Nostradamus
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Posts posted by Nostradamus
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Sheppard was god awful last night, Mark Kelso pointed out his mistakes often.
At one point, he turned his back on the ball carrier and he ran right past him.
Worst job by a MLB in years........
It really was that bad. He didn't even factor in the boxscore. Not even an assisted tackle. It is as if they are playing short handed when he is on the field.
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Many Teams like to acquire as many picks as possible which is good if a major overhaul is needed but in reality how many great players are there going to be in the latter rounds (yes I know we have hit on many late rounders but all that shows s how many misses we had early). How many times have you gone through draft boards and as you're going through the early rounds and thought man I want this guy and this guy and this guy and you realize you only have one pick per round.
What I would do is trade back in the first to get more 1st or second round picks and then trade up my 4+5 for another second and 6+7s (we always seem to get comp picks) for another 4rth. In General This would give us 6 total picks where the majority of great to probowl players are and where many first round talents slide back because teams are reaching for them in the first. I wouldn't trade up in the first because it costs too much unless there was a can't miss player. I now you need trade partners but NE seems to manage it every so we can too. Also I would trade fading stars for additional picks like we did with Evans. The rest of the roster would be filled with UDFAs who are just about as good as 5,6,7th rounders.
A team that was made up mostly 1,2,3,4 rounders would be incredibly hard to beat.
So this year we trade our first for one in the late teens early 20's and get a second, 2 4rths for a 2, 2 5ths for third and 6 & 2 7s for 4rth.
1. Stephen Hill Georgia Tech 6'5" 200 WR
2. Coby Fleener Stanford 6'6" 247 TE
2. Lavonte David Nebraska 6'1" 233 OLB
2. Josh Robinson Central Florida 5'10" 199 CB
3. Jared Crick Nebraska 6'4" 279 DE
3. Mitchell Schwartz California 6'5" 318 LT
4. B.J. Coleman Chattanooga 6'3" 220 QB
Very forward thinking. There is not a lot of high end top end talent outside of the first 6 or so. The strength of this draft is the depth in the first 4 rounds. These moves would allow the Bills to play to the strength of the draft, instead of having the draft play them. However, with that philosophy, I don't like the Hill and Schwartz picks. There is just too much depth in the receiver class to take a flyer on a workout warrior like Hill. Also, trading back into the early 20's should still allow the Bills a shot at one of the first round tackle talents, like Glenn or Reiff. Early 20's would be a good spot for one of them, or even Jonathan Martin if they are gone. I'd feel much better with one of those guys than Schwartz. Then, in the third or possibly second round, they could grab a receiver like Jeffrey, Sanu, Randle, or Quick, in that order of preference.
That would stockpile the Bills with good players, almost all whom I'd expect to be productive sooner rather than later, while still maximizing their chances of solidifying what I think is their weakest position right now, left tackle.
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This assumes that OBD's plan is Fitz for the next 2-4yrs
Trade up for Kalil:
2012 2nd
2013 1st
2013 2nd or trade Mckelvin (or both if required)
Draft Decastro with this years 10th pick
Draft WR/CB/LB with remaining picks in 2012 and fill any remaining gapes with FA/training camp/preseason cuts.
RESULT: Quite possibly the Best O & D lines in the NFL in 2-3yrs. Best for 5-10ys.
*NOTE: I would sacrifice our #1 in 2014 to recover a 1st selection in 2013 to snag a QB. (Like Wilson. He should be the starter in 2014. Our O & D lines will turn 3yrs old that season and should be a welled oiled machine. I cannot imagine a more perfect scenario to then start your franchise QB!!
THIWR (Thats How I Would Roll)
not even close for what we'd have to give up to move up to three. In fact, it's so short it's ridiculous. That being said, I think Kalil is a stud and would consider giving up what is necessary, which is probably this year's 1st and 3rd, and next years first. The draft is deep enough in receivers and linebackers that I trust Nix to find some good guys in the middle rounds.
I think the Bills had every intention to resign Bell, but Peters unexpected injury artificially inflated Bell's worth, and the Bills balked at the higher numbers required to keep him. In an otherwise excellent offseason, I think that was a poor move on their part.
