[The Rooney Rule (still) isn’t working?]

12 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

 

1- 13% right now, which is low statistically speaking, but statistics are somewhat lacking as you still have to have sound arguments for which of the other 87% are inferior to xMinority candidate. It was much higher just a couple years ago, but guys like Vance Joseph and Steve Wilks were fired due to being horrible HC's.

 

2- I disagree that that proves that premise, but I don't want to argue Kap and derail this.

 

3-  I mean, that seems like a stretch. Matt Rhule was a linebacker, Ron Rivera a defensive coach, Joe Judge a STer, and Mike McCarthy a TE. I would imagine (without doing the grunt work) that there probably isn't a huge majority of former QB's at HC in the league now.

 

4- But what standard indicates they're better suited for that? Bienemy doesn't call plays in KC (which was true of Pederson and Nagy as well, with mixed results so far, I would say), and Leftwhich just coached a QB to the first 30td/30int season in NFL history (not that I blame him for that, but he was also the OC in Arizona last year... yikes). Also, Bienemy did get interviewed by the Giants and the Panthers. I'm not sure what differentiates these two from the ones you named, and if they were all purple we wouldn't be having this conversation. That last sentence I can agree on, but i don't think it has anything to do with race. 

 

 

I'm fine having a healthy discussion and being willing to see all the perspectives, but I'm not pro-feelings when it comes to things such as this... This is a big deal and I think it needs to be engaged with varifiable proofs and evidence in order to truly be handled. It's not good enough that it feels like there is disparity, it needs to be proved in order to be attacked and handled. 

 

 

But isn't this just the point? Is there a player that that universally is accepted as a good QB prospect who never got a fair shake at it? A guy being asked to switch positions could be because of racism, or it could be because he's just not that good... Nobody asked Patrick Mahomes to switch positions because his arm talent (though erratic coming out) was seen as such a plus side that he was worth developing. If a white Cornerback is too slow to play in the NFL and gets switched to Safety or something like that, is it racist, or is it practical?

 

You've also got on your list guys who did play, and are now in the hall of fame. Warren Moon, Steve McNair, Doug Williams (not HOF, but SB winning). I guess it just doesn't seem like a list composed of guys who were deprived a chance because of their skin color. 

 

1 it’s not that 87% of coaches are inferior to minority candidates but maybe 25-40% of coaches are.  Freddie kitchens and pat schumur were just head coaches...

On 3, i was off base saying former qbs, but there’s definitely been a push over the past few years to find offensive minded coach “the next Sean Mcvay.” There’s a lack of minority offensive positions coaches as well resulting in a bad pipeline of candidates

 

4- those two are apart of high powered offenses in the nfl.  Rhule comes from college in a conference that plays air raid against some of the worst defenses in the county, also a college coach’s success has a lot to do with recurring than coaching which isn’t applicable to the nfl.  Saban

Learned the hard way. Judge was most recently NE WR coach,  their WR struggled all year even with a first round WR.  While the 2 minorities I listed are not drastically better than the guys I named  but there’s nothing to point to, to say those guys deserve to be head coaches over minorities.

 

if we were all purple we wouldn’t be having this convo but we’re not all purple.... even if we were we would still have a conversation as to why some of these guys are coaches over others.  I would say Roman and the Viks OC deserve HC jobs over some current coaches.

[What % did Josh improve from yr1 to yr2?]

23 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Actually, tipped balls can have a lot to do with pressure and penetration; YAC is also about route running, separation, and ability of receivers; throw aways have just as much to do with pressure and receivers not being open. You can choose to believe all of it is because of Allen's weaknesses. that's your right. I'll choose recognize that, while Allen has his areas he needs to improve on, there are other areas of performance on offense that affect his production as well.

We have differing opinions and I do not put all of the offensive problems on Allen. I’m not afraid to point out his flaws or that the offense is ran through the Qb so they get the most of the praise and blame.

 

 I’m not here to change your mind but I would argue YAC is play design and timing more than WR skill.  For example screens and slants are designed and intended to get YAC while a curl route is not.  Yes there can be bad coverage or exceptional play by a WR to get YAC on routes it’s not designed to.

 

Tip balls normally come from a lack of pressure and penetration, not from it. Defenders normally get there hands up when they can’t get to the Qb. You’re right those items impact throwaways as well, but watching the games I feel the undesigned rollouts us to pressure versus stepping up caused a lot of throw ways.

 

It’s early in Allen’s career but he has a lot to work on.  I wish he was further ahead of where he is as a passer.  Hopefully he can get his deep ball accuracy back, develop better pocket poise, and consistency with his footwork.

 

 

 

[The Rooney Rule (still) isn’t working?]

51 minutes ago, whatdrought said:

Almost made a thread on this earlier, but wasn’t sure how it would go over. 

 

The flak now is is that the rule isn’t resaulting in many minorities being hired. Technically speaking, something like 20% of the open positions have been filled with a minority candidate this year (Rivera in WSH) which is not all that much lower than the 30% minority makeup of the US. 

 

The problem, and the argument that Stephen A. and others don’t seem to want to engage regarding this, is that you can’t debate the Rooney rule and the lack of minority coaches in a racial vaccum. You have to present actual examples of minority coaches who are more deserving of the position being passed over. That’s kinda hard to do, I think. 

