SouthernBills
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Posts posted by SouthernBills
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1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:
Every QB can go through periods of being "wildly inaccurate" in a game. Hell watching tonight's game Rogers missed a bunch of throws in the 2nd quarter.
My observation was that when it was still a game Allen was playing well. When the D gave up an eight & a half minute, 84 yard drive in the 4th quarter to put the Eagles up by 18 the Offense, including Allen, fell apart in response.
How about when we were gifted a miffed punt?
Just now, Dr.Sack said:I’ll take Allen over any other QB in the 2018 Draft.
That is an excellent point. I think the model should honestly be drafting three QBs a year until you find your guy.
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5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
You specifically brought up sample size and regression to the mean. Why?
Allen and the whole team had a tough day today. The kid is getting it though. You don’t perform as well as he has this season in fourth quarters and suck, as you put it. That’s why I think they need to take the chains off and let him play from the opening whistle.
We'll have to agree to disagree. What I see is a player that does not have the necessary intangibles to be the long-term answer. You think he does, as do many others, and I hope I am wrong and you are absolutely right.
I'll be the first to publicly eat my crow.
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5 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
You brought up sample size, not me. So why did you bring it up? Sample of what? How big a size? And you have no idea how QBR is calculated (because it’s a proprietary formula with ESPN) but you use it to definitively declare a player sucks.
Why don’t you just admit you have no clue? You don’t like Allen, fine. Quit pretending you have data to somehow prove what is just your opinion.
That is unfair, sir. I personally declared he sucked. Their made up stats just back up my entrenched opinion.
I kid. I understand it's a flawed metric. I'm just as frustrated as anyone else. I don't like JA as a QB but I would be absolutely delighted to be proven a complete moron.
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1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:
So are you suggesting we move on from Allen? Maybe bench him and see if Barkley got better since the last time he started in the NFL? Or should we make a play for Andy Dalton? He's thrown for over 300 yards a whole bunch of times this season. Hell he even had a 400 yard, NO INT game to his credit at Seattle!
Or do you favor drafting a QB next year in the 1st or 2nd round?
IMO Allen has already shown enough to make me think he's the guy. At worst he's shown enough to earn at MINIMUM three full seasons to prove whether he is or isn't the guy. I get not going all in on a guy for 5 - 6 years to see if he'll pan out. But given what Allen has already shown he will get 3 seasons to lift his game to the next level. if he doesn't get that time then the Bills front office will be guilty of gross football negligence.
What concerns me is that the same problems everyone saw in college are the same problems that have not been fixed. I agree. The timframe is unfair to him. But I'm not sure the issues he has are the ones that are easily or even possibly corrected. His issues seem to be very intrinsic to who he has always been as a player.
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2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
Yes I do. Regresses up if below the mean and down if above. Why do you ask?
Oh, by the way, since you love QBR, can you tell us how the formula works? Or why it has been the subject of criticism?
As for sample size, has Allen had a big enough sample size? What are you sampling? Have you done a power analysis?
You sure you want to start down this road?
Of course I haven't done a power analysis of Josh Allen. Is this a joke? I leave it to people who's job it is to do so. I don't know the damndest thing about my washing machine's energy efficiency. I believe the sticker they put on the damn thing when I bought it. Maybe I'm a mark?
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1 minute ago, oldmanfan said:
Well first of all I guarantee I understand numbers and stats better than you. Second, if you would actually read, I said he has to balance his performance over 4 quarters. Finally, a young QB that excels in the fourth quarter of games does not suck. If he did he wouldn’t perform that well when the heat is on.
For such an astute stats man, you must understand that everything regresses to the mean given a proper sample size.
1 minute ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:Hmmm?
Do you want a board full of homers? I don't get it.
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1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:
Critique all you want. Just empathizing with your plight, fan to fan. The simple fact is you can choose to watch or not, but that’s about it. The team will do what they’re going to do. If it upsets you that much, maybe it’s time to take a break. I wouldn’t bother watching something that I found so annoying, but that’s just me.
