OrangeBills
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Posts posted by OrangeBills
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7 minutes ago, Billzgobowlin said:
One yard did not make a difference on that play anyways
Did suck guys to the line to defend Run I guess.
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Rush the passer!
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The Patriots have played the easiest schedule in NFL history, by a lot, per my chatbot.
and got 15 flags called on the Bills
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On 11/28/2025 at 12:56 PM, The Frankish Reich said:
The problem is the explanatory graph with the vertical Trump line. The one that shows a long-existing trend continuing unabated.
As I said, just stop after making the point that Amy's graph is of the wrong thing.
Sorry, this is just stupid.
Forrest Gump stuff
Be better, if you care. If not that’s fine too
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1 minute ago, 5ths the charm said:
Lots of holding on punts. Lack of focus
Its how the NFL manages games
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4 hours ago, Homelander said:
Just LOL
so dumb
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44 minutes ago, teef said:
i'm not smart enough to have a solution to something like this, but killing people with interest certainly isn't the solution. there's just a lock on the market right now. the older generation aren't leaving their home at a similar rate in the past, people are in no rush to buy due to rates. when houses do come on the market, there's still bidding wars, (i think no as bad) and the over pay happens. maybe lowering the rates will get people to become comfortable with buying and selling again, opening the market and lowering prices. more homes on the market, the less bidding, the lower the price, etc. this isn't just a biden issue. it's just to easy to place blame that way.
You switched from Autos to Homes there, but yes, I agree with you…lower rates will probably (counter-intuitively) lower housing prices due to the increased supply effect.
Autos won’t have that same effect, but payments are so stretched that I don’t think lower rates leads to materially higher prices.
The Biden Admin will have cost a generation (5 years worth of people) a whole bunch of opportunity but we have to do it.
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19 minutes ago, teef said:
that administration did us zero favors, but that not the way to right the ship.
By all means, what would be your solution then?
Lower rates? By all means, call Mr. Fed who currently hates America (really, the President, but hurting Americans — TRUFLATION has US Inflation at 2.4% and the Owners Equivalent Rent lag effect SHOULD be understood by our fearless Fed leaders but apparently they are stupid)
Lower prices? Hmmm, that genie is out of the bottle unless we want a Depression to lower prices back down? Not good for anybody.
So, aside from Time Machine and remove mail-in ballots from the 2020 election and COVID hysteria nonsense…what should we do now? The only real answer is longer loan duration. Your response is that’s not good for Consumers, but your answer should really be we should not have elected Democrats. We ARE trying to solve for this disastrous Biden Administration.
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2 hours ago, teef said:
no car loan should be more than 5 years. you can dictate to the dealer what you want, so there shouldn't be any reason to ever go over...unless you can't afford the car.
and how will this news effect you directly. i'm not saying it's not news but it's of low importance to the daily lives of people it won't change how you and i live. on top of that, don't act like an overly concerned citizen. how many times have i seen you jump into a thread just to state, "who cares". you don't care about this.
Perhaps you missed the prior 4 year term of President Biden when prices, particularly Auto prices, and rates, the financing part, all skyrocketed like they never have in our Nation’s history.
People are desperate to get cars, so they’ll extend out as long as possible to get the monthly payment down to a level they can afford.
THIS IS THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION’S FAULT
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To add some light to this discussion, I did the auto-lineup function on my ESPN Fantasy lineup thing and it subbed out Josh Allen for some other guy
I really worked over how to handle this...it was just computer math, so I decided to let it ride figuring I might be providing some reverse-karma
in the end, Josh had a historic game, which my Fantasy team missed out on...I'll prob still win that...and I didn't hex the Bills chances...
Psyched to have AI be wrong this time...
