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cale

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    Draft Analysis - We're All Debi from Depew

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    On 4/28/2024 at 8:48 PM, hondo in seattle said:

     

    I haven't read the book but am familiar with the concept.   

     

    I don't think any individual fan can compete with a pro scouting department.  But I think the idea of a collective group of smart fans competing with a professional scouting department is interesting.  For example, could the fans on this website collectively make better picks than Beane and his staff???   

     

    I went to college 40 years ago and remember little, but I do remember this...  In a psych class, the professor handed out a list of random items and asked us to list the ones we would want with us if we were astronauts faced with an emergency situation in space.  Then we did the same exercise in 6 person groups.  I was cursed to be grouped with the most unscientific, illogical clowns in the class.  Or so I thought.  To my shock, our group list more closely resembled the official NASA list than my personal list.  Amazingly, every group list was better than any individual's list.  Collective intelligence is a remarkable thing.  

     

    But it has limits too - group think, for example.  

     

    So now I'm curious...  Do you think a large mafia group can draft better than Beane and his staff?  

     

     

    You know. I’m not sure. But I’d like to try. Say the 5th or 6th round. Every other year for 5 years. So we have a reasonable data set. Statistically. I think we’d do better.

    • Like (+1) 1

    Draft Analysis - We're All Debi from Depew

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    7 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

    Every blue moon, an intrepid crime podcaster breaks a criminal case.  But imagine your daughter was kidnapped and you had a binary choice: (A) You can have the FBI, with all its trained investigators, forensic scientists, labs, subpoena power, police connections, and other resources handle the investigation.  (B)  You can have Debi from Depew, who views herself as an investigative reporter because she podcasts from her mom’s basement, search for your daughter.  I don’t know about you, but I’d choose A.   

     

    It's part of fandom to stand by our unfounded opinions, call the GM a moron, and generally spout nonsense. But, if we want to be honest about it, we’re all - to varying degrees - Debi from Depew. 

     

    Fans are notoriously lousy at assessing draft picks.  Many of us criticized Beane when he picked Josh in the draft while few of us offered up flowers when he chose Milano.  And, look, talent evaluation is hard.  Go back and look at what sportswriters said five years ago about the draft.  Their hit rate isn’t high.  Even the analytic guys, armed with their algorithms and statistical analyses, aren’t good.  They told us that if Josh became a successful NFL QB, it would shake the very foundations of all math, science, and human knowledge. 

     

    I doubt if there’s anyone on this board who knows as much about scouting college players as Tyler Pratt who starts researching and evaluating players at 5:30 am each day and keeps at it until 8pm.  Tyler is an area scout for the Bills Personnel Department which includes 18 dedicated fulltime professionals, not including the admin folks, and is aided by 7 equally dedicated professionals in the Analytics & Football Research Department.  While none of us matches Pratt hours and expertise, we don’t hesitate to act like we’re smarter than Beane and his entire, fantastically resourced organization. 

     

    So when someone starts spouting that Beane is an idiot because he drafted a slow wideout, a lineman with short arms, and a guy who never played football before, I just yawn.  Debi from Depew doesn’t interest me.  Beane and his team have spent millions of dollars, studied thousands of hours of tape, conducted hundreds of interviews.  I just hope the Bills FBI (Foot Ball Investigative) unit is better than the FBI units at our rivals.  Time will tell.  But I trust Beane and his team of experts far more than Debi from Depew.

    Curious. Have you read the book “The Wisdom of Crowds” by James Surowiecki? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wisdom_of_Crowds

    If you’re upset about the WR room - BLAME DIGGS

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    14 hours ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

    Beane relied on Diggs and ignored the signs there was a problem there (kind of like he did w/ Gabe Davis). Beane chose to trade Diggs. Beane was in charge of the plan to replace him & Beane made the draft picks we made & passed on the WR we chose not to draft. Kind of hard to say Beane bears no responsibility with a straight face.

    This 👆🏾

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    Trying to be reasonable here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    In terms of burying the lede, what does it say about our franchise and coaching that another team can take a sucky WR and make him (very likely) a world beater. They had Kadarious Toney and made him serviceable. I didn't want Worthy. Another undersized, underperforming speedster.

    But it does bear the question of our strengths and weaknesses. Not least of which is either
    a) They have a better scouting department
    or
    b) We're not listening to our scouting department

    So yeah, I have concerns. KC has weaknesses too. But they seem to be able to cover them up and win championships.  They also have been picking at the bottom of each round of the draft for how many years now? So is that not an indictment on us?

    1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

    Bilichick was asked this exact question on why would Buffalo trade with the Chiefs.  Basically, what you said.  You do whats best for your team.  This point your not concerned with what any other organization is doing.  With Buffalo’s track record they have a plan and have earned the benefit to see what that plan is.  