They are in a tough predicament now, with noone of the quality as last years number 9 pick, Tyron Smith, expected to be around when they pick at 10. The only way that the left tackle position is not an achilles heel for this team now is if they find a way to get Kalil. I don't think Hairston, or anyone aside from Kalil will be able to step in next season and play competent left tackle for the course of 16 games. Acquiring Kalil would turn a weakness into a real strength at a very important position. I don't know exactly what the price will be, but assuming it is not astronomical, I think the Bills should be highly aggressive in attempting to move up from 10 to 3.
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No. Five things could happen, though.
(1) Bell could re-sign and remain healthy for the second time in 5 seasons. (35% chance)
(2) Reiff (a RT most of his career) could slide to the Bills, and he or Hairston becomes a good LT (50%)
(3) Bills could move up and take Kalil. (5%)
(4) Bills could draft David DeCastro and move existing Guard Pears or Levitre to tackle. (5%)
(5) Bills could draft a 3rd or 4th round LT who makes good because of the line chemistry. (65%)
So the chances of drafting a 3rd or 4th round tackle being effective are greater than the chances of a 1st round pick being effective? Or are you just that down on Reiff in particular?
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I'd rather sign Manningham and draft pass rush in the first 2 rounds.
Then Hairston is your starting left tackle? That position absolutely needs to get addressed way before the third round. I'm hoping they could resign Bell for a reasonable number.
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He was at embassy last night won't b there tonight... Leave the guy be... Any bill I know liked buffalo because they can go to the grocery store without dealing with cameras etc
Florence seems to think otherwise. This is a free agency visit with cameras, drama, and intrigue, not Williams going to get milk from the store. Unless he is a buzzkill, he should get a kick out of it. Having a great rabid fanbase is one thing this city has to offer. There is no reason to shy away from it.
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Embassy. For what it's worth, this is a Drayton Florence tweet. He seems to think it'd be a good idea for Bills nation to show their support. I think, if done tastefully, it could make Williams feel good to see a nice little crowd of 50-100 people cheering for him outside his hotel. Anyone in? I live live pretty close and would go down with my fiancee, her friend, and dog if anyone else is interested.
Also,someone seemed sure he was staying at the Hyatt. Can anyone confirm his whereabouts? Florence seems to think he's at the Embassy.
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Everyone is stressing about Tennessee, a middling team from a small market with absolutely no football tradition. Neither do they have the interior tackles we have to take attention off of Williams. Would Williams want to hear their sales pitch? Sure, why not? But, to think it's a guarantee he would pick Tennessee over Buffalo seems unduly paranoid, even by Buffalo standards.
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Jackson has said very publicly that Nix promised him a new contract during this off season. If that should fail to happen I think the resentment would be very high and not just from Freddie but from others on the team, and likely a few fans as well.
I agree with you in principle, but Freddy has to be reasonable as well. Over the course of the next three years, I think we will start to see Freddy become more of a role player as CJ continues to develop and Freddy continues to age. I think that transition may happen sooner rather than later, though Freddy has made a career of defying the odds and exceeding expectations.
Even if Freddy's production begins to decline, he provides intangibles and is an excellent leader and person. I have no problem with rewarding Freddy even with the uncertainty of his future role with the team... within reason. It cannot be at the expense of locking up Byrd, Levitre, and hopefully Wood if he recovers from injury as the core of the team, all coming up on their second contracts. Something along the lines of a two year extension, which locks him up for 3 years, where he makes about 4 million per with most or all of the money guaranteed would seem to be fair for both sides. I'd throw in a couple million more per year for incentives, such as surpassing 1,000 yards or scoring 10 touchdowns or more.
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If you look at the article again, he actually breaks up the quote and puts the last part first to make it seem like Nix is contradicting himself, which is even more misleading than leaving out that part of the quote altogether.
Good analysis on your part. That really is a piece of shameful journalism. Of course, I still highly concerned that the basic premise of the article, that the Bills will do no better than break even in free agency, will be true. But, he completely distorts Nix's words to arrive at that conclusion.
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Couple interesting tidbits that give me a little pause for optimism. One is a somewhat random tweet from Johnson.
The other was a Russ Brandon direct response to a question posed to him by Bulldog on WGR today. When asked whether Johnson might be franchised, Brandon responded by stating that the franchise tag was an asset available to all team... and that the team is focused upon making Johnson a Bill. While the first part of his answer is vague, it certainly is not negative or dismissive of the idea.
