Gettysburg
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Posts posted by Gettysburg
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2 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:
True. It probably had nothing to do with the changes at WR, Oline, and Special teams.
Changes at WR, Oline, and Special Teams helped, so did playing the Jets, but the eye test is what matters. Barkely visually is just much better than the 3 quarterbacks the Bills have started this year. He is talented and polished. Allen is talented and unpolished. Anderson and Peterman had moments where they looked ok for filling in for a few downs or plays but never could not put entire games together.
5 minutes ago, billsredneck1 said:with ramsey and bouye(sp?), they will be able to send the corners on blitzes nonstop. not only does that not bode well for shady... that means for allen...look towards first read then run/panic.
we can't afford to start the first half with 3 and outs. we have to get the lead early and slam the door.
If Allen wasn't coming off a long layoff I think he could fare ok. He has not seen a live defense in a long time. Starting him makes little sense. I would just go with Barkley until the Jets at home. If the goal is to give him reps and confidence then the Jets at home in a few weeks looks like a much better spot to return. If Barkley beats the Jaguars and Dolphins you just have to stick with the hot hand until they are eliminated from the playoffs.
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Plenty of scenarios for Bills to make playoffs. ?
Keep Billieving.
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3 minutes ago, formerlyofCtown said:
How bout we discuss this when we are not 3-7. No wonder ppl on this board get so disappointed if you set your heart on the absolute best possible outcome then you will be disappointed more often than not.
I would rather be realistic and pleasantly durprised.
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2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:
Really the game plan hasn't changed. Stop Bortles and Fournette and you basically win a close low-scoring game.
The Bills will blow it open with turnovers. I don't think the Jaguars want anything to do with getting on a plane and coming up to play in cold weather. I bet they fold early. My only concern is if Bills start rookie and their defense makes him look like what he is. A rookie that has not played in 5 or 6 weeks coming off a pretty serious injury.
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Just now, MDH said:
I don’t think you understand odds.
If every game you mentioned was a 50% chance of going the Bills way the chances of ALL of it happen is less than 1 percent. It’s about a 1 in 500 chance of it all happening.
And that 1/500 chance is being way generous because the games we need aren’t a coin flip. I’d say it’s closer to a 1/5000 than 1/500.
Cue the “so you’re saying there’s a chance!” meme.
I understand odds just fine. I don't think every game is a 50% chance. I don't see the Bills losing another home game this year. Confident they are going to win all 4. 100%.
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2 hours ago, keepthefaith said:
Nate will probably get a shot somewhere else. The Buffalo market has certainly soured on him and the coaches don't need the baggage of him on the roster or PS. Baggage that has been exacerbated by national media piling on. The best thing for him IMO would be to stay out of football until next spring. Let some time lapse and work on his craft in the interim. Time and new surroundings heal wounds and he's got some. Better for the Bills to move beyond him.
It's a QB starved league for even backups and 3rds. Matt Barkley was laughed out of Chicago in a similar fashion in 2016/2017 after similar performances. He stuck with it, got a couple chances and it appears he came back better for it, although 1 game is not a trend.
I don't know if he is very good, but nobody is going to get upset with anyone you put on a practice squad, as long as they stay there. If he is a great practice quarterback that can get the Bills defense prepared bring him in. If not, don't bring him in. Coaches should not make decisions based on what fans or national media think or say.
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1 hour ago, no name said:
you may need to rethink your prediction.
the jags have held the steelers to 66 yds and have shut them out in the first half 9-0.
Even better. A demoralizing loss. The Jaguars are DONE.
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1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:
Well as was pointed out earlier, you're either a troll , 12 years old, or an idiot. If Barkley started, the line may drop to 6 or 5. If they announced I was starting a QB next week for the Bills the line wouldn't move more than a couple points no matter what happens, lines don't change by 7 points. Maybe if they announced Arron Rodgers was starting for Buffalo it might go to even but even then maybe!
We will see in a few days. Think you are way off on this one.
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I like the Bills chances. Jaguars probably check out like the Jets.
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3 minutes ago, Best Player Available said:
You're right. Totally forgot about M. Barkley's TWO career NFL wins.
What a stud.
The only start that matters is with the Bills. And he looked like the best quarterback that has played for the Bills in a long time. 31 points in a half against anyone is a miracle with a team that couldn't score on anyone.
