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Zac

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Posts posted by Zac

  1. Sharp money in Vegas is coming in on the Packers.  Public betting super lopsided on the Bills.  Just seeing the narratives that the Bills are going to obliterate the Packers makes me uneasy.  Rodgers covers as an underdog the majority of the time and his back is against the wall.  The Packers defense is also built to stop the pass and has the #1 defense in yards per game.  They are also a relatively efficient red zone defense.  
     

    Bills big blowout wins have been against teams that are built to run and struggle to pass, with the exception of the Rams.  Difference between Packers and Rams are Rams are horrifically inefficient in the red zone, while the Packers are more efficient than the Bills.  
     

    Essentially I’m saying the Packers have the capability to shorten this game, with a strong pass defense, good run game and capable QB play. The Bills will also be incentivized to run the ball as it’s Green Bay’s biggest weakness.  
     

    counter argument to this of course is they lost to the Jets by 17. my counter point is if you look at the box score the Jets should have never won by 17.  Blocked punt for a TD.  Awful passing numbers.  We also don’t have a home run threat on the ground like Breece Hall

     

    I suspect this to be low scoring, and the Packers to keep it within 7-10.   Bills win though.  Something like 24-14. 
     

    To be clear I don’t think there’s any way the Bills lose, nor do I think it will “feel” close. I just think the 10.5 is a suckers bet and all the fans saying they want to tease it to 17 or 21 points are nuts.  

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  2. Would have much preferred the Chargers. Afraid this one is going to be close and the Bills have not done well in close games this year. 

    - Both teams are top 10 in EPA for offense and defense
    - 1 and 2 in AFC point differential 
    - since 2003 road dogs are 13-6 against the spread in matchups against divisional opponents. 
    - Belichick 8-0 ATS as a road dog coming off a loss

    obviously trends don’t guaranty future performance but there’s a lot pointing to this being a very close game. Have to hope Allen’s experience carries the day. McDermott also can’t go conservative.

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  3. 5 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

     

    You don't think the signings on OL and WR will improve this offense??  C'mon! We had practice squad level talent as starters last year. I don't care where we rank anywhere but in the standings.

     

     

    He didn’t say any of that. He literally said our talent is below average. Which implies bottom 16 in NFL. Which is very reasonably true.   And you asked if he had been in a coma   

  4. 5 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

    I floated the Amari Cooper scenario a few weeks ago after Mack got traded and they weren’t featuring cooper in the offense. Gruden is ripe. Beane needs to take advantage. I think a 3rd or 4th would do it. 

     

     

    I floated this out there too.  If they lose another game there season is basically done.  He gets a huge raise next year too, I believe.  Just depends on if he is in their long term plans.

  5. 2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

    I don't know about a "spree", but I think there could be significant additions at WR, OT, and OG.

     

    If Stefon Diggs hits the market, that'd be a no-brainer.  Add in a Daryl Williams and Shaq Mason and you're probably done with 1st-wave guys.

     

    Agree on Diggs.  Do you think there's any chance he makes it to FA.  Certainly seems like a guy you have to find a way to retain no matter what.  

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