    Belichik the draft genius speaks.

    Trying to be reasonable here

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    9 hours ago, NewEra said:

    As I said.  Simple minded way of thinking.  This is just ridiculous.  We should taken Worthy….. just so KC doesn’t get them….

     

    LOL.  Listen to yourself. Weak

    or...you call the other teams...below or even above and say KC trying to move up. Whatcu got?

    The Bills will be better in 2024 and everyone overreacted

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    On 3/13/2024 at 4:38 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

    This is an offseason I'm probably going to largely avoid the national media.  I just don't think they have a clue about what the Bills were, what they are, and what they will be.

     

    First of all, I love what Beane is doing as we move into the beginning of the new league year right now.  Release the old and expensive players and retain a few valuable pieces.  All of this in order to get our CAP situation in order moving into future season.  Meanwhile, he's accrued 11 total draft picks as ammunition to go get the guys that he wants.  We aren't drafting 11 guys and you can bet we'll be trading around in the draft to end up with between 7-9 players.  Hopefully 5 or 6 of them turn into SERIOUS contributors in 2024.

     

    Pretty sure all of these are what Beane is banking on.

     

    But honestly, even without the draft and at a snapshot moment in Free Agency when all the Bills have done is re-sign Jones, Epenesa and Lewis and signed Morrow and Hollins, I think the 2024 Buffalo Bills are set up to be a better team than in 2023.

     

    Coaching 

    First of all, the Bills revamped their coaching staff almost completely.  They got a lot younger, so some fresh perspectives are likely coming into the fold.  On top of that Joe Brady will have an ENTIRE offseason to build and implement his own offense in Buffalo rather than using Dorsey's offense.  Our OC and DC are young and energetic and infectious by reports from all the players and media.  And what's more, McDermott will still be able to help Babbich grow where he needs to while focusing on more aspects of the team than he was able to last year.

     

    Special Teams

    Bass had the worst year of his career last year, but was a consistent kicker before that.  I don't think he goes anywhere but up... and bringing Haack in to (possibly????) compete for the punting job might be a sign Beane & Co. believe holding is a notable part of the problem.  And maybe it was????  Remember how bad a holder Bojo was and what happened to the Packers kicking game when he went over there as the punter?  If Haack's our punter... he's not a great punter, but hopefully we don't punt a lot :flirt: Returners are a dime a dozen to me and we have potential returners in Shakir, Isabella and Hamler already on the roster.  I'm sure we'll bring someone else in, too.

     

    Offense

     

    OL-First of all, 4 out of 5 pieces on our OL will be back.  And the 1 new piece might end up being a familiar face who played a big role on the team last year.  The Bills clearly believe in McGovern as a Center, so I'll trust their judgment.  If Edwards is the LG next to him, I'm fine with that, too.  He was the starting Guard for the Super Bowl champions a few years ago so he has the talent and experience.  Alec Anderson seems like a dark horse to come in and start at that position, though.  We'll still very likely draft a young IOL, though.  Plenty of other young developmental OL talent to be excited about with the likes of Van Demark and Gourage.  and then we'll have what I believe will be one of the best right sides of an offensive line in the NFL with Torrence and Spencer Brown next year.  And Dawkins gonna be Dawkins.  As far as the IOL moves, I was listening to Daniel Jeremiah on his Move the Sticks podcast yesterday and he was saying how he spoke with Brandon Beane relatively recently about OL and Beane was talking about how it's becoming more and more important to have a more stout, strong IOL nowadays than more of an athletic IOL with what's happening on the defensive side with DTs.  I thought it was interesting and seems like that might be a reason for the Morse release and move for McGovern.

     

    QB-See above about Joe Brady.  Otherwise, not much needs to be said here.  Let's just hope that our freak QB stays healthy this year and doesn't get injuries that affects his throwing motion the way he did the last 2 seasons.  If he has to sit for a week or 2, I think we should all feel a little better with Trubisky than Kyle Allen

     

    WR-See above about Joe Brady.  I think Diggs was hurt in the 2nd half of the season.  I don't know what game that was where he was thrown to the ground, but I think he was playing hurt for awhile.  Yes, he's getting older, but Diggs is still a #1 WR.  He just needs more talent around him, and with Shakir's development last year, we'll likely see him as a bigger part of the offense.  I really think either Isabella or Hamler makes this roster.  I don't know which one, but one of them is going to be our 4th or 5th WR/gadget guy/ returner.  Mack Hollins feels like a roster bubble guy.  Justin Shorter might be the guy to replace Siran Neal as the gunner and will be sitting in the 5th or 6th WR spot.  So a lot depends on who we draft at WR.  And I think everyone knows we're drafting a WR in round 1 or 2.  Whoever it is, let's hope he's better than Gabe.  Long term I think odds are he will be.

