odon59
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Posts posted by odon59
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Look, it's ok to be intimidated by advanced concepts like regressing to the mean. It is hard for some people to understand.
To sum it up, statistical flukes even out over time. The stoppages the Bills have had are lopsided on a percentage basis. If they are better than the other teams at 4th down then they might beat the norm by a little but not a lot. Right now they are beating it by a lot.
Look at it this way, Tiger Woods is the best golfer. He has arguably the biggest current advantage over his competitors in all of sports. Over time this proves out to be true as he wins a lot of tournaments. But he does not exactly get a hole in one on every par 3 he plays. He can't beat the par 3s every time just because he is the best. This might not be the perfect example but I think you get it. Right?
I doubt you're calling the Bills defense the Tiger Woods of football so you'd probably agree now that they will start giving up a lot of 4th downs.
I understad what regressing to the mean is, buddy. You're still not providing evidence that shows the Bills d will regress to the NFL mean and not some other asymtope point. The NFL has a mean for 4th down stops, but some teams are above and some are below it. We're above it right now and may or may not stay there. But to say there WILL end of at the league mean is just ludicrous. Your logic is wrong, your statistical model is wrong, and your overall demeanor just sucks as well.
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Uh-oh, by applying Crayonz statistical analysis, it would appear that he has used up all of his interceptions for this season and at least half of next. We better get Whitner back soon, he has plenty of unused interceptions left for this year.
Exactly!
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So you're saying if I flip a coin 100 times it might come up heads every time?
The law of averages says it should be around 50/50. Sure it might be 51/49 due to the wieght factor on 1 side of the coin versus the other, but over a full session of coin flipping it will even out.
Similarly, over a full football season, the 4th down conversions will even out. Not to get all high and mighty, but this is called regressing to the mean. I know that is technical talk but what it means is that the Bills will probably not stop too many more 4th downs this year.
You seriously didn't read a word I wrote. You're assuming 4th and short stops are 50/50 league wide (which you haven't provided any data for) AND you're assuming that the Bills aren't just somehow better than the league average (which they may be).
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Yah but that's just going to screw us down the road because we can only do that so many times until they are all used up.
Wow clearly you don't understand anything I wrote. Nevermind.
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Are you crazy or something? The numbers don't lie. I'm with Crayonz.
No actually I'm not crazy. The OP's argument was logic based, and it's flawed. I'm just pointing out the flaw.
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The Bills seem to have stopped a ton of 4th and shorts this year. They stopped another one yesterday. It is certainly good and yesterday's was important, but at this point the odds are not in our favor.
We are WAY above the norm in stopping these and the law of averages is bound to catch up with us. It seems to me that it is almost impossible mathematically for us to stop another one for the rest of the season. Maybe one but that would be it.
Sorry to be negative nancy here, but your logic is really flawed. You have to either look at these events as random (coin flip), or correlated (outcomes in the past have some effect on the outcomes in the future), but you can't treat them as both at the same time. If stopping an opponent on 4th and short is random (coin flip), then even if we've stopped a disproportionately high number of them so far (e.g. lots of heads in a row in a coin flip) the outcome of any future 4th and short will still be 50/50. This is regardless of how they've done in the past because a coin has no memory.
If the outcome is correlated (i.e. their defense just happens to be good at 4th and short situations), then how they've done in the past will affect future outcomes but in this case it will affect them positively.
Either way, there is no mathematical model (statistical or other) that suggests the Bills can't stop another 4th and short.
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Media: "With D. Bell week-to-week, are you ok with Chambers and Scott?"
DJ: "Yes, I like our group"
Holy f*&king s$%t!!!
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Terms of the deal weren't disclosed (big surprise), but Mcgee was quoted as saying ".....I'll be fine for Sunday".
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Yes we've had a decade of mediocrity and Jauron is only responsible for the last 3 years. However, the common thread is bad coaching which we've gotten out of Williams, Mularkey and now Jauron. The front office is responsible for putting talent on the field, which I honestly think we have. What we need is better coaching. Just my thoughts...
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I posted this on another thread and it got some positive feedback, so I thought I would share it with everyone.
I want to be optimistic too, and I agree with the previous analyses about the young players performance last night. Here's the problem - most games in the NFL are close, yet some teams win consistently and others lose consistently. Guess which one the Bills are? Last night wasn't about talent, and most NFL games are not decided on talent because there is too much parity in the league. Go position by position - the pats are clear cut winners at QB, nose tackle, and probably LT. On the flip side, the Bills have better "talent" at RB and DB. A lot of the other positions are pretty much even.
The difference is coaching and players playing smart football. The Pats players are COACHED to do things like rip the ball out if you're the second guy in on a tackle, and they also happen to have the presence of mind to actually do it in important situations. Likewise, Mckelvin wasn't COACHED to do the smart thing, or atleast he didn't have the football smarts to do it. He's clearly a superior athlete to the Pats return men, but his decision making was bad and it cost the Bills the game.
Take the 3 close games this past weekend: Denver/Cinci, Buffalo/NE, and San Diego/Oakland. The perennial winners won and the bumbling Bills, Bengals, and Raiders lost. Coincidence? I think not. All the winning teams have superior coaching and players that play smart football.