You must not care as much as I do. Am I going to B word and complain when I think fixable things are not being fixed, yes. Will I allow it to influence my day to day life? Of course not. I thought message boards were for this sort of thing. Maybe I'm in the wrong place.
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Just now, oldmanfan said:
So you use QBR as your benchmark, his going into today was the highest one in the 4th quarter in the league, and all of a sudden it doesn’t mean anything. OK.
I don't think you understand how numbers work. His 30 out of 32 ranking includes his 4th quarters. That means his first three quarters have been so bad it brings his overall rating to 30 of 32. Got it?
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4 minutes ago, SCBills said:
You said he needs to play in chaos? How? He’s not out there doing wild stuff anymore.
Hes solidly accurate from 0-20 and needs to work on his deep ball.
His decision making has been much better since NE.
Hes deadly in the redzone.
He’s clearly growing as a QB, and he needs to get better, but you do realize Sam and Baker are struggling and we don’t have anything resembling the weapons Mahomes/Watson have.
Were 5-2 and you want to throw around advanced stats like we don’t watch the games. At least the Jets/Pats stat-skewing games in a, so far, 7 game season, can help you sound somewhat knowledgeable.... for now.
30 of 32. I watch the games too, friendo. I'll be your Huckleberry. What about JA do you love?
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2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:
It’s one thing to not have skeptical eyes - I think most of the more football-experienced crowd on the board feels jury’s still out on Josh - development this season, still some good, some bad, and a bunch of things he has to improve if he’s gonna be The Man for us. It’s another thing to make posts that suggest you’re watching the Bills games with perhaps less-than-full-brain-capacity. Josh has made much better decisions with the football as far as ball security goes as the season has gone on since the Patriots game. Conditions pretty well sucked today, in case you didn’t know, Wentz has a total of 2 fumbles in the previous 6 games, and he fumbled today.
Bottom line though, it’s pretty much impossible to have no problem with the general direction of the football team but to have a problem with, as you say, the lynchpin to the whole operation. The thing is, many of the best QB playing today either did not look that good in their 2nd season or, did not play in their second season. So we have to see how Allen progresses through the season - does he continue to develop or does he take a step back?
I appreciate the measured response. I will, however, disagree with not being able to be on board with the team as a whole and off the boat with Josh. I think that part of modern football is coaches and front offices becoming married to the guy they picked. I like much of the coaching staff. I like most of the team. I think in this day and age it becomes everyone is going down with the ship. He is objectively one of the worst QBs in football according to the stats. They are trying to make it work. Daboll didn't forget how to play offense. I believe he has a QB he is forced to play that can't do what he's asking him to.
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3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:
He needs to balance his performance over 4 quarters. Today was a bad day for the team overall. But going into today he had the highest 4th quarter QBR in the league. Apparently you like the QBR so read that again. Guys like that don’t suck.
Guys that are 30 out of 32 do suck.
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1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:
Well, they’re not putting in Barkley. Have to watch it play out or watch another team. It’s always an option.
Why don't you watch a HS team? I can say whatever the hell I want and still watch the team. Watching a player that is ranked 30 ourlt of 32 at the most important position in sports and not being able to critique is stupid.
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5 minutes ago, SCBills said:
Pretty sure you’re watching a different QB than I am.
I don’t even know where to begin because I think that you maybe have been watching replays from his rookie year as opposed to the live games this year?
He is 30 out of 32 in QBR. What metric do you look for? I don't get you apologists. It's like talking to crazy people. I've watched every second of JAs career and the stats match up to what I see. He sucks!
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Just now, Codyny13 said:
Wait, just to make sure I read this correctly, you’re saying the Josh is not a real qb?
Correct, sir. I don't think he has a sustainable way of playing in the league today. He only thrives in chaos. That doesn't work day in day out.
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1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:
Yup I had us at 10-6 with the wildcard this year and I’ve hit every single game in the prediction to be at 5-2 right now. The people who are upset right now are just mad they got ahead of themselves.
