Playoff Picture, WildCard

[camcool21]

Teams in wildcard chase:

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8-5:

Cincinnati (@Indy, @Denver, Pitt)

Jax (@Tenn, New England, @KC)

 

7-6:

NYJ (@Minn, @Miami, Oakland)

Denver (@Arizona, Cincinnati, SF)

KC (@SD, @Oakland, Jax)

 

6-7:

Bills (Miami, Tenn, @Baltimore)

Miami (@Bills, NYJ, @Indy)

Pitt (@Carolina, Baltimore, @Cincy)

Tenn (Jax, @Buffalo, New England)

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With that information, right now Cincinnati and Jacksonville would be the wild cards...teams with a 7-6 record are 1 game out...teams with a 6-7 are 2 games out.

 

In order for the bills to get a wild card, it really would have helped for Jacksonville not to have upset Indy, and that would put the Bills closer to a WC spot.

 

The Bills have the easiest schedule in my opinion, with Denver having the second easiest schedule.

 

Pittsburgh and Cincinnati have the hardest schedules in my opinion...

 

 

 

In three weeks the 2 Wild Cards will be:

-Denver

-NYJ

 

I do think the bills run the table and go 9-7. Unfortunately, they will come up short in the end.

 

I do like the momentum that will carry over into next season =)

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Why the Bills will not make the playoffs?

Sun, Sep 10 at New England Loss 17-19

Sun, Oct 15 at Detroit Loss 17-20

Sun, Nov 12 at Indianapolis Loss 16-17

Sun, Dec 3 San Diego Loss 21-24

 

 

Close games killin us...we've lost 4 games by 3 points or less, this could be an indicator by our large number of young players.

 

If we manage to win the close games our record is 10-3...just something to think about for next season

[camcool21]

Thought I would include this explanation, made by ezbills:

 

 

If the Bills win out, they have a solid shot at a wildcard spot. Most of the other teams they are competing with have tough schedules and the Bills will hold most or all of the tiebreakers.

 

 

If Buffalo goes 3-0 (finishing at 9-7, 7-5), they would need the following to get a wildcard berth:

 

- KC one loss AND

 

- NYJ loss to MIA (OR NYJ losses to both MIN and OAK) AND

 

2 of the following 3 things:

 

- 2 JAX losses

 

- 2 DEN losses (OR 1 DEN loss and 1 KC loss so KC wins tiebraker over DEN)

 

- 2 CIN losses plus strength of victory tiebreaker

 

 

There is a great chance that KC will lose at SD next week, ensuring that the Bills will tie or finish ahead of them. The Chiefs also have games against the Raiders and Jaguars. The Bills would hold the tiebreaker with any Chiefs loss based on AFC record.

 

Given Miami's performance today and how awful the Jets looked vs the Bills, there's a good chance that Miami will beat the Jets in Miami. In that scenario, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker over the Jets based on AFC record. If the Jets beat Miami, however, the Jets would hold the tiebreaker and the Bills would need the Jets to finish at 8-8 by losing to the Vikings and Raiders.

 

That leaves JAX, CIN, DEN, and BUF for 2 wildcard spots. Jacksonville has a difficult remaining schedule with the Titans, Patriots, and Chiefs. Should the Jags lose 2 of those 3, the Bills would hold the tiebreaker based on AFC record (the head-to-head win vs the Jags only matters in a 2-team tie).

 

The Broncos are self-destructing having lost 4 in a row after starting 7-2. They could easily lose 2 or all 3 of their remaining games against the Cardinals (who just beat Seattle), Bengals and 49ers. Should Denver lose just one game, the Bills would lose the tiebreaker unless the Chiefs also finished with a 9-7 record, in which case the Bills would beat both KC and DEN.

 

The most interesting tiebreaker would be vs the Bengals who have tough games coming up against the Colts, Broncos and Steelers. The Bills and Bengals would likely have the same AFC record and the same record vs common opponents, so the tiebreaker would go to strenth of victory (i.e. the combined winning percentage of all the teams you beat). The Bills currently hold the advantage in this tiebreaker thanks in part to the Dolphins' recent run of wins.

 

BUF strength of victory (58-59):

MIA, MIN, GB, HOU, JAX, NYJ, (MIA, TEN, BAL)

6-7 6-7 5-8 4-9 8-5 7-6 (6-7 6-7 10-3)

 

CIN strength of victory (53-63):

KC, CLE, PIT, CAR, NO, CLE, BAL OAK (PIT)

7-6 4-9 6-7 6-7 *8-4 4-9 10-3 2-11 6-7

 

 

In my opinion, the 2 games that will determine the Bills' playoff fate (other than the Bills' own games) is next week's Jags/ Titans matchup and the Jets/Miami night game. If the Titans and Dolphins win those games, the Bills will have a great shot at a wildcard birth if they run the table.

 

Remember, the Steelers were in a similar position with a few weeks to play last season and things worked out pretty well for them...