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tt34

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Posts posted by tt34

  1. Fitz gives us the best opportunity to win.

     

    The players are very excited that he is starting.

     

    Someone should explain why Fitzpatrick is playing. The whole "he gives us the best chance to win now" thing is just not true. Edwards is not good but Fitzpatrick is just terrible. Something else is going on and someone should step up and say what it is.

  2. And the odds of kicking it long and forcing a fumble???? Damn that Belichek is a genius since it worked..... Fine, show me the stats.... I am sure it is higher then 10% over the past decade.

     

    I'm not saying that Belichick is a genius, just that if the onside success rate last year was 10% as the MNF crew said, then it's not ridiculous that you kick deep in that spot. Especially, since onside kick and praying for a fumble on the kick return aren't the only possible outcomes. There is a third option where the Bills get the ball somewhere between their 20-30 yard line after the kickoff and then the Pats sell out to stop them from getting a first down -- not entirely unlikely since anyone would guess that the Bills would probably call three straight running plays to burn clock/Pats timeouts.

  3. I checked and the 10 year result was 25%.... Incredible how difficult it is to find the stat online. Point is with 2:00 minutes to go you have to try and give your team the opportunity for 2 possessions (recover or a 3 and out). There was 2:06 remaining, thus if unsuccessful, there still would have been the 2 minute warning and 2 timeouts to use and if they stopped the Bills they would have gotten the ball back with a timeout.

     

    Belichek made the wrong decision, yet got the right result in any case.

     

    Congrats, you know how to use Google. Do you also know how to apply some reasoning to what you read? For example, did you see that the article you got the 25% number from was written in the 2005 season? So, its a bit dated generally and also pre-dates the rule change on stacking players on one side on the kick. Don't let that stand in your way though.

  4. How about answering the question. The ball was at the 29 yard line and there were 2 minutes left. Watching the seconds tick away, knowing if NE scores we have less and less time to come back is a loser mentality. Once they got the first down and are inside the 20, use the timeouts. If NE scores we need time on the clock. If they don't, the game is over in any case.

     

    An aside is how obnoxious, smug and so cocky Belichek was? 2:00 minutes left, down 5 and he kicks deep, knowing they have 3 timeouts and convinced there is no way Buffalo will get a first down. The success rate for on-side kicks is 25%. The smart money is you try the on-side kick and if it does not work you use the 3 timeouts.

     

     

    Actually, the announcers discussed this right before the kickoff and said that the success rate on onside kicks last year was 10%. Don't know if that's true, but 1/10 is a big difference from 1/4.

  5. Forget about the NCAA game. The real question is what will these guys be rated in next year's Madden. Hopefully something that might give the Bills a ranking that makes them a playable team again. It's sucked that in the last few versions you could only play the Bills against the newest of players or a team like the Raiders.

     

    Oh, and I hope these rookies are good on the field as well, cause that's pretty important too -- for their Madden rankings the following year that is.

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