Slow down there. I don't have a problem with the general direction of the football team. I think some of us are concerned that the linchpin in the whole operation is a QB that can play every week.
To not have skeptical eyes gazing towards young lord Josh is simply idiotic. His numbers show that he is one of the worst QBs in football given the advanced stats. Capable of incredible plays? Yes. Not a real QB. He is what he is. Says the right things, looks the part. Can't stop his natural tendency to cough up the rock and generally do less-than-full-brain-capacity things with the football.
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5 minutes ago, Lieutenant Aldo Raine said:
Who gives a **** about gator FB and your QB situation.
Haha. Fair enough! Just trying to draw a parallel. I do appreciate the direct candor.
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3 minutes ago, SouthernBills said:
Let me explain something else to Bills Nation. 'We're 5-2. Who would haven't wanted that?' 'I don't care what the national media power rankings say.'
One, there are certainly hacks in the national media, but many of them watch all the games and have objective opinions, unlike this board. They overwhelmingly and rightfully thought our record was misleading. They were right.
Two, clinging to a 5 and 2 record when you had nail-biters against two of the most deplorable tanking teams of the decade and the Jets is not using your head. Does the offense pass the eye test? Does JA pass the eye test?
For reference, I am also a die-hard Florida Gator fan. Many of the same arguments were made for Felipe Franks that are being made for JA.
He has all the tools. He makes big plays when it matters.
Once Franks got hurt, Kyle Trask enters. A more methodical player that gives his defense breaks and reads progressions from the pocket. The offense flourished. It's not that complicated. Coaches and front offices buy into their own conceptions.
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Let me explain something else to Bills Nation. 'We're 5-2. Who would haven't wanted that?' 'I don't care what the national media power rankings say.'
One, there are certainly hacks in the national media, but many of them watch all the games and have objective opinions, unlike this board. They overwhelmingly and rightfully thought our record was misleading. They were right.
Two, clinging to a 5 and 2 record when you had nail-biters against two of the most deplorable tanking teams of the decade and the Jets is not using your head. Does the offense pass the eye test? Does JA pass the eye test?
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Honest question on an obviously polarizing issue: what do JA backers see as progress vs. last years missteps from Josh?
I personally (my opinion) think that he is a sub-par starting NFL QB. I don't think his ability to produce 'off the cuff' is a sustainable way to win games in the long-term. He is careless and doesn't seem to be able to operate within the confines of a normal offense. I see very little improvement in the worrying areas of his game last year. His college analysis by most draft analysts reads like Nostradamus. Capable of amazing plays, innacurate, not disciplined, etc. I don't see him as someone that is going to change.
What are supporters clinging to?
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For the JA supporters: what areas of growth, honestly, do you see from last year's missteps to this year?
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Just now, SouthernBills said:
Allen was good. What kind of nonsense apologist BS is this?
Appalling sense of reality. Everyone was bad. JA is at the front of the line.
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Just now, Johnnycage46 said:
Nope. D and coaching. Hence my comment. I decline to give you a break. Thanks though.
Allen was good. What kind of nonsense apologist BS is this?
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Barkley! Imagine a world where we aren't married to a QB because of where he is drafted. A world where we know 5 and 1 was disingenuous. A place where having a good defense and easy schedule means employing a QB that is consistent and runs the offense.
The JA freak-show offense does not work consistently! In spurts and spots, it can be electric. That is not the objective. He is careless and wild. That will not work.
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Bottom line is that Schwartz is a good if not great coordinator and has been embarrassed recently. He was licking his chops to get his MOJO back against a QB that literally cannot operate in the cinfines of a normal offense.
The problem is JA. The defense sucked today, but they have to pitch a shutout with an offense that should score about 18 points a game without help.
JA is a very good backup QB. Comes in and gives a spark. Makes anazing plays when things breaks down. How long will it take people to realize that that is not sustainable as a starting QB?
Bills 13, Eagles 31 postgame thread
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I absolutely agree. That's when I personally deflated on my couch and resorted to dark spirits. I can't imagine what it did to the defense.