     

    TE-A healthy Dawson Knox and a year 2 Dalton Kincaid with an entire offseason to work on his game????  Sign me up!!!

     

    RB-We all saw the weapon James Cook can be.  Dude just needs to spend plenty of time on the Jugs machine.  RBs are a dime a dozen... we'll find a couple to fill roles and be just fine.

     

    Defense

    admittedly D is our biggest worry.  But I think we have less to worry about than feared.


    DE-Groot was hampered by a foot injury most of last year, which was obvious.  Von was clearly still recovering from his ACL tear, which was obvious.  I expect both to be better in 2024.  I don't really understand those who think Von just all of the sudden sucks.  He had an ACL tear and tried coming back to play full time less than a year after it happened.  Most athletes say they take a couple years to feel like themselves after an ACL tear.  Just ask Tre White.  Epenesa re-signing is exciting!  If he takes another step in 2025 then our top 3 rotational edge rushers would be an upgrade from last year even with Floyd leaving.  I almost anticipate Lawson coming back, but even if he didn't and Jonathan and Kline were our 4th an 5th DEs, that would still be pretty solid depth.

     

    DT- Oliver and Jones is a lethal duo.  Just getting Jones back and healthy for a full season will be an upgrade.  And Jones has been pretty healthy for his career up until this past year.  I don't think he missed a regular season game in the previous 5-7 seasons.  But that's it for DTs other than Ankou, who frankly might make the team and just might be an upgrade on Settle/Ford/Phillips.  But we're going to draft at least one and acquire one... maybe post June 1st as our late offseason Floyd signing.  But it's all about Oliver and Jones, really.  We didn't have Daquan most of last season.  If we do in 2024, that's an upgrade.

     

    LB-Everything I said above about Daquan Jones and what the impact would be in getting him back is amplified with all of the same stuff for Milano.  Losing Milano last year was the most devastating thing that happened to our team.  He was absolutely unbelievable to start the year.  His injury isn't the kind of injury that lingers once he rehabs and heals, so I'd expect him to be back to himself.  Top that off with the now-known-commodity of Terrel Bernard and we might have the best starting duo of LBs in the league.  Throw in Dorian Williams, who I believe will be used as an X-factor in a league that is shifting more and more towards 3 LB alignments because of the heavier personnel and the LB Unit will already be better in 2024.

     

    CB-Our starting CBs are pretty much all studs.  Taron, Rasul and Benford are all really good to exceptional.  I really do think Elam still has a decent shot with this new coaching staff and potentially new (maybe only slightly) system that will utilize some more man principles.  I wouldn't sleep on him finding a way into a significant or even starting role.  When he does get on the field, he makes plays.  We'll draft a CB or 2.  We always do.  The difference will be that there will be room on the roster for them to actually make the team rather than get poached by other teams the way Alex Austin or Nick McLeod were.  And don't sleep on the 2 guys on our PS.  Ingram might make the team to play a critical backup role.

     

    S-Personnel-wise, this is likely the position we have to worry about the most.  But at the same time, Sean McDermott throughout his entire career has always turned other teams' trash into his treasure when it comes to the Safety position.  From the Eagles to the Panthers to the Bills, you can go and track all the safeties that have come through those teams and find quality to elite contributors.  It's actually pretty insane the way he does it.  I expect he does it again.  We'll likely get a guy in FA and draft a guy, but I'm really not gonna be shocked if our starting Safety tandem is Taylor Rapp and Cam Lewis.  Everyone is going to freak out if that happens.  I won't.  McDermott knows the safety position better than anyone.  I don't even think that's hyperbole.  We'll be good.

     

     

    Now... am I predicting Super Bowl???? Heck no!!!  Too many variables always come into play and the playoffs are one-and-done so you just never know.  However, the widespread national narrative and narrative among some on this board is that Buffalo's Super Bowl Window is closed and what we're seeing this offseason is the start of a rebuild.

     

    Not a rebuild folks,  We're re-tooling.  And the tools we'll have in 2024 will be sharper, shinier and more effective!!!  I can't wait to see who else we add in FA.  I can't wait to see who we draft, but outside of the positions we just need to bring in some bodies to fill them (RB, DT, & S), I'd feel pretty good about where we are even at this moment.  The great thing is that we still have additions coming.

     

    It's gonna be a great 2024 season!!!  Go Bills!!!

    I am not an expert on where we had talent and where we don't. All I know is that teams with far less talent are being way more successful built around one or two lynchpins.

     

    What i am concerned about is the psyche and temperament of this team. Turns out a lot of the folks on this board were correct in their "gut feeling" about something being off since the Cincinnati playoff game. The first KC playoff game knockout fight came down to a tactical error. I still believe that if we had won that game, we would be the ones dominating conversations and more importantly having confidence around every key game.

