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beebe

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Everything posted by beebe

  1. are the chiefs going to come out nowhere to steal the AFC #1 seed? they've now won four straight games and coming off a bye week. here's the rest of their schedule along with projected point spreads: vs denver (9 pt fav) vs las vegas (9 pt fav) at la chargers (3 pt fav) vs pittsburgh (8 pt fav) at cincinnati (3 pt fav) at denver (6 pt fav) it's not crazy to think they'll run the table against this schedule and finish 13-4. the ravens (three losses) have a brutal remaining schedule and should drop at least two more. the titans (four losses) are an injured mess and will almost surely drop a game or two coming in. the bills and pats (four losses each) play each other - and will probably split - and the bills also travel to tampa. it very easily could be KC getting the 1 seed.
  2. Umm, take it from me, a Chiefs fan. It absolutely does not crack the door open for the Chiefs. Look at Buffalo's next four games: Dolphins, Jags, Jets, Colts. They'll win all four. That's 8-2. That's one fewer loss than the Chiefs have today! And the Chiefs will play road games vs the Titans and Raiders with a tough game vs the Packers in between. Despite having one fewer loss than the Ravens, I think the Bills remain the favorite to earn the #1 seed. Baltimore still has six games left vs AFC North teams and will almost surely drop two of them.
  3. I don't think Andy has a history of 'tailing off.' He endured personal tragedy at the end of an otherwise brilliant Eagles tenure and had a tough QB situation where guys like Kolb and Foles were thrown into the mix. His Chiefs tenure so far has been a winning season every season, and one of the fastest coaches in history to 100 wins with a given team, and now coming off B2B Super Bowl appearances. I do think the situation with his son last year was an unwanted distraction before the Super Bowl, and I think it continues to linger in the back of his mind even now. But I don't think we're seeing a massive erosion in quality here (KC's offense still ranks #1 in DVOA and is on an epic pace in terms of points per drive; better than any year before it.) Few teams would be above .500 against the schedule KC has played so far. Five new offensive line starters — that was always going to be a process. The defense, as bad as it has been, would undoubtedly look better if they hadn't played arguably the top four offenses in the AFC to open the year. Fact is, the Bills, Browns, Ravens and Chargers are going to make lots of defenses look stupid. Particularly one that's been missing some of its best pieces.
  4. The Chiefs have had their fair share of schedule luck through the years, while the Bills essentially had to compete for one of two Wild Card spots every year for nearly two decades due to NE's dominance. So I'm not complaining. But...we've reached the point where schedule matters just as much as team ability. Buffalo's schedule looked historically easy when it came out. That was when the Texans were presumed to have Watson at QB and when the Dolphins seemed competent. Now the Texans are a dumpster fire while the Dolphins are lost at sea. It is absurd that the Bills and Chiefs are competing for playoff positioning with schedules this drastically different. I thought the Chiefs were the best team in the AFC in preseason (I no longer think that, I think the Bills are the best), and yet, I never at any point gave the Chiefs a real chance of winning the #1 seed. The Bills' schedule, matched with their talent, was going to be impossible to topple. As an NFL fan, not just a Chiefs fan, I think that sucks. While 2-3 is an underachieve for the Chiefs, few teams who open with Browns, at Ravens, Chargers, at Eagles, Bills were going to start 4-1 or 5-0. As bad as the Chiefs have been this year, I am near certain they would have entered the Buffalo game at 4-0 had schedules been reversed. I think it's time for the NFL to re-think the four-team division structure. In fact, I'd scrap divisions entirely. Each AFC team should play each other once per year round robin style — alternating home and away each year — and then play three games per year vs NFC teams (18-game schedule, one fewer NFLx game, add in an extra bye week.) Isn't that better? Are Colts fans really clamoring to play two games every year vs the Jaguars? Would the Bills' playoff drought have ever reached what it was had they not been dealt two auto losses every year vs the Pats dynasty? Is it fun for a fanbase to travel to the same city four straight years as the Bills did when they played at KC in '08, '09, '10, '11? Everything about the NFL's approach to scheduling is stupid and inequitable and always has been. No idea what compelled me to go on a scheduling rant, sorry about that!
  5. Chiefs fan here. Congrats on the win. I am not at all surprised Buffalo beat KC. The Bills are simply the better, more complete team right now, and are possibly a better version of the Chiefs team that won the Super Bowl two years ago. Buffalo has been building toward this for a few years now. And with this cakewalk schedule — this is not a knock, the Bills are outperforming expectations in their last four games by every measure regardless — it is allowing them to save their best stuff for when it matters. I have little doubt the Bills were strategically hiding stuff the last two weeks as they steamrolled overmatched opponents. And in the end, everything the Bills did worked on the biggest stage against the Chiefs. "KC is too talented to stay down for long." That's what everybody keeps saying. And while I tend to agree with that, the schedule outside of this week's game at Washington and the MNF game vs the Giants is unrelenting hell. At Titans. Vs Packers. At Chargers. Vs Cowboys. Two games against the Raiders. Two games against the Broncos. The "easy" games late are a home date with the Steelers and a late-season trip to Cincinnati. The Chiefs look exhausted. They are taking every team's best shot, and every team — Buffalo included — is showing them stuff they've never seen before. Meanwhile, the Bills are likely to coast to the #1 seed in the AFC (the Ravens have the most realistic chance to compete with them for it.) I think the Bills have built a team that matches up well with KC. I thought that last year too. As traumatized as Buffalo fans were last year after the regular season defeat vs KC, I viewed it as a positive. The Chiefs "dominated" the game, and yet the possession count was super low, and as a result the Bills were able to stay close enough to give themselves a chance. A late Chiefs fumble that they got back nearly proved the difference. The playoff game, I felt the Bills were in trouble as soon as I saw the ref assignments. The Vinovich crew doesn't throw flags. That played right into the Chiefs' hands. Oppositely, when I saw the Cheffers crew was doing the SNF game, I felt like it played into Buffalo's hands—as they are the anti-Vinovich crew. (As it turns out, they were terrible both ways.) Anyway, I was at the game and had a few Buffalo friends with me. It was one of the most miserable losses I've ever endured as a fan in that stadium. Between the beat down, the weather delay, the Chiefs falling to 2-3, the Bills looking like clear AFC favorites, on and on — it was not fun. But I don't think the Chiefs are paper tigers just yet. They'll get a little healthier on D, the offense hopefully will get a few leads and won't have to press as much, and in the end we just might have an AFC title game rematch, but in a different stadium. Good luck!
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