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Can’t fault the administration from trying
No less than Torsten Slok from Apollo is out with an extremely damning report, perhaps the worst indictment yet of the Biden Administration
In 2010, the median age of a US home buyer was 39
Today it is 59
goodnight
worst government in the history of the world, arguably, to topple this Civilization
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2 hours ago, BillsFanNC said:
Teef:
I'd be happy to tag you, but I can't. Blame Simon and The King.
And not only was the election not stolen, it was the most secure election in US history!!!
😂
I mean how else would you expect an election with the majority of votes counted by unsecured mail in ballot (the first time in US history) with a candidate who campaigned from his basement to turn out? 81 million votes for the victor. An all time record! And the MOST SECURE!
😂
15 million more than the great Obama!!
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Just some final clarifications...first of all, NOONE is saying that a 50 year Mortgage is a great idea, or better than a 30-year loan. We're not comparing it to a lower duration loan, we're comparing it having to alternatively pay high rents (which is just as thrown away as Interest cost) or not be able to afford a home.
Secondly, Home Ownership is a great investment when IRs are trending down, as they have for the last 40 years. Not as good as when they are going up, from an asset appreciation standpoint, as they have been lately (already owning your home when rates are soaring is AWESOME, however). But that's not really why you buy a home in the first place, it's a tangential benefit...
Thirdly, there are various intangible benefits to owning a home vs renting...in general, you're going to find better neighborhoods and schools owning vs. renting, so that may drive some new homeowners to tackle. the 50-year plan for now, with plans to refi when the rates collapse during The Great Trump Recession.
Lastly, and I thought I'd made this point already about this being the worst homebuying market because BOTH rates AND prices are high (as opposed the 1970s when rates were atrocious, but prices were rock-bottom)...but let me explain how I KNOW this is the worst housing market...
A couple of years ago, my bank Chase found itself so upside down in it's loan with me (2.87% Fixed for 25 years) that they actually offered me the following: cut my payment in half each month and pay twice, 1st and the 15th, and it will cut my duration from 25 to 21.5 years...
This is truly unprecedented...Banks HAVE offered to allow payments "every two weeks" but the faster amortization comes from the fact that you're making an extra payment every year (26 bi-weekly payments vs. 12 monthly) every year...in this case, the bank is giving me the benefit of bi-weekly amortization which just means they're incrementally getting some of their money back faster (every two weeks)...when I spoke to the Mortgage Banker he was like, yeah, they've never done this so it's a good deal. They are effectively adjusting their amortization schedule for me because the prior 4 years absolutely destroyed this rate/price relationship.
So, I don't think it's worth the indignation about the 50-year...nobody is saying it's a "great deal"...SOME people would maybe decide it's the "best deal" so they can get in a house with their kids (if anyone is still doing that) and get the party started, and hopefully refi the loan in a couple years at a bit of cost but good deal long-term.
The reality is that your vote matters
Cheers.
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2 minutes ago, teef said:
a 15 year car loan is the most absurd thing that i can think of. for the president of the us to actually tweet that out is disgusting. there's no other group that he's appealing here other than the extremely stupid, and no...it just can't be attributed to "trump just says things". we're all hoping to fix the economy and these are the suggestions.
so...is @Wolfgang ######ed? the guy just laughs at everything and thinks getting rid of more illegals is going to fix the cost of housing problem. something is off.
Oh stop, where were you when Biden said dumb things every day (at least, the days he was working), and where have you been when our Gov't has subsidized and bastardized prices across a million things in our society from College to Housing to Healthcare (ACA subsidies, anyone?)
