Ecmic82
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Posts posted by Ecmic82
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15 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:
If bills win next week and bengals lose/steelers lose..
Would the bills clinch a playoff spot?
As colts/texans play week 18 so one team there will be out
No, the Broncos are lurking at 7-7 (with the head to head win) and a very easy closing schedule. IMO they’re the biggest threat right now to keeping a 10-7 Bills team out of the playoffs.
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12 minutes ago, stevestojan said:
Ok, so who am I rooting for today?
i assume (but am often wrong) we want:
Falcons over Colts
Texans over browns? (Not sure on this one)
Bucs over Jags
Cowboys over the fish of course
Pats over Broncos.
And tomorrow Raiders over Chiefs.
i think that’s right; just need help confirming Texans/Browns. A Houston win puts them both at 9-6, but a Browns win drops the Texans pretty much out of the picture.
it’s convoluted but a Browns win gets the Bills a lot closer to the playoffs as a 10-7 team than would a Texans win.You basically want at least 4 wild card contenders (including the Broncos and Steelers) to get to 8 losses. For the Browns, that’s not likely. It’s a definite possibility for the Texans.
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Fourth time this year a minus 3 turnover team won a game. First time this year a minus 3 turnover team won a game while also committing more penalty yardage.
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1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:
If the Bills lose the game against Miami and need a Wildcard spot with a 10-7 record, you are correct about the Browns.
In the 10-7 Bills Wildcard scenario, what people are not seeing is the Bills want the Browns to win and take Seed #5.
The Bills will not get the 5th seed.
Where it gets tricky is finding who needs to win and lose for the Bills to get one of the remaining seeds.
That will be clearer after this week's games.
I’m one of those rooting for the Browns to win their final few games (or at least their games against the Texans and Bengals). Yes, the Bills can go 3-0 in the final three weeks and essentially write their own fate, but it’s the NFL and crazy sh!t happens in the NFL and I’d like to afford this post-Dorsey team some grace in proving who they ultimately can be.
give the Broncos and Steelers a loss at some point, and give 2 of the Texans, Colts, Jaguars, and Bengals another two losses, and the Bills will have that grace. It’s not an inconceivable ask.
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I do believe this is the only scenario in which the Bills win out but miss the playoffs.
a shorthand for the Bills to go 10-7 and still make the playoffs is:
Denver and Pittsburgh lose 1 more game, and
2 of Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Houston, and Jacksonville lose 2 more games.
(other scenarios exist, including paths where the Browns lose 3 games, but are somewhat less probable 😉)
if you’d like to mitigate the emotional toll of the worst-case scenario, you can get north of 1000-1 odds on the 13 leg parlay.
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The main takeaway was their effectiveness in the red zone. They’ve been pretty bad all year, and I’d guess it’s one of the few common threads that tie together all their losses.
And I don’t think it’s simply a matter of variance that they had a good game in the red zone. They’ve obviously shifted philosophy to incorporate the run more (overall, but also in the red zone) and while sometimes not extremely effective from a pure “yardage-on-a-particular-play” perspective, I do have hope that their successes are at least partially due to the finally-real THREAT of a run in the most congested part of the field, which might open up their uncreative red zone passing game.
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He’s had three weeks to reincorporate as a practice participant after eleven months of what I’m sure was often a physically and mentally deleterious process.
Not a long time, perhaps especially because he’s mentally reaching for the extremely high bar of performance expectation that he’s cleared throughout his career.I have zero concern that there’s any ill intent for not playing. So I’m not concerned that he isn’t playing.
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On 11/13/2022 at 5:02 PM, JerseyBills said:
We should've taken that safety of just had Josh run around the EZ and throw it away for 3 downs and take the Safety on the 4th.
Not a popular opinion, but I agree. The first thing you HAVE to do in that situation is attempt to draw an Offside. defense is in a situation that a bite is more likely. Take the delay of game penalty if you have to. Half the distance to the goal from the two inch line. Who cares.
safety at ~20 seconds worst case. F**k it, I’d put Allen in shotgun and, depending on his read of defense, give him an option of a draw or scramble-right-and-eventually-bomb out of bounds. Nothing in-play.it’s Monday Morning quarterbacking, I don’t care. Sneak is conventional wisdom and not a “bad” call, but with this specific line and this quarterback in this specific situation, maybe not the best strategy in my opinion. Fumbled handoff is the only reasonably possible catastrophic play within the realm of possible calls-and-outcomes there.
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There’s no way this team should be bottom half of the league in red zone efficiency, and play-calling needs to be better there.
The Bills were effective running the ball against the Chiefs, and I’m not sure there’s a good reason why you throw the ball three straight plays from the Chiefs’ three yard line, on a drive you dominated by running the ball.This is my only concern from the game, because it’s a recurring one.
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The defining metric of “what the coach would achieve with an average roster” necessarily precludes what the coach has IMPACTED on his actual rosters.
