the worst QB's in the league 9 games in, I would question what standard that they had for him...
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1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:
Allen would be even further down in QBR and DVOA rankings if other starting and backup QBs had gotten more snaps and qualified.But no one wants to hear that the guy they root for isn’t very good. If Allen played for the Dolphins he’d be getting ripped apart and they’d be laughing about him.
That's really it. I think most of us are not cheering for the dude to fail, I certainly am not. It stinks knowing that with even an "average" QB, would could be sitting at 7 or 8 wins right now.
In the meantime, I am going to keep hoping the guy improves and cheering for the Bills to win, but at the same time be extremely disappointed with his play so far...
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Burrow - Bengals have top pick, but I have leverage
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
True or not, I don't see where this kid has much leverage. What's he going to do, sit a year if the Bengals draft him? He's already an older college guy, that extra year isn't going to help. Then what? He comes out in the draft with Trevor Lawrence, and Burrow is not guaranteed of getting picked first anymore?