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4 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:
You sound like a mortgage lender, maybe even a subprime one 😀
No, I work in Finance but not Mortgages or Commercial Lending at all
I'm just trying to help people understand what is going on out there, so that somewhat sensible solutions to a very serious problem are addressed in practical terms, not this rampant Anti-Trump reactionary stuff...like I said, people mocked his 100 year bond suggestion, but that looks pretty smart now (if you know Finance)
The 15-year Auto loan is just stupid and can be attributed to Trump says things
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3 minutes ago, teef said:
mortgages aren't complicated so there's no need to make it so. you keep claiming you'll have some equity over 7 years of a 50 year mortgage. how much equity do you think you'll have gained. as i mentioned earlier, the majority of that equity will be from your down payment. you'll be getting your money back with a slight bit more, but how much do you pay in interest to make that tiny bit of equity? and where do you plan on going after 7 years of a 50 year mortgage?
i'm not holding on it's or they're stupid. this is dumb. for the president to present this as a solution is irresponsible. on top of that, he packaged it with a 15 year car loan? we should be insulted with the idea of a 15 year car loan. this isn't political...it's financial.
You keep saying "how much interest would I have paid?"...Um, you'd have paid less interest than the Montly rent you paid that was just thrown away.
Your monthly rental payment will have included all the factors of home ownership - the owner's financing costs, Insurance, taxes, etc etc
So while the long-term interest question/point is valid (in terms of 30yr vs. 50yr., it's not relevant over a considered 7-10 year own/rent decision
I would assume if my monthly 50-year payment was $2,000 that I would be amortizing maybe $300/month, which over 7 years is $25,200 of Equity built up (not assuming down payment or asset appreciation)...
If I put down 5% down on a $500,000 home, and the asset appreciated 10% and that was my loan payment, then I'm looking at $100,000 of Equity 7 years later, and I got to live in a better place, etc etc.
You guys are freaking out about the 3-5% of people who would live in the same house for 50 years, who by the way could pre-pay to over come this stuff.
No sensible
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3 minutes ago, teef said:
if someone really only plans on being in a home 7-10 years, just pay a bit more a month and take out a 30 year mortgage. build more equity and payout less in interest. if any financial planner or accountant gave my kids advice to take on a 50 year mortgage, i'd have to find that person and attack them.
Fine, but you are getting indignant without factoring all the variables involved here
Like location and quality of the home/apt/condo...if the Lease payment is similar to a 30-year mortgage (again, these are USUALLY similar) and the 50-year is $200-$300 less AND I build some Equity over 7 years, maybe that's what I'd opt to do to also live in a better place? Especially if they bring down the frictional costs associated with buying & selling (another variable)
The fact is during the first term the Trump Admin wanted to sell 50 and 100 year Treasuries, and everyone called them dumb...which was stupid, because it wasn't long till we were borrowing TRILLIONS at durations in the 30 day to 2 year time-frame, creating financial pressures in our system
So, let's hold off on the "they're stupid" stuff
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15 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:
Who knows what he's thinking. The mortgage thing is apparently coming from Bill Pulte, and wouldn't Pulte Homes love it.
When I see the projected payments most of them are assuming the new 50 year mortgage rate would be equivalent to the 30 year. That's ridiculous unless you are directly or indirectly subsidizing the 50 year lenders. The yield curve is a thing after all.
I mean, the current spread between the 20-year Treasure and 30-year Treasury is a couple basis points (4.68% vs. 4.70%)
How much more would you think Banks would demand for a 50-year over a 30-year (when they know the average home ownership period is 7-10 years, which BTW makes a 30-year mortgage not smart but so be it)
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10 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:
So ... the free market can create 50 year loans. There's no law against it.
If the Trump Administration throws its support behind them, what does that mean?
I can't think of any way that could be effective unless they use Fannie and Freddie to prop up that new market. And as I said, that creates risk to the government (read: the taxpayer).
It is a terrible idea, offset only by the much worse reality facing the country here.
Is it possible that the Trump admin is talking about 15 year Auto loans and 50 year mortgages to prove a point to the Fed that rates need to be materially lower?
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On 11/9/2025 at 7:33 PM, The Frankish Reich said:
I thought this was a joke when I first read it. 50 year mortgages, what could go wrong?
I see some reddit posters have already done the math. Example:
A 50 year mortgage doesn't actually bring down the cost of a home by that much.