For example, I’d guess PFF accounts for each Bills’ defensive player’s performance in their algorithm, but don’t account for the Bills’ coaching staff’s impact on each defensive player’s performance (because, how the hell could that be quantified?). And, then, what the f*ck is the point?
Ad revenue? Yeah, for ad revenue.
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19 hours ago, K-9 said:
Good take. Some people here are only focused on Dallas as the team we jumped in front of, but that’s myopic at best. These GMs aren’t shy about telling each other who’s calling who with what offers. Beane may or may not have been concerned with Dallas, but there were other teams on the phone with the Ravens inquiring about pick 23 I guarantee it. And I think your hunch about the Titans is spot on.
The Titans taking a CB at 34 is more evidence that the Bills might’ve traded up in order to prevent the Titans from stealing Elam away.
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I think the Titans could’ve been the third team vying for one of the two cornerbacks. Would explain the Chiefs move, and the Titans’ subsequent trade back following the Bills pick. The Titans have two 4th round picks, neither better than the Bills though.
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Yeah I’ll echo that hitting a guy in stride who has his man beat by 20 yards is probably not the best situational throw. Better to toss it up and let the receiver make an easy catch.
I think what happened to Diggs there is it was an abnormal play for him - how often do you get to camp under a bomb with no defenders near? - so when he caught it he had no idea where the defense was. His reaction actually looked like a preparation to get hit or to evaded a defender. It ended up looking odd because he eventually realized no one was actually near him.
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Hopefully a “convert” dynamic within the locker room will have a positive impact on vax hesitancy.
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8 minutes ago, Mojo44 said:
Recent polling, for what it’s worth, indicates that 65% of whites, 61% of Hispanics and 55% of African-Americans are in favor of vaccinations. According to the report the numbers continue to go up. Access remains an issue but it does seem to be improving. I do believe time is another major variable. It is also noted that minorities, particularly blacks, are somewhat hesitant because of historical issues and hopefully this will change in time. Interestingly, And for what it’s worth, 30% of white evangelical Christians are against the vaccinations.
I’d also guess the trend line in favor of COVID vaccination is positive, as has been the case for every single other vaccine in modern history.
Skepticism and fear will always predate acceptance and widespread use. Other posters reading “rightness” of position at this point in time is completely ahistorical.
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Teams are something like 34% on 3rd and more-than-10 against the Bills.
Take out the Jets and Broncos, and teams are over 40% on 3rd and more-than-10 against Buffalo.
that seems... not good. That’s league average across all third downs.
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Has there been any word from the league as to why they didn’t think this was a review-worthy play until after the Bills were forced to finesse protocol and allow the ref crew time to get their heads out of their asses?
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2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:
I honestly can’t recall them stopping one in a long time...Do you recall what game it was this year?
Also, do you know what the record was in 2019 on giving up 2 pt conversions?
You can’t remember it because it was a play in which the opposing team literally wasn’t trying to score: Kyler Murray’s kneel-down.take that “attempt” out of the equation, and the Bills’ opponents are 11 for 12 on two-point conversions the last two years.
Not good.
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You’re right, I think, but you’re in the wrong timeline right.
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8 minutes ago, elijah said:
https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/212842-pre-combine-receiver-rankings/
Call it LAMP if you want too, but no, that's just who I am as a poster here. I don't post often, and when I do, it's typically quality content. I was fortunate enough to have an opportunity and write with Cover 1 for awhile too, but I've recently gotten too busy to keep up with that. Sorry if I was coming off as conceited, was just introducing my post.
Bro it’s a fine thread.-
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1 hour ago, TheElectricCompany said:
Not sure there is any other QB + WR combo that would be appealing. Does Ciara sit in the stands to watch Russel Wilson and Metcalf? That might make me consider it.
What could be reasonably expected from Wilson + Metcalf + the rest of the Bills’ offense? Odds-on the highest-scoring offense in NFL history?Wouldn’t do the trade, because my view is there are more satisfying aspects of sport than a be-all, end-all, win-at-any-cost mentality (and Allen emphatically checks those boxes as a player worth rooting for) but Wilson and Metcalf would make the Bills Super Bowl favorites *this* year and I’m willing to argue that where ever, whenever.
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"Alright guys you've got two options. You can quarantine and fight the Bills next week, or you can fight COVID. What'll it be?"
"Where's the nearest practice field, coach?"
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You know you're good when teams are getting COVID to duck playing you 🤷♂️
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27 minutes ago, Protocal69 said:
I feel the opposite. When you throw your hands up thats a sign that you were holding but now you are trying to convince someone ( Ref) that you were not because you know it could be viewed like you are/were
I was joking. It’s probably the most sure sign that a defender knows he did something he wasn’t supposed to.
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The somewhat probable scenario where Bills win out and miss the playoffs
in The Stadium Wall
Posted · Edited by Ecmic82
I think there’s five scenarios if the Bills win. Losses by either…
Pitt and Cin
Pitt and Jax
Jax and Cin
Pitt and Hou and Indy
Cin and Hou and Indy