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WNYFAN1

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    2023 MVP: Lamar will win it with 15 fewer TDs than Josh Allen (end of season talk pg 75+)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    20 hours ago, mrags said:

    How so? He’s on pace to throw for his 2nd highest yards in a single season. He’s in pace for 32 passing TDs (his 4th highest and only 5 away from his highest) and 13 rushing TDs. He will likely exceed the 2nd highest TDs scored this season by double digits. And he’s done all this while having quite a few down weeks in the middle of the season. Of things continue like they have the last few games he should exceed all of his career highs in every category. If you are looking at his high number of ints as to why he’s undeserving he’s not much more than other league leaders in passing. While sitting at 14 is high, Tua, Lawrence, Hurts have 10, Mahomes and Love have 11. While he’s clearly in the league lead in turnovers, he’s also clearly in the lead of total TDs. Even Hurts will all the praise he gets only has 31 total TDs where as Allen has 35. Point being, if Allen wins out these last 4 games and even looks close to how he has the last few weeks, he’ll be in the top consideration for it. 

    "He’s on pace to throw for his 2nd highest yards in a single season." Who in the heck would care about this stat???

    What more can Allen do?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    57 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

    This feels like it gets overhyped to me…tua is 2 turnovers behind josh with 11 less total tds in one less game played.  Hurts is two turnovers behind also in one less game played. 
     

    the guy with the best total td numbers when you factor in turnovers is Dak and everyone seems to think he’s a turnover machine 😂 

     

    I think a lot of this is they only really tell you when someone is leading a category so nobody knows the context… there’s a few supposedly great qbs that are right in line with josh in turnovers 

    Sure, there's context and my comment was obviously a bit sarcastic. But it is literally the answer to the op's question.

    McDermott a finalist for COTY

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    2 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:


    Because this team dealt with things that were also outside of expectations, and still finished 13-3.  Obviously didn’t win the Super Bowl, but there were other unexpected factors at play too.

    Every team "dealt with things that were also outside of expectations"

    Seriously disappointed in this board at how many have turned on Allen

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    11 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

    If Allen doesn't play MVP caliber football the Bills don't win. It's totally unreasonable imo to expect him to play perfect football game in and game out

     

    There isn't another QB in the league that is required to carry his offensive workload....he has to be the RB and make up for a bad oline and questionable pass catchers. He's the entire offense.

    Agreed. But...

     

    When a team invests a six-year, 258 million dollar contract in one player, well that will necessarily prohibit them from making other investments in the team. There's only x dollars to go around.

     

    And no, he's not the "entire offense". Take away Diggs, how's the offense?

    Bills offense compared to 2020 by the numbers, and they may shock you.

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:


    You’re in here desperately trying to sell this agenda that last years team was better in regular season while admitting this post seasons team was definitely better.

     

    The ridiculousness of that is astounding even for you.  I mean who cares about splitting hairs over regular season?  You do because you can’t do it over the post season, yet the only thing that matters is the post season.  And this years post season team was dominant while last years was not.  
     

    Love that you and everyone were whining we squandered a SB this year while last years team was out classed and didn’t belong in the SB.  Then have audacity to try and get some LAMP points about splitting hairs over a regular season comparison?  Lmao, that’s weak even for you.


     

    "yet the only thing that matters is the post season"

     

    Manage more than 6 points vs the worst team in the league and that game against KC is in Buffalo.

    Josh Allen 2022 season verdict... OC & DC let him down: 64.5% comp %, 51 TDs, 18 TOs, 97.9 Passer Rating, 313 YPG (offseason assessments page 46 on)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

    The numbers without context sure can lie.

     

    You conveniently left out his rushing numbers?  And the difference in QB ratings could easily be explained by the much worse weather and the general decline in QB ratings for the NFL this year as fans returned to the stands.

     

    And leaving out Allen's post season performance and focusing only on his regular season makes no sense when trying to decide whether he regressed or not. In fact it seems like you left those numbers out to bolster your argument that he did regress.

     

     

    Sure, the numbers could be different due to the weather.