Further, Brandon is a pretty intelligent guy who seems like he has his finger upon the pulse of the community. I think he realizes the team's credibility, already suspect, will take a massive hit if the supposedly rebuilding team doesn't lock up their prized homegrown product. I think he realizes that the season ticket sales will reflect accordingly. My guess is that the deal gets done.
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That's The AP story. Just filed an extended version with more details. Should be out shortly.
gotta run.
jw
The fact that they can be far apart shows me that, predictably, the price has gone up. It's unlikely the Bills went back to Johnson with the same offer he rejected during the season, because that would just be insulting and Johnson's agent probably would not have counter-offered.
The Bills have allowed Johnson to have all the leverage, and they now probably want a do-over on the original offer and are offering Johnson what he initially desired. Of course, Johnson has no financial incentive to take that offer. The fact that they couldn't lock up their young talent at a bargain rate means they have already messed this one up, no matter how things shake out. For the Bills to lose Johnson, it would be a colossal failure that will seriously alienate their fan base. It would reinforce the notion that they are a farm team for the rest of the league, the NFL equivalent of the Kansas City Royals.
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Wow! Nix would be a pinball wizard if he can pull this one off.
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FOLKS!!
It's January!!
FA BEGINS MARCH 13...46 DAYS!!
6 WEEKS!!
And if you look at the last 9 years as precedent, we have let our good players walk to the detriment of our franchise, with almost no exceptions. But hey, we should feel confident that the Bills know what they are doing. I mean, a lot of other franchise haven't made the playoffs in the past 12 years either.
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The beauty of picking 10th is that the Bills have enough needs that they should be able to draft a player who can make a DIFFERENCE right away. Picking a tackle at 10 does not guarantee that we will see a difference in tackle play. We had 2 lts that did a pretty good job. We need your first round guy to be an upgrade week one. So, if they can get a reasonable deal done with Bell they should.
I might be in the minority in this, but I think they are pretty much set at the tackle position. Even this year, when both Hairston and Bell were beset by injuries, the tackle spots held up fine. With a little better health, the tackle position could be a real strength, as I think Bell could be a top tier tackle when healthy. The best use of resources would be for the Bills to resign Bell, and either sign a mid-priced free agent or draft a 3 or 4th round tackle prospect.
I think relinquishing Bell while drafting Rieff or Martin, at least for the short term, would only be a lateral move for the franchise, and that is the same reasoning why I would be deadset on letting SJ walk and then drafting Floyd or Jeffrey.
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I do love when a very talented team underachieves and then goes back up and it's proof of one year rebuilds. Next year: San diego!
Of the one year rebuilds- I tend to see a lot of these good underachievers and then a lot of mortgage the future for 1-2 seasons. Rarely does a bad team get good without a process.
And the bengals are really spending big on both their scouts. Or do they have 3 people in the department these days?
They have drafted unbelievably well the past few years. Where we got Torell Troup, the Bengals got Geno Atkins in a later round. Where we got Carrington, they got Michael Johnson in a later round. They got Mauluga. That's not even considering Green and Dalton. The Bengals have stockpiled young talent and hit on their picks. For anyone to say otherwise is delusional. And they did rebuild in one year. Losing the starting QB and his top wide receivers is a rebuild.
As for Buffalo, while our 2011 draft looks promising, the 2010 one was a black hole. An empty draft class will haunt a team for years.
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It's because there are soooooo many out there. Puts Stevie in a bit of perspective, no?
The key isn't getting Stevie, it's getting the right ones at the right price. Stevie might be that guy, but theres A LOT of options that are as talented if not more
If the Bills have that mentality, then they will be the last ones standing at the dance. Receivers aren't lined up to come to Buffalo so that Ryan Fitzpatrick can throw them 12 yard square ins all year.
Wilson and his band of idiots have to realize that Buffalo is one of the least desirable destinations in the league, due in large part to their own incompetence. If the Bills and Johnson were a couple, the Bills would be the ugly overweight guy that began to date the real pretty girl before she started to blossom. While the pretty girl has a couple shortcomings, like she occasionally stays out all night or flirts with other dudes, the guy would be wise to hang onto her, because she is the best he will get. To think that other really pretty and nice girls would be lining up for his services should he cut ties with her would be delusional. Instead, he could expect maybe a couple fat girls to catch him on the rebound.
Similarly, if the Bills were to cut ties with Stevie, they can expect to be saddled with the likes of David Clowney and Derek Hagan. The Dwayne Bowe's and even the Laurent Robinson will find more attractive suitors.