Consider a 430k home. 30 year FRM would be 6%. 50 year FRM would be 6.5% to account for the longer term.
Monthly payment on 30 year is 2578 and on the 50 year is 2423. Total interest paid on the 30 year is $498k and on the 50 year is $1024k.
Got that? The 50 year mortgage would "save" the buyer about $150/month, at the cost of paying half a million more bucks over the length of the loan.
Possibilities:
A. He really is that stupid.
B. He really thinks you are that stupid.
C. Both A & B.
There is no pre-payment penalty, you can increase your monthly payment or refinance when rates eventually go lower (which, since you think Trump is an idiot you must be factoring in)
Personally, I think we're in a Recession - actually we've been in a Recession for 3-4 years just with Trillions of deficit-spending masking that...so we should see lower interest rates up ahead so borrowers could refi at lower rates and shorter terms
This is all just trying to fix the calamity the prior Administration has created in the price/rates balance that will have shut out a generation or two from home ownership, which remains one of the largest wealth creation assets for Americans.
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1 hour ago, teef said:
i think the idea that owning with give you the same cash flow as renting isn't exactly true. with a 50 yr mortgage it will be closer, but there's always unexpected costs to owning a home. on top of that, i can't imagine many 50 year mortgages will be new build. buying a new home on a 50 year mortgage just shows that you can't afford the home. that the entire point of a 50 year mortgage...it allows you to buy something that you can't afford in the first place, so not a good idea.
next is the building of equity. how long will it actually start to take to build any real equity on a 50 year mortgage? 20-25 years? how much have you paid over interest in that time. guess what? it's far more that any equity you walk away with. i could put that money to far better use that that small amount of equity i've built. i was paying large additions to principal on my mortgage, so i refinanced a few years ago at 10 years at 3.125. i'll be saving 70-75k in interest alone. there's so much money invested into a 50 year mortgage that you'll just never get back. it's an awful thing to propose.
this is nothing but a cover up for high housing costs. it doesn't actually fix anything, and it could lead to high home prices in the future from what i'm reading. quite frankly the idea is insulting, and the back lash is appropriate. it's just a bad idea. let's not even get into the idea of a 15 year car load. i'd like my country not to turn into a giant rent a center. i just don't know how anyone at all thinks these are good ideas.
no one is saying this is a “good idea”it’s a bad idea in response to many, many bad decisions by the prior administration that have led to higher prices and higher rates
The cash flows at the borrower level would be about even (mortgage payment vs lease) only a portion (small up front to be sure) would go to Equity (say $500 of $2,000 to start, still better than tossing that money away in a lease, but doesn’t sound like people are gonna agree with this cause they hate the Trump admin)
that’s fine, but there is just no question that the CPI supports the idea that all inflation is just Biden’s fault and here’s why we’re here talking about 50 year mortgages
the WSJ ran an article assessing this about the why I did yesterdays only they assume a 20% down payment on a $400k house which is dumb cause if you have $80,000 you’re not doing this but anyways
i wouldnt do it, I did a 25 year, but here’s where we are
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40 minutes ago, milfandcookies said:
bro if you are in a 50 year mortgage you aren’t building any equity for 20 years.
Like any of these loans you pay interest big time for years before the principle is touched, a 50 year mortgage makes that worsealso, “they can refinance later” is a strange endorsement of a loan concept. Basically acknowledging it’s a stupid idea
1) every mortgage in the last 3 years was made thinking it would be refi'd later
2) I'm not saying these are "great" loans...they are effectively Leases where we build Equity at a slower rate
3) There are other factors at play in Real Estate, like location, property type, etc
37 minutes ago, Joe Ferguson forever said:Mortgage rates are still near historic lows over the last 50 years https://www.bankrate.com/mortgages/historical-mortgage-rates/. Building material costs have skyrocketed, in part due to tariffs. When it cost more to buy new builds, existing housing becomes more valuable. Builders started offering mortgage rate subsidies for buyers with few takers. They just don't have the scratch. Wages have not kept up with costs.
