My sense of the keys to Bills success in 2012

[Hplarrm]

Of course as I think is the case for most teams it really starts in the trenches. If you show control there your D sets the tone for the game even though your opposing O gets the advantage of calling the play it wants. If you at least have adequate work in the O line then your playmakes can use their talents but if not they simply have to run for their lives and you end up making a great play once in a while.

 

For the 2012 Bills the key is likely to be the ability to perform in all three areas which make up the game and this should lead to success in the game overall.

 

Specifically:

 

1. It all start with the D-line and due to some nice drafting, and player development, and supplemented by a couple of big FA purchases, there is good reason to estimate hope that our DL will set the tone for the game even against the best Os in the NFL (NE).

 

Even with a quick decision maker with accurate passing and running options like NE under Bellicheat, the reality is that they must account for at least 3 Bills DL players who demand a double team (Mario, Williams (assuming his health returns) and at least on run plays highly drafted Dareus who demands a d/t when his area is the point of attack but also he had demonstrated that its bad news to single him when he rushes the passer. The need to assign 6 players with a serious responsiblity on 3 rushers basically forces even a great opposing O to take the TE and a runner out of the passing game as potential blockers on the 4th Bills DL player (who might be acquisition Anderson who probably commands a dt himself on passing downs and one of some questionable but potentially quite servicable LBs.

 

The Bills look incredibly deep in the DL trenches and seem likely to set the tone for the game with it. In addition to the marginal LBs they will have a great D in history as an HC Wanny in charge and a demonstratedly opportunistic and deep DB grop picking up detritus from this talented DL.

 

2. O- This could reasonably be judged a problem (and it may well be) but it clearly has a ton of strength at RB, potential but lack of depth at WR, potemtisl but lack of experience at OL, and even potential at TE, and management potential though lack of demonstrated skill at QB. But most of all an O wizard running the show in Gailey who has demonstrated ability to get production from an O using the tools he has at hand.

 

My sense from watching too many decades of football is that Gailey SHOULD be able to make this work IF his OL proves to be a force on run plays that really not only holds the line on defensive attacks but actually forces the D onto its heels in the face of furious blocking and interesting skill players. In my mind, the key is the offensive line which actually performed better than I expected last year given the average at best starters and then tremendous series of injuries.

 

Ironically, the injuries last year may prove beneficial to the Bills OL as their replacement players got wondeerful game time. It looks like we have two choices at LT where Hairston held his own filling in for the now departed Bell. However, he does not seem the long term answer and even in the immediate can he really be expected to be the positive force we need. Cordy Glenn might. I like the flexible LeVitre at guard. Wood simply does need to comeback from injury but early signs indicate he will. Urbik at the other guard and Pears at RT though nothing special seem to be adequate.

 

Rineheart and whoever loses the LT battle provide back-up but this unit needs to perform at its maximum or we will be not running up yards but running for our lives. A lot of Fitzy's INT problems last year struck me as coming from his making bad decisions while under pressure. The good news is that as the Bills look to improve this outcome, they have two areas to work on to produce improvement, Fitzy making better decisions OR the OL keeping him under less extreme pressure, I doubt we will see improvement in any one of these areas to make a huge difference. However,I do not see it as unreasonable that we might have marginal improvements in both areas which result in significant improvement in results.

 

ST- I feel good about the potential for us to see improvement in a number of facets of the ST game:

 

1. More talented personnel- One of the most impressive things to me in the Bills '12 draft is that they really seemed to emphasize getting players who had some demonstrated achievement in the ST game in college. Bradham- some say he is a likely ST monster who was not apparently drafted for a particular starting LB role but because he can back-up multiple LB slots, Brooks- Speedy guy seen by some as making primary immediate contribution on ST, Carder has a rep for exceling at everything he does despite a lack of over the top speed and a solid tackler which great instincts. This yells ST wedge guy on returns and solid stay in his lane guy on kick coverage to me. We also clearly seem to be looking for a specific type of player with all the FA acquisirions, tryouts and cuts of marginsl players. We cannot tell from the outside what the plan is but it does seem to be the case the Bills likely have a depth chart not only for position players but one for gunners, wedge busters, blocking set-up guys and other specific special teams roles which are part of the "DeHaven" system which has been producing consistently topped ranked ST units for years.

 

2. An ST system- This speaks directly to the Bills ongoing and tangled history with Bruce DeHaven as Bills ST guru. He was here forever and the Bills ST performance showed the benefit of his work while he was here (and also the benefit of having two of the most outstanding ST players of all time here- knocking on the HoF door Steve Tasker and many felt a more valuable player than Tasker Pike)! Still DeHaven paid the price wirh his job for miscues like the Homerun Throw-up and actually the Bills did not miss a beat with Bobby April coming in an again producing extraordinary results on the field.

 

DeHaven coming back actually provided the Bills with the surprising chance of losing a wizard like April but still seeing the ST unit remain top flight but even potentiallt even perform better. DeHaven is actually a bit more conservative than the innovative April from what I see. However, DeHaven's longtime familiarity with Littman and the front office guys seems to have combined with an alliance with HC Chan Gailey to see the Bills make a significant strategic commitment to drafting and also resigning ST assets.