 

 

The problem, in my humble opinion, is that any time you look at anything but qualifications for a job or position, you break the system. This anger about minorities not being respresented has to intrinsically include an accusation that an owners racism is worth more to them than winning. That’s a hard pill to swallow.

 

Looking at one year in isolation as a baseline is misguided.  You have to look at all 32 coaching jobs and realize it’s not a this year issue but an accumulative issue.

 

secondly, without going to far into it, the Kapernick settlements shows the nfl and owners are more concerned with  along money not winning, as the two are not correlated.  In the vein of making money the nfl will put political/racial issues over winning.

 

Thirdly,  the nfl is moving to hiring offensive minded coaches that former QBs,  there’s not many minority candidates with that background due to the history around the position.  

 

Lastly, I would say Eric Bienemy and Byron Leftwitch come to mind as minority coaching candidates that I would higher over Rhule, zac Taylor, and the Pats wr coach hired for the giants, yet they didn’t get interviews. So yes it should be about looking purely at qualifications, but unfortunately it’s not and the Rooney rule is here to give qualified minorities a chance.  Looking at how many coaches are fired yearly and how many teams underperform, clearly the best coaching candidates are not being hired.

 

 

[What % did Josh improve from yr1 to yr2?]

9 hours ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

Completion % up 6 points (52.8 - 58.8)
TD% up 1.2 % (3.1 - 4.3)
INT% down 1.8% (3.8 - 2)
TD/INT ratio up from 1:1 to 5:2
Adjudsted Y/A up 1.3 (5.4 - 6.7)
QB rating up 17.4 (67.9 - 85.3)

Generated the 6th most TDs in the NFL

 

All while having:

 

The highest percentage of passes dropped

The 3rd most passes thrown away

The 14th most passes tipped or batted down

Being blitzed the 2nd most of any QB

Tied for 1st on the least amount of time on blitzes, from snap to pressure/pass

Being 10th in least amount of separation by receivers at the point of the catch

Being 4th in the least amount of YAC by his receivers per attempt

Being 6th in the least amount of YAC by his receivers per completion

 

No other QB in the NFL comes close to ranking that low across all those categories. Just in the percentage of dropped passes, spikes, throw aways, and tipped/batted passes alone - at least 5% more of Allen's passes are dropped, spiked, thrown away, or tipped/batted than any other playoff QB, other than Brady. All the other QBs are between 8% and 10%.

 

Josh Allen                   15%
Tom Brady                   13%
Aaron Rodgers           10%
Kirk Cousins               10%
Patrick Mahomes      10%
Lamar Jackson          10%
Jimmy Garoppolo      9%
Russell Wilson            9%
Carson Wentz             9%
Deshaun Watson        9%
Ryan Tannehill            9%
Drew Brees                  8%

 

You could also see the improvement in his decision making, short to intermediate accuracy, moving through his progressions, etc.

 

He has a long way to go; however, he has improved a lot to this point. 

 

The narrative your pushing compared to the stats are a bit misleading.  Tipped balls have a lot to do with the quarterback and their throwing angles and release.  YAC is more on the quarterback’s ball placement  and the play design than the Wr.  The bills YAC would go up if Allen improves his accuracy on screens.  The amount of throw ways for Allen is driven by the fact he rolls out of the pocket too early instead of steppping up.  Once he rolls out he’s eliminates half the field and typical left with one receiver in outlet/triple coverage. Daboll and the wrs could do a better job at having wrs run routes going from the left side of the field to the right with different depth levels... 

 

that said he’s improved but still far from a franchise qb.  Last year I would say he was a 65/100 this year a 75/100.  He needs to do better at stepping up in the pocket, identifying blitzes pre snap,  know his hot reads and accurately hitting them.  Right now he’s very boom or bust and more bust than boom.

[Why analytics does not always make sense for coaches to follow]

You’re taking a very simplistic approach to analytics.  In your coin flip example, yes it take a lot tosses to get to 50%, but what if you drill down and say coins flipped by a left handed person results in this %, layer on left handed person flipping a quarter vs a dime, and or the surface you’re flipping on, etc. Analytics/modeling is only as good as the variables you factor in.  So yes using basic statistics isn’t helpful, but using statistics that are based on scenarios that are close or identical to your situation is very helpful.

[Can we attract elite WRs here with Josh]

Money talks.  I would also say it depends on their play style obj would hate it here, but Landry or Keenan Allen would probably have a 100 catches on this roster.  Allen can’t hit the deep ball to save his life,  but he’s pretty good at hitting crossing routes and slants.  Guys who are good in space and after the catch would do well.  Honestly that whole draft class besides Lamar has looked bad outside a handful of games between them.

[When can we start to admit that the process failed?]

I’m not overreacting to the loss today.  Law of averages was bound to catch up with the bills.  When you play a lot of close games you eventually lose some.  

 

That at being said, this board severely overrates the job Beane has done. Beane inherited a roster that went to the playoffs his first year and an extra first round pick.  Beane then traded or cut most of that playoff roster and traded the extra pick for Allen, edmunds and a ton of cap penalties.  Brought in star and Murphy who are meh, traded a third for KB, and has a below average draft  record.  The only player adding value from the previous draft is Knox singeltary, and outside the first rounders from 2018 there’s no players seeing playing time outside of ST.  McD has done a great job coaching up the roster he has,  the problem is the lack of talent on the roster.