This seems to be a vetted model by a well-respected group: https://covidactnow.org/?fbclid=IwAR3l1EXwaXwJheTBMHC-eXXBeDUnx_j5Aok7z-QPt6S943UcOcNskzMsIn8   If you click on a state, it will estimate (based on current number of diagnosed patients) the epidemic curve for your state and the last date to act towards social distancing and achieve an impact.
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