    At the time we chalked Cincinnati down to season fatigue, Damar and all that stuff. Turns out we were right. It was locker room chemistry. In spite of what the front office and coaching staff and the players kumbaya-ing said. We could see it last off season. In fact we could see it two offseasons ago. I'm glad McDermott had "a lot of good and open conversations" But the truth of the matter was McDermott didn't know how to manage it. The Tyler Dunne reporting fiasco galvanized the team. But not enough so that team was in sync enough to beat KC at home. You could see it. Everything looked fragmented. Our QB was willing the entire team to victory. It just wasn't enough. More importantly coaching doesn't trust lesser known players to do their job.

    But we were told we were wrong by just about everyone. I think the draft is important. But I want to see what mini camp looks like and then pre-season (yes, even preseason). This is not the Marv Levy Bills. Pre-season is a pretty accurate gauge of how this team will perform during the season. That's what the data or the book is on this team.


    It's gonna rough seas here for a bit. Let's see how this group weathers the storm. Our schedule is brutal.

    Next year, it’s our Lombardi.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Spags, Reid and Allen would have won in KC.
    Spags, Reid and Allen would have won in Buffalo

    McD squared and Mahomes in KC would have lost to Spags, Reid and Allen from Buffalo.

     

    I am not saying McD is evil or a bad person. He's just not that kind of coach. And to be fair Reid wasn't that kind of coach until he had Mahomes. But he would have done the same for Allen.

    Next year, it’s our Lombardi.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    4 hours ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

    We beat the winner in their house. Cmon now. 

    And they beat us in ours when it really mattered. That should have been so many ways in our favor. But it didn't. Should not have come down to that last field goal. Our D played hard until the last 10 or so minutes. But our players except for Josh come up small when it matters. 

    Is Mahomes at Brady Levels?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    On 2/1/2024 at 9:13 PM, zow2 said:

    The recent dynasties included an all-world QB and an all-world TE

     

    Brady had Gronk

    Mahomes has Kelce

     

    Allen - hopefully Kincaid becomes the centerpiece. He has the ability.

     

     


    Brady had Belichick

    Mahomes has Reid.

    • Like (+1) 1

    Next year, it’s our Lombardi.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    😂

    surely sir you jest…we are miles away from both those teams on the field this evening. Beginning with head coaches. Ours just doesn’t have the temperament. The only player we have is Josh Allen. He needs to come up big. But a lot of bit/role players came up big tonight on both teams. That’s coaching. Reid is such a strategically masterful coach. There’s a reason why he fired McDermott and now has Spags as his defensive coordinator.

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    Michael Lombardi on Pat Mcafee

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Michael Lombardi? As in this Michael Lombardi?


    https://www.inquirer.com/philly/super-bowl-lii/jason-kelce-eagles-parade-speech-philadelphia-super-bowl-mike-lombardi-doug-pederson-20180208.html

    "This past offseason, some clown named Mike Lombardi told him that he was the least-qualified head coach in the NFL," Kelce exclaimed, pointing at Pederson. "You saw a driven Doug Pederson, a man who went for it on fourth down … in the Super Bowl ,,, with a trick play. He wasn't playing just to go mediocre. He's playing for a Super Bowl."


    Puhleeze. I wouldn't trust him as far as I can throw him. I wouldn't be able to throw him very far.

    How do you explain Diggs invisibility act

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    I wouldn't be surprised if he is injured. But him refusing to talk or jetting out of the dressing room just exacerbates the situation. If you want to play the diva, you got to make plays like a diva. Also for the love of God, can we get a big WR who has sure hands. I mean Kincaid is kinda that. But a legitimate WR who can body up in the end zone. Also a speedster. Maybe Shakir is it. But we need someone who can make the other teams respect the quick, deep ball.

    • Thank you (+1) 1

    Divisional Playoffs - Chiefs at Bills - Post game thread

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    I was biting my tongue till the end of the season. But this drama began in the off season with Diggs/Dorsey/McD with “great communication.” I love Diggs. But if you’re gonna be a diva, step up and make the plays. As it is we’re bending over backwards to get him the ball. When Kincaid and even Shakir have been more productive per attempt.

     

    Our Von-Ted D line didn’t show up in the passing game tonight. The rest of our D are total ballers. Injuries caught up to us.

     

    Regardless, we have a total stud at QB. This team goes as he goes. I hope he gets a ring before it’s all over. And Buffalo of course.

    • Like (+1) 2
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    My theory: McDermott never liked Daboll's high flying offense, but had to go along with it

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    Let's assume for a moment you are right. Maybe he was traumatized by 13 seconds. An Andy Reid type coach would say what a great game. A McD would be terrified because neither D could stop the offenses. Gives some credence to wanting to play "complementary football" ie don't score so fast that you wear out your defense. I think he's more Parcells like in that approach.

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