 

3. Great ST skill guys- You see this in a virtually unprecedented commitment to getting guys with a history of production at ST skill positions. Like it or not (many are frustrated that the Bills never seem to go for it on 4th and whatever anywhere near the redzone( but part of the reason they do not is that Lindell is simply the most accurate PK in Bills history. Whether the overall results for the team end up being average or bad, Lindell has been like money in the bank on place-kicking. Add to this that he has consistenetly kicked the ball the exact distance, in the exact direction and with hangtime the Bills coaches have requested and its easy to see why he has been a success story on a series of poorly managed or designed teams.

 

Add to this Moorman who is a known commodity in the NFL as an unusually athletically gifted punter with a great brain for the game (he once won the an NFL skills competition against other pro bowl qualifying athletes by figuring out that if he strategically attacked the multi-skill course designed to demand skills in running, blocking, ball handling etc, that by simply skipping aspects which demanded great bulk and taking a 5 second penalty rather than spending double digit seconds completing the task, he best out the TEs and more skilled at multiple facets of the game players. Sure it was not a demonstration of multiple physical skills which was the design but a clear demonstration of being a great gamer and a smart guy. The Bills are now starting to challenge Moorman with younger players likely more physically adept but he shows all the signs of a player that will hang around for a few extra years by squeezing everty ounce of productivity out of the skills he has.

 

Sanborn at long snapper is in many ways a Bills secret weapon. Many of the most reliable long snappers in the game are former OL position players who make the jump as their careers wind down into also having LS skills. Sanborm is a relative rarity in that he has held down a pivotal LS role since his high school days and identified quickly in college that his best (if not only) road to the pros was as an Long snap specialist. He Florida States long snapper his entire final two years in college and despite being a relative youngster He has played all 16 games in the last three years as a Bill and is the LS guy for punting, Fgs and PATs. He even has begun to show some good tacking ability.

 

KR is a weird part of the game right now as by moving the kick-off line a mere 5 yards they have created the double penalty for KRs of more touchbacks and 5 less yards to run to cover kicks. Still PR returns are a possible game changer and between the newly added Graham, and a host of past productive return guys (including the much hated because of some positio play errors and leaving the ball on the carpet in a couple of notable episodes, McKelvin, the Bills have some potent possibilities here.

 

I like this ST unit and expect it to lead us to a couple of wins this year mostly through winning the field position battle.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Add to this Moorman who is a known commodity in the NFL as an unusually athletically gifted punter with a great brain for the game (he once won the an NFL skills competition against other pro bowl qualifying athletes by figuring out that if he strategically attacked the multi-skill course designed to demand skills in running, blocking, ball handling etc, that by simply skipping aspects which demanded great bulk and taking a 5 second penalty rather than spending double digit seconds completing the task, he best out the TEs and more skilled at multiple facets of the game players. Sure it was not a demonstration of multiple physical skills which was the design but a clear demonstration of being a great gamer and a smart guy). The Bills are now starting to challenge Moorman with younger players likely more physically adept but he shows all the signs of a player that will hang around for a few extra years by squeezing everty ounce of productivity out of the skills he has.

 

Sanborn at long snapper is in many ways a Bills secret weapon. Many of the most reliable long snappers in the game are former OL position players who make the jump as their careers wind down into also having LS skills. Sanborm is a relative rarity in that he has held down a pivotal LS role since his high school days and identified quickly in college that his best (if not only) road to the pros was as an Long snap specialist.

I like this ST unit and expect it to lead us to a couple of wins this year mostly through winning the field position battle.

Good stuff Hp though I'm not sure we're worthy of such an effort.

 

I found the bolded parts particularly interesting and agree that our special teams are not gonna be a liability at all.

 

 

[sllib olaffub]

I was thinking just the other day that a real key to the Bills success this year is going to be how we fare against 3-4 teams. Over the past 3 or 4 years (and more, I know) we've had a history of playing poorly against teams employing the 3-4 defense. Many of us thought we'd improve on that front by becoming a 3-4 team ourselves, but it didn't help too much, in my estimation. I think we play 9 teams this year that employ the 3-4 base defense.

 

The thought came to me after reading about our Tackles, Glenn, Hairston, and the injured Pears. The news out of camp has been how these youngsters have shown flashes of game, but have often been schooled, as well, by all of our DE's. I realized they might have a much tougher time against 3-4 teams with good OLB's, as they might get caught up with the DE's and have a hard time getting separation and then dealing with the speedsters. We'll see, but that should be a real focus for Gailey - solving this 3-4 problem once and for all!

 

Otherwise, I think the biggest keys to this season will be the O-line, QB, and WR play. Although the O-line has been addressed, it is still young in many areas and needs to prove itself (and, if healthy, I think will prove to be a top 5 line in the NFL). Gailey has made due, it seems, with inheriting an offense that had very little to be excited about, and making the most of the talent. Because he's so good at doing just that, we've seen the rest of the team evolve into really excellent NFL material. Well, by the end of this year we'll know how many gems were there to find, and next year's draft and offseason will be spent aquiring the QB of the future (if Fitz doesn't take us to the playoffs), and the right WR to complement what we have.

 

All in all, though - I love the look of this team - it is still a work in progress, and it will be growing into a powerhouse, starting this year, and remaining relevant and strong for as long as Nix and Whaley are adding the pieces, I see us going 11-5 and making the playoffs. From there, it'll depend on the health of our team, and the QB play, just how far we go.