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Who can resist the smell of the tailgate and the sound a beer makes when its opened? Then the march to RWS with hope brimming? Oh yeah, I'll be there.
PTR
While I live for tailgates, I'm not going to lose sight of the big picture. If the Bills let Johnson walk and don't make any serious moves to improve, I'm not going to financially support a team that doesn't spend the necessary finances to get better. By getting seasons again, I'd feel as if I'm just enabling the Bills to continue with this losing culture.
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figureheads and puppets.
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their cheapness is well known and it is not about to change. My point was that Nix has to maximize what he can get out of the budget he's given. He cannot afford to overpay, especially for less than elite talent.
Not resigning Johnson for slightly below market rate completely undermines the credibility of the franchise. Nix has stated he is building the team through the draft. Johnson is a shining example of how a team can build through the draft. When 7th rounders become 1,000 yard receivers, it goes to show that it is possible to build a team through the draft. But, how can you build a team through the draft when you let your successful draftees walk after their first contract??
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Whatever the Bills do is the wrong thing. They let Whitner walk? Mistake. They extend Lee Evans? Overpaid. Sign Fitz? Too early and he sucks. I'm sure the Bills will be wrong for signing/not signing Johnson as well.
PTR
Not everything. But most things. The proof is them being the only 1 of 32 league teams not to make the playoffs for 12 years in a row.
Johnson was already factoring in a hometown discount asking for 7.5. For the Bills to not realize that and try to get it done then was a huge mistake. Johnson will now hit the market after Sunday with back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons. He has no financial incentive to sign with the Bills at this point at the exclusion of hearing other offers. With an ever-increasing salary cap, some team will almost definitely offer him more than 7.5 in the initial spending spree of free agency.
Johnson is not Donte Whitner or even Paul Poslusny, who made out very well on the open market. Johnson has had two straight very successful seasons in which he hit the benchmark for wide receivers with over 1,000 yards. He is, and will continue to be, productive. For Buffalo to allow it to get to this point, when 7.5 would have definitely got it done and they could have probably got him down to 7, is a huge mistake. I
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It means our owner is a doddering idiot. I know it's not the politically correct thing to say, but this team is headed to football oblivion until Ralph.... sells the team. Are we supposed to be rooting for eternal life for Ralph at the expense of the viability of our franchise which means so much to ourselves, our families, and our friends??
Runners? Who is the second best back behind Trent Richardson, because that is who Ralph is targeting right now.
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Gronk missed his entire senior eason with a back injury. And no one thought enough of him to take him with the first 41 picks in the draft.
What twisted logic that is. Because no-one else drafted Gronk in the top 41 picks, that demonstrates he is the 42nd best player in the draft. And because Troup was picked 41st, that is proof that he is the 41st best player in the draft.
The draft is about hits and misses. Gronk was a huge steal. Troup is both a reach and a disaster of a pick. And the Bills shouldn't necessarily be persecuted because they didn't draft Gronkowski. But, there were multiple blue chip prospects still available at the time. The three I was looking for at the time were Claussen (mea culpa), Cody, and Linval Joseph. Cody was an ideal 3-4 nose tackle with excellent size and pedigree. Joseph was the first team Conference USA D-tackle, meaning he outplayed Troup within his own Conference. To follow that up, Joseph blew scouts away at the combine with his speed and strength. Nix went with Troup, a middling prospect with chronic back problems.
Joseph is excelling with the Giants, while Troup is ineffective the little time he is healthy. Who saw that coming?? Nix went into that draft trying to prove he knew something others didn't by making picks that were off the grid, similar to Levy reaching for Whitner and McCargo. Nix is an embarassment of a GM. But hey, he makes Ralph 'comfortable.'
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You mean besides James Hardy?
I'm willing to bet 99% of the posters here had never heard of Gronk last draft. Its pretty easy now to say we should have drafted him. If we knew then what we know now, we would have used our 1st rounder on him.
Actually, Gronk was a highly touted prospect. Between that and him being a lpcal kid, a lot of people knew about him. Troup, on the other hand, was an obscure prospect.
Bills war room ALERT: It looks like they're celebrating something
in The Stadium Wall Archives
Posted
Here's the obligatory... "Ralph and Buddy just saved a bunch of money on their car insurance" post.