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2 hours ago, Virgil said:
I haven’t seen much attention called to fact that the Chargers are 7-2 with the guy we let walk away to be their coach.
Are those out there thinking we made a mistake or do you chalk it up to having Rivers?
Either way, I’m happy for him and glad he is making the most of his opportunity.
He is a good coach but has a Hall of Fame quarterback. The Bills also made the playoffs last year. He didn't and he had a heck of a lot more talent. I wouldn't want to play him in the playoffs but he isn't beating the Chiefs.
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Just now, Buffalo30 said:
Bills crushed Minnesota with Allen. What's the point in saying there's no shot when something similar already happened?
Minnesota's defense is not Jacksonville's defense. This defense will eat Allen for lunch. Or any rookie for lunch. He will have no idea what is going on.
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2 minutes ago, no name said:
you may need to rethink your prediction.
the jags have held the steelers to 66 yds and have shut them out in the first half 9-0.
I thought Jacksonville would lose like 21-3 or something like that but Jacksonville is obviously playing for their life today. I still cant see Jacksonville scoring on the BIlls and I can see the Bills feasting on Bortles turnovers. My concern is they start a rookie. I don't think you can play Allen against this defense.
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If they start Barkley we will win. If Allen, no shot. The Bills defense will shut down Jacksonville. Allen though will be confused all day and throw pick after pick. Barkley likely will fare better and the Bills should pull out a 17-13 game or something like that.
Asking a rookie coming off an injury and a more than a month on the sideline to return against this defense would not be wise.-
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1 minute ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:
Explain this to me, based on what you're saying how come Jax is a 7 point favorite? Translate that to odds is probably close to 2:1
That's fine that you think all that's going to happen, but to say there's a 10% chance of this happening there's nothing to back it up. As was pointed out probability is multiplied so very quickly goes downhill. Many people here post things that are opinion that can't be verified either way, but when you say 10% chance, that's just not correct mathematically so what you are saying is absolutely beyond the shadow of a doubt WRONG!
Jacksonville will not be a 7 point favorite if Barkley starts. In fact if Jacksonville gets blown out today, the Bills will be favored if Barkley starts. The line is assuming the Bills are throwing a rookie against that defense. I think you will see the end of Jacksonville today. Six straight losses, out of playoff contention. They will pack it in. Just like the Jets.
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8 minutes ago, no name said:
did you you read my post or only the part you quoted?
yes, it's trolling, but not a terrible troll job because no one, you, or I or anyone can say with absolute certainty they make it or don't.
but, had you read my full post you would of seen the scenarios would all have to fall in the bills favor and that's asking the football gods who have not been good to the buffalo bills.
I wasn't taking objection to your post. I was annoyed by being called a troll. I really believe the Bills vs Pats in week 16 will determine the AFC East winner. I think the Bills are the best team in the AFC East if they keep Barkley in at Quarterback. I think this division can be won with our defense and a competent offense. Teams with the number 1 defense in football should and usually are in the playoffs.
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8 minutes ago, no name said:
generally when you get a "new" member who just joined 2 hours ago that starts a thread such as this, is trolling the board big time looking for reactions for such a far out there in left field type of thread.
I'll bite, troll.
Troll? I laid out a plausible scenario. I included a playoff calculator to verify the outcomes of my statements. I firmly believe the Bills will win their next four games and the Pats will drop 3 of their next 4 games. This will set up the Bills at the Patriots in week 16 and that game will determine the winner of the division.
What is so crazy about expecting the Bills to beat a bunch of bad football teams, with 3 of those games at home?
What is so crazy about expecting the Patriots to lose to the Vikings, Dolphins on the road, and Steelers on the Road?I think the Bills Defense is the best unit in the AFC East. I think the Bills with Matt Barkely and added speed at the receiver position finally makes it a legitimate offense. I don't believe the Jets games was a fluke.
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3 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:
I'd imagine the odds are much lower, less than 1%. 2 of the games, Jax and Fish in Miami, the Bills will be underdog. so lets just say it's 1.25:1 against. So multiply that, now add i na factor for every other game you mention and that number drops real fast.
Actually just saw on one site not certain am interpreting correctly but lists them at .1% chance. Another site give the m1/250 to win division which is even less.
