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Bing Bong

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Posts posted by Bing Bong

    Could Bills Trade Up To #1 For Pass Rusher? Picks and Rousseau For #1?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    On 2/9/2022 at 11:31 AM, 1ManRaid said:

    Holy crap you GREATLY underestimate how much it would cost to move up 20+ spots in the first round to #1 overall.  Need to throw in a couple more 1st and 2nd rounders at least, especially considering our low draft slots.  Our 2nd rounder + Rousseau probably wouldn't get us to the top 10, and it only gets exponentially more expensive from there.

    That's why I said I'd do it, and Jags wouldn't.

     

    We get #1 pick, worst case Ontario we flip it for Aaron Donald

    19 hours ago, 1ManRaid said:

    Another OP update, still has not shown his face despite being online multiple times per day.

    It's quite healthy to step away from a -30 reaction barrage.

    Are we over-reacting to the 13 seconds?

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by FormerlyPT5P

    On 1/26/2022 at 1:56 PM, cv05 said:
    • So I've heard the win probability thrown around that at the 13 second mark the chiefs had a 5%, 1 in 20, chance to win (according to ESPN)
    • Assuming the game goes to overtime, before the coin flip, each team has a 50% chance to win (1 in 2)
    • Ignoring the case where the chiefs win with a TD in regulation, a tie had a probability of about 10% ( (1/2)x(Tie Probability)= 1/20) 

     

    The question - is getting upset about a 10% likely scenario (chiefs tie it in 13 seconds) really fair? It rains in LA 1 in 10 days 🤷‍♂️. Also, does the probability from ESPN (1 in 20) account for the state of the teams at that moment? Mahomes and Allen were having their way with tired defenses - maybe the likelihood of gaining ~40-45 yards in 12 seconds with 3 timeouts was actually pretty good, even better than 10%. I don't know - I think looking at it this way at least makes me feel a bit better.

     

    I will out myself as being completely irrational over the last few days. I completely disagree with the defensive strategy, and was (to a lessor extent) against what happened with the kick. I have been just about as upset with McDermott as anyone. I had never been a huge fan (attributed team success to Allen, and McDermott more just getting in the way). But maybe we were up against more than we realized at that 13 second mark. I don't know - food for thought. 

    I posted a chart of the win probability throughout the game afterwards and while the chart spiked up and down like crazy, the extremes of the probabilities were the lowest you'd ever see for other games in the same situations.

     

    They knew the defenses were virtually traffic cones at that point better than we did.

     

    But if you told me there was a remote chance I would have laughed. Emotionally it just left me in shock for the rest of the game. It's hard to defend how easy it looked. Maybe some contested catches. 

     

    Also we can pin McDermott for sure, but Andy Reid hanging onto those timeouts will never get credit around these parts.

    Kyler Murray unfollows Cardinals on social media

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

     

    Maybe he's salty that he was actually criticized for his playoff performance, including throwing one of the most boneheaded pick-6's I've ever seen.

     

    He has a throw right there which he could place where either an eligible receiver, or no one, gets it

    image.thumb.png.1c744c924e7050d17531708c41eda1a9.png

     

    Instead, he pulls it down and waits until this happens:

    image.thumb.png.59811f91eb407a7972ce1a23105251a8.png

     

    Then declines to take a safety by throwing it up so that this happens:

    image.thumb.png.ded816c91928e6f9330c2f7e38ed67df.png

     

    That wins out hands-down over anything Allen did in the Houston playoff game, and he deserves a ***** ton of flak for it.

    That was horrific. I even felt bad for him atm

    • Like (+1) 1

    *[EDIT]* Multiple reports Browns actively shopping Mayfield pg. 29/30 - Ravens / Browns in QB contract pickle

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted

    They're going to eventually have to cap QB contracts right? Like in the NBA your superstar Max player is probably worth 75% of your team money the league would have to have one a team to have parity. So he's capped

     

    There's like 10 quarterbacks worth that. It could just be JA with vet minimum OL, WR and defense trying to beat a normally salaried team like the Colts by himself

    AFCCG - Bengals @ Chiefs

    in The Stadium Wall

    Posted · Edited by FormerlyPT5P

    4 minutes ago, stevewin said:

    Kinda crazy all I hear is Mahomes is the greatest QB in the history of the sport and KC is unstoppable juggernaut and they barely hang in two straight playoff games by the tips of their fingernails

    Happens to Tom Brady or literally anyone with a couple playoff runs. 

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