These are Biden-covered glasses comments, and again operating in a vacuum
You can't just look at "Mortgage Rates" without looking at the Price function. The fact is when rates were very high, prices were much, much lower than they are today (obviously adjusted for inflation)
The cost of building materials SKY-ROCKETED for 3 years, tariffs have had very little to do with it. Inventories generally run 3-6 months so those tariff increases would have just started hitting.
You are correct that the problem is price.
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23 minutes ago, teef said:
what equity can you possibly build? how long will new buyers be paying for pmi? who knows if people will be in the position to refinance moving forward? why take on the cost of a new hot water tank, yard up keep, new roof, etc. all of this while paying property and school taxes. unless i'm missing something, it would be much better cash flow wise to just rent.
I think you answered many of your own questions by asking other questions, but I'll try here. And I'll say, I haven't seen a payment schedule for a 50 year proposed mortgage in a while...
You wouldn't build a ton of Equity right away due to Mortgage payment tables, true, but you would build "some" as opposed to zero. I assume generally a mortgage payment of 50 years would resemble what a rent payment would be, so Cash Flow is about the same.
If you're buying new construction, let's hope you wouldn't face major capital improvements like furnace, roof and hot water for some time...property and school taxes would necessarily be wrapped up in any rent payment anyway.
But you WILL be building Equity and after 20 years of "renting" you'd be glad you did...notice too the Trump admin is looking to bring down the frictional costs associated with buying/selling a house, etc
So if you bought a $400,000 house with 5% down ($20,000), I'd say after 7 years you'd have $52,000 of Equity built up (I used 7/50 years = 14% of the term and discounted that pretty heavily to an 8% Equity build, so $400,000 * 0.08 = $32,000 addt'l Equity
So if you sold and moved, you'd get your deposit back and maybe make a little bit...none of this takes into account that the asset is likely a better asset in a better place, on average, than a rental property.
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On 11/9/2025 at 8:41 AM, milfandcookies said:
The Trump administration is working on a plan to introduce this.
Who benefits from 50 year mortgage?
People need to start contemplating things not in a vacuum, but within the totality of circumstances...like I understand our tribal, blame-driven society likes to think about 4-year intervals (blame the current President mentality), but this is likely just a simple response to the problem of Housing Affordability
The bottom line is, there have been four calamitous things that have taken place that have put buying a home out of reach in just the last 5 years:
1) the radical dislocation of the Housing Market due to a Covid response that should never have happened, both Demand shifts and Production
2) the fastest ever spike in interest rates (and thus Mortgage rates) as a result of the Biden Administration's wreckless spending (BBB, IRA and everything else we're still learning about
3) the corresponding spike in Property Taxes (home values way up, mill rates flat to up = higher taxes (mine are up ~$2500 in five years, or about 20%)
4) all of this has led to a reduction in New Homes being built, and Existing Home Sales in the gutter (annualized low rate for 3 years, just incredible)
So, the Trump administration is likely taking a practical look at how people should be buying homes...the reality is that the Biden Administrations' policies DESTROYED the relationship between income and Housing costs...so to lower the monthly payments to levels people can afford, at these high prices and high rates, you extend the loan duration (in this case, to 50 years - remember, 30 year mortgages have not existed forever: AI - 30-year mortgages became common in the 1960s after being authorized by Congress in 1948 for new construction and 1954 for existing homes.
The borrower can refinance to more reasonable (shorter duration, lower rates) in the future, but the key is they'll start building Equity on these Lease terms, which is really what a 50-year mortgage is, as opposed to just throwing that money away.
12/7/25 GAMEDAY Bills vs Bengals 1:00 pm 2nd Half Thread
in The Stadium Wall
Posted
Beyond the sticks even, maybe
Last season's MVP can't throw a real pass apparently