Jump to content

ImpactCorey

Community Member
  • Posts

    229
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by ImpactCorey

  1. 41 minutes ago, Ta111 said:

    Actually, those aren’t the odds. The odds favor either the Jags or Steelers losing. That’s why the odds give the Bills 85% chance of making the playoffs.

     

    You're mostly correct.  85% assumes that every game has a 50/50 shot.   Vegas odds alone tells us this isn't the case.  Some teams are more likely to win any one game over another.  Using current Vegas odds and the 3 games in question (Pitt/Balt, Tenn/Jax, Buf/Miami), the games can be adjusted to show that a result that hurts the Bills has a percent chance of 59.4%, 65.8%, and 45.5% respectively.  Multiplying those out to get the odds that exact sequence happening and the Bills missing is 17.8%.  That means the chances of Bills making is %100 - 17.8% or 82.2%, lower than your suggested 85%.  This also assuming that no ties happen, which is a safe assumption.

    • Like (+1) 2
  2. 2 minutes ago, bobobonators said:


    Correct me if I’m wrong but the only other game that “REALLY” matters is the Steelers - bc if the Steelers lose, no matter what anyone else does, including the Bills losing, the Bills secure a wild card spot. 
     

    That is true, unless of course the Steelers win.  It is the FIRST game that matters, but not the only.  

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Agree 1
  3. 15 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

    virtually no chance the game ends in a tie. If it's 4&99 at my own 1 yard line with 1:00 on the clock, I'm going for it. No reason to not.

    I get what you're saying, but you're wrong about no reason to go for it in that circumstance.  With a tie you have the chance to make the playoffs.  With a loss you do not.

    • Like (+1) 1
  4. The Texans vs Colts game is a big one.  Win and in.    But there is something else on the line:  if they tie the Bills are in!   No other games end up mattering (for playoff birth alone).

     

    Furthermore if that game ends in a tie and Steelers and Jaguars both end up winning, both the Texans and Colts are out.

     

    If I was the one scripting the NFL, this is the curveball I'd throw out there.

     

    • Like (+1) 1
    • Haha (+1) 1
×
×
  • Create New...