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mike22nc

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Posts posted by mike22nc

  1. I’m a bit confused by some people in the thread considering PFF grades to be analytics. Analytics is, in general, the collection, calculation and interpretation of objective statistics. 
     

    PFF grades are not analytics in my opinion. They are more of a scouting tool, which are subjective and are an interpretation and evaluation of each play on the field. They surely can have value if the evaluation is done well. Do they have the full context when determining their grades? Of course not, just like many statistics don’t take every factor (or even most factors) into account.

     

    From what I see, the PFF grading is better and more accurate for certain positions than others. The offensive and defensive lines are particularly difficult to judge and I don’t place much store into the grades provided. Everyone is bringing up Oliver and I would need to jump on that bandwagon. The numbers backup what we’ve been watching all year, and having him outside the top 10 much less the top 50 of the interior lineman is egregious.

  2. Let’s just talk about the math. Regarding expected value of the throw, if Josh thought there was a greater than 42% chance of scoring the TD and he had no other options in the end zone, it was objectively correct to make the throw that he did.


    On my watch, at the time he let go it looked like it was more likely than not to result in a TD.

     

    The only argument against throwing that ball that would be acceptable is the argument that the odds of scoring were lower than 42%, but I didn’t see it that way. If you think the touchdown was more likely than that and still think he shouldn’t have thrown it, I’d like to know why.

  3. The Bills were at their best offensively when Daboll was calling the plays and trying to get a first down on every single play. 
     

    Brady is even MORE influenced by what McDermott wants on offense than Dorsey was. They just continue to play scared offensively and try to avoid negative plays. It’s a win for this coaching staff to get 3rd and 4. 
     

    Allen thrives when throwing in neutral situations. We are running too often on 1st and 2nd down and then saying “Josh go make a play” every 3rd down. It’s bad offensive philosophy when you have Josh Allen. It isn’t going to change as long as McDermott is the head coach.

     

    After saying all that, while I don’t think it optimizes the Bills chances, they CAN win this way with the way the defense is playing. 

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  4. 13 hours ago, peterpan said:

    One way to throw more passes is to complete more passes.  Was it 0-3 on the first drive? Missing wide open guys on third down and throwing picks don’t help.  
     

    playing well rewards itself with, more plays.

     

    we played poorly all night, and that’s a big reason why we threw so few passes. 

    Allen completed over 70% of his passes for more than 11 yards per attempt. He also didn’t start 0-3, the first possession he was 2/4. 
     

    We threw so few passes because…we decided to run on 59% of offensive snaps. 
     

    Obviously, when you’re running for 8 yards a pop on seemingly every play like we did against Dallas, you can’t argue with it. When you average 3.5 yards per rush and 11.3 yards per pass attempt, I have a HUGE problem with the run/pass ratio being 59/41. 
     

    Our biggest advantage in every game is our QB vs the oppositions QB. When we decide of our own volition to not take advantage of that, it’s an issue.

  5. 1 minute ago, Nator99 said:

    Why isn't anyone taking Josh Allen to task, it's like this message board is afraid they will get in trouble for ripping him. 

    He leads the NFL in completion percentage and touchdowns. That’s with the coaching staff trying to neuter him. Allen is not the problem, at all, like zero point zero percent.

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  6. 16 hours ago, ngbills said:

    Its about expectations. Are you happy with a playoff contender or do you want a championship. The question is - will it be easier or harder to win next year, the next, etc. With Josh Allen's age and contract plus other players age the time is now to win. So when the team is on track to "only" be fighting for a playoff spot it leads to disappointment. 

    Which teams have won a championship so far this year?

  7. Teller doesn’t really have anything to do with the discussion on Elam.

     

    However, the problem that I see is that this coaching staff prioritizes fundamentals over talent. So, since Jackson and Benford had a better handle on the defense and what is expected as a zone corner, they got more opportunities last year.
     

    This is all well and good when you are playing mediocre quarterbacks on mediocre offenses. The scheme dictates those games and we win easily. The downside is when we play teams with top-tier talent, we are less able to compete. We’re not prioritizing our most athletically gifted player at CB, which is the position that requires the most athleticism in football.

     

    If Elam looked like a bust when given an opportunity, I would understand. But, he has looked the part so far to me. I fully expect Elam to be the CB2 this season. If he’s not, it is an error IMO.

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  8. 10 hours ago, Airseven said:


    They’ve been to four straight AFC championships, against four different opponents, with two Super Bowls and a championship to show for it. They feature the best player in the game. Now if the Bengals get back to the Super Bowl this season, then it’s arguable the baton was passed. Regular season victories don’t carry enough weight here.


    Oh, I must have misunderstood. I thought we were talking about the current teams, not the ones from 3 and 4 years ago…

  9. I want to confirm something. We all understand that holding a double digit lead from 4 minutes left in the 3rd through all of the 4th until 0:25 left in the game and winning by 8 is winning easily in the NFL, yes? 
     

    The Bills were not aggressive, they didn’t take chances and they won easily. I love watching Allen light it up as much as the next guy, but it wasn’t necessary in this game.
     

    They dictated the game, didn’t let Chubb get going, dared Brissett to win it for the Browns and he couldn’t do it. 
     

    Is our cornerback situation currently pretty mediocre? Of course. Is that likely to be resolved this season? I think it will. Most if not all teams in the league have bigger areas of concern than the Bills. With 2 games in 5 days here, it makes sense to be cautious against a team you can beat with a C+ effort. That’s what this was.
     

     

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  10. 2 hours ago, Chaos said:

    Ignorance is bliss as they say. 


    Saying the most likely outcome of the Bills remaining division games is a 2-2 record is the most ignorant thing I’ve read in this thread. 3 out of 4 at home and they’ll be favored in all 4. 3-1 is probably the most likely, but 4-0 is much more likely than 2-2.


    This place is a cesspool whenever the team loses a couple games, it’s so typical and boring. Those that whine and moan about close losses with half the starting defense out shouldn’t be allowed to enjoy the wins. The best bellwether of future success is point differential, where the Bills are still a healthy #1 in the NFL. I expect the standings to reflect this by the end of the year.

  11. 21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

    It's not White.  It seems obvious to me that this Poyer's last season in Buffalo.  My bold and totally unsubstantiated prediction is that Taron Johnson will be a safety next season and White, Elam, and Benford will be the corners and slot corner, respectively.  The starting safeties will be Hyde, if he recovers, and either Johnson or Hamlin.   Ultimate flexibility - start five guys with cover skills and can tackle.  

     

    Are you suggesting there is a possibility Taron is moved from starting slot corner to reserve safety? That isn’t going to happen.

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  12. 2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

    It’s a troll thread but the point is there that the system they’ve set up may not really need to pay a MLB top-3 money.  They’ve got a tough decision to make.


    Since Hyde, Poyer and White are out, is the point also that they don’t need to pay a CB or S top money? 
     

    There is no point made, it’s a stupid troll thread, period.

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