There are ~1,700 players in the NFL. Of those 1,700, probably a little more than half get real, consequential amounts of playing time. Let's just say 1,000. So we're talking about the 1,000 best football players out of the 6,999,999,000 other people on the planet. Give or take.
Within that subset of people the variances are minimal. The differences in speed, closing time, reaction time, positioning, read-recognition, hands, sight-lines, intuitiveness, jump-timing, turn-timing, etc. of the 31st best cornerback and the 84th best cornerback in the NFL are minimal. We're talking about a game of milliseconds. A game of fractions. A game of lightning-fast decision-making, muscle-twitch and a few pounds-per-square-inch difference during the average NFL play in which there are suddenly 22 moving parts in 5 second bursts.
And then it stops.
Jim Harbaugh this year again proved (he's not the only one to prove it) what we've known intuitively all along. On defense, talent matters more than on offense. On offense, more than anything else, the game plan needs to be superior. I'm not saying Aaron Rogers would suck on the Vikings - but I'm saying he certainly wouldn't look as good. Dan Marino would have won just as many rings as Joe Monatana if he played in Walsh's system. Barry Sanders would have just as many rings as (probably more than) Emmitt Smith had he played under Jimmy Johnson (and behind that o-line). I realize these are extreme examples - but they are a sufficient analogy. And I'm not saying talent doesn't matter - if everyone is good, an average system can be sufficient; Kelly, Thomas and Reed were more successful in the K-Gun than would have been, say, Gelbaugh, Warren and Kane.
But the Bills can't afford top talent. And there is one place you can improve that doesn't cost as much as 4 superstar offensive players. It's the game plan, stupid.
Gailey's spread offense came out guns blazing to start the season. Then they spluttered. They spluttered before Jackson got hurt. What happened? Did they suddenly start facing better teams? No. They got adjusted to. In the NFL, see, teams watch "film of you playing," and develop a "game plan" in order to "beat you." When opposing teams started stacking the box with blitzers and jamming our receivers at the line, Gailey's system came to a screeching halt.
For all intents and purposes, Gailey did not adjust back (he did small things, but not enough). Right now I see two roadblocks to the playoffs. Our offensive system, and our defensive talent. Gailey needs to be reflexive enough to adjust to a team that's beating his initial system, in-game. So far, he hasn't shown that he's creative enough to get it done. On defense, as we all know, the plan is less important than speed. And speed costs money. Wannstedt is a good start (and it must be noted that George Edwards' system was so bad he made an already swiss cheese defense look like a warm, wet mop), but we need speed.