     

    Rushing regular season stats:

     

    2020 - 421 yrds, 4.1 avg/carry, 8tds, 4 fumbles

    2021 - 763 yrds, 6.3 avg/carry, 9tds, 5 fumbles

     

    So yeah, improvement as a runner in the regular season. But do we have to also put that in context? Lack of an actual running game, bad weather, etc?

     

    Bottom line, he was #2 in the NFL regular season in 2020 in QBR. He was #6 in 2021. That's a drop-off, relative to the rest of the league.

     

    Again, these are regular season comparisons. Postseason was outstanding.

     

     

     

    Josh Allen 2022 season verdict... OC & DC let him down: 64.5% comp %, 51 TDs, 18 TOs, 97.9 Passer Rating, 313 YPG (offseason assessments page 46 on)

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    13 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

    I agree.  The talk that Allen took a step back this season is nonsense.  You could point to the much worse weather conditions he played in this year as the main reason for the slight drop in his numbers.  And in the three most important games of the season: 2nd NE game and the NE & KC playoff games, Allen was spectacular.  Those high pressure, big time game performances demonstrated to me that Allen actually played better this season then last season - especially when it counted most.

     

     

    Disagree. During the entirety of the regular season it was absolutely a step back compared with the 2020 regular season. He was a legit MVP candidate in 2020 and received votes. He dropped off in nearly every metric in 2021 and, unsurprisingly, the Bills regular season record was significantly worse than 2020.

     

    2020 - 4,544 yrds, 7.9avg, 69.2% completion, 37 td, 10 int, 76.6 QBR, 107.2 RT

     

    2021- 4,407 yrds, 6.8avg, 63.3% completion, 36 td, 15 int, 60.6 QBR, 92.2 RT

     

    The numbers don't lie.

     

    Amazing postseason performance and something to build on. That being said, a better regular season performance (obviously not just him), and this team is home for the entirety of the playoffs.

    • Disagree 1
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    Are we overplaying this team's chances had we won?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    50 minutes ago, ToGoGo said:

    It might seem insane to say in January 2022, but it may have been a long-term blessing in disguise. If we would have won the SB this year, we may have rested on our laurels.

     

    NOW? Allen's about to go crazy in the off-season again. Coming off a legendary performance. He could make another step as QB, perhaps a higher level than what anyone has seen before. And Beane and McDermott are about to take serious looks in the mirror and realize they also need to level up. 

     

    This loss may have meant the difference between one and done SB, and future dynasty.

    So he did make a massive improvement over these two postseason games relative to last season, but the regular season was a statistical step back
     

    2020 - 4,544 yrds, 7.9avg, 69.2% completion, 37 td, 10 int, 76.6 QBR, 107.2 RT

     

    2021- 4,407 yrds, 6.8avg, 63.3% completion, 36 td, 15 int, 60.6 QBR, 92.2 RT

     

    Still great numbers, but it's definitely a regression relative to the 2020 regular season.

     

    • Like (+1) 1

    The saddest part of this loss

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    The defense being number 1 was a mirage. This is an excellent read: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-buffalo-bills-got-the-least-bang-for-their-schedules-buck-this-season/

     

     

    "It turns out that teams that face a slate of bad QBs tend to win more games. While that’s not surprising, it’s comforting to verify that our assumptions about the importance of QB play are sound. If we build a simple model using data from 2006 through Week 17 of 2021 to predict a team’s regular-season win percentage and use Total Quarterback Rating of the opponent as the only predictor, we can generate an estimate of what a team’s win percentage should be.5 We can then use the model to identify teams that have underperformed relative to the strength of their opposing QB schedule.
     

    Using this approach, the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year is the Buffalo Bills. With the regular season nearly over, in 2021 the Bills faced the worst collection of quarterbacks by Total QBR since at least 2006, our first year with QBR data. Yet despite having the great fortune to face a historically weak set of opposing QBs, Buffalo didn’t turn its advantage into wins at the rate we would expect. Given its opponent QBR of 25.4 through Week 17, its win percentage of 62.5 is 15.8 percentage points lower than expected — the biggest dropoff among teams that have clinched playoff spots."

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