Sorry for rambling, and again I really hope the great performances of the young guys is evidence of things to come this season. But honestly, I don't think their culture of losing will change until superior coaching is brought in. It's been said before, but this past weekend really exemplified that theory.
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I want to be optimistic too, and I agree with the previous analyses about the young players. Here's the problem - most games in the NFL are close, yet some teams win consistently and others lose consistently. Guess which one the Bills are? Last night wasn't about talent, and most NFL games are not decided on talent because there is too much parity in the league. Go position by position - the pats are clear cut winners at QB, nose tackle, and probably LT. On the flip side, the Bills have better "talent" at RB and DB. A lot of the other positions are pretty much even.
The difference is coaching and players playing smart football. The Pats players are COACHED to do things like rip the ball out if you're the second guy in on a tackle, and they also happen to have the presence of mind to actually do it in important situations. Likewise, Mckelvin wasn't COACHED to do the smart thing, or atleast he didn't have the football smarts to do it. He's clearly a superior athlete to the Pats return men, but his decision making was bad and it cost the Bills the game.
Take the 3 close games this past weekend: Denver/Cinci, Buffalo/NE, and San Diego/Oakland. The perennial winners won and the bumbling Bills, Bengals, and Raiders lost. Coincidence? I think not. All the winning teams have superior coaching and players that play smart football.
Sorry for rambling, and again I really hope the great performances of the young guys is evidence of things to come this season. But honestly, I don't think their culture of losing will change until superior coaching is brought in. It's been said before, but this past weekend really exemplified that theory.
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chances are they won't get all 3 traded this off season, but the fact that everyone (including the media) knows they are all available is no coincidence. I think RB is sending a message: if you don't perform, you're expendable. plain and simple. he flat out cut dockery because he was so bad, but these guys just haven't lived up to their draft # and/or salary.
people will criticize either way, but at least the front office is trying something different.
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Here's a feature I found on Pettigrew. Interesting stuff.
Would you guys take him at No. 11. Gonna be tempting. I really don't think Buffalo could get him at 28.
i say take the best DE at 11, and if Pettigrew isn't available at 28 then Jared Cook is our man. He grades only slightly lower than pettigrew, ran a sub 4.5 40, and played in the SEC. if we took pettigrew at 11 and the best remaining DE at 28 i think we would be much worse off. just my opinion....
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I'm sure T.O. agreed. He always comes out as a team player. Fact is we paid for cancer, a few weeks in it's gonna start
Do you know what happens when you put a cancerous tumor in a dead corpse?
Absolutely nothing, which is the worst thing that could happen with this experiment. The Bills maintain status quo, lose a bunch of games and stay home in January.
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just a thought - was Trent a 49er's fan growing up? if so, he was probably a big TO fan in middle/high school and maybe had thoughts of playing with his old icon?
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great question! if we assume an average ticket price of $90 (that includes luxury/box seats and a somewhat higher ticket price considering it's a playoff game - if someone knows whether or not teams charge more for playoff tix please chime in) and capacity of 75,000, that puts ticket revenue at 6.75M. Of course this is the NFL, so 40% of that goes to the visiting team, so that puts the Bills take at 4.05M. Now let's assume 4 ticket holders per vehicle and $25/vehicle, so that's another 0.47M. We could also conservatively estimate $10/ticket holder in food/beverages so that's yet another 0.75M. So that's $5.37M for a home playoff game. if i'm missing any components or you think i'm way off somewhere feel free to correct me.
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My biggest knock on DJ is his game time decisions. Standing pat at the 29 yard line. Going for it on 4th and 1 in FG range early in the game against Jets. Botches fake FG early in game with lead in NE last year. On and on and on. He get's the guys prepared and they play hard, are in a position to win, and then he blows it with a bone headed call like 3 runs into the line Monday night with the game on the line. I too was hoping for some stability. But I'm starting to think DJ should be run out of town on a rail if we continue to falter down the stretch.
I wonder what Marty Schottemhiemer is doing these days? Losing a playoff game doesn't sound so bad 10 years since our last.
forget schottenheimer, i want cowler!!!!
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If that's the case, then I totally missed it on the slow-motion replay being projected in HD on the wall 8 feet in front of me.
In slow motion you can see peters "rocking" a little bit, so it could be interpreted as a false start. however, you will also see that NE's d-end or outside LB was lined up offside at the time peters moved, so it should have been offsides, defense, lining up in the neutral zone. funny how the side judge saw peters moving but not the NE players head clearly across the plane. bs....
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http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=3678394
Wilfork admitted that his hit on J.P. last season was a "cheap shot", but since his wife came with him and they have a DVD that shows his hit on Cutler may not have been dirty he avoids suspension.
Lesson learned: Cheapshotting a bills player is fine, just don't do it to a larger market team's franchise player and we won't suspend you. GREAT MESSAGE YOU'RE SENDING GOODELL!!!
Why is D. Bell taking so much criticism here?
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
I rewatched the safety play and Levitre missed his reach block by a mile. It was his guy the completely blew up the play. I'm neither condeming Levitre's overall play nor endorsing Bell's. It was just an observation on one play.
P.S. Did anyone catch Mike Williams playing right tackle last night? What a nightmare from the past....