The Bills are not losing to a Jacksonville team on a 6 game losing streak coming up to Orchard Park, especially a rested Bills team. That team will not even show up if it is under 32 degrees. The Bills Defense will eat the Dolphins for lunch. The Dolphins can't score, and I am confident if the Bills stick with the veteran they will. If they go with Allen, anything is possible, including a 9-3 loss.
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13 minutes ago, Iron Maiden said:
Right off the bat...Us, beating NE with Brady playing the full game...in Foxboro.... comes to mind as the most likely thing to ruin your scenario....followed by beating Miami on the road....NE rarely has issue beating Pittsburgh....As Big Ben himself says.." They're our daddy ".....Our offense is still too much of a liability to win consistently, no matter who the opponent is....
I don't think the Patriots are that good. That is where we differ. I think they are headed towards a collapse. I really believe they will get beaten at home by the Vikings, lose on the road to the Dolphins (just like they got blown out by the Titans last week) and the wheels will completely come off in Pittsburgh. I think they are done.
7 minutes ago, Best Player Available said:Your first TWO hours on the board have been awesome.
Any other insane predictions?
The Bills have the number 1 defense in football. They finally have two NFL caliber quarterbacks. They get Jacksonville who will likely have lost 6 in a row next week. They get a soft Dolphins team the next week. They then get an atrocious Lions and atrocious Jets team at home. Is it really insane to predict they win the next 4?
The Pats just got blown out by the Titans. The Pats get the Jets, then they get a hot Vikings team that could get even hotter, a road game against a team similar to the Titans in the Dolphins, and then the red hot Steelers. Is it insane to think they lose three of those four games?
That happens and the Bills head to New England with the AFC East Championship on the line.
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7 minutes ago, Iron Maiden said:
If you believe that there's 10% chance the Bills win their 5...and also believe there's a 10% chance NE losing those 3 games.....then the probability of those 2 scenarios happening is much less than 10%...it becomes 1%.....that's my point.....
That is not what I said. I think the chances of the Bills winning their last 5 ( plus NE which also counts as a loss for NE) are closer to 33%. I place a 90% chance at the Bills going 4-0 againt Jacksonville, Jets, Lions, and Dolphins. I expect all 4 to have checked out.
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6 minutes ago, Iron Maiden said:
The chances of 1 of the many things that needs to happen for your scenario to work are good.....the chances that ALL of the things that needs to happen are extremely low....that's how probability works...we're not winning all the games we need to and NE is not losing all of theirs....
I believe there is a 10% chance of the Bills winning their last 6 and also the Patriots losing to the Vikings, Steelers, and Dolphins on the road. 1 in 10. That is my guess. If it played out 10x then 1x it would fall perfectly. That is not very good, but it also isn't like hitting the lottery. The Bills schedule is weak. The Patriots are not that good as shown by their game against the Titans.
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This is the silliness of the Rooney Rule. Should a team that just fired a black coach have to interview minority candidates to replace him?
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4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
The thread and its premise is no more than hopeful tripe.
Not true. What I am saying is the Bills chance of making the playoffs is highly improbably, but not as impossible as one would think. Therefore the Bills should still be trying to win games until they are officially eliminated. Benching a quarterback off a 41 point performance for a rookie just to get him experience is something you do only once you are eliminated from the playoffs. With how anemic the offense has been all year long, benching a quarterback off a 41 point performance is arguably the dumbest thing this team has done at quarterback. And they have done a lot of dumb things at quarterback.
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11 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:
Not gonna happen!
This picture is meaningless. It is only about winning the AFC East. All these other teams are irrelevant. The Bills catch the Pats and win the division or they are not making the playoffs. What I am saying is the Bills have a better chance of winning the division than people think and they should still be trying to win games, not get players experience.
7 minutes ago, fridge said:.1% chance to make the playoffs. And yes, it's using the team's season to predict future outcomes.
It is 1%. Not .1%. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/nfl-playoff-machine.html
And you can't use the Bills season to predict future outcomes. The Bills are 3-3 with Allen or Barkely as their starters. Not 3-7. I take that into account. The computers do not. They run all scenarios as just a 3-7 Bills team.
The Best Team in the NFL is......
in The Stadium Wall Archives
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Saints are a complete team. Would be interesting to see their